speculating on the cap numbers

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speculating on the cap numbers

Postby columbia on Sat Dec 06, 2008 10:24 am

While we might have expected the cap to go up $3-4 M next year, the economic shock is clearly going to have an effect. We can't trust that figure of it dropping to 48Mm but let's assume it stays the same. (Lot's of assumptions here, but that's the nature of this type of discussion):

After signing a backup G, Scuderi and Goligoski, assuming Eaton stays and Boucher and Gill move on, that would probably put the cap hit in the 46 M range. (The Pens are already locked in for about 41 before they sign the above.)

So that leaves about 10 M to sign or replace:
Satan, Sykora, Fedotenko, Staal, Talbot, Kennedy and Zigomanis.

That's getting really tight, even if it were to go up $3-4 M.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby joker10277 on Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:16 am

It's gonna be tight, tough desicions are going to have to be made. RS has some work to do.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby columbia on Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:20 am

joker10277 wrote:It's gonna be tight, tough desicions are going to have to be made. RS has some work to do.


It would be a slightly easier if Staal could find a consistent scoring touch and move to wing.
A Talbot/Kennedy/Cooke 3rd line would be very reliable.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby SolidSnake on Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:33 am

I don't think Satan, Fedo or Sykora will be back next season but that's just imo.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Tico Rick on Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:55 am

As someone jokingly remarked on Jonny the Bomb's blog the other day, Crosby and Malkin are going to have to deal with the NHL's "sloppy seconds" on their wings for some time to come.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Corvidae on Sat Dec 06, 2008 12:02 pm

SolidSnake wrote:I don't think Satan, Fedo or Sykora will be back next season but that's just imo.


I'd like Sykora back, but the other two can walk.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby mac5155 on Sat Dec 06, 2008 12:34 pm

Corvidae wrote:
SolidSnake wrote:I don't think Satan, Fedo or Sykora will be back next season but that's just imo.


I'd like Sykora back, but the other two can walk.


i think sykora will stay for whatever is offered to him.. give him a .5 million raise and i guess he stays.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Noise on Sat Dec 06, 2008 12:35 pm

columbia wrote:While we might have expected the cap to go up $3-4 M next year, the economic shock is clearly going to have an effect. We can't trust that figure of it dropping to 48Mm but let's assume it stays the same. (Lot's of assumptions here, but that's the nature of this type of discussion):

After signing a backup G, Scuderi and Goligoski, assuming Eaton stays and Boucher and Gill move on, that would probably put the cap hit in the 46 M range. (The Pens are already locked in for about 41 before they sign the above.)

So that leaves about 10 M to sign or replace:
Satan, Sykora, Fedotenko, Staal, Talbot, Kennedy and Zigomanis.

That's getting really tight, even if it were to go up $3-4 M.


Curry will be the backup next year
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Bob McKenzie on Sat Dec 06, 2008 12:39 pm

Corvidae wrote:
SolidSnake wrote:I don't think Satan, Fedo or Sykora will be back next season but that's just imo.


I'd like Sykora back, but the other two can walk.


Agreed.

Also, I think some of Sykora's issues for goal scoring can be attributed to Satan taking his spot on the #1 PP.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Corvidae on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:10 pm

Bob McKenzie wrote:
Corvidae wrote:
SolidSnake wrote:I don't think Satan, Fedo or Sykora will be back next season but that's just imo.


I'd like Sykora back, but the other two can walk.


Agreed.

Also, I think some of Sykora's issues for goal scoring can be attributed to Satan taking his spot on the #1 PP.


Which if you ask me, is wrong. Syko > Satan.

To the OP, we have Kennedy signed for a two year extension believed to be worth around .600 or .700 million a year. As for Scuds, I don't think we'll be able to resign him. Remember Jeff Finger and his new $3.5 million deal?
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby bhaw on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:15 pm

The one thing that may bring market value down on some of these players is that:

1. Teams with budgets like the Preds will still have budgets, so they won't be spending lavishly on guys like Sykora and Scuderi
2. The big spender teams have already gone on spending sprees and will have cap issues just maintaining their current rosters. For example, Philly and the Rangers won't have the room to big excessively on those kinds of guys.

