Letang contract - did he (his agent) overplay his hand?

[Draftnik]

I don't think keeping Gogo and Letang is an either/or proposition, but I don't think Letang and his agent can make a case to get more $$$ than Gogo. Gogo is easily better than Letang in the offensive zone. His decision making, vision, tempo, puck movement, puck handling, shooting accuracy, etc are all superior. On the defensive end, Letang is more physical, but that doesn't necessarily make him better defensively. Gogo makes better decisions, reads the play better, and is more positionally/systematically sound. Gogo has also played with a bit of a physical edge this season.

Maybe Shero was telling the truth when he said the Pens did not have any discussions with Letang about an extension so the LGP speculation of $3M to $4M per season could be meaningless, but as of now, how could Shero pay Letang more than Gogo's $1.83M per annum unless Shero buys more seasons from Letang?

Letang averages 22:28 total TOI per game. Gogo averages 22:02 total TOI per game.
Letang averages 1:02 SH TOI per game. Gogo averages 1:44 SH TOI per game.
Letang averages 4:07 PP TOI per game. Gogo averages 4:26 PP TOI per game.

Gogo dominates the Pens Dmen in points & +/-

____ PTS +/-
Gogo 13 +14
Letang 7 +2
Gonch 8 -2
Orpik 6 -5
Eaton 4 +4
McKee 4 +9
Skoula 2 +1

Based on the way HCDB uses Gogo & Letang (PP, SH, ES) and based on their production (points & +/-) there is no way Letang is more valuable to the Pens. It should be very interesting to see if the production difference continues throughout the season and if it does, how Shero uses that in terms of negotiating with Letang. The $3M to $4M comparable salary for puck moving Dmen may not be accepted by the Pens since they are receiving great value from Gogo for $1.83M and Shero can use the Sid/Geno salary parity argument plus the fact the Pens need to keep salaries down across the entire team so they can afford to round the roster out with as many high caliber players as possible for Cup contention while Sid, Geno, and MAF are under PGH contracts.

As an aside, Gogo has to be on Burke's radar for Team USA in Vancouver.

[bhaw]

Letang is still putting up impressive stats with ice team on a team that's winning. It's Goligoski who is diminishing Letang's value to the Pens. If gogo wasn't doing so well, we'd be leaning on Letang more. So I don't think Letang is anywhere in the ballpark of $4m now and is lucky to be in the $3m range, IMO. He's becoming a solid minute muncher with decent offensive skill. But teams don't pay a lot for a guy who is decent on offense and decent of defense. Even though you need guys like him, they don't get paid. You need to be awesome at one end or the other to get a big payday.

If I'm Shero, I'm floating 2.5M at him right now and letting him gnaw on that for the next couple months.

[columbia]

Was there a rumored amount that the Pens were willing to give Letang during the off-season in order to get him locked up? I'm talking about a "real rumor" and not the $3-4M that seemed be made up by posters here.

Either way: Letang's agent is going to have a hard time justifying any contract demand that is > $2.5M.
Of course, his relative worth seems a lot less.
(The unknown factor is whether Letang's agent would bizarrely argue that Goligoski's salary cannot be used as a measuring stick to hold down Letang's salary, because GoGo is actually underpaid. Sports agents have done stranger things, I'm sure.)

[Draftnik]

No doubt Gogo is underpaid based on his performance to date. That said, the concept of internal benchmarking (Sid/Geno) is already used by the Pens (a case could be made for Sid and then Geno taking less than market value) so it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

I don't think there were any real rumors (is that an oxymoron?), because Shero said they never had formal discussions and Letang's camp never said anything as far as I know. My interpretation was Shero & Letang were not close on the initial informal figures exchanged, but that was never put out in the media.

[bhaw]

Was there a rumored amount that the Pens were willing to give Letang during the off-season in order to get him locked up? I'm talking about a "real rumor" and not the $3-4M that seemed be made up by posters here.

