Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Forum for Pittsburgh Penguins-related messages.

Moderators: Three Stars, dagny, pfim, netwolf

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby mikey287 on Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:36 pm

steelhammer wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
steelhammer wrote:
mikey287 wrote:Yuck, Brodeur hiding behind the trap argument again...nasty business that. All I want to say (because I'm very tired of that nonsense) is that the Devils didn't really "trap" as their main method of forecheck since probably 2003 or so...but let's call it 2006 for your sake...Brodeur won two Vezina's out of his prime, without the trap, without Stevens AND Niedermayer (and one without Rafalski too I believe) and all that guff...

One would expect a noteworthy statistical turn-for-the-worst once the Devils opened up and lost two future HHOF, #1 d-men nearly consecutively...but, not only did it not happen, he also won two more Vezina's...and at 40 years old, he has his team in the Stanley Cup Finals with his #1 d-man being the error-prone Marek Zidlicky...

Not sure why you would rate Hiller so high, especially with that rebound control...yikes, it's bad...not a big fan of his, maybe if Allaire didn't get to him I'd think more of him...


I won't take anything away from his 06-07 season, and he DID do better later in his career, but all of those other Vezina's have asterisks beside them as he wasn't the best goalie in the league in any of those seasons (but GM's look at win totals and vote on reputation). I just don't see how you can write off other goalies and claim that they benefit from playing behind a defensive team, and here is the goalie that has benefited from that more than any other goalie in history and all of a sudden it's meaningless?

It's more than just the trap though, he also greatly benefits from his team taking so few penalties throughout his career. Take a look at 2000 through 2009:

Brodeur's teams: 232 goals, 25.9 shots against/60, 298 power plays against
Luongo's teams: 207 goals, 31.4 shots against/60, 403 power plays against
League average: 229 goals, 28.3 shots against/60, 370 power plays against

Imagine having to face 100 less powerplays per season than the goalies you are competing against? Those frequency distributions can obscure which goalie actually played better. During the 06-07 season, Brodeur ended with a .922 save percentage to Luongo's .921.

"A closer look shows that this was not because Brodeur played better, but rather was caused by a large discrepancy in special team play between the Canucks and Devils. Here are the save percentage splits for Brodeur and Luongo for each game situation (even strength / penalty kill / power play):

Martin Brodeur: .927 / .904 / .888
Roberto Luongo: .928 / .906 / .910

Luongo ranks ahead of Brodeur in every game situation. How can he possibly end up behind Marty in overall save percentage? The reason is that Vancouver took more penalties, meaning Luongo had to face 199 more shots on the penalty kill than Brodeur. If Luongo had faced Brodeur's shots, and vice versa, and both of them stopped the puck at exactly the same rates, Luongo's save percentage would have been .923, and Brodeur's would have been .920."

Finally, I think you are really overlooking the talent of Hiller. He has the best lateral movement in the league and is an absolute pleasure to watch play live in person. He chased both Giguere and Bryz out of Anaheim despite coming out of nowhere in Swiss league. His numbers speak for themself. Anyone who could play behind the Anaheim defense last season while actually trying to recover (not induce) vertigo deserves at least a little of your respect.


Respectfully, I'm kind of sick of defending Brodeur, but without reading it yet, I'm sure you have at least thought of a different angle...you're a goalie and you think and then speak...unlike most, who just talk out of various orifices...I'll just take it bit by bit and see what comes of it...

- "He did better later in his career", which I'm supposing is statistic based. In which case, it sounds like the trap was holding him back statistically. As he was out of his prime, on worse teams, in worse situations defensively and yet excelled more. Not expected results for someone that was "hiding".

- Asterisks next to Vezina's because...? The general managers vote on the Vezina, not the media, the guys that put together these 30 teams. While not infalliable, you'd like to believe they know more than the media...for perspective purposes during Thomas' "OMG, best evar" season in 2011, nearly half of all GMs didn't consider him the best goalie in the league and 4 didn't consider him top-3 in the league...so you know they have some sense in the sense that they aren't swept up by stats and media hoopla...but during Hasek's absolutely dominant 1998 season, he captured 24 of 26 first place votes (two 2nd place votes, thus appearing on all 26 ballots). So it seems like they can generally recognize greatness when they see it - generally.

Brodeur has a decisive victory in 2003 and then somewhat split decision victories in 2004, 2007 and 2008...but to that point, he was always punished for being on those Devils teams, sometimes even getting more or similar Hart love than/to Vezina love. I think he was runner-up to Hasek 3 times and I think (just going off of memory from previous debates) he has 6 top-4 finishes that are NOT wins. An impressive record. First or second-team all-star 7 times, not too shabby either.

He's always got skimped over for the Vezina in the heart of the trap years, but when it finally started to fall apart around him and all that was left was Brodeur and he actually statistically improved, then he started to get some real recognition. It kind of justified it all in the end. Are you suggesting that Brodeur should have won 0 Vezina trophies?

- I was hoping you would go here (re: goalies behind defensive teams). See, here's the thing, defensive systems aren't created equally. A coach doesn't have a menu in front of him and he clicks "defensive" and then the players go out and do it. Different systems are designed in different ways. It's advanced, but it doesn't give anyone an excuse to use their ignorance (no offense to you in particular) to their benefit.

Let's take the dreaded neutral zone trap. Briefly, clog up the neutral zone, prevent stretch passes and speed, force wide, force dump, puck retrieval (usually Brodeur), up the boards, out. Since the bulk of the defense occurs between the defensive blueline and the center line, shots are not taken. Low shot totals means lower save percentage, because the goals that do go in (breakdowns, power plays, etc.) are "worth more", so to speak. Also, generally speaking, when chances were given up, they were of high quality because it involved a breakdown (bad line change, bad read, etc.) and since it wasn't a collapse-first system, the defensive zone (attack team's offensive zone) wasn't quite as hard to navigate because the bulk of the players will be very, very high in the offensive zone or in the neutral zone. Which jives with Brodeur's modest career save pct. vs. other elite tenders (Hasek, for instance).

The reference to me railing against other goalies behind defensive systems but giving Brodeur a pass is explained as follows. Some defensive systems are designed to give up shots - as crazy as it sounds, shots against is not a measure of defensive prowess in today's game. Take the Bruins (who would have guessed) from last year (and years before) under Claude Julien. Look at where the action is, deeper in the defensive zone, lower in the neutral zone. Think about the changes to the game. Two-line pass rule is gone, obstruction is reduced (some chuckle, but it's true, even today). For the first time since 1942, a pass from your own goal line can be onside at the far blueline! It's too much pressure on the defensive players to try to stick with the rigidity of the traditional neutral zone trap if players are allowed to receive passes behind the "1" and the first "2" of the 1-2-2.

So now you "protect the house" and you'll hear a broadcaster or two refer to the house. Essentially, your goalie lives in said house. The Bruins set up in the mid-defensive zone, low neutral zone because they are set to collapse. Channel wide in the neutral zone just like the traditional NZT, but the difference is, the dump-in is no longer the forced play because the attacking team has gained the offensive blueline before the last line of defense closes the gap. Once the zone is gained, the far side winger is often charging towards the net (almost by default in today's game) - the play? Throw the puck on net low, hope to beat the last line of the defense back to their house and score on the rebound. Think about the cycle of a game. Think about how many shots are coming from way out there, 50, 55 feet out...and how many rebounds are swept away by a 6-foot-9, future HHOF defenseman. Scoring is down because, well, shots from 55 feet on the left wing boards don't go in (well, unless you're Paul Martin or Alex Burrows on Tim Thomas, if memory serves) and the rebounds are seldom gotten to. The design is to yield easy, low-quality shots, you (goalie) make the first save, we'll do the rest. Thus, a high save percentage. The old neutral zone trap (which, of course, pre-dates the Devils - and I don't mean the 90's Devils, I mean the Devils existence as a team) didn't necessarily have a goalie that could always stop the first shot...so, the idea of the old NZT was to not allow shots, period. Because shots could be goals at any time. Today, shots are likely not goals (I think to the tune of 92% of the time they are not going in on a starting goalie)

Power plays certainly have a major impact, good point. And it's a disadvantage for Luongo (who I'm not a hater of) to face all of those power play opportunities. But both goalies were able to stop them when faced with them (they finished 1-2 among starters in 2007 for PK save pct.; as opposed to Thomas who was ~15th in the same stat among goalies who played a quarter of the games or more in 2011). When Marty faced power play chances and stopped them, so did Luongo. The votes acknowledged this, it was nearly a split decision in 2007 for the Vezina. I'm not sure if it warrants an asterisk, so much as it asterisked itself by being so close (though, you seldom hear of an asterisk for Pronger's Hart in 2000, Theodore's Hart in 2002, Carey's Vezina in 1996 - but that could be attributable to no one caring but me :P )

Ah, I see you already did the leg work on the numbers (next time I'll read ahead). So basically what you've concluded is that it's as close as the stats look and justified the voters' near-split decision. Good show, but the same basic conclusions could have been rendered without any tinkering I feel. I think Luongo missed it by 1 first place vote (15 to 14) or so...not the crime of the century by any stretch...casual fans that count stats and trophies won't notice but won't be in a position to speak logically about it; historians will see clearly how close Luongo came to a Vezina and the legitimate beef he had for one was taken up by the league's GMs...it'll come out in the wash when we look back on it analytically, rest assured...not unlike Brad Park's 6 runner-up Norris jobs vs. Bobby Orr - we got it.

Re: Hiller. He's a solid starting goalie in this league, I don't view him as much more. The best lateral movement in the league notion is a little much I feel. Even if I don't know how much you watch the game, I can make two assumptions: you're watching these playoffs and have taken notice of Jonathan Quick...you post on LGP and are likely a Pens fans and have seen Marc-Andre Fleury...like him or lump him, he ranks highly in lateral movement and probably has the league's best shuffle ability. While it's noted that he chased both Giguere and Bryzgalov (more so, Giguere and more so, financially [plus his GM moved to a team that needed a goalie, but I'll concede the general point]), since chasing those two, have the Ducks made the playoffs? I don't believe so. Calling him an elite goalie would suggest that he could at least pilot a team to being 16th best in a league of 30 in any one of the past 3 seasons. Is there an instance where a certainly-elite 'tender has failed to qualify for the postseason in the last 3 straight seasons? I'm not trying to trash the guy, he's a fine goaltender, but I can't think of a way to really put the "elite" tag on him...he's a starter in this league (respect), he's not an elite one (no disrespect).


It's hard to say the trap was "holding him back" and at the same time acknowledge how many shutouts Brodeur the team was able to produce in that time period. No, I truly just believe that he became a better goalie later in his life. He never fully embraced the butterfly, so his style was much easier on his body (despite the number of games played) and he just used the experience to develop into a good goalie. What irks me is that people use that to just assume that he was always great, when really he was an above-average goalie playing in a very favorable defensive style for years. I'm sorry, but I can't buy that "trap holds back goalies stats" argument. There are simply too many cases of other goalies thriving those systems. That brings up a great point for his 2003 Vezina win, which I'm surprised you can use the word "decisive" with a straight face (though I know you were referencing the voting). I know you are not a stat guy, but consider his numbers vs Turco that season:

Brodeur: .914, 2.02, 9 SO
Turco: .932, 1.72, 7 SO

Those aren't even close. That GAA was an NHL record for the season. Brodeur got the Vezina simply because he played a lot of games and thus got a lot of wins. Could another goalie have filled in and had a similar numbers? The first time he missed significant time was 08-09 and here is how the season numbers ended up:

Brodeur: 19-9-3, 2.42, .916, 28.8 SA/60
Backups: 32-18-1, 2.40, .918, 29.3 SA/60

You'd think one of the supposedly greatest goalies of all-time could do a little better than Scott Clemmensen (yeah, that Scott Clemmensen). Honestly though, even though the 2007 may have been the most disputed, I don't have AS much of a problem with him winning that Vezina. It was close and he played excellent that season, and very well for a few seasons around that time. Again, just no need to pretend that he always played at that level. The team effects did nothing but give him every advantage possible in those earlier years. They were still a relatively defensive team after the lockout. Te brief crackdown on clutch n grab (dont forget how much blood the devils got from that turnip as well) and the new rules just changed how they could execute it.

Oh, and I for one will never forget about that Pronger Hart trophy or Theodore's. Total garbage. Instead though, it just taught me me to respect the Hart trophy that much less.

