Lockout

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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:59 am

According to Forbes (it has some flaws, its numbers are estimates) from the 2010-11, there was approximately an aggregate profit of $135 million. Yet, the three "rich" teams combined for $173.5 million. That's astounding. When you add the next three richest teams in terms of profit, $231 million.

The plurality(13) of teams "break even," meaning their franchise is about stable, their net worth is good, and they make between 8 and -8 million dollars a year depending on how much they spend. They really don't need help; they could likely spend less and break even.

By my estimation, 11 teams need help. These teams are not worth as much as the "break-even" teams and they are losing money with low salaries (NJ may be an exception that belongs in the break even teams). Regardless, these are the teams that need some subsidies.

Phoenix, simply put, needs to go. Dear God.

That leaves the break even teams to work with the teams that need help to form a solid 24-team majority to figure out a way to direct about 70 million dollars to the teams that need help. Of course, it won't be that easy. The degree of help one needs is not necessarily correlated to their salary---Pittsburgh is not in that solid of a financial spot despite spending the cap.

Filthy Rich Teams
Toronto - Value: $521m ; Profit: $81.8
New York - $507; $41.4
Montreal - $445; $47.7
=173.5m

Rich Teams
Vancouver: 300; 23.5
Edmonton: 212, 17.3 (a bit enigmatic)
=40.8m

Break-Even Teams (w/ varying degrees of salary)
Detroit: 336, 6.3
Chicago: 306, 8.7
Boston: 325, 2.7
Philadelphia: 290, 3.2
Pittsburgh: 264, -.2
Los Angeles: 232, -2
Dallas: 230, -1.1
Washington: 225, -7.5
Calgary: 220, 1.1
Minnesota: 213, -5.9
San Jose: 211, -7.8
Ottawa: 201, 2.8
Colorado: 198, 6.1
= 7.6m

Struggling Teams (Low-Worth, Low-Profit, Low-Salary)
Anaheim: 184, -8.4
New Jersey: 181, -6.1
Tampa: 174, -8.4
Buffalo: 173, -5.6
Carolina: 169, -4.4
Winnipeg: 164, -5.2
Nashville: 163, -7.5
Florida: 162, -7
St. Louis: 157, -2.7
Columbus: 152, -13.7
Long Island: 149, -8.1
= (-77.1)

Piece of Crap
Phoenix: 134, -24.4
= (-24.4)

EDIT: I recategorized some teams, that threw the number off a bit.
Last edited by TheHammer24 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Lockout

Postby mikey287 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:15 pm

Forbes doesn't have access to these numbers, so they are just estimates (in some cases, guesses I feel)...fine for discussion, but I'm not sure I consider Forbes a definitive source of this information. Which isn't to say you said they were either, but I think it's worth noting.

Additionally, Detroit is listed twice with different numbers.

Should be noted that the CBA would be ratified by the owners, AIUI, with Bettman plus a simple majority (Bettman + 16 teams) or a super-majority without Bettman (23 teams w/o Bettman).
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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:20 pm

You are right about Forbes. Just look at their estimate of the Dodgers and what the Dodgers actually sold for. But I suspect the point still holds, at least for discussion sake. There are two large groups, a handful of rich teams, and Phoenix.
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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:38 pm

Players' proposal offers very limited ability to give distressed teams extra draft picks and the ability to sell up to $4 million in extra cap space.

Aaron Ward ‏@aaronward_nhl

VERY limited and only available to teams in need. #TSN #CBA
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21m Aaron Ward Aaron Ward ‏@aaronward_nhl

be permitted to trade/sell up to $4 million in cap space to another team giving the team a way of getting another 'paycheck'.This would be
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21m Aaron Ward Aaron Ward ‏@aaronward_nhl

the pick itself would serve the purpose of helping to revitalize a team.Lastly,a franchise in distress under special circumstances,would
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21m Aaron Ward Aaron Ward ‏@aaronward_nhl

mutually agreed upon by NHL/NHLPA on case by case basis with the intent to target the market/team in need.This would be very limited but
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21m Aaron Ward Aaron Ward ‏@aaronward_nhl

financial responsibility in the PARTNERSHIP.The extra draft pick for teams in financial trouble is very discretionary and would be
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Re: Lockout

Postby MarioLives on Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:23 pm

So if I am reading this right the pens only make 200k a year in profit? Despite the sellouts and how good they have been? That is scary with the cap going up and that little of margin
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Re: Lockout

Postby the wicked child on Wed Aug 15, 2012 4:51 pm

The idea of a team being able to sell cap space is troubling to me.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Antonio on Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:00 pm

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/82719 ... abor-talks

Still not sounding good...

My thoughts...50/50 revenue split. Keep salary arbitration and UFA as they are. Do it. But no...we need to cry and whine over our billions of dollars.
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Re: Lockout

Postby brwi on Wed Aug 15, 2012 7:12 pm

Wow...never would have thought that Don Fehr would be the mature voice of reason and moderation while Bettman turned into a shrill goof.

