UFAs 2009

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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Kraftster on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:13 pm

Samsdog wrote:If there's one area where I think the Penguins can restock from within, it's on defense. That said, I don't feel that it's all that wise a move to dump the Whitney's that could well be the best defenseman in the system in two years. The Penguins can't keep paying 13 million on three defenseman and 5 million on a goalie, to be sure, but I would say that trimming the fat in one area (Gonchar) if at all possible is the best way to go. The team is definitely in serious cap trouble, and on defense and down the middle is where the largest chunks of salary are concentrated.
IMO, second-tier, high-upside signings like Afinogenov aren't horrible moves; realistically, his open market price may not rise above 3 million, and he could easily plug Satan's role. Now I know someones going to tell me he has suffered the last two years, he's in Ruff's doghouse, but if he can be had at a reasonable price, then I see no reason not take him. Speedy guy, potentially very good, and if not then he'd be signed at a price low enough that he won't be totally immovable. Definitely something to look into, as this team can't afford to throw money at UFA's that are really established. I do agree with HenryHank that Afinogenov could be totally horrible and a waste of time, but with his current level of play I find it hard to say that his salary next year will be too much to warrant a gamble. Definitely can see the point of anyone who disagrees though, it is a bit of a stretch.


I would have been intrigued with Afinogenov in the $3 million area before the news about the cap staying where it is came out last week. At this point, $3 million, as low as it might seem, is a gamble for the Pens. They are looking at having $3-$5 million to repalce Satan, Fedotenko, and Sykora. Of the two Sabres, I think I'd rather have Kotalik. He plays a more physical game and seems to be better at playing a system. Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Henry Hank on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:18 pm

Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.


I don't think I agree with that. If anything, Therrien's had a lot of success whipping guys into shape who don't like to give it their all on both sides of the ice. Both Sykora and Satan had found themselves in the dog house and they both improved. He did wonders with Malone. I think he was getting through to Christensen before he got traded. If they signed Afinogenov, I don't have much doubt that it would be an adjustment for him before he plays the way Therrien wants him to, but I think it can be done.

Another guy to think about may be Pesonen. I'd eventually like to see him get a chance in the NHL. He could be a low cost replacement for Sykora. If you look at Sykora, a lot of his goal production here has come on the PP. I think replacing what he brings wouldn't be all that difficult. Could Pesonen put up 20-25 goals and ~50 points playing with Malkin and getting regular PP time? I really wouldn't doubt it. Of course, he's a UFA and would have to be signed to a new deal but he might have some loyalty to the Pens for giving him the chance.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Samsdog on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:18 pm

Kraftster wrote:
Samsdog wrote:If there's one area where I think the Penguins can restock from within, it's on defense. That said, I don't feel that it's all that wise a move to dump the Whitney's that could well be the best defenseman in the system in two years. The Penguins can't keep paying 13 million on three defenseman and 5 million on a goalie, to be sure, but I would say that trimming the fat in one area (Gonchar) if at all possible is the best way to go. The team is definitely in serious cap trouble, and on defense and down the middle is where the largest chunks of salary are concentrated.
IMO, second-tier, high-upside signings like Afinogenov aren't horrible moves; realistically, his open market price may not rise above 3 million, and he could easily plug Satan's role. Now I know someones going to tell me he has suffered the last two years, he's in Ruff's doghouse, but if he can be had at a reasonable price, then I see no reason not take him. Speedy guy, potentially very good, and if not then he'd be signed at a price low enough that he won't be totally immovable. Definitely something to look into, as this team can't afford to throw money at UFA's that are really established. I do agree with HenryHank that Afinogenov could be totally horrible and a waste of time, but with his current level of play I find it hard to say that his salary next year will be too much to warrant a gamble. Definitely can see the point of anyone who disagrees though, it is a bit of a stretch.


I would have been intrigued with Afinogenov in the $3 million area before the news about the cap staying where it is came out last week. At this point, $3 million, as low as it might seem, is a gamble for the Pens. They are looking at having $3-$5 million to repalce Satan, Fedotenko, and Sykora. Of the two Sabres, I think I'd rather have Kotalik. He plays a more physical game and seems to be better at playing a system. Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.