I think we actually see reasonable contracts doled out this off season. The big names like Hossa who are UFAs will get the money from someone, but those 2nd tier wingers who were getting 4.5-5M won't be getting those contracts if the cap stays the same or goes down.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby bhaw on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:18 pm

The down side to what I just posted is that the Pens are one of those tight to the cap teams. So losing Sykora over 250K per year is a definite possibility because the Pens only have so much money they can spend. Those smaller market teams actually have an advantage.

edit: the smaller market teams have an advantage on the 2nd and 3rd tier guys. The top guys coming up on UFA will get their money regardless.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Samsdog on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:27 pm

The remaining 10 mill is exceptionally difficult to allocate IMO...

.5 mill for Curry
5 mill for Staal (I don't like that number for him but he won't bend on it [otherwise a deal would already have been done] and RS won't let him go.) Even assuming that he's just streaking and his offense isn't going to pick up, he has developed into a 5 million dollar player.
2.75 for Sykora (you can't let him go, if you try to replace him even for the same number you're not going to get what he's giving, if only because he meshes with Geno)
2.5 million for Scuderi or similar replacement
1.5 million for Goligoski (face it, the kid has been off and on and his defense reminds me of Letang two years ago)

With Whitney and Gonchar back, Boucher and Gill can leave, there's no need for them since there will be 7 NHL defenseman and Danny Richmond has proved to be a serviceable replacement. Even letting those two walk, 12.25 out of 10 mill is committed. Something has to give. Satan and Tank haven't yet been resigned or replaced, nor has Zigomanis. The cap situation is bad. Really bad. If memory serves Talbot is also up for a raise this year or next. Where to trim the fat? A seventh defenseman shouldn't be making more than 1.5 million. There's some money saved. The numbers I gave are really assuming hometown discounts. I wouldn't want to be Shero.

EDIT: the only saving grace is that the UFA's aren't the kind of guys that teams overpay for during the offseason, normally those are superstars or played out former stars that GM's hope will re-find their touch. Doesn't much apply to most of the Pen's players. I don't think that them being lured away with lavish contracts is a big concern.
Last edited by Samsdog on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby cs6687 on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:27 pm

Based on the current roster, the Penguins have 12 players signed for next season at $41.8 million. Restricted FAs include Staal, Talbot, and Goligoski. Unrestricted FAs are Satan, Sykora, Fedotenko, Zigomanis, Gill, Scuderi, Boucher, and Sabourin.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby pensfan20 on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:47 pm

When does the new cap number usually come out? Obviously it has to come out before the trade deadline doesnt it? if it does then that helps, if it doesnt, you might not see much big action at the deadline if people dont know what to expect.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Mongoose87 on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:47 pm

I have been a supporter of his this year, but if Staal wants $5 million, I will welcome those draft picks with open arms. Them and that extra cap room will do more for the team than him.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Pens4Life on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:50 pm

As far im concerned, Fedo,Šatan,Boucher,Gill,Dupuis can go,thats 12.5mills.. Eaton trade away for picks-now we have 14.5 mills,re-sign Sykora(3.0),Scuds(1.6),Sabo(1.0),Max(1.2), Staal(3.0),Ziggy(0.7) and still have approx 3 mills to spent for another winger

C : Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Zigomanis, Jeffrey
LW ; winger, Minard, Pesonen, Talbot, Bizz
RW ; Sykora, Kennedy, Cooke, Godard, Taffe

D : Gonchar, Whitney, Orpik, Letang, Goligoski, Scuderi, Richmond (maybe even one of Sneep-Strait duo can jump in)

G ; Fleury, Sabourin, Curry
But Sabo probably is leaving,he will be seeking no.1 spot or at least 30-40 games per season
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Samsdog on Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:58 pm

The problem with that is that Staal isn't going to sign for 3 million, he's been offered that and turned it down. Even then, you have to resign Goligoski, assume that takes .75 million away from your number. Then take away another 1 at least for Staal. Theres 2.75 million left, with no depth left on defense and no top line winger. The lines with that roster look like this-

Dupuis-Crosby-X
Minard-Malkin-Sykora
Kennedy-Staal-Cooke
Bizz or Similar-Zigo-Godard

I don't think Peso is going to turn into anything, and assuming that Bizz or Minard will be NHL ready or even top-6 ready is dangerous at best. Not to mention that lack of D-depth and no top line RW is a pretty big problem. Gonch or Whit has to go IMO. No need for four offense minded D-men-either the future is now or it's never.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Noise on Sat Dec 06, 2008 2:08 pm

Gonch won't go, NTC
Goligoski will be cheaper than Whitney, and Staal will be more important than Whitney
trading Letang won't free any cap space
Whitney, as much upside as he has will be the odd man out IMO
Don't worry too much
Shero's a smart guy
he'll figure it out
we've got a solid core

Whitney for Pominville?
Whitney for Ryan?
Whitney for picks?

