Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby Three Stars on Tue May 01, 2012 1:47 pm

sil wrote:What happened in 2009 during games 5, 6, and 7 when Detroit basically neutralized Malkin and Crosby? In game 5 we threw a 60-minute temper tantrum, but then in games 6 and 7 we controlled the play with secondary role players (especially the Cooke/Staal/Kennedy line), ground down whoever the Wings had leftover when their Malkin/Crosby shadows were on the bench, and wore our shutdown pair of D till they went out of style.

This is how we won the cup in 2009...it wasn't Malkin tearing up the wings...it was a more balanced team with some very strong defensive defenders (Scuderi, Gill, and to a lesser extent Eaton). Everyone wants to see Crosby, Malkin, and Staal in the top 6 and leave our third and fourth lines as garbage...well, that'll probably get us another Art Ross trophy, but (especially with the D we have now) I don't see us winning the cup with that model...or even coming close.


I think that 2009 Cup win was a much bigger upset than people realize. Down 0-2 and 3-2 in the series and they win? It could have very easily gone the other way.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby sil on Tue May 01, 2012 1:49 pm

Three Stars wrote:I think that 2009 Cup win was a much bigger upset than people realize. Down 0-2 and 3-2 in the series and they win? It could have very easily gone the other way.


This actually makes the memory of it even better.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby shmenguin on Tue May 01, 2012 1:56 pm

Three Stars wrote:I think that 2009 Cup win was a much bigger upset than people realize. Down 0-2 and 3-2 in the series and they win? It could have very easily gone the other way.


i thought we outplayed detroit in games 1 and 2 but still lost. those games could have gone either way, and who knows if we would have needed 7 games if a few things changed in the series.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby sil on Tue May 01, 2012 1:58 pm

shmenguin wrote:
Three Stars wrote:I think that 2009 Cup win was a much bigger upset than people realize. Down 0-2 and 3-2 in the series and they win? It could have very easily gone the other way.


i thought we outplayed detroit in games 1 and 2 but still lost. those games could have gone either way, and who knows if we would have needed 7 games if a few things changed in the series.


To be honest, I felt games 1,2,3,6 and 7 were VERY evenly played games. Game 4 was easily to the pens, and game 5 was easily to the wings.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby TheHammer24 on Tue May 01, 2012 2:03 pm

Three Stars wrote:
TheHammer24 wrote:
Three Stars wrote:My thought is that the current roster leaves very little margin for error. Either Geno and Sid are godly, the grinders produce above expectations, the defense moves the puck like they're capable, and Fleury plays well, OR they lose in the playoffs. It's like an all or nothing proposition. Remove one of those and the whole thing falls apart.

Yeah - Aren't you just saying winning the cup in the Cap Era is really hard to do? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but that is the underlying point. You can't build a cup-guaranteed team, you just have to maximize the probability that come June you're still playing for it.


Say that a team figures out how to utterly neutralize one or both of the Penguins' top 2 centers. (Such as chipping Malkin until he starts playing stupidly.) Who else on that line is going to carry the load?

Kunitz - XXXXX - Neal
Sullivan - XXXXX - Dupuis

Neal's good but he needs a strong playmaking center. Kunitz is productive but only to a point and is aging, and for some reason loses his scoring touch in the playoffs. Sullivan's a playmaker but is old. Dupuis produced way beyond his career numbers this past year, and I'm not planning on that happening again. Each of their lines are utterly dependent on their centers to create offense. The wings are complementary pieces with the possibly exception of Neal. A smart opponent is going to beat the crap out of Crosby and/or Malkin and have no fear of their linemates whatsoever. We've seen this in Pittsburgh before, but at least when we were throwing out Naslund-Lemieux-Kevin Miller we had a Francis-Jagr line to pick up the slack. Plus, that was Mario Lemieux who could put up 160 points with linemates like that.

You can beat the Penguins' defense by simply keeping the puck in their zone longer than 9 seconds at which point their battle plan runs out. A good puck possession team can (and did) pick them apart.