Definitely see the logic there; and while I agree that 3 million is a stretch, Afinogenov is just one possibility that I kept on for convenience sake. I'd be interested in exploring Kotalik, as well as other free agents on that tier, but if they don't attempt to replace from within, make a trade, or go with someone they know will be complete crap, then there aren't a ton of options out there. The cap constraints are going to hurt, but a clever GM can find his way around it.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Kraftster on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:20 pm

Bob McKenzie wrote:Maybe the government can bail out the NHL :P

The bottom line is, Fedostinko, Satan, and Gill will not be back. That is $8.5m in savings there. Add in Boucher and you're at $11. We're going to need to give raises to Staal, Talbot, Goligoski, and Zigomanis. We should still have a few mil to play with.

Also, if the cap affects us, it affects everyone else. Other teams may not be driving up salaries (Mr. Hossa and Mr. Gaborik).


But, the Pens basically lose all of that savings immediately. Malkin's extension basically negates the savings of
Boucher and Sykora. Goligoski comes close to negating the savings on Gill, Talbot's new contract probably negates the savings on Scuderi and then some. Staal and Zigomanis will combine to negate the savings on Fedotenko. Say the backup goalie spot is a wash, that leaves Satan's salary as a salary that is gone and not replaced. $3-5 million is all they are looking at to replace Sykora, Satan, Fedotenko.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:23 pm

Bob McKenzie wrote:Maybe the government can bail out the NHL :P

The bottom line is, Fedostinko, Satan, and Gill will not be back. That is $8.5m in savings there. Add in Boucher and you're at $11. We're going to need to give raises to Staal, Talbot, Goligoski, and Zigomanis. We should still have a few mil to play with.

Also, if the cap affects us, it affects everyone else. Other teams may not be driving up salaries (Mr. Hossa and Mr. Gaborik).


You forgot Malkin's raise kicks in.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Kraftster on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:24 pm

Henry Hank wrote:
Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.


I don't think I agree with that. If anything, Therrien's had a lot of success whipping guys into shape who don't like to give it their all on both sides of the ice. Both Sykora and Satan had found themselves in the dog house and they both improved. He did wonders with Malone. I think he was getting through to Christensen before he got traded. If they signed Afinogenov, I don't have much doubt that it would be an adjustment for him before he plays the way Therrien wants him to, but I think it can be done.

Another guy to think about may be Pesonen. I'd eventually like to see him get a chance in the NHL. He could be a low cost replacement for Sykora. If you look at Sykora, a lot of his goal production here has come on the PP. I think replacing what he brings wouldn't be all that difficult. Could Pesonen put up 20-25 goals and ~50 points playing with Malkin and getting regular PP time? I really wouldn't doubt it. Of course, he's a UFA and would have to be signed to a new deal but he might have some loyalty to the Pens for giving him the chance.


That's a fair point, but, with those guys I don't think the really had a history of defiance, more so just a sort of neutral history where they hadn't played particularly tight games in the past. Afinogenov plays for a coach that demands a lot right now, and, he has consistently let the team/coach down. I think Lindy Ruff is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the league -- especially at getting a lot out of the players that he has. To think that Afinogenov would get it together for one tough coach while not doing so for another seems like a bigger stretch to me than thinking that Satan and Sykora would be willing to add some structure to their games.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Samsdog on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:31 pm

Kraftster wrote:
Henry Hank wrote:
Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.


I don't think I agree with that. If anything, Therrien's had a lot of success whipping guys into shape who don't like to give it their all on both sides of the ice. Both Sykora and Satan had found themselves in the dog house and they both improved. He did wonders with Malone. I think he was getting through to Christensen before he got traded. If they signed Afinogenov, I don't have much doubt that it would be an adjustment for him before he plays the way Therrien wants him to, but I think it can be done.