Yes, it's hard to deny Quick's lateral ability. Hiller's is something different though and Fleury doesn't even belong in the discussion to be honest. If you pay attention to Hiller live in person, he just floats across the ice like a ballerina (a complement, I hope). I can't even explain it much better than that, but he certainly has the most fluid and efficient movement in the butterfly. I can see why you would not take to him though as he fully embraces the robot goalie role.
Really unfair to judge him or most any goalie on the team's inability to make the playoffs. What more could Luongo or Vokoun do in Florida other than skate up the ice and try to score goals on their own? Like those goalies, Hiller has played about as well as he possibly could given the circumstances.

(sorry if I missed anything, tried to get this all typed out before work. did appreciate your response very much.)


Sorry, didn't get around this until now, let's see where we're at.

- Well "holding him bacK" was tongue-in-cheek against his statistical betterment at 35 or whatever when you'd expect any player to decline (especially one that's been in the league as long as he has and played as many games as he has (all time leader in games played by a goalie, he's played 10,000 more minutes than any other goalie ever, he's faced over 1500 more shots than any goalie ever, etc.). I don't believe he got better - in fact, I think his later years he wasn't quite as good as he was in the 1990's and early 2000's but faced more shots and like any other historically great goaltender - stopped them.

- Again, I thought he was far better than above average in his prime. Daren Puppa might have been above average, ya know...Martin Brodeur was a terrific performer for a long time. I wonder how much of this sentiment is statistic based, because I know you saw his career. Is it just psychological that you saw a team playing such good defense and just made it a point to make him out to be not as good? As a goalie yourself, I would expect one to marvel at his excellence and maybe the finest style since the merger plus being the finest puckhandler in history...he was a third defenseman and a goalie, terrific player.

- Well, then you know how I said it with a straight face if you knew I was referencing voting :) . Obviously the voters felt that 55 games simply wasn't enough. Also, Turco wasn't exactly playing behind a wide-open system - his coach was Dave Tippett that year. They only had one player with more than 55 points. But Turco was behind some tight D himself, look at these forwards: Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen, Jason Arnott, Ulf Dahlen, Niko Kapanen, Rob DiMaio, Stu Barnes, Claude Lemieux, Kirk Muller, Manny Malhotra...you got some backchecking there or what?

- I figured this was coming. 37 year old Martin Brodeur matches numbers with a former starter and a current split-time goaltender. I'm not fans of Weekes or Clemmensen, but Weekes is trying to keep his career alive and Clemmensen is basically trying to start his (this was an audition for his future), it's so inconceivable they squeaked out a decent half a year? At least one that's in line with a 37 year old goalie? While the numbers were equal, Brodeur did register a shutout every six starts when he played that year...those other two numbskulls combined for 2 in 52 combined starts. Worth anything?

Maybe if you had something in his prime with a good sample size I'd be more inclined to go down this road. But I don't see how half of the 2009 season has anything to do with Jacques Lemaire and the trap and his being protected a decade before...it seems like a non-sequitur argument...the beef with Marty was he benefitted from playing behind the trap in the late 90's and the proof is excavated out of the 2009 season? [Law & Order "dun, dun" sound effect] I think it's a cold case here, Barnaby Jones...

I mean, look at Patrick Roy when he was 37: 1.94 GAA, .925 save pct. --- David Aebischer: 1.88 GAA, .931 save pct. I mean, it's a fun game to play, but I'm not sure what it's proving exactly, to be both honest and respectful.

- Not respecting the Hart Trophy because Pronger (who was otherworldly that season) won it over a guy that missed a quarter of the games (how valuable can he be in games that he didn't play?) and Theodore tying Iginla for it when it was debated then and still debated to this day which one deserved it (even the voters themselves didn't distinguish) seems like a strange way to neglect a prestigious trophy that has been presented since 1923 if memory serves...but I can't say that I don't have my own quirks about things too...

- You're the goalie guy, I'm not going to try to microscope the pushing off of each goaltender in the league - to be perfectly honest, the finite technical things in goaltending are above my pay grade. I feel I have a decent grasp of the basics, I feel I have a decent eye for goalie talent at a base level (good prediction rate for guys making the show) but a goalie coach I am not. I'll concede the point.

- The only thing I will say about Hiller is that it's not goal scoring preventing him from making the playoffs, in the years he's failed to get his team into the postseason the Ducks were 8th, 11th, and 24th (yeah, this year they laid an egg) in goals for. By definition, that's above average offensive support.

Contrast that with Luongo who got (rank in terms of goals for): 24th, 27th, 29th, 23rd, 22nd; Vokoun got: 20th, 17th, 28th, 27th. So, roughly no offensive support.

Interestingly, two players that are not well-respected in this thread (Scott Clemmensen and Jose Theodore) worked the Panthers into a playoff team and division winner with a 25th ranked offense! :lol: That's statistics for ya, huh?
mikey287
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,115
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 6:40 pm
Location: Philadelphia, PA - @MichaelFarkasHF

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby steelhammer on Sat Jun 09, 2012 11:33 am

mikey287 wrote:
steelhammer wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
steelhammer wrote:
mikey287 wrote:Yuck, Brodeur hiding behind the trap argument again...nasty business that. All I want to say (because I'm very tired of that nonsense) is that the Devils didn't really "trap" as their main method of forecheck since probably 2003 or so...but let's call it 2006 for your sake...Brodeur won two Vezina's out of his prime, without the trap, without Stevens AND Niedermayer (and one without Rafalski too I believe) and all that guff...

One would expect a noteworthy statistical turn-for-the-worst once the Devils opened up and lost two future HHOF, #1 d-men nearly consecutively...but, not only did it not happen, he also won two more Vezina's...and at 40 years old, he has his team in the Stanley Cup Finals with his #1 d-man being the error-prone Marek Zidlicky...

Not sure why you would rate Hiller so high, especially with that rebound control...yikes, it's bad...not a big fan of his, maybe if Allaire didn't get to him I'd think more of him...


I won't take anything away from his 06-07 season, and he DID do better later in his career, but all of those other Vezina's have asterisks beside them as he wasn't the best goalie in the league in any of those seasons (but GM's look at win totals and vote on reputation). I just don't see how you can write off other goalies and claim that they benefit from playing behind a defensive team, and here is the goalie that has benefited from that more than any other goalie in history and all of a sudden it's meaningless?

