NHL Lottery draft article

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NHL Lottery draft article

Postby Reilly on Thu Mar 23, 2006 1:56 am

The odds of the last place team, in this case Pittsburgh, winning the lottery are 25 per cent.



The next team, say St. Louis, would have an 18.8 per cent chance, followed by Chicago at 14.2 per cent, Washington at 10.7 per cent and Columbus at 8.1 per cent.



Now, there is a 75 per cent chance some team other than Pittsburgh wins the lottery, but it's about 50-50 whether the team that wins it is in the bottom five and, therefore, able to knock Pittsburgh from the No. 1 spot.


http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/bob_mckenzie.asp
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Re: NHL Lottery draft article

Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Mar 23, 2006 7:40 am

Reilly wrote:The odds of the last place team, in this case Pittsburgh, winning the lottery are 25 per cent.



The next team, say St. Louis, would have an 18.8 per cent chance, followed by Chicago at 14.2 per cent, Washington at 10.7 per cent and Columbus at 8.1 per cent.



Now, there is a 75 per cent chance some team other than Pittsburgh wins the lottery, but it's about 50-50 whether the team that wins it is in the bottom five and, therefore, able to knock Pittsburgh from the No. 1 spot.


http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/bob_mckenzie.asp


Yes, but if they finish last, there's a 100% chance of them getting one of the top two picks. :-)
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Postby DelPen on Thu Mar 23, 2006 7:54 am

When you do all the math the odds are around 49% that the last place team retains the last pick.
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Postby Pitts on Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:39 am

DelPen wrote:When you do all the math the odds are around 49% that the last place team retains the last pick.


I was going to bring that up last night, but decided against it. Because non-playoff teams also have a chance to win the lottery. In which case, the last place team would retain the 1st overall pick. Because of that, the odds are a little higher for the last place team.
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