Fleury can be leaky at entirely the wrong time, and there's basically no viable backup.

So, that's a lot of things that can go (and have gone) wrong with this team as it's constructed.

So again, how does this say anything more than "there's no way to create an unbetable team." And indeed, the inverse of this shows how difficult it is for other teams to beat the Penguins - "you need to shutdown two of the world's best players." That is also a huge "what if."

The operative question then is "what is the alternative. My point is that Sid-Geno on your team makes the Penguins the most difficult to beat.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby shmenguin on Tue May 01, 2012 2:08 pm

sil wrote:
shmenguin wrote:
Three Stars wrote:I think that 2009 Cup win was a much bigger upset than people realize. Down 0-2 and 3-2 in the series and they win? It could have very easily gone the other way.


i thought we outplayed detroit in games 1 and 2 but still lost. those games could have gone either way, and who knows if we would have needed 7 games if a few things changed in the series.


To be honest, I felt games 1,2,3,6 and 7 were VERY evenly played games. Game 4 was easily to the pens, and game 5 was easily to the wings.


i guess what i'm saying is that it wasn't an upset at all.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby Luckybreak on Tue May 01, 2012 2:17 pm

TheHammer24 wrote:
Three Stars wrote:
TheHammer24 wrote:
Three Stars wrote:My thought is that the current roster leaves very little margin for error. Either Geno and Sid are godly, the grinders produce above expectations, the defense moves the puck like they're capable, and Fleury plays well, OR they lose in the playoffs. It's like an all or nothing proposition. Remove one of those and the whole thing falls apart.

Yeah - Aren't you just saying winning the cup in the Cap Era is really hard to do? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but that is the underlying point. You can't build a cup-guaranteed team, you just have to maximize the probability that come June you're still playing for it.


Say that a team figures out how to utterly neutralize one or both of the Penguins' top 2 centers. (Such as chipping Malkin until he starts playing stupidly.) Who else on that line is going to carry the load?

Kunitz - XXXXX - Neal
Sullivan - XXXXX - Dupuis

Neal's good but he needs a strong playmaking center. Kunitz is productive but only to a point and is aging, and for some reason loses his scoring touch in the playoffs. Sullivan's a playmaker but is old. Dupuis produced way beyond his career numbers this past year, and I'm not planning on that happening again. Each of their lines are utterly dependent on their centers to create offense. The wings are complementary pieces with the possibly exception of Neal. A smart opponent is going to beat the crap out of Crosby and/or Malkin and have no fear of their linemates whatsoever. We've seen this in Pittsburgh before, but at least when we were throwing out Naslund-Lemieux-Kevin Miller we had a Francis-Jagr line to pick up the slack. Plus, that was Mario Lemieux who could put up 160 points with linemates like that.

You can beat the Penguins' defense by simply keeping the puck in their zone longer than 9 seconds at which point their battle plan runs out. A good puck possession team can (and did) pick them apart.

Fleury can be leaky at entirely the wrong time, and there's basically no viable backup.

So, that's a lot of things that can go (and have gone) wrong with this team as it's constructed.

So again, how does this say anything more than "there's no way to create an unbetable team." And indeed, the inverse of this shows how difficult it is for other teams to beat the Penguins - "you need to shutdown two of the world's best players." That is also a huge "what if."

The operative question then is "what is the alternative. My point is that Sid-Geno on your team makes the Penguins the most difficult to beat.


The Habs and Flyers series seem to give strong evidence that a trapping team with some shutdown D can do exactly that. Skill spread through the lineup is harder to neutralise.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby TheHammer24 on Tue May 01, 2012 2:25 pm

Luckybreak wrote:
TheHammer24 wrote:So again, how does this say anything more than "there's no way to create an unbetable team." And indeed, the inverse of this shows how difficult it is for other teams to beat the Penguins - "you need to shutdown two of the world's best players." That is also a huge "what if."

