2018 Summer Game Plan

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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:37 pm

longtimefan wrote:https://pittsburghhockeynow.com/jarry-is-prime-offer-sheet-candidate-are-offers-allowed/

I disagree with Kingerski's premise that Jarry is a prime target for an offer sheet. Lots of holes in his argument, not the least of which is nobody is going to do it. Jarry is an interesting case though.

Prior to 2017-18, Jarry, 23, played in just one NHL game. Last season, he learned quickly on the job. He posted a slightly higher save percentage (.908) than starter Matt Murray (.907) and a lower goals against average (2.77) than Murray (2.92). Jarry also posted a well above average quality save percentage (.609). The league average is .530. Last season, Murray posted a .422 QS and a .553 in 2016-17.

Jarry’s future is fast approaching. The 6-foot-2, 194-pound netminder is athletic yet positionally sound. When he is on his game, he plays like a large goaltender and takes away the net from shooters.

Backup goalies such as Louis Domingue, Keith Kinkaid, Robin Lehner and even Petr Mrazek will make between $1.1 and $1.5 million this season. Other backups such as Darcy Kuemper, Aaron Dell, and Michael Condon, will make between $1.8 and $2.4 million.


It's a general assumption that DeSmith will be the backup, and Jarry will go to WBS to play. That's great. But you have to get him under contract. According to CapFriendly, he was tendered $715K, which is $40K more than DeSmith. Not much, but on a cap team, every dollar is precious. When you look at the comparables Kingerski cited, you can make a case that Jarry would warrant a higher salary, and can certainly make a case for a one way deal.

Here's his dilemma. If he asks for a higher salary, it would be more difficult for him to stick with the team, and more of a burden if he is called up. Also more likely to be sent back, no matter his performance, for cap reasons. The problem is, even without the cap hit situation, Jarry would have to be head and shoulders better than DeSmith to win the job, because they prefer he play. The issue there is, if he signs a two way contract, he's getting penalized major dollars in his pocket, even though he's considered the more valuable commodity. Such is life in the NHL.

I haven't given much thought to Jarry signing. He's an RFA without arbitration rights. He doesn't have much leverage. But he's the only guy not under contract. It's not my money, but I'm wondering if he may be looking for a one way deal? For a friendly cap hit, perhaps league minimum or the $715K QO. That way he still gets NHL money, and isn't penalized for developing. There's also no reason not to keep him around if he's the better option.

The kid hasn't proven much, partly because he's not had much of a chance. But he's 23, and matches up even now with some of the guys mentioned. It could be the kid wants reassurances. He wants a chance to play in the NHL, and wants to know if he'll get that here. Otherwise, he may want to move on. Would you give him a one way deal?

I disagreed with Dan as well. Offer sheets are rare, and if you look at the last 6-10 offer sheets, they aren't for potential, unproven players. O'Reilly, Shea Web, Ryan Sutter, Dustin Penner (when he was decent) were the last offer sheets.....younger guys already established in the league. Jarry doesn't fit that mold, and if a team is going to put together an offer high enough for the Penguins not to match, then said team is almost guaranteed to be overpaying for the player.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Daniel on Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:26 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Nice article from Jesse on how 2nd round pick Filip Hallander was a great draft choice. A few highlights:

- Calls him a cross between Hagelin and Hornqvist
- Had 9 goals, 11 assists in 40 games. While that may seem low, he was one of youngest players on the team. Age adjusted scoring had him as the 25th highest scorer in the draft. His 20 points in 40 games was the highest points pace for anyone drafted out of the Allsvenskan league in the last 7 years.
- Knee injury kept him from World Juniors, and that is main reason he fell out of 1st round.

https://theathletic.com/437281/2018/07/19/marshall-filip-hallander-was-worth-the-trade/


By my estimate, the Penguins selected two first-round level talents without an actual first-round pick in this year’s NHL entry draft.

I love that the Pens get so much value without having a 1st round pick. I think the Pens farm system is underrated and that no team's farm system can handle having almost a dozen prospects coming up over a 2-3 year period without a drop off in farm system quality.

It may be slightly underrated, but at the same time, they really have no bonafide top 6 talent in terms of prospects, except for Sprong......and they have no bonafide possible top pairing defensemen in the system, except for Addison. That's not very much depth. The Penguins have a lot of potential top 9 guys, or 2nd/3rd line tweener guys (your Rust, Hagelin, ZAR types), but they lack any type of top end talent. Cost of being a playoff team that goes deep year after year.

The Penguins have done well though getting guys who fall in the draft for different reasons (Sprong...attitude, Addison....size, Hallander....injury) as well as converting on the college UFA route with guys like Sheary, ZAR, and Prow.

It's impossible to rate their system an A, but I'd say mid B to C+ is probably more accurate.


I would also say a B or a C+, but everywhere I've seen states worse. I think you want a team that has mostly top 9 guys and 1 or 2 superstars. While there isn't much depth to replace Crosby/Malkin/Letang, those types of players will start their NHL careers the year they're draft. I think if you have a team of Rust's and Guenztel's and Maatta's, you're one or two lottery picks away from contending.

The team will crash when Malkin and Crosby retire, it's just a question of how long the transition is. If they build top 9 guys well, it's a quick one. If they don't, they end up like Detroit, who is still in denial that they need to rebuild and keep signing guys like Vanek and Daley.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Skatingpen on Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:50 pm

Thoughts on this?

https://pens.pe/2Nu6jJb
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:01 pm

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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby ville5 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:55 pm

Skatingpen wrote:Thoughts on this?

https://pens.pe/2Nu6jJb

Poor journalism. First paragraph says they've signed Grant to a one year deal.
The second paragraph which is actually just a sentence says,
"The deal has an average annual value of $650,000." :lol:
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby longtimefan on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:11 pm

http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/player/6710/stats
https://pittsburghhockeynow.com/penguin ... year-deal/

The Pittsburgh Penguins added 28-year-old bottom line left winger Derek Grant, Thursday. The former Anaheim Duck signed a one-year deal worth $650,000, according to the Penguins press release.

In 2017-18, Grant had a career year with the Ducks. He scored his first career NHL goal after 92 games, on Oct. 20. Last season, Grant totaled 12 goals and 12 assists while playing fourth-line, left wing duty. He also filled in as the Ducks top line center when both Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kessler were injured through much of November. Grants scored six points (2g, 4a) in November, and the Ducks struggled to a 5-6-3 record.

Three of Grant’s 12 goals were power-play markers. He also averaged 49 seconds per game, shorthanded and won 53 percent of his faceoffs.


He's a depth signing. He'll compete with Hayes for a roster spot. If they lose one of them on waivers, so be it. Being 28 years old and signing for less than half of what Rowney received from his former employer tells you something. It does give them more flexibility to make a deal, if something comes up. But I don't think he really moves the needle at all. If he ends up getting $650K to play at WBS, so be it. JR wants depth, especially at center. He's more of a Josh Jooris replacement. And makes it a lot tougher for Hayes to make the team.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby DelPen on Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:00 am

People are reading into Rutherford’s comments about not signing Grant for the AHL a little too much. I don’t think his intent is ever to sign a guy who he doesn’t think isn’t NHL capable otherwise WBS would be announcing the signing.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby ville5 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:45 am

Im the Trib, GMJR said he didn't sign Grant with the intention to trade anyone. He said there's currently nothing in the works.
He also said Jarry negotiations are ongoing. Said they will run their course shortly.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:02 am

So with the Derek Grant signing here is my stab at the opening night roster assuming no other changes/trades:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/808687

Seems to have potential scoring threat on each wing. I'm actually feeling good about this roster.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby thehockeyguru on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:16 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So with the Derek Grant signing here is my stab at the opening night roster assuming no other changes/trades:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/808687

Seems to have potential scoring threat on each wing. I'm actually feeling good about this roster.


If you are playing Brassard on LW I'd play Kessel with him and Malkin. Then have Hagelin Sheahan and Sprong on the 3rd line.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Jim on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:25 am

DelPen wrote:People are reading into Rutherford’s comments about not signing Grant for the AHL a little too much. I don’t think his intent is ever to sign a guy who he doesn’t think isn’t NHL capable otherwise WBS would be announcing the signing.