Bettman and the owners are playing a game of chicken that could easily turn the hardcore fans against them in a hurry. Bettman's PR skills frankly have been a lot better than what we are seeing now and he might just want to shut up.
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Re: Lockout

Postby KG on Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:24 pm

Something tells me this isn't going to be resolved within 30 days....................
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Re: Lockout

Postby Bioshock on Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:46 pm

KG wrote:Something tells me this isn't going to be resolved within 30 days....................


I think that "Something" is common sense.
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Re: Lockout

Postby netwolf on Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:21 pm

One man's look at the PA proposal, and why it may not be as great a first offer as widely thought:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2012/08/ ... _proposal/
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Re: Lockout

Postby Antonio on Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:29 pm

I have always thought that the PA proposal is not good at all from an owners perspective. I am not sure why people think that it is a good and reasonable offer. They basically are banking on the league revenues continuing to grow and they are not really giving up anything.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Antonio on Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:35 pm

KG wrote:Something tells me this isn't going to be resolved within 30 days....................


That is because it isn't going to be. I have been expecting a lockout for weeks...mainly because that seems to always be what happens with the NHL. Like I have said..I have zero sympathy for either side....just children fighting over a ridiculous amount of money and no one is ever rich enough. Players...you play a game for a living and even at the league minimum in one year you make what the average family in the country makes in about 10 years. Owners...you whine and cry about the costs of running a team, but no one forced you to buy a team and get into the business, and spiralling costs are your fault. No one is making you offer players these insane deals. You drive your own inflation. The idea that we discuss Shane Doan making $7 million a year is beyond mind boggling. Billions of $$$ at stake and no one can just be happy with their oversized chunk of $...and of course..screw the actual people who give you every one of those $ that you are quibbling over. Just split the damn thing 50 50 down the middle forever and be done with it.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Zach6668 on Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:38 pm

MarioLives wrote:So if I am reading this right the pens only make 200k a year in profit? Despite the sellouts and how good they have been? That is scary with the cap going up and that little of margin



But the value of the franchise has gone up dramatically, which is the key figure for most sports teams, excluding big market money machines like the Leafs, Habs, and probably most of the NFL because it's so popular.
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Re: Lockout

Postby westside on Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:26 pm

Bioshock wrote:
KG wrote:Something tells me this isn't going to be resolved within 30 days....................


I think that "Something" is common sense.


I think this was just a not so subtle f u to the ridiculous first offer by the owners. They came back pretty far the other way. I think that now both parties have made a line in the sand they can work to some middle ground. Unfortunately there will probably be a lot of posturing and stuff but I'll try to stay optimistic until we get a lot closer to the date.
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Re: Lockout

Postby penny lane on Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:54 am

my favorite rite of the fall; penguins training camp will also be a lockout casualty. :(
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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:39 pm

This is why I have to give the players' the vote:

No wonder Crosby thought the players’ plan was great — it means the contract he signed this summer will be worth $104.4 million, not the discounted version worth $76.6 million the owners would like to pay him under their proposal.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Antonio on Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:52 pm

Why? Because they, like the owners want more money? They are not any different.
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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:55 pm

Antonio wrote:Why? Because they, like the owners want more money? They are not any different.

No, that's not what I said. They both want a lot of money, but I don't get how the owners sign these contracts and then go, oh crap, we didn't have the money to do that. We're going to pay you nothing unless you give us back 24% of what we already promised to pay you.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Antonio on Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:20 pm

Yeah but...part of the problem is certain teams who have more $$$ offering higher amounts for players that should not command it, which drives prices higher. The other teams, some of which can't or don't want to pay the higher amounts become forced to match offers or give out similar ones just to stay competitive, driving prices up. Not every team is spending irresponsibly and then complaining, although I am CERTAINLY not saying the owners are not overall largely to blame for that issue. However, the players are just as bad. They try to squeeze every last dime out of their deals (as they SHOULD..any logical actor in such a system would) for playing a GAME for living. The problem is that every side wants more more more...since that is what they would logically want...but illogically, they are going to destroy the whole pie while they fight over the biggest piece. The player offer was just as much crap as the owners offer was.
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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:53 pm

Antonio wrote:Yeah but...part of the problem is certain teams who have more $$$ offering higher amounts for players that should not command it, which drives prices higher. The other teams, some of which can't or don't want to pay the higher amounts become forced to match offers or give out similar ones just to stay competitive, driving prices up. Not every team is spending irresponsibly and then complaining, although I am CERTAINLY not saying the owners are not overall largely to blame for that issue. However, the players are just as bad. They try to squeeze every last dime out of their deals (as they SHOULD..any logical actor in such a system would) for playing a GAME for living. The problem is that every side wants more more more...since that is what they would logically want...but illogically, they are going to destroy the whole pie while they fight over the biggest piece. The player offer was just as much crap as the owners offer was.

Doesn't that mean the rich owