Red Line Reports: Draft Break Down

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Postby Mad City Mike on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:09 pm

Daniel wrote:I think Salmonsson will be a good scorer.


Would that be the same Johannes Salmonsson who has 12 goals in 54 games as a 20-year-old junior? :roll:
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Postby Daniel on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:17 pm

Mad City Mike wrote:
Daniel wrote:I think Salmonsson will be a good scorer.


Would that be the same Johannes Salmonsson who has 12 goals in 54 games as a 20-year-old junior? :roll:


So this year is an indication of 100% of his talent in NA? It isn't possible that he perhaps has had a bad year and the draft day analysis is the correct one? Nah, 20 year olds don't struggle. :roll:
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Postby Bowser on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:24 pm

Salmonsson is a slightly better version of Koltsov. I think he has the talent to be a quality 2nd-3rd line winger in the NHL but he needs to prove he can put the puck in the net.
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Postby Daniel on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:28 pm

Bowser wrote:Salmonsson is a slightly better version of Koltsov. I think he has the talent to be a quality 2nd-3rd line winger in the NHL but he needs to prove he can put the puck in the net.


Maybe, maybe not. I just know that dismissing a 20 year old because of a bad season is ludacris.

There was enough good press from scouts that I would rather believe there analysis than stats in his first year in NA.
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Postby Bowser on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:49 pm

Daniel - During camp, I was very impressed by his skills. He was skating hard, checking, making good reads on D, crisp accurate passes and some nice goals. I'm guessing he's trying to learn the fundamental style of North American hockey in Spokane so I'm not worried about him not making the NHL.

He'll get his shot like Koltsov and if he can prove to tickle the twine, he'll be a legit 1st-2nd liner. Until then, I think its safe to say, he's more in the 2nd-3rd line role.
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Postby Daniel on Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:58 pm

There is nothing wrong with having a bunch of 2nd/3rd liners to compliment Malkin/Crosby. I can see Samuelsson scoring 18-20 goals per year. I never claimed that he would be an elite scorer. As a matter of fact, I said the Pens don't have an elite scorer. I just don't have a problem with that.

NJ has some people who can score, but they don't have league leaders in scoring. Look at there scorers when they won the cup a couple of years ago. They had no one over 28 goals and 3 over 20. Of course, they had a great defense, but I think you understand my point. In the future, the Pens may very well have 5-6 players who can score 18-20 goal with Malkin, Crosby, Samuelsson, Filewich (based on this boards optimism in training camp), Armstrong and Christenson. That doesn't include the player they get this year (assuming it is Kessel/Toews) and Malone, Surovy and Ouellet.

In the future, I think the Pens will be much more balanced than their run in the 90s.
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:03 pm

Daniel wrote:NJ has some people who can score, but they don't have league leaders in scoring. Look at there scorers when they won the cup a couple of years ago. They had no one over 28 goals and 3 over 20. Of course, they had a great defense, but I think you understand my point.


Now there's a great thread for some point in the future, were the Devils defenses 'Great', or did they just take advantage of a blind spot the league seemed to develop with regard the hooking and holding rules for about a decade?
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Postby Jesse on Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:25 pm

I think Mark Mitera is better than a lot of people are giving him credit for. Asst. Coach of Michigan hockey has gone on record saying that Mitera is that fastest skater on the team.... in a straight line. Obviously, side to side movement is more important for a defenseman, but the kid can skate. I'm not sure what his offensive stats are, but he's a quiet guy that can tie up star players from the other team. Kinda unnoticed. That happens when you play on a team with another defensive star on it, ask Kristopher Letang.

Mitera might be a steal. I wouldn't take him in the top five, but someone is going to end up with a good defensive prospect in their system.
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Postby The Snapshot on Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:34 pm

ziggystardust wrote:
netwolf wrote:
ziggystardust wrote:I don't think you need elite goal scorers to win.


With the roster the Pens have and the guys presently in their system, I would settle for a decent goal scorer or even a couple of average ones. :?



lol.

Sid, Malkin, Armstrong, Ouellet, Christensen, Rita...
that is actually a ton of talent and plenty of offensive firepower.

Before you say anything about me jumping on the Rita bang-wagon already (if there even is one) I think I should say that the guy has always had boat-loads of ability. Now that he's away from Mac and the Oil, I think he will really show it. He's been nothing short of amazing these past two games with Sid.


I love what I've seen from Rita, right up until the puck is supposed to go in the net. He needs to finish, but he has been very impressive with his speed and strength.

I don't know if I would call him a goal-scorer though, not yet.
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Postby Draftnik on Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:41 pm

ziggystardust wrote:and the truth shall set you free!


NJ had a HOF goalie on the ice at all times and a HOF dman (Niedermayer &/or Stevens) on the ice most times during all of their Cups. They also played in an era that promoted a defensive trap style of hockey that played into their strength of having maybe the best puck-handling goalie in the history of the NHL.

I don't think they are the classic case study the Pens are set to follow with their organIzation as currently constructed.
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Postby Daniel on Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:10 pm

Draftnik wrote:
ziggystardust wrote:and the truth shall set you free!


NJ had a HOF goalie on the ice at all times and a HOF dman (Niedermayer &/or Stevens) on the ice most times during all of their Cups. They also played in an era that promoted a defensive trap style of hockey that played into their strength of having maybe the best puck-handling goalie in the history of the NHL.

I don't think they are the classic case study the Pens are set to follow with their organIzation as currently constructed.


I did mention that they had a great defense, but the point remains. You need balance, not starpower, to win the Cup. I think the Pens will have enough balance to win the Cup in a few years.

I also think that Fleury will be every bit as good as Brodeur in a few years. Whether the Pens get Niedermeyer/Stevens remains to be seen.

Of course, getting a new franchise from the owner on down will help this out a lot. :D
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:19 pm

Daniel wrote:I also think that Fleury will be every bit as good as Brodeur in a few years.


Does that means you're saying that MAF will be the best goalie in the league, because that's exactly what marty's been the last three years or so.

(Before you bring up 'Bulin et al., remember we're talking consistancy here, not flare seasons)
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Postby Draftnik on Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:25 pm

Daniel wrote:I did mention that they had a great defense, but the point remains. You need balance, not starpower, to win the Cup. I think the Pens will have enough balance to win the Cup in a few years.

I also think that Fleury will be every bit as good as Brodeur in a few years. Whether the Pens get Niedermeyer/Stevens remains to be seen.

Of course, getting a new franchise from the owner on down will help this out a lot. :D



There are many ways to construct a Cup winner. Tampa had a lineup with young skilled star Fs and an slightly above average G that got hot for the playoffs. The NHL is trying to shift the emphasis more to skilled players with the new rules interpretation, so adding star Fs is not a bad thing. Brodeur, Niedermayer, and Stevens are also mega stars by any definition.

The Pens have a nice crop of defensive prospects, but a dearth of goal scoring wingers. The 03 Devs also had Elias, Nieuwendyk(C), Friesen, and Gionta who all scored 30+ goals at various times in their careers. They were not bankrupt from a goal scoring perspective.

The Devils also had a fanatical adherence to a strict defensive system. That as much as their HOF G and Dmen was responsible for their Cups. It is not a devotion that is easy to replicate for such a prolonged period of time as the Devs run at the top.
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Postby Daniel on Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:37 pm

You make a good point about the new NHL and how it goes more towards skilled players.

The Pens do have a dearth of elite goal scorers. However, I think they have several good goal scorers in the system. I also think that Malkin and Crosby (especially Malkin) will make a good goal scorer above average.

I don't disagree that the Pens should get an elite scorer in the 2006 draft. I just think the current group with no added players will be a very good group in a few years. Imagine a very good group with an elite scorer?
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Postby Daniel on Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:40 pm

I have a feeling he will. Especially since you are talking about consistancy good goaltending. I think that as the Pens get better as a defensive group, Fluery's numbers will be better.

I might be overly optimistic about the Pens youth, but I am very excited to see what the future for this franchise brings. I think the Pens have an exceptional group that will grow up together and hit there primes together to be an amazing unit.
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Mar 16, 2006 9:10 am

ziggystardust wrote: If you draft a #1 guy like Johnson, who by all accounts, can do it all - play the body, play the angles, play the puck, play the point and play 28 minutes a game - the effect you make on the defense is huge.


How quickly do you think he can become a productive D-Man in the NHL?

Certainly not 2006-7. What do you do for the next year or two? Besides, with this organizations record for (not) developing talent at the AHL level, are you even sure he wouldn't be the next Orpik? (No slam to a guy who is still tweeking his game, but he's fallen far short of expectations that existed when he was drafted)

It's not often that I advocate trading a top pick, but CP should atleast pick up the phone and make some calls, there just might be a team out there willing to part with a young existing NHL caliber D-Man and a couple of lower round picks, for a shot at Kessel.
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Postby borohcky9 on Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:17 am

I cant believe the negativity towards Whitney is still continuing.

He came up and played awesome for a little,and we actually won a couple games, then trailed off alot when they started losing again.

He has played quite bad at times, but he is a rookie.

Now we have won a few games, and the best two d-men on the ice are Gonchar and Whitney. Whitney is playing great position, and actually taking chances on offense.

Seriously, what do you expect from a rookie defensemen?

Even if we do draft Johnson, when he comes in and doesnt perform up to par in his first season you will all be saying these same things again.
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Postby Mad City Mike on Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:18 am

ExPatriatePen wrote:How quickly do you think he can become a productive D-Man in the NHL?