Another guy to think about may be Pesonen. I'd eventually like to see him get a chance in the NHL. He could be a low cost replacement for Sykora. If you look at Sykora, a lot of his goal production here has come on the PP. I think replacing what he brings wouldn't be all that difficult. Could Pesonen put up 20-25 goals and ~50 points playing with Malkin and getting regular PP time? I really wouldn't doubt it. Of course, he's a UFA and would have to be signed to a new deal but he might have some loyalty to the Pens for giving him the chance.


That's a fair point, but, with those guys I don't think the really had a history of defiance, more so just a sort of neutral history where they hadn't played particularly tight games in the past. Afinogenov plays for a coach that demands a lot right now, and, he has consistently let the team/coach down. I think Lindy Ruff is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the league -- especially at getting a lot out of the players that he has. To think that Afinogenov would get it together for one tough coach while not doing so for another seems like a bigger stretch to me than thinking that Satan and Sykora would be willing to add some structure to their games.


I don't see it as completely out of the question that Afinogenov might play for a coach that he CHOSE to play for. This guy is a UFA. If he's signing with a team, he's doing it for a reason. If he signs here, then that reason is probably to make himself look better. Let's face it, if you pull a guy off the free agent market and he doesn't listen to your coach, it's because he didn't know what he was getting himself into or he was all about the money and thought he could tolerate the coach. The Penguins don't have money, so that's not it, and everyone in the league knows Therrien's rep, so that's probably a stretch too. Ultimately, the free agents decide where they're going and why, and to make money and be lazy is not a legitimate reason to join a cap-crunched team.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:32 pm

Henry Hank wrote:
Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.


I don't think I agree with that. If anything, Therrien's had a lot of success whipping guys into shape who don't like to give it their all on both sides of the ice. Both Sykora and Satan had found themselves in the dog house and they both improved. He did wonders with Malone. I think he was getting through to Christensen before he got traded. If they signed Afinogenov, I don't have much doubt that it would be an adjustment for him before he plays the way Therrien wants him to, but I think it can be done.

Another guy to think about may be Pesonen. I'd eventually like to see him get a chance in the NHL. He could be a low cost replacement for Sykora. If you look at Sykora, a lot of his goal production here has come on the PP. I think replacing what he brings wouldn't be all that difficult. Could Pesonen put up 20-25 goals and ~50 points playing with Malkin and getting regular PP time? I really wouldn't doubt it. Of course, he's a UFA and would have to be signed to a new deal but he might have some loyalty to the Pens for giving him the chance.


Pesonen is an interesting possibility as a Sykora replacement. His playmaking abilities could possibly help Malkin score a lot of goals himself, and he has shown a willingness to play a grittier higher energy game than Sykora, which I think Malkin would benefit from.

And of course, if that doesn't pan out, I don't think it would hurt the Pens too much because of how cheap Peso will be.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Why So Serious? on Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:54 pm

It would be ideal if Luca Caputi pans out over the course of this year and gives a real good show in training camp and pre-season next year.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Kraftster on Mon Nov 24, 2008 7:45 pm

Kraftster wrote:
That's a fair point, but, with those guys I don't think the really had a history of defiance, more so just a sort of neutral history where they hadn't played particularly tight games in the past. Afinogenov plays for a coach that demands a lot right now, and, he has consistently let the team/coach down. I think Lindy Ruff is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the league -- especially at getting a lot out of the players that he has. To think that Afinogenov would get it together for one tough coach while not doing so for another seems like a bigger stretch to me than thinking that Satan and Sykora would be willing to add some structure to their games.

I don't see it as completely out of the question that Afinogenov might play for a coach that he CHOSE to play for. This guy is a UFA. If he's signing with a team, he's doing it for a reason. If he signs here, then that reason is probably to make himself look better. Let's face it, if you pull a guy off the free agent market and he doesn't listen to your coach, it's because he didn't know what he was getting himself into or he was all about the money and thought he could tolerate the coach. The Penguins don't have money, so that's not it, and everyone in the league knows Therrien's rep, so that's probably a stretch too. Ultimately, the free agents decide where they're going and why, and to make money and be lazy is not a legitimate reason to join a cap-crunched team.


That's a very good point. He would be choosing to come here so you'd think he'd be more inclined to work hard.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:40 pm

How about Ottawa as an off-season trade partner and destination for Whitney?