The operative question then is "what is the alternative. My point is that Sid-Geno on your team makes the Penguins the most difficult to beat.


The Habs and Flyers series seem to give strong evidence that a trapping team with some shutdown D can do exactly that. Skill spread through the lineup is harder to neutralise.

This is a misnomer. If trapping is a low-skill strategy a team can effectively trap the two best players in the league, how would it suddenly not be able to trap more less good players?

Again, ***'s analysis is correct. He keep demonstrating how hard it is to win the cup and how everything needs to fall into place, but his conclusion is wrong (or at least his implication), that the Penguins need more skill and lose Sid-Geno.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby knives of ice on Tue May 01, 2012 2:34 pm

in the cap era it seems its almost impossible to win without having great players still on their entry level deals. I do like the cap but i think you should be able to go over the cap to pay a player that came up in your system like some other sports do it should be a soft cap in these situations.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby TheHammer24 on Tue May 01, 2012 2:45 pm

knives of ice wrote:in the cap era it seems its almost impossible to win without having great players still on their entry level deals. I do like the cap but i think you should be able to go over the cap to pay a player that came up in your system like some other sports do it should be a soft cap in these situations.

It's certainly the key to success, but impossible is a bit bold. Boston didn't have any great EL deals last year. They also lost Savard.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby sil on Tue May 01, 2012 3:19 pm

TheHammer24 wrote:
knives of ice wrote:in the cap era it seems its almost impossible to win without having great players still on their entry level deals. I do like the cap but i think you should be able to go over the cap to pay a player that came up in your system like some other sports do it should be a soft cap in these situations.

It's certainly the key to success, but impossible is a bit bold. Boston didn't have any great EL deals last year. They also lost Savard.


That's arguable. Seguin's probably making about half of what he'll make after next season.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby shafnutz05 on Tue May 01, 2012 3:36 pm

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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby slappybrown on Tue May 01, 2012 3:48 pm

Three Stars wrote:
TheHammer24 wrote:
Three Stars wrote:My thought is that the current roster leaves very little margin for error. Either Geno and Sid are godly, the grinders produce above expectations, the defense moves the puck like they're capable, and Fleury plays well, OR they lose in the playoffs. It's like an all or nothing proposition. Remove one of those and the whole thing falls apart.

Yeah - Aren't you just saying winning the cup in the Cap Era is really hard to do? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but that is the underlying point. You can't build a cup-guaranteed team, you just have to maximize the probability that come June you're still playing for it.


Say that a team figures out how to utterly neutralize one or both of the Penguins' top 2 centers. (Such as chipping Malkin until he starts playing stupidly.) Who else on that line is going to carry the load?

Kunitz - XXXXX - Neal
Sullivan - XXXXX - Dupuis

Neal's good but he needs a strong playmaking center. Kunitz is productive but only to a point and is aging, and for some reason loses his scoring touch in the playoffs. Sullivan's a playmaker but is old. Dupuis produced way beyond his career numbers this past year, and I'm not planning on that happening again. Each of their lines are utterly dependent on their centers to create offense. The wings are complementary pieces with the possibly exception of Neal. A smart opponent is going to beat the crap out of Crosby and/or Malkin and have no fear of their linemates whatsoever. We've seen this in Pittsburgh before, but at least when we were throwing out Naslund-Lemieux-Kevin Miller we had a Francis-Jagr line to pick up the slack. Plus, that was Mario Lemieux who could put up 160 points with linemates like that.

You can beat the Penguins' defense by simply keeping the puck in their zone longer than 9 seconds at which point their battle plan runs out. A good puck possession team can (and did) pick them apart.

Fleury can be leaky at entirely the wrong time, and there's basically no viable backup.

So, that's a lot of things that can go (and have gone) wrong with this team as it's constructed.


I still don't think you're saying anything that's of any moment. This same type of analysis applies with equal force to every other legitimate cup contender. In a salary cap world, every team has holes and exploitable components. Your primary point seems to be, neutralize the top two players on the Penguins, and they will struggle to beat you. No ****. The same goes for Detroit, or Chicago, or Boston, or Washington, or Philadelphia. Think Philly is going anywhere if Giroux and Briere are neutralized in a seven game series?

Re: Fleury, agreed -- but what's the solution there? You're stuck with him for the duration of this contract in all likelihood, and you aren't going to find someone who is willing to come in as a backup and put you in a better position in comparison to MAF.

Your issue seems to be largely that we lack wings who can generate offense on their own. If we can get such a player for Staal, I'd probably co-sign that deal. Who do you have in mind that works numbers-wise?
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby sil on Tue May 01, 2012 3:49 pm

Let's pretend Nail is the real deal and every bit as good as people say he is...how could you not expect him to demand one of those entry level deals with all the incentives attached so that his NHL salary is actually somewhere in the $3,500,000-$4,000,000 range? I'm not seeing how something like that makes us better...in fact it doesn't, and it pretty much ensures we're having the same ("dump one of them quickly!") discussion in three years when Nail's looking to hit max cap himself.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby Gaucho on Tue May 01, 2012 3:52 pm

Neil, Neal, Nail... this is getting confusing. Did yinz know Jordan Staal has three brothers?
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby sil on Tue May 01, 2012 3:57 pm

slappybrown wrote:The same goes for Detroit, or Chicago, or Boston, or Washington, or Philadelphia. Think Philly is going anywhere if Giroux and Briere are neutralized in a seven game series?


Philly has a better defense than we do to begin with, and they have players on every single line that can score goals. Giroux and Briere turn the tires, but let's compare for a moment...

Hartnell vs. Neal (this year is was pretty much a draw, with a slight edge to Nealer)
Jagr vs. Sullivan (clearly Jagr, who's paid more than twice as much, is better)
Schenn vs. Staal (advantage PIT...so let's trade him! :?: )
JVR vs. Kunitz (Kunitz has two rings, but JVR has been HUGE for philly the last two playoff years...advantage PHL)
Simmonds vs. Cooke (both can agitate, Simmonds can score more...advantage PHL)
Voracek vs. Kennedy (Voracek by about 10 miles)
Couturier vs. Dupuis (Dupuis with the advantage now...but now by a whole lot on a very good rookie...and don't forget how easily Couturier shut down Malkin)
Read vs. Adams (Read by about 100 miles)


As much as we may not want to admit it, Philly is a significantly deeper offensive team than we are.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby slappybrown on Tue May 01, 2012 4:09 pm

Jagr and Sullivan put up nearly identical numbers this season. Sullivan was bad in the series, and I'd take Jagr over him, but the gap isn't "significant", nor am I sure how his being paid twice as much matters in terms of who is "better." If anything, being paid twice as much for nearly identical production hurts your argument.

JVR has put up 6, 7, and 1 pts in the past 3 playoffs. He's much younger than Kunitz, but I'm not sure that his ceiling is all that much higher than Kunitz's. Maybe 60-65 pts/per.

The rest I'd agree with, but not sure how Couterier's defensive abilities matter re: offensive depth. In sum, they are deeper and less top-heavy, but again, I find it hard to believe that Philly is winning the Cup in a series in which Giroux/Briere are shutdown.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby AlexPKeaton on Tue May 01, 2012 4:24 pm

There is no way they are trading Jordan Staal before the trade deadline, since there will not be a new CBA before the deadline, and therefore no way to know how much money they have to work with.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby Jasmine on Tue May 01, 2012 4:29 pm

If we have to lose Jordan Staal, I totally blame Ray Shero. Why does he get a free pass? He let Scuderi and Gill go for way less than he paid Martin and Mikalek . . . not to mention his letting Mike Rupp and Max Talbot go, too. The team that won the Cup was basically Craig Patrick's and Michel Therrien's. When is the 'love affair' with Shero going to end?
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby darkstar57 on Tue May 01, 2012 4:36 pm

Jasmine wrote: He let Scuderi and Gill go for way less than he paid Martin and Mikalek


This argument keeps coming up over and over and over again. That offseason, the salary cap was not in the position it was now, there wasn't the cap space to sign these guys, that is how we ended up with Jay Mckee playing big minutes for us.