It's more than just the trap though, he also greatly benefits from his team taking so few penalties throughout his career. Take a look at 2000 through 2009:

Brodeur's teams: 232 goals, 25.9 shots against/60, 298 power plays against
Luongo's teams: 207 goals, 31.4 shots against/60, 403 power plays against
League average: 229 goals, 28.3 shots against/60, 370 power plays against

Imagine having to face 100 less powerplays per season than the goalies you are competing against? Those frequency distributions can obscure which goalie actually played better. During the 06-07 season, Brodeur ended with a .922 save percentage to Luongo's .921.

"A closer look shows that this was not because Brodeur played better, but rather was caused by a large discrepancy in special team play between the Canucks and Devils. Here are the save percentage splits for Brodeur and Luongo for each game situation (even strength / penalty kill / power play):

Martin Brodeur: .927 / .904 / .888
Roberto Luongo: .928 / .906 / .910

Luongo ranks ahead of Brodeur in every game situation. How can he possibly end up behind Marty in overall save percentage? The reason is that Vancouver took more penalties, meaning Luongo had to face 199 more shots on the penalty kill than Brodeur. If Luongo had faced Brodeur's shots, and vice versa, and both of them stopped the puck at exactly the same rates, Luongo's save percentage would have been .923, and Brodeur's would have been .920."

Finally, I think you are really overlooking the talent of Hiller. He has the best lateral movement in the league and is an absolute pleasure to watch play live in person. He chased both Giguere and Bryz out of Anaheim despite coming out of nowhere in Swiss league. His numbers speak for themself. Anyone who could play behind the Anaheim defense last season while actually trying to recover (not induce) vertigo deserves at least a little of your respect.


Respectfully, I'm kind of sick of defending Brodeur, but without reading it yet, I'm sure you have at least thought of a different angle...you're a goalie and you think and then speak...unlike most, who just talk out of various orifices...I'll just take it bit by bit and see what comes of it...

- "He did better later in his career", which I'm supposing is statistic based. In which case, it sounds like the trap was holding him back statistically. As he was out of his prime, on worse teams, in worse situations defensively and yet excelled more. Not expected results for someone that was "hiding".

- Asterisks next to Vezina's because...? The general managers vote on the Vezina, not the media, the guys that put together these 30 teams. While not infalliable, you'd like to believe they know more than the media...for perspective purposes during Thomas' "OMG, best evar" season in 2011, nearly half of all GMs didn't consider him the best goalie in the league and 4 didn't consider him top-3 in the league...so you know they have some sense in the sense that they aren't swept up by stats and media hoopla...but during Hasek's absolutely dominant 1998 season, he captured 24 of 26 first place votes (two 2nd place votes, thus appearing on all 26 ballots). So it seems like they can generally recognize greatness when they see it - generally.

Brodeur has a decisive victory in 2003 and then somewhat split decision victories in 2004, 2007 and 2008...but to that point, he was always punished for being on those Devils teams, sometimes even getting more or similar Hart love than/to Vezina love. I think he was runner-up to Hasek 3 times and I think (just going off of memory from previous debates) he has 6 top-4 finishes that are NOT wins. An impressive record. First or second-team all-star 7 times, not too shabby either.

He's always got skimped over for the Vezina in the heart of the trap years, but when it finally started to fall apart around him and all that was left was Brodeur and he actually statistically improved, then he started to get some real recognition. It kind of justified it all in the end. Are you suggesting that Brodeur should have won 0 Vezina trophies?

- I was hoping you would go here (re: goalies behind defensive teams). See, here's the thing, defensive systems aren't created equally. A coach doesn't have a menu in front of him and he clicks "defensive" and then the players go out and do it. Different systems are designed in different ways. It's advanced, but it doesn't give anyone an excuse to use their ignorance (no offense to you in particular) to their benefit.

Let's take the dreaded neutral zone trap. Briefly, clog up the neutral zone, prevent stretch passes and speed, force wide, force dump, puck retrieval (usually Brodeur), up the boards, out. Since the bulk of the defense occurs between the defensive blueline and the center line, shots are not taken. Low shot totals means lower save percentage, because the goals that do go in (breakdowns, power plays, etc.) are "worth more", so to speak. Also, generally speaking, when chances were given up, they were of high quality because it involved a breakdown (bad line change, bad read, etc.) and since it wasn't a collapse-first system, the defensive zone (attack team's offensive zone) wasn't quite as hard to navigate because the bulk of the players will be very, very high in the offensive zone or in the neutral zone. Which jives with Brodeur's modest career save pct. vs. other elite tenders (Hasek, for instance).

The reference to me railing against other goalies behind defensive systems but giving Brodeur a pass is explained as follows. Some defensive systems are designed to give up shots - as crazy as it sounds, shots against is not a measure of defensive prowess in today's game. Take the Bruins (who would have guessed) from last year (and years before) under Claude Julien. Look at where the action is, deeper in the defensive zone, lower in the neutral zone. Think about the changes to the game. Two-line pass rule is gone, obstruction is reduced (some chuckle, but it's true, even today). For the first time since 1942, a pass from your own goal line can be onside at the far blueline! It's too much pressure on the defensive players to try to stick with the rigidity of the traditional neutral zone trap if players are allowed to receive passes behind the "1" and the first "2" of the 1-2-2.