Certainly not 2006-7. What do you do for the next year or two? Besides, with this organizations record for (not) developing talent at the AHL level, are you even sure he wouldn't be the next Orpik? (No slam to a guy who is still tweeking his game, but he's fallen far short of expectations that existed when he was drafted)

It's not often that I advocate trading a top pick, but CP should atleast pick up the phone and make some calls, there just might be a team out there willing to part with a young existing NHL caliber D-Man and a couple of lower round picks, for a shot at Kessel.


The amount if time it will take him to develop is immaterial. If you don't trade the pick, then you simply must take the best player available. Not the best player now, but the best player in the long run. If you go with the "now" philosophy, no goalie or d-man would ever be taken early, because forwards are almost always more likely to be closer to being ready for the NHL. It is tempting to say, "we need this or this in the next year or two," but with a top pick I don't think you can do it that way. If Johnson is deemed the best player available, you take him and then be patient as he develops. If Kessel is deemed the best, fine, take him.

I don't disagree that they should shop the pick, though. The return would have to be either a top 2 defenseman or a top 3 forward in the 24-26 year old range. I don't know if anyone will give that up, but that's what I would want.
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Mar 16, 2006 10:50 am

Mad City Mike wrote:The amount if time it will take him to develop is immaterial.


Not in the context of Trade/Draft. I'm not saying you base the 'pick' (Kessel or Johnson - Forward or D-Man) on how quickly that pick can contribute, but rather, that a trade for an NHL quality 'Top two' D-Man (With lower round picks) would provide a faster return than either draft pick.

Mad City Mike wrote: If you don't trade the pick, then you simply must take the best player available. Not the best player now, but the best player in the long run.


Agreed, in ANY sport, you never pass on the BAA to fill a specific need. You fill the need through trades or free-agency if you have to instead.

Mad City Mike wrote:I don't disagree that they should shop the pick, though. The return would have to be either a top 2 defenseman or a top 3 forward in the 24-26 year old range. I don't know if anyone will give that up, but that's what I would want.


If we could find a GM willing to make that trade, it would be wonderful. As has been stated around here more than a couple times, the Pens are going to be in serious trouble in 2008 and beyond if MAF, Malkin, Crosby, and a 2006 #1 or #2 all become stars in the league.

That's a great problem to have though, it's far better than a sharp stick in the eye.
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Postby Mad City Mike on Thu Mar 16, 2006 11:04 am

ExPatriatePen wrote:
Mad City Mike wrote:I don't disagree that they should shop the pick, though. The return would have to be either a top 2 defenseman or a top 3 forward in the 24-26 year old range. I don't know if anyone will give that up, but that's what I would want.


If we could find a GM willing to make that trade, it would be wonderful.


Too bad Milbury is no longer a GM. He was always the first person I thought of if I needed to fleece another GM. Then again, there might be a window of opportunity if Boston hires CP :lol: .
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Mar 16, 2006 11:23 am

Mad City Mike wrote:Too bad Milbury is no longer a GM. He was always the first person I thought of if I needed to fleece another GM. Then again, there might be a window of opportunity if Boston hires CP :lol: .


Yeah it's a big joke up here on L.I. that Milbury resigned but he's still in the Job two months later because he can't find a suitable replacement... :roll:

Bowsers CP post the other day contained a fact I'd forgotten about the Zalapski / Francis deal with Hartford. EJ was the GM up there? Then he took a job with the Pens!

Maybe the Pens can move CP to a Bowman style 'Player Personnel' position, talk another good GM into coming to the Pens next year (like Buffalo's Darcy Regier), then make a trade with that him for his best players :-)
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Postby MrKnowNothing on Thu Mar 16, 2006 3:56 pm

If/when Whitney's game from the AHL completely transfers to the NHL, he wil be a #1 defenseman, you can write that down.

On trading the pick, I think it is a good idea if you get an impact player who will step in right now, but I doubt that happens. The teams who have those kinds of players probably arent going to be willing to trade them, especially in a salary cap era. We have never really seen many trades involving a high pick going one way and just a good player going the other way. Usually it is a team moving up a little bit in the draft.

If the Pens could get a good player, I'd probably do it. If not, just go with the BPA. You can always make a trade later down the line. The draft is all about getting the best assets you can. It's the GMs job to manage those assets.
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Kessel on TV now

Postby Ironhorse on Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:08 pm

Kessel and company on TV now
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Postby Pitts on Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:29 pm

ExPatriatePen wrote:Bowsers CP post the other day contained a fact I'd forgotten about the Zalapski / Francis deal with Hartford. EJ was the GM up there? Then he took a job with the Pens.

Let me clarify that even more for you: EJ was a player for the Pens, took management position with them after he retired from playing, then went to Hartford to be the GM where he made that famous trade with the Pens...then came back to work for the Pens!!!
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Postby netwolf on Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:50 pm

Pitts wrote:Let me clarify that even more for you: EJ was a player for the Pens, took management position with them after he retired from playing, then went to Hartford to be the GM where he made that famous trade with the Pens...then came back to work for the Pens!!!


Tell me that's not stright outta pro wrestling...
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