Similar to when Rutherford said that Sprong will be in the NHL next year and everyone over reacted. Sprong isn't waiver exempt next year, AHL is not really an option. It wasn't far off from something like, "Water is wet" yet a lot of people thought that he said something groundbreaking.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby thehockeyguru on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:29 pm

I just find it hard to believe that the Pens are going to play Brassard at LW. You have a guy who you brought in specifically to play 3C so that Sheahan can play 4C. I just don't know why you would mess with that.

There is absolutely no reason to mess with: Guentzel - Crosby - Hornqvist.
Playing Hagelin with Malkin and Kessel provides balance: Hagelin - Malkin - Kessel
Simon and get guys the puck and can work on the boards: Simon - Brassard - Sprong
Let the remaing guys battle for spots but I see: Cullen - Sheahan - Rust
Extras: Grant / Hayes
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Jim on Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:17 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:I just find it hard to believe that the Pens are going to play Brassard at LW. You have a guy who you brought in specifically to play 3C so that Sheahan can play 4C. I just don't know why you would mess with that.


but... the Pens didn't win the Cup...
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby LimerickPensFan on Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:36 pm

Jim wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:I just find it hard to believe that the Pens are going to play Brassard at LW. You have a guy who you brought in specifically to play 3C so that Sheahan can play 4C. I just don't know why you would mess with that.


but... the Pens didn't win the Cup...

Let me guess, you're unhappy when the Pens only win a game by one goal, right?
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby thehockeyguru on Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:18 pm

Jim wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:I just find it hard to believe that the Pens are going to play Brassard at LW. You have a guy who you brought in specifically to play 3C so that Sheahan can play 4C. I just don't know why you would mess with that.


but... the Pens didn't win the Cup...


Three main factors for that

1. Letang was awful
2. Phil was hurt
3. Murray was outplayed

I think 2 and 3 work themselves out. I'm not sure on 1, but if he sucks next season IMO we are stuck with him.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby stonewizard51 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:43 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
Jim wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:I just find it hard to believe that the Pens are going to play Brassard at LW. You have a guy who you brought in specifically to play 3C so that Sheahan can play 4C. I just don't know why you would mess with that.


but... the Pens didn't win the Cup...


Three main factors for that

1. Letang was awful
2. Phil was hurt
3. Murray was outplayed

I think 2 and 3 work themselves out. I'm not sure on 1, but if he sucks next season IMO we are stuck with him.

Yeah but IMHO we're stuck with him regardless. I can't see anyone short of the Yotes wanting that salary cap addition for someone who, even tho he might have a good year this year, has that for a track record.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Jim on Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:48 pm

It was sarcasm directed at the over reaction of the sheep and their need to change everything... at their complete lack of logic.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby LimerickPensFan on Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:04 pm

Jim wrote:It was sarcasm directed at the over reaction of the sheep and their need to change everything... at their complete lack of logic.

I was wondering...
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Maestro on Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:20 pm

My sources tell me they may try Brassard at back-up goaltender.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby thehockeyguru on Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:48 pm

Maestro wrote:My sources tell me they may try Brassard at back-up goaltender.


Can't be worse than Niemi
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby brwi on Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:32 pm

Maestro wrote:My sources tell me they may try Brassard at back-up goaltender.

:lol: :thumb:
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby stonewizard51 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:08 am

Jim wrote:It was sarcasm directed at the over reaction of the sheep and their need to change everything... at their complete lack of logic.

I wasn't referring to you tho. Sorry if there was confusion. I definitely got the sarcasm. :thumb: I was agreeing to the fact Letang was horrible and the Pens were, regardless of how he plays this season, most likely stuck with him for the duration.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby RentedMule66 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:12 am

thehockeyguru wrote:
Jim wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:I just find it hard to believe that the Pens are going to play Brassard at LW. You have a guy who you brought in specifically to play 3C so that Sheahan can play 4C. I just don't know why you would mess with that.


but... the Pens didn't win the Cup...


Three main factors for that

1. Letang was awful
2. Phil was hurt
3. Murray was AWFUL

I think 2 and 3 work themselves out. I'm not sure on 1, but if he sucks next season IMO we are stuck with him.



Fixed
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby ville5 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:24 am

Dumba and Wild- 5 year, $6 million aav. Seems reasonable.
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Re: 2018 Summer Game Plan

Postby Maestro on Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:19 pm

With the Dumba signing maybe they try to move Zucker. But I think there remains some bad feelings with Minn over last years deadline.
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