Either way: Letang's agent is going to have a hard time justifying any contract demand that is > $2.5M.
Of course, his relative worth seems a lot less.
(The unknown factor is whether Letang's agent would bizarrely argue that Goligoski's salary cannot be used as a measuring stick to hold down Letang's salary, because GoGo is actually underpaid. Sports agents have done stranger things, I'm sure.)

It's not even comparing contracts. It is now Letang's value to the Pens. It's a huge amount of leverage that is now gone. You can only use comparisons for guys that fill your same role. Gogo is not a comparison (as of this moment) because he is doing much better offensively (when you look at defensemen), is the go to guy on the PP, and has better defensive stats. Letang's agent would have to be brain dead to even mention Goligoski in the negotiations at this point.

[Pitt87]

Was there a rumored amount that the Pens were willing to give Letang during the off-season in order to get him locked up? I'm talking about a "real rumor" and not the $3-4M that seemed be made up by posters here.

Either way: Letang's agent is going to have a hard time justifying any contract demand that is > $2.5M.
Of course, his relative worth seems a lot less.
(The unknown factor is whether Letang's agent would bizarrely argue that Goligoski's salary cannot be used as a measuring stick to hold down Letang's salary, because GoGo is actually underpaid. Sports agents have done stranger things, I'm sure.)

I agree. I have said for a long time that Letang's production is not what is going to get him paid, its going to be his ability to be an emotional leader on the ice and make big plays at big times. That said, he continues to turn the puck over a lot and allowed Gogo to overtake him in nearly every statistical category.

Also, Gogo isn't underpaid, he is providing value...

[71]

If Gogo continues on his current pace he'll finish this year with 31 goals and 36 assists for 67 points, a +72 rating, and one Norris Trophy. Using his year to determine Letang's contract is unrealistic. If Gogo puts up a year like that and goes on the market as a RFA he'd get 7 million per year easy. Letang's value is based on what he could receive as a RFA, not whatever contract Gogo negotiated as an unproven NHL defenseman.

[Draftnik]

It is now Letang's value to the Pens. It's a huge amount of leverage is now gone.

Excellent reading comprehension That was the essence of my post.

[columbia]

I don't think there were any real rumors (is that an oxymoron?), because Shero said they never had formal discussions and Letang's camp never said anything as far as I know. My interpretation was Shero & Letang were not close on the initial informal figures exchanged, but that was never put out in the media.

That would lead me to believe that were offering anywhere from 2 - 2.5 during the off-season and I'm sure there was a benchmarking by RS when it came to Letang and GoGo. If that was the case, RS is likely going to have the upper hand in negotiations.
(Barring a vast improvement by Letang in both ends of the rink during the rest of the season and/or Gonchar making it clear that he won't return to the Pens.)

[bhaw]

I would imagine this ends up as a case that is filed for arbitration and Letang agrees to a 1 year deal about 22 minutes before the hearing.

[columbia]

I would imagine this ends up as a case that is filed for arbitration and Letang agrees to a 1 year deal about 22 minutes before the hearing.

Remind me: Would that kick him into a different FA category for the following season?

And, yes, that does seem quite possible.

[Draftnik]

If Gogo continues on his current pace he'll finish this year with 31 goals and 36 assists for 67 points, a +72 rating, and one Norris Trophy. Using his year to determine Letang's contract is unrealistic. If Gogo puts up a year like that and goes on the market as a RFA he'd get 7 million per year easy. Letang's value is based on what he could receive as a RFA, not whatever contract Gogo negotiated as an unproven NHL defenseman.