Losing Corvo and Streit really hurt them on the back end as far as puck movement goes, and they've got some guys that could be useful for the Pens and cheap.

something like Whitney for Schubert, Bass, and Foligno, maybe evening it out a bit with picks. Pens add another winger prospect who is closer to the NHL than Caputi in Foligno, add another gritty forward who can also be the Pens 7th d-man and a great PK'er (kill two birds with one stone) and Bass, another gritty bottom 6 guy.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:39 am

Whitney to Ottawa on draft day keeps making more sense to me the more I think about it
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Henry Hank on Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:49 am

something like Whitney for Schubert, Bass, and Foligno


Too much of a quality for quantity trade to me. Schubert and Bass are good fourth liners, but they're still fourth liners. Foligno's really young, but I'm not convinced that he's going to be that good. Whitney should be a really good trading chip if he's out there, so they should be able to do better than a maybe. If Vermette wasn't tanking so hard this year, maybe a packge of him and Foligno together would be something to consider. Ottawa might be a team that would be interested, though. Their strength was their strong puck moving D and they let it go away. No surprise that they're not longer a good team.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Idoit40fans on Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:51 am

If Whitney gets traded there better be 2 of 3 of, solid scoring wing prospects, high picks, and a reliable scorer coming back.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby pcm on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:00 am

Noise wrote:
Henry Hank wrote:
Assuming MT is in Pittsburgh, signing a guy like Afinogenov who doesn't listen to his coaches is just asking for a total bust.


I don't think I agree with that. If anything, Therrien's had a lot of success whipping guys into shape who don't like to give it their all on both sides of the ice. Both Sykora and Satan had found themselves in the dog house and they both improved. He did wonders with Malone. I think he was getting through to Christensen before he got traded. If they signed Afinogenov, I don't have much doubt that it would be an adjustment for him before he plays the way Therrien wants him to, but I think it can be done.

Another guy to think about may be Pesonen. I'd eventually like to see him get a chance in the NHL. He could be a low cost replacement for Sykora. If you look at Sykora, a lot of his goal production here has come on the PP. I think replacing what he brings wouldn't be all that difficult. Could Pesonen put up 20-25 goals and ~50 points playing with Malkin and getting regular PP time? I really wouldn't doubt it. Of course, he's a UFA and would have to be signed to a new deal but he might have some loyalty to the Pens for giving him the chance.


Pesonen is an interesting possibility as a Sykora replacement. His playmaking abilities could possibly help Malkin score a lot of goals himself, and he has shown a willingness to play a grittier higher energy game than Sykora, which I think Malkin would benefit from.

And of course, if that doesn't pan out, I don't think it would hurt the Pens too much because of how cheap Peso will be.


Don't count Minard out either. Yeah the guy has no pedigree. But people write him off as a career minor-leaguer when the they see his age, without looking at the fact that he has spent all the time working himself up the system without being drafted by an NHL team. Now he leads a good AHL team in scoring. He shoots from anywhere. He's got the drive to succeed.

A good article about him written by Bombulie: http://www.standardspeaker.com/articles/2008/10/26/sports/hz_standspeak.20081026.b.pg4.cv26_penguins_s1.2042520_spo.txt

I could see him fitting in in either Satan or Sykora's roles.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Henry Hank on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:02 am

When I think of Minard, I think of Ouellet. I've always thought Ouellet is a decent NHL winger, but on a team like the Pens, he has no place. Minard has plenty of heart and has put up some numbers in the ECHL and AHL just like Ouellet did, but again like Ouellet, he doesn't have the talent to go along with it.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:09 am

Henry Hank wrote:
something like Whitney for Schubert, Bass, and Foligno


Too much of a quality for quantity trade to me. Schubert and Bass are good fourth liners, but they're still fourth liners. Foligno's really young, but I'm not convinced that he's going to be that good. Whitney should be a really good trading chip if he's out there, so they should be able to do better than a maybe. If Vermette wasn't tanking so hard this year, maybe a packge of him and Foligno together would be something to consider. Ottawa might be a team that would be interested, though. Their strength was their strong puck moving D and they let it go away. No surprise that they're not longer a good team.


Yeah, I wasn't too sure on Foligno's upside, that's why I said it could be balanced out with picks.

Ottawa's 1st could be pretty valuable, considering how awful they are this year.

I'd really like the Pens to get Schubert though.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby pcm on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:16 am

Henry Hank wrote:When I think of Minard, I think of Ouellet. I've always thought Ouellet is a decent NHL winger, but on a team like the Pens, he has no place. Minard has plenty of heart and has put up some numbers in the ECHL and AHL just like Ouellet did, but again like Ouellet, he doesn't have the talent to go along with it.



I bet the same could be said of Detroit's self-developed players if they were brought up on another team than Detroit. People don't realize their success is not just drafting diamonds in the rough, but in developing these players and getting them to buy into the machine that is their system / organization. If Pittsburgh is going to approach that level of success with the cap in place, they will need to get the most out of guys like Minard, who I could see being as successful as a Hudler or Flippula in Detroit.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Henry Hank on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:28 am

There's still a huge difference in skill there. Skill isn't everything, but you pretty much have to have it to be a good player on a legitimate contender. Minard might be able to carve out a decent career on a team like the Islanders but I don't think he'd cut it on a team like the Pens as they are right now. I respect him a lot, though, he worked himself up from a level below the ECHL and has had a few stints in the NHL already. If some of those highly skilled busts like Daigle had the kind of heart and determination he's had, they would be Hall of Famers.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby pcm on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:49 am

I don't think Minard has gotten this far on heart and determination alone. To be successful at every level you have to skill. More important to my point, is that when players with some skill and enough heart and determination are taught to buy into an organization wide system like Detroit, they can become highly productive within that system, without costing very much.

IMO Detroit's gems would not be nearly as successful if developed elsewhere. Now, they have probably learned enough they could take it elsewhere, but without the development within that system, they would just be Michelle Ouelletes.

Does Pittsburgh have this? Not yet. But they are moving in the right direction. Therrien's constant line shuffling (which has become a myth onto itself), is indicative of the replaceable-parts mentality he brings to coaching. It may be Minard's career will be too late in development to be really useful in this regard, but it is the way Pittsburgh will have to approach their asset-value management with their star-laden roster if they want to be a contender year in and year out.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby pcm on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:54 am

On another note, wouldn't the Sedin twins look nice on a line with Crosby? They are UFA's after this season...
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Idoit40fans on Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:56 am

You're overrating both the talent level of some of the penguins talent and the development of the Wings system. Its certainly better than that of the Penguins, but neither Minard nor Ouellet would be in the NHL in their organization, even if they were able to get 100% of their potential out of them via their development and system.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:19 am

I don't think either of them would be on the Red Wings big club.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby pcm on Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:27 am

Idoit40fans wrote:You're overrating both the talent level of some of the penguins talent and the development of the Wings system. Its certainly better than that of the Penguins, but neither Minard nor Ouellet would be in the NHL in their organization, even if they were able to get 100% of their potential out of them via their development and system.



Look at the stats for any of Detroit's homegrown guys before they came to the NHL. Michelle Ouellete and Chris Minard could be favorably compared to any of them. Hell, compare Ouellete's 3 year NHL career to where Zetterberg and Datsyuk were after 3 seasons.

Ouellete 190 GP 119 PTs
Zetterberg 190 GP 137 PTs (3rd season was lockout. 50 games 50 pts for Zetts in Swededn)
Datsyuk 209 GP 154 Pts

Those numbers are in the same league, yet no way would you say these players are. Ouellete's career is on hold and these guys are super-stars. But I'm saying, they're more a product of Detroit's system than not. If Minard or Michelle came up in that system, I see no reason why they would not be as successful as a Jiri Hudler or Flippula.
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Re: UFAs 2009

Postby Noise on Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:40 am

I'm sorry, but you're comparing MO to Datsyuk and Zetterberg. That's just ridiculous. Points don't tell the whole story.

There's a matter of ice-time, hits, PK time, PP time, give-a-aways, take-aways skating abilities, to show differences between players too.
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