I don't know, let's just enjoy the season and then bite our nails all next summer like we did this summer. Or at least for the first few weeks of July.
Last edited by Noise on Sat Dec 06, 2008 2:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Samsdog on Sat Dec 06, 2008 2:13 pm

43.625 already committed by my calculations.
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Noise on Sat Dec 06, 2008 2:14 pm

Pens4Life wrote:As far im concerned, Fedo,Šatan,Boucher,Gill,Dupuis can go,thats 12.5mills.. Eaton trade away for picks-now we have 14.5 mills,re-sign Sykora(3.0),Scuds(1.6),Sabo(1.0),Max(1.2), Staal(3.0),Ziggy(0.7) and still have approx 3 mills to spent for another winger

C : Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Zigomanis, Jeffrey
LW ; winger, Minard, Pesonen, Talbot, Bizz
RW ; Sykora, Kennedy, Cooke, Godard, Taffe

D : Gonchar, Whitney, Orpik, Letang, Goligoski, Scuderi, Richmond (maybe even one of Sneep-Strait duo can jump in)

G ; Fleury, Sabourin, Curry
But Sabo probably is leaving,he will be seeking no.1 spot or at least 30-40 games per season


You forgot about re-signing Goligoski, and about Malkin's new contract kicking in, and about the cap going down.
But in the end you came up with about the right number- 3 million-ish being free (assuming the cap goes down to about 55 million)
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Pens4Life on Sat Dec 06, 2008 3:13 pm

Samsdog wrote:The problem with that is that Staal isn't going to sign for 3 million, he's been offered that and turned it down. Even then, you have to resign Goligoski, assume that takes .75 million away from your number. Then take away another 1 at least for Staal. Theres 2.75 million left, with no depth left on defense and no top line winger. The lines with that roster look like this-

Dupuis-Crosby-X
Minard-Malkin-Sykora
Kennedy-Staal-Cooke
Bizz or Similar-Zigo-Godard

I don't think Peso is going to turn into anything, and assuming that Bizz or Minard will be NHL ready or even top-6 ready is dangerous at best. Not to mention that lack of D-depth and no top line RW is a pretty big problem. Gonch or Whit has to go IMO. No need for four offense minded D-men-either the future is now or it's never.


if Staal wont re-sign for 3mills.let him go.. thats just too much for him -4mills or even more,3 mills per season for 2 years,then we will see.. Gonch will be gone by then,soo..
BUT MAN IM WORRIED NOW,if Staal,Letang,Goligoski,Caputi and others develop into players they promised will be,where we gonna get money for all of them.
Crosby,Malkin,Whitney,Fleury,Staal is already around 31-32mills,soo there is 23 mills left for 18 players. Soo if Letang,Gogo and others shine,we are screwed.. We will be letting go players or trading them on regular basis,to have a complete Stanley Cup contender,not just 6-7 superstars and 16-17 AHL players(NHL 4th liners) on NHL roster
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby Noise on Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:18 pm

goligoski is going to get 2.5 at least
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby kovyman1127 on Sat Dec 06, 2008 6:14 pm

Samsdog wrote:5 mill for Staal (I don't like that number for him but he won't bend on it [otherwise a deal would already have been done] and RS won't let him go.) Even assuming that he's just streaking and his offense isn't going to pick up, he has developed into a 5 million dollar player.


hahahahahahahah LMFAO
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Re: speculating on the cap numbers

Postby bhaw on Sat Dec 06, 2008 6:20 pm

kovyman1127 wrote:
Samsdog wrote:5 mill for Staal (I don't like that number for him but he won't bend on it [otherwise a deal would already have been done] and RS won't let him go.) Even assuming that he's just streaking and his offense isn't going to pick up, he has developed into a 5 million dollar player.


hahahahahahahah LMFAO


have you guys broken double digits on the anti-Staal Facebook group? Or are you still stuck around 3-5? You didn't even add to the conversation.

Staal is not a 5m player right now. He is becoming more valuable each game, but in this league, it seems to be the trend that you pay for potential. And Staal does have 5m potential. I expect the Pens to get him somewhere in the 4-5 range at this point unless he slows down again.
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