What Letang is worth on the open market (RFA) and what he is worth to the Pens are 2 different things. The utility Gogo is providing the Pens on his 2nd NHL contract can only lessen the leverage Letang has with Shero. It is safe to assume Shero & Letang disagreed on his valuation because if they agreed, Letang would already be extended. I agree Letang could wait until 7/1/10 and use RFA as possible leverage, but at that point, Gogo's emergence makes it easier for Shero to walk away and take the picks or flip Letang in a trade and then focus the remaining Cap $$$ on possibly extending Gonchar. Maybe it makes it easier for Shero to use Letang as a possible trade chip at the deadline to add a shutdown Dman or Wing, similar to how he moved Whitney.

Regardless of the hypothetical scenarios, Gogo's emergence has given Shero more flexibility and leverage with Letang's next contract IMO.

[tfrizz]

Was there a rumored amount that the Pens were willing to give Letang during the off-season in order to get him locked up? I'm talking about a "real rumor" and not the $3-4M that seemed be made up by posters here.

Either way: Letang's agent is going to have a hard time justifying any contract demand that is > $2.5M.
Of course, his relative worth seems a lot less.
(The unknown factor is whether Letang's agent would bizarrely argue that Goligoski's salary cannot be used as a measuring stick to hold down Letang's salary, because GoGo is actually underpaid. Sports agents have done stranger things, I'm sure.)

I agree. I have said for a long time that Letang's production is not what is going to get him paid, its going to be his ability to be an emotional leader on the ice and make big plays at big times. That said, he continues to turn the puck over a lot and allowed Gogo to overtake him in nearly every statistical category.

Also, Gogo isn't underpaid, he is providing value...

The thing I find strange about Letang this year, is he didn't play nearly as bad with Eaton. It seems like everyone that's gets paired with Orpik starts playing terrible, except Gonchar. Even the odd time we see a Goligoski-Letang ES pairing, they both look spectacular.

[bhaw]

If Gogo continues on his current pace he'll finish this year with 31 goals and 36 assists for 67 points, a +72 rating, and one Norris Trophy. Using his year to determine Letang's contract is unrealistic. If Gogo puts up a year like that and goes on the market as a RFA he'd get 7 million per year easy. Letang's value is based on what he could receive as a RFA, not whatever contract Gogo negotiated as an unproven NHL defenseman.

What Letang is worth on the open market (RFA) and what he is worth to the Pens are 2 different things. The utility Gogo is providing the Pens on his 2nd NHL contract can only lessen the leverage Letang has with Shero. It is safe to assume Shero & Letang disagreed on his valuation because if they agreed, Letang would already be extended. I agree Letang could wait until 7/1/10 and use RFA as possible leverage, but at that point, Gogo's emergence makes it easier for Shero to walk away and take the picks or flip Letang in a trade and then focus the remaining Cap $$$ on possibly extending Gonchar. Maybe it makes it easier for Shero to use Letang as a possible trade chip at the deadline to add a shutdown Dman or Wing, similar to how he moved Whitney.

Regardless of the hypothetical scenarios, Gogo's emergence has given Shero more flexibility and leverage with Letang's next contract IMO.

Another way to look at it is that Shero should have numbers in his head. 1. What he WANTS to pay Letang and 2. The max he is willing to pay him if push comes to shove. Among other variables, the better Goligoski plays, the less the spread between those two numbers become. So what he could get in RFA will only be a factor if it falls within that spread. If Shero started the year wanting to pay $2.5m but was willing to go has high as 3.25m, that gap has likely closed. So let's say Shero is only willing to go up to $3m right now. Even if Letang says he can get 3.25m easy on the RFA market, he may be right. But he doesn't add enough value to the Pens to warrant going above 3m.

[penny lane]

Goligoski nor Letang didn't made a move that demonstrated the pens could trade Sergei.
Neither has dominated the power play; both letting Sid and other forwards run.

I like K Letang, but he has to believe in his skills and begin to think the game more; along with using his instincts and skills.

Will Sergei take less to stay on? Is he exempt from the home-town discount?

Who is to say GM Shero would not dangle Letang for a winger who can score.

[DocEmrick]

Who is to say GM Shero would not dangle Letang for a winger who can score.