So now you "protect the house" and you'll hear a broadcaster or two refer to the house. Essentially, your goalie lives in said house. The Bruins set up in the mid-defensive zone, low neutral zone because they are set to collapse. Channel wide in the neutral zone just like the traditional NZT, but the difference is, the dump-in is no longer the forced play because the attacking team has gained the offensive blueline before the last line of defense closes the gap. Once the zone is gained, the far side winger is often charging towards the net (almost by default in today's game) - the play? Throw the puck on net low, hope to beat the last line of the defense back to their house and score on the rebound. Think about the cycle of a game. Think about how many shots are coming from way out there, 50, 55 feet out...and how many rebounds are swept away by a 6-foot-9, future HHOF defenseman. Scoring is down because, well, shots from 55 feet on the left wing boards don't go in (well, unless you're Paul Martin or Alex Burrows on Tim Thomas, if memory serves) and the rebounds are seldom gotten to. The design is to yield easy, low-quality shots, you (goalie) make the first save, we'll do the rest. Thus, a high save percentage. The old neutral zone trap (which, of course, pre-dates the Devils - and I don't mean the 90's Devils, I mean the Devils existence as a team) didn't necessarily have a goalie that could always stop the first shot...so, the idea of the old NZT was to not allow shots, period. Because shots could be goals at any time. Today, shots are likely not goals (I think to the tune of 92% of the time they are not going in on a starting goalie)

Power plays certainly have a major impact, good point. And it's a disadvantage for Luongo (who I'm not a hater of) to face all of those power play opportunities. But both goalies were able to stop them when faced with them (they finished 1-2 among starters in 2007 for PK save pct.; as opposed to Thomas who was ~15th in the same stat among goalies who played a quarter of the games or more in 2011). When Marty faced power play chances and stopped them, so did Luongo. The votes acknowledged this, it was nearly a split decision in 2007 for the Vezina. I'm not sure if it warrants an asterisk, so much as it asterisked itself by being so close (though, you seldom hear of an asterisk for Pronger's Hart in 2000, Theodore's Hart in 2002, Carey's Vezina in 1996 - but that could be attributable to no one caring but me :P )

Ah, I see you already did the leg work on the numbers (next time I'll read ahead). So basically what you've concluded is that it's as close as the stats look and justified the voters' near-split decision. Good show, but the same basic conclusions could have been rendered without any tinkering I feel. I think Luongo missed it by 1 first place vote (15 to 14) or so...not the crime of the century by any stretch...casual fans that count stats and trophies won't notice but won't be in a position to speak logically about it; historians will see clearly how close Luongo came to a Vezina and the legitimate beef he had for one was taken up by the league's GMs...it'll come out in the wash when we look back on it analytically, rest assured...not unlike Brad Park's 6 runner-up Norris jobs vs. Bobby Orr - we got it.

Re: Hiller. He's a solid starting goalie in this league, I don't view him as much more. The best lateral movement in the league notion is a little much I feel. Even if I don't know how much you watch the game, I can make two assumptions: you're watching these playoffs and have taken notice of Jonathan Quick...you post on LGP and are likely a Pens fans and have seen Marc-Andre Fleury...like him or lump him, he ranks highly in lateral movement and probably has the league's best shuffle ability. While it's noted that he chased both Giguere and Bryzgalov (more so, Giguere and more so, financially [plus his GM moved to a team that needed a goalie, but I'll concede the general point]), since chasing those two, have the Ducks made the playoffs? I don't believe so. Calling him an elite goalie would suggest that he could at least pilot a team to being 16th best in a league of 30 in any one of the past 3 seasons. Is there an instance where a certainly-elite 'tender has failed to qualify for the postseason in the last 3 straight seasons? I'm not trying to trash the guy, he's a fine goaltender, but I can't think of a way to really put the "elite" tag on him...he's a starter in this league (respect), he's not an elite one (no disrespect).


It's hard to say the trap was "holding him back" and at the same time acknowledge how many shutouts Brodeur the team was able to produce in that time period. No, I truly just believe that he became a better goalie later in his life. He never fully embraced the butterfly, so his style was much easier on his body (despite the number of games played) and he just used the experience to develop into a good goalie. What irks me is that people use that to just assume that he was always great, when really he was an above-average goalie playing in a very favorable defensive style for years. I'm sorry, but I can't buy that "trap holds back goalies stats" argument. There are simply too many cases of other goalies thriving those systems. That brings up a great point for his 2003 Vezina win, which I'm surprised you can use the word "decisive" with a straight face (though I know you were referencing the voting). I know you are not a stat guy, but consider his numbers vs Turco that season:

Brodeur: .914, 2.02, 9 SO
Turco: .932, 1.72, 7 SO

Those aren't even close. That GAA was an NHL record for the season. Brodeur got the Vezina simply because he played a lot of games and thus got a lot of wins. Could another goalie have filled in and had a similar numbers? The first time he missed significant time was 08-09 and here is how the season numbers ended up:

Brodeur: 19-9-3, 2.42, .916, 28.8 SA/60
Backups: 32-18-1, 2.40, .918, 29.3 SA/60

You'd think one of the supposedly greatest goalies of all-time could do a little better than Scott Clemmensen (yeah, that Scott Clemmensen). Honestly though, even though the 2007 may have been the most disputed, I don't have AS much of a problem with him winning that Vezina. It was close and he played excellent that season, and very well for a few seasons around that time. Again, just no need to pretend that he always played at that level. The team effects did nothing but give him every advantage possible in those earlier years. They were still a relatively defensive team after the lockout. Te brief crackdown on clutch n grab (dont forget how much blood the devils got from that turnip as well) and the new rules just changed how they could execute it.

Oh, and I for one will never forget about that Pronger Hart trophy or Theodore's. Total garbage. Instead though, it just taught me me to respect the Hart trophy that much less.

Yes, it's hard to deny Quick's lateral ability. Hiller's is something different though and Fleury doesn't even belong in the discussion to be honest. If you pay attention to Hiller live in person, he just floats across the ice like a ballerina (a complement, I hope). I can't even explain it much better than that, but he certainly has the most fluid and efficient movement in the butterfly. I can see why you would not take to him though as he fully embraces the robot goalie role.
Really unfair to judge him or most any goalie on the team's inability to make the playoffs. What more could Luongo or Vokoun do in Florida other than skate up the ice and try to score goals on their own? Like those goalies, Hiller has played about as well as he possibly could given the circumstances.

(sorry if I missed anything, tried to get this all typed out before work. did appreciate your response very much.)


Gotta switch to the quote-by-quote style so I don't miss anything.

mikey287 wrote:Sorry, didn't get around this until now, let's see where we're at.

- Well "holding him bacK" was tongue-in-cheek against his statistical betterment at 35 or whatever when you'd expect any player to decline (especially one that's been in the league as long as he has and played as many games as he has (all time leader in games played by a goalie, he's played 10,000 more minutes than any other goalie ever, he's faced over 1500 more shots than any goalie ever, etc.). I don't believe he got better - in fact, I think his later years he wasn't quite as good as he was in the 1990's and early 2000's but faced more shots and like any other historically great goaltender - stopped them.