Yes Scuderi and Gill make way less the Martin and Michelek, but its not an apples to apples argument. You have to factor in cap situation at the time.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby Jasmine on Tue May 01, 2012 4:40 pm

darkstar57 wrote:
Jasmine wrote: He let Scuderi and Gill go for way less than he paid Martin and Mikalek


This argument keeps coming up over and over and over again. That offseason, the salary cap was not in the position it was now, there wasn't the cap space to sign these guys, that is how we ended up with Jay Mckee playing big minutes for us.

Yes Scuderi and Gill make way less the Martin and Michelek, but its not an apples to apples argument. You have to factor in cap situation at the time.

I just can't take the thought of losing 24 yo Staal who will only get bigger and better. Maybe I'm having a breakdown. :? I was sick when Pens let Scuderi go as his game was just perfected (the "piece"0), but the thought of losing Staal is just incomprehensible. :(
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby MRandall25 on Tue May 01, 2012 4:43 pm

darkstar57 wrote:
Jasmine wrote: He let Scuderi and Gill go for way less than he paid Martin and Mikalek


This argument keeps coming up over and over and over again. That offseason, the salary cap was not in the position it was now, there wasn't the cap space to sign these guys, that is how we ended up with Jay Mckee playing big minutes for us.

Yes Scuderi and Gill make way less the Martin and Michelek, but its not an apples to apples argument. You have to factor in cap situation at the time.


What people also seem to forget is that we signed Martin and Michalek a full year after Scuderi and Gill left.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby farnham16 on Tue May 01, 2012 4:46 pm

When will people realize that Jordan Staal is not nearly as good as Evgeni Malkin? Staal is a very good player, but he's not even in the same neighborhood as Geno. Looking at their career numbers tells you all you need to know. One is all world, the other is fringe all star. Malkin has also shown multiple times that he can carry this team basically by himself. Staal hasn't.

If Shero is forced to trade one of the big 3, it will be Staal all day. It would suck losing him, and I don't want to. But you hurt your team the least by trading Staal.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby Streaks House on Tue May 01, 2012 4:48 pm

Jasmine wrote:
darkstar57 wrote:
Jasmine wrote: He let Scuderi and Gill go for way less than he paid Martin and Mikalek


This argument keeps coming up over and over and over again. That offseason, the salary cap was not in the position it was now, there wasn't the cap space to sign these guys, that is how we ended up with Jay Mckee playing big minutes for us.

Yes Scuderi and Gill make way less the Martin and Michelek, but its not an apples to apples argument. You have to factor in cap situation at the time.

I just can't take the thought of losing 24 yo Staal who will only get bigger and better. Maybe I'm having a breakdown. :? I was sick when Pens let Scuderi go as his game was just perfected (the "piece"0), but the thought of losing Staal is just incomprehensible. :(


This is the reality a team operating in a capped league faces, parting ways with star players and fan favorites (in Pittsburgh they are deified heroes). Not saying anyone in particular is moved, but if that is the case, this isn't to say the team doesn't end up better off.
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Re: Jordan Staal - perhaps the big story for this offseason

Postby MRandall25 on Tue May 01, 2012 4:52 pm

farnham16 wrote:When will people realize that Jordan Staal is not nearly as good as Evgeni Malkin? Staal is a very good player, but he's not even in the same neighborhood as Geno. Looking at their career numbers tells you all you need to know. One is all world, the other is fringe all star. Malkin has also shown multiple times that he can carry this team basically by himself. Staal hasn't.

If Shero is forced to trade one of the big 3, it will be Staal all day. It would suck losing him, and I don't want to. But you hurt your team the least by trading Staal.


If the team needs better defense (and I believe you are one of the proponents here for better defensive play), why would they trade their best 2-way forward?
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