Was about to post this.

[bhaw]

Who is to say GM Shero would not dangle Letang for a winger who can score.

Was about to post this.

I thought there was a rule that Staal was the only player we could trade for a scoring winger...

It would be smart of Letang to take a contract before Shero gets to Gonchar. If the Pens do sign Gonchar, Letang's value to the Pens drops through the floor. He becomes a "nice to have" guy instead of a "probably need him" guy.

[penny lane]

But...I am not ready to give up on a 22 year old kris letang.
Freaky to think the pens have a defense that they can trade from depth.

[tfrizz]

I think a lot of this is going to end up depending on probable compensation. Basically, if Letang signs an offer sheet for less than $3-million ($2,912,822 if you want to be exact) then all the Pens would get in return is a 2nd round pick. That number will change with the cap, but it gives a basic idea. It would be awful hard to let him go in that situation.

I do think we'll see Letang begin to play better once Gonchar comes back though. That is one of the advantages Goligoski has had: playing a 3rd pairing with a guy like McKee, where you rarely see the other team's top line.


* Side Note: Any chance Orpik sees the bench for a few games when Gonchar gets back? He's been absolutely horrible this year.

[columbia]

But...I am not ready to give up on a 22 year old kris letang.
Freaky to think the pens have a defense that they can trade from depth.

I certainly hope no one giving up on him. Especially RS.
They just can't let his agent run them over with an excessive salary demand.

[shmenguin]

even though goligoski's studlyness makes letang less important, the fact that the pens only have 2 nhl d-men under contract next year - one of whom is the currently sucky brooks orpik - makes him still pretty valuable doesn't it? now if shero is almost certain that he can get eaton and gonchar back at the same prices (2 year deal each?), then it's a different story.

but if we do get rid of tanger, believe you me, we're trading/signing a d-man. none of this upgraded winger mumbo jumbo. if everyone was healthy, our current offense+prospects (or prospect) is more than enough to win another cup.

[Mtl-PenFan]

Who is to say GM Shero would not dangle Letang for a winger who can score.

Was about to post this.

I thought there was a rule that Staal was the only player we could trade for a scoring winger...

It would be smart of Letang to take a contract before Shero gets to Gonchar. If the Pens do sign Gonchar, Letang's value to the Pens drops through the floor. He becomes a "nice to have" guy instead of a "probably need him" guy.

You couldn't have put it any better.

It's "nice" to have a minute eater
It's "nice" to have a guy that can skate out of trouble instead of banging it off the glass
It's "nice" to have a guy who can make a pass out of the zone

The problem is that once they get past the offensive line, he almost forgets how good he can be. Too eager to dish off, hesitant to shoot etc... You can't pay him more than 3M a year, and if you do, it better be long term-ish.

[matto514]

Letang also becomes expendable if they can lock up Gonch for long enough to let one of Despres, Sneep or Grant develop. That's also assuming that they believe enough in one of those three, but you get my point.

[brwi]

A few more games like last night and Letang will be lucky to get a buck two-fifty on the open market.

Gogo's rise certainly swings the leverage back into RS's hands and also creates a scenario of extending Gonch and moving out Letang. That said, if Letang and his agent are serious about staying with the Pens, I see a deal being signed and everyone happy. RS has likely already decided the exact dollar figure for Letang's worth as a Penguin and it's just a matter of whether Letang is going to accept it or not. RS will NOT overpay for anyone and isn't in a position where he has to either.

[pens#1]

what Gogo has done so far is great but i think its silly to assume he will continue this pace or not have some bumps along the way. Remember last year how many on here were torn as to if Shero should have given the 3rd year that Sykora was looking for. With that said the Pens are in a great position for the next 3 years because of Gogos cheap cap hit, Shero will do what correct in regards to Letang- if that means resining him, trading him, or even letting some idiotic team over pay for him via offer sheet this summer