While it is true that most goalies decline around 35, there are plenty of cases of goalies having their best years around that time or even later. Thanks for making me bring up Tim Thomas, really appreciate it :evil: Back to Brodeur, look at his numbers in different eras of his careers:

98-99 through 01-02. .908 sv% seeing 24.2 shots/game. The league average during that time period was .907.

06-07 through 09-10. .919 sv% seeing 27.4 shots/game. The league average over that time period was .908.

mikey287 wrote:- Again, I thought he was far better than above average in his prime. Daren Puppa might have been above average, ya know...Martin Brodeur was a terrific performer for a long time. I wonder how much of this sentiment is statistic based, because I know you saw his career. Is it just psychological that you saw a team playing such good defense and just made it a point to make him out to be not as good? As a goalie yourself, I would expect one to marvel at his excellence and maybe the finest style since the merger plus being the finest puckhandler in history...he was a third defenseman and a goalie, terrific player.


How would you define far better than average? Throughout his entire career, his even-strength sv% was only 0.004 above the average of the entire NHL over that time period. That is against every starter, backup, emergency call-up, etc. It just doesn't equate to any kind of dominating performance. He was simply above average for a very long time with some really good seasons here and there. http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2012/05/28/martin-brodeur-a-little-above-average-for-a-very-long-time/

Again though, he did this in front of a very stingy defense that constantly ranks at the top in terms of lowest shots allowed and lowest quality shots allowed. Yes, there has been a lot of studies that attempt to quantify shot quality and, as expected, New Jersey is always at the top in terms of easiest shots: http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Goal_Prevention_2004.pdf
http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/SQ-RS0910-Krzywicki.pdf

mikey287 wrote:- Well, then you know how I said it with a straight face if you knew I was referencing voting :) . Obviously the voters felt that 55 games simply wasn't enough. Also, Turco wasn't exactly playing behind a wide-open system - his coach was Dave Tippett that year. They only had one player with more than 55 points. But Turco was behind some tight D himself, look at these forwards: Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen, Jason Arnott, Ulf Dahlen, Niko Kapanen, Rob DiMaio, Stu Barnes, Claude Lemieux, Kirk Muller, Manny Malhotra...you got some backchecking there or what?


Yes, Turco played behind a heavy defensive system as well. But we are not splitting hairs here. .914 in New Jersey that season was a hell of a lot easier to achieve than Turco's .932 on the Stars. Again, those two performances aren't on the same level at all. Brodeur simply played a lot of games (a coach's decision) and his performance highlights are simply those of someone playing a lot of games.

mikey287 wrote:- I figured this was coming. 37 year old Martin Brodeur matches numbers with a former starter and a current split-time goaltender. I'm not fans of Weekes or Clemmensen, but Weekes is trying to keep his career alive and Clemmensen is basically trying to start his (this was an audition for his future), it's so inconceivable they squeaked out a decent half a year? At least one that's in line with a 37 year old goalie? While the numbers were equal, Brodeur did register a shutout every six starts when he played that year...those other two numbskulls combined for 2 in 52 combined starts. Worth anything?


Actually, Brodeur was 36 that season. This isn't picking cherries, this was the fist time since he was the established starter that he played less than 67 games (he usually played close to 75). It was the first time you got to see what the backups could do in a reasonable sample size. Brodeur didn't even have a bad year by any means, but it showed how much easier it was for two non-NHL starting goalies to have a good year as well. Goaltending just tends to be easier in New Jersey than most other teams. The shutout rate might be worth something. You should look back to the history of backups in New Jersey though. The shutout rate for backups is much much higher than that of other teams (that year being an ironic anomaly, of course).

mikey287 wrote:Maybe if you had something in his prime with a good sample size I'd be more inclined to go down this road. But I don't see how half of the 2009 season has anything to do with Jacques Lemaire and the trap and his being protected a decade before...it seems like a non-sequitur argument...the beef with Marty was he benefitted from playing behind the trap in the late 90's and the proof is excavated out of the 2009 season? [Law & Order "dun, dun" sound effect] I think it's a cold case here, Barnaby Jones...


Again, I put up some studies above that STRONGLY SUGGEST that, while the trap was not the same after the lockout, the Devils shot quality against was still among the best in the league. Brodeur's playoff performances though were actually a little worse though and those extra shots didn't seem to help him all that much:

1999-'03: 1.84 GAA, .917 save %, 22.3 SA/60 (LgAvg: 2.22, .916, 26.5)
2004-09: 2.51 GAA, .915 save %, 29.7 SA/60 (LgAvg: 2.40, .915, 28.3)

See how the trap helped him?

mikey287 wrote:I mean, look at Patrick Roy when he was 37: 1.94 GAA, .925 save pct. --- David Aebischer: 1.88 GAA, .931 save pct. I mean, it's a fun game to play, but I'm not sure what it's proving exactly, to be both honest and respectful.


Come on now, no hits below that belt. That was a low blow.

mikey287 wrote:- Not respecting the Hart Trophy because Pronger (who was otherworldly that season) won it over a guy that missed a quarter of the games (how valuable can he be in games that he didn't play?) and Theodore tying Iginla for it when it was debated then and still debated to this day which one deserved it (even the voters themselves didn't distinguish) seems like a strange way to neglect a prestigious trophy that has been presented since 1923 if memory serves...but I can't say that I don't have my own quirks about things too...


Don't make me bring up the 88-89 season, again. You know how I feel.

mikey287 wrote:- You're the goalie guy, I'm not going to try to microscope the pushing off of each goaltender in the league - to be perfectly honest, the finite technical things in goaltending are above my pay grade. I feel I have a decent grasp of the basics, I feel I have a decent eye for goalie talent at a base level (good prediction rate for guys making the show) but a goalie coach I am not. I'll concede the point.


All I can say is watch Hiller a little closer next time. You will see things from him that no one else in the league is capable of doing, yet. Quick could certainly be taking over that title though.

mikey287 wrote:- The only thing I will say about Hiller is that it's not goal scoring preventing him from making the playoffs, in the years he's failed to get his team into the postseason the Ducks were 8th, 11th, and 24th (yeah, this year they laid an egg) in goals for. By definition, that's above average offensive support.

