Two Horse Race

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Two Horse Race

Postby ExPatriatePen on Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:41 am

After last nights game it should be obvious to everyone that we don't want to be the Islanders. A franchise that finishes just out of the playoffs year after year and never gets much from their first round picks (DiPietro excluded) and yes I know that's as much Mike Milbury's fault as it is their finish.

Anyway... at this point the Pens are pretty much assured to finish in the bottom two. That would assure a Top Three pick. 'Hawks have 57 points with 11 games left and he Caps have 58 points with ten games left. The Pens have 50 points with 12 games left and have been playing .500 hockey over their last 10 games!

If the Pens finish the season out 6-6-0 that would give them 62 Points.

The Hawks would need to go worse than 3-8 to edge them out.
The Caps would need to go worse than 2-8.

While getting the Third pick in the draft isn't bad, I'd like to see the Pens get one of the top two. That would require finishing last.

The Blues have 53 points with 13 games left. They're only 1-7-2 in their last 10 games.

Assuming the Pens go 6-6-0 to close out the season, if the Blues go 4-8-1 they finish with the worst record.

And before anyone goes off on me about rooting against the Pens... Please.. they've been playing .500 hockey over the last ten games. They're going to be fine. I'm looking for more than a lousy 13 games.
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Postby Peter on Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:56 am

Wow the fact that you actually sat down and figured all of that out is really dedication.

We've had so many early draft picks that it doesn't matter at this point. If we keep getting good players, it''ll overstrain the budget at some point. YEs yes I know salary cap.
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Sat Apr 01, 2006 10:20 am

Peter wrote:Wow the fact that you actually sat down and figured all of that out is really dedication.

We've had so many early draft picks that it doesn't matter at this point. If we keep getting good players, it''ll overstrain the budget at some point. YEs yes I know salary cap.


The salary cap problems in subsequent years will take care of themselves. That would be a great problem to have.

I'd love to be sitting here four years from now with the best Goalie in the league, the best Forward in Crosby, a top three forward in Malkin, and two of the top 5 defensemen in the league.

At that point you trade someone for the a lottery pick AND a role player.

Not a bad problem to have.
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Postby DelPen on Sat Apr 01, 2006 11:12 am

It's on;y an 82 game season now, keep that in mind. To further expand we can finish at most with 68 points putting us one point behind Boston for 5th worst f they don't even win another game. If Columbus, Washington, Chicago and St. Louis all don't win another game we will be at best #1 and at worst #6. I want to be in the top 4 which requires a bottom 3 finish because there are 4 players (Johnson, Kessel, Towes and Staal) who are better than everyone else.

Some more numbers:

Columbus = 63/9 games left
Washington = 58/10 games left
Chicago = 57/10 games left
St. Louis = 53/10 games left

Chicago and Columbus play each other 3 times before the end of the season knocking one of them out of reach to make us at worst 4th. The Blues also play Chicago and Columbus one time each.
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Sat Apr 01, 2006 12:33 pm

DelPen wrote:It's on;y an 82 game season now, keep that in mind. To further expand we can finish at most with 68 points putting us one point behind Boston for 5th worst f they don't even win another game. If Columbus, Washington, Chicago and St. Louis all don't win another game we will be at best #1 and at worst #6. I want to be in the top 4 which requires a bottom 3 finish because there are 4 players (Johnson, Kessel, Towes and Staal) who are better than everyone else.

Some more numbers:

Columbus = 63/9 games left
Washington = 58/10 games left
Chicago = 57/10 games left
St. Louis = 53/10 games left

Chicago and Columbus play each other 3 times before the end of the season knocking one of them out of reach to make us at worst 4th. The Blues also play Chicago and Columbus one time each.


I stand corrected.. I was looking at the wrong column.

Pens have 9 games left, if they go ~.500 5-4 they'd have 60 points.
Blues have 10 games left. 3-7 would leave them with 59 points.
'Hawks have 10 games left 1-9 would leave them with 59 points.
Caps have 10 games left 0-9-1 would leave them with 59 points.
Columbus has 9 games left, losing all 9 (0-9) still gives them 63 points.

Thanks DelPen
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Postby ExPatriatePen on Fri Apr 07, 2006 5:36 am

Tomorrows Blues / Blue Jackets game is big for the Pens.

Both the Blues and BlueJackets have been eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for but pride.

LET'S GO BLUES!
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Postby Pitts on Fri Apr 07, 2006 10:29 am

Peter wrote:We've had so many early draft picks that it doesn't matter at this point. If we keep getting good players, it''ll overstrain the budget at some point.

It's called trading strength at that point.

What do you think you could get in exchange for a Kessel who's just had seasons of 20, 32 and 46 goals?

I call it 2 decent wingers and/or picks & prospects to rebuild behind the growing team. Because, at that point, hopefully you're picking near the end of the line in the draft order. So, you have to replenish via trade as well.
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Postby DelPen on Fri Apr 07, 2006 11:40 am

Pitts wrote:
Peter wrote:We've had so many early draft picks that it doesn't matter at this point. If we keep getting good players, it''ll overstrain the budget at some point.

It's called trading strength at that point.

What do you think you could get in exchange for a Kessel who's just had seasons of 20, 32 and 46 goals?

I call it 2 decent wingers and/or picks & prospects to rebuild behind the growing team. Because, at that point, hopefully you're picking near the end of the line in the draft order. So, you have to replenish via trade as well.


We'll see that soon with TB having to make a choice between Richards and Lecavalier. I'll take the hopfully good 3 years when we have all this talent and win a Cup like TB did even if it means a downtime of 2 or 3 years after.
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Postby conforto45 on Fri Apr 07, 2006 1:16 pm

have we ever had all of our first round picks on the ice together on 1 shift?

just a curious question i was thinking about
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