Contrast that with Luongo who got (rank in terms of goals for): 24th, 27th, 29th, 23rd, 22nd; Vokoun got: 20th, 17th, 28th, 27th. So, roughly no offensive support.


And their team was 29th and 27th, respectively in shots against in those first two seasons you noted. Despite being among the league leaders in sv%, he was simply burdened with too many shots. Additionally, he played 59 games in the first season and only 49 games the the 2nd because of the injury (which affected his numbers in a couple games before being completely shut down). Yes, Luongo and Vokoun had it worse though.

mikey287 wrote:Interestingly, two players that are not well-respected in this thread (Scott Clemmensen and Jose Theodore) worked the Panthers into a playoff team and division winner with a 25th ranked offense! :lol: That's statistics for ya, huh?


Another low blow! I thought you were better than that, Mikey. :wink:
steelhammer
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,279
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:31 am
Location: Hold on, I have a stat for that.

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby firepower on Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:04 pm

Well that solves the goaltending issues. Just add some size, both up front and on the D, and make sure one or two of those Dmen have a cannon for a shot, and should be set.
firepower
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 2:26 pm

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Defence21 on Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:47 pm

firepower wrote:Well that solves the goaltending issues. Just add some size, both up front and on the D, and make sure one or two of those Dmen have a cannon for a shot, and should be set.

You know, I'm sure this won't be popular, and I know it's been mentioned before, but I would love to see a bad contract for bad contract trade sending Martin to TB for Malone. Each have three years remaining on their contracts, and Malone's cap hit is $500,000 less. It's not a significant savings, but it's not terrible, either. Malone provides a big body (though admittedly on the severe decline) capable of playing on a scoring line. He's got health issues and isn't the player he was when he last laced up the black and gold, but bringing him back to the Burgh might rejuvenate him to an extent -- and as long as the Penguins have a third liner capable of bumping into a scoring role when/if he gets hurt, he'd be a nice fit. For TB, they get a smooth skating, puck moving defenseman who has played significantly better in his career while in a structured defensive system. He'd fit great into Boucher's 1-3-1.

I would envision lines as such:

Malone-Malkin-Neal
Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Tangradi-Vitale-Adams
Asham

Letang-Orpik
Michalek-Despres
Niskanen-Engelland
Bortuzzo-Strait

Fleury
Vokoun
Defence21
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,831
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 11:01 pm
Location: Johnstown, PA

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby skullman80 on Sat Jun 09, 2012 1:39 pm

I don't want Malone back at all.
skullman80
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 18,816
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 12:55 pm
Location: New Kensington, PA

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby KG on Sat Jun 09, 2012 1:59 pm

Defence21 wrote:
firepower wrote:Well that solves the goaltending issues. Just add some size, both up front and on the D, and make sure one or two of those Dmen have a cannon for a shot, and should be set.

You know, I'm sure this won't be popular, and I know it's been mentioned before, but I would love to see a bad contract for bad contract trade sending Martin to TB for Malone. Each have three years remaining on their contracts, and Malone's cap hit is $500,000 less. It's not a significant savings, but it's not terrible, either. Malone provides a big body (though admittedly on the severe decline) capable of playing on a scoring line. He's got health issues and isn't the player he was when he last laced up the black and gold, but bringing him back to the Burgh might rejuvenate him to an extent -- and as long as the Penguins have a third liner capable of bumping into a scoring role when/if he gets hurt, he'd be a nice fit. For TB, they get a smooth skating, puck moving defenseman who has played significantly better in his career while in a structured defensive system. He'd fit great into Boucher's 1-3-1.

I would envision lines as such:

Malone-Malkin-Neal
Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Tangradi-Vitale-Adams
Asham

Letang-Orpik
Michalek-Despres
Niskanen-Engelland
Bortuzzo-Strait

Fleury
Vokoun



I don't disagree with a Malone/Martin potential deal. I just think it's time for a change. No more Crosby/Kunitz/Dupuis and Staal/Cooke/Kennedy lines...

I think it's time to change up the dynamic a little bit. New blood...
KG
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 11,971
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 11:53 am
Location: NY

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Pavel Bure on Sat Jun 09, 2012 8:08 pm

Do not want Malone
Pavel Bure
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,290
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:15 pm
Location: http://freebitco.in/?r=289635 get bitcoins

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby columbia on Sat Jun 09, 2012 8:10 pm

Assuming that they are determined to trade Martin:

Malone isn't the worst idea, but a pick would be preferable.
columbia
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 45,860
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:13 am

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby MRandall25 on Sat Jun 09, 2012 8:14 pm

columbia wrote:Assuming that they are determined to trade Martin:

Malone isn't the worst idea, but a pick would be preferable.


Right, because any team is going to want to take on $5 mil in salary without giving any back... :roll:
MRandall25
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,721
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2011 6:11 pm
Location: BOBROVSKY!!!

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby canaan on Sun Jun 10, 2012 12:56 pm

MRandall25 wrote:
columbia wrote:Assuming that they are determined to trade Martin:

Malone isn't the worst idea, but a pick would be preferable.


Right, because any team is going to want to take on $5 mil in salary without giving any back... :roll:

its not out of the realm of possibility as some teams will need to take on salary to reach the cap floor.
canaan
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 38,692
Joined: Tue May 30, 2006 11:13 am
Location: Fritos. On. My. Sub.

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby SolidSnake on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:05 pm

I hope they get Malone back, I can bring out my Malone jersey again
SolidSnake
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 19,127
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:41 pm
Location: Winners don't use drugs.- William S. Sessions.

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Froggy on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:21 pm

canaan wrote:
MRandall25 wrote:
columbia wrote:Assuming that they are determined to trade Martin:

Malone isn't the worst idea, but a pick would be preferable.


Right, because any team is going to want to take on $5 mil in salary without giving any back... :roll:

its not out of the realm of possibility as some teams will need to take on salary to reach the cap floor.


to continue the circular argument... why would martin waive his NTC to go to a team that is struggling to meet the cap floor?
Froggy
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,575
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:40 pm
Location: http://DrunkInAGraveyard.com

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby canaan on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:42 pm

I try not to speculate on player feelings/emotions so I couldn't tell you why he would or if he even cares about that, as teams can still be competitive in that scenario
canaan
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 38,692
Joined: Tue May 30, 2006 11:13 am
Location: Fritos. On. My. Sub.

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Sarcastic on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:42 pm

mikey and whoever likes stats. What do you think of these numbers? I never know what to think of statistics and I don't think one should rely on them too much. But. Well, there's always a but. Look at this. Voukun :thumb:. Fleury :thumbdown:.

:?:

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2012/4/18/2955041/fleury-of-goals
Sarcastic
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 15,283
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:49 pm

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Froggy on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:52 pm

stats are absolute garbage when used in a vacuum for evaluating goalies. don't even get me started on the flaws of comparing a starter to his backup.
Froggy
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,575
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:40 pm
Location: http://DrunkInAGraveyard.com

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Sarcastic on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:55 pm

Froggy wrote:stats are absolute garbage when used in a vacuum for evaluating goalies. don't even get me started on the flaws of comparing a starter to his backup.


Well. I would like to get you started. Go ahead.
Sarcastic
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 15,283
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:49 pm

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Froggy on Sun Jun 10, 2012 2:59 pm

cliff's notes version: backups play fewer games against generally weaker teams. smaller sample size+weaker competition=inflated stats...
Froggy
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,575
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:40 pm
Location: http://DrunkInAGraveyard.com

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Rylan on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:01 pm

The reason stats look bad is the fact that fleury started games since he was 18. At 27 he I is just now reaching when he should be starting to prove he should be elite. For the entire regular season he established his importance. People are taking a 6 to 10 game stretch to define a player.

Through out the season the Pens streaked. But there were 2 constants. Malkin did the offense and Fleury made sure that what Malkin did was enough. The Pens were an average hockey team who had two players make up the bulk of the work for wins. Despite a porous defense that allowed players to walk in alone with Flower, and he bailed them out. But he (along with 2 superstars and a supporting cast) lost 4 hockey games. Regroup and wreak havoc next year.
Rylan
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 15,995
Joined: Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:07 am
Location: Dead and Without Love

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Sarcastic on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:10 pm

Froggy wrote:cliff's notes version: backups play fewer games against generally weaker teams. smaller sample size+weaker competition=inflated stats...


I get that and I admit I am not a stats guy - I think some look too closely at those when evaluating players - but they are still worth something. If only to give you a general picture.

I don't get why you are bringing up the starter/backup thing, though. Look at the number of games for both goalies. They're both starters to me.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/1541/career;_ylt=Ar9lYa671hqKlrMP4IWneXFivLYF
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/3341/career;_ylt=Ar9lYa671hqKlrMP4IWneXFivLYF
Last edited by Sarcastic on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sarcastic
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 15,283
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:49 pm

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby penny lane on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:10 pm

drat~ I thought Draftnik had returned! :P 8-) :wink:
penny lane
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 28,492
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 6:29 pm
Location: Summer sunshine heals!

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Sarcastic on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:11 pm

penny lane wrote:drat~ I thought Draftnik had returned! :P 8-) :wink:


Someone send him a PM and ask him wtf he went.
Sarcastic
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 15,283
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:49 pm

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Froggy on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:15 pm

Sarcastic wrote:
Froggy wrote:cliff's notes version: backups play fewer games against generally weaker teams. smaller sample size+weaker competition=inflated stats...


I get that and I admit I am not a stats guy - I think some look too closely at those when evaluating players - but they are still worth something. If only to give you a general picture.

I don't get why you are bringing up the starter/backup thing, though. Look at the number of games for both goalies. They're both starters to me.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/1541/career;_ylt=Ar9lYa671hqKlrMP4IWneXFivLYF
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/3341/career;_ylt=Ar9lYa671hqKlrMP4IWneXFivLYF



one of the stats that site used was starter's numbers vs their backups. i won't say it's apples and oranges, but it is apples to a different kind of apples
Froggy
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,575
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:40 pm
Location: http://DrunkInAGraveyard.com

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Froggy on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:17 pm

also, my biggest issue with goalie stats is that a slow dribbler from 50 feet out is worth the same as making a save on a breakaway. until there is a formula accounting for shot quality (which can't really be done since it's pretty subjective) goalie stats will never tell the whole story
Froggy
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,575
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:40 pm
Location: http://DrunkInAGraveyard.com

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby Sarcastic on Sun Jun 10, 2012 3:26 pm

Froggy wrote:also, my biggest issue with goalie stats is that a slow dribbler from 50 feet out is worth the same as making a save on a breakaway. until there is a formula accounting for shot quality (which can't really be done since it's pretty subjective) goalie stats will never tell the whole story


I agree on that, but that's mostly over a small sample of games. I'll even give you a year. When you look at numbers over several years, however, you are able to get a general sense and a somewhat accurate picture. The biggest drawback to goalie stats for me is the kind of team/defense the goalie has in front of him. Still, I can't completely dismiss statistics.

That's why I'd like someone who does like them to look at those and tell me what they think.
Sarcastic
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 15,283
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:49 pm

Re: Penguins acquire rights to Vokoun.

Postby steelhammer on Sun Jun 10, 2012 4:26 pm

Sarcastic wrote:mikey and whoever likes stats. What do you think of these numbers? I never know what to think of statistics and I don't think one should rely on them too much. But. Well, there's always a but. Look at this. Voukun :thumb:. Fleury :thumbdown:.

:?:

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2012/4/18/2955041/fleury-of-goals


That was a very fair and accurate article in regards to Fleury's career so far. I think what many fans don't acknowledge is that the talent pool of goaltending has grown every year and there are indeed a lot of good goaltenders in the league. It's tempting to want to dismiss the stats because we watch all of the Penguin games and know how good Fleury can be. The honest truth though is that there are simply a lot of better goaltenders than him in the league who stop a higher percentage of shots on a more consistent basis. There is no reason to dismiss the possibility of Fleury becoming one of the best in the league, but it looks less likely each year as his performance curve is more accurately represented by a roller coaster than that of a steadily increasing line. If I was to give him a Hockey's Future rating, it would probably be 9.0 D. That's just my opinion/observation, but it seems to be a more common one outside of Pittsburgh.
steelhammer
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,279
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:31 am
Location: Hold on, I have a stat for that.

PreviousNext

Return to Pittsburgh Penguins

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hugo Stiglitz, lemieuxReturns, meow, stopper40 and 15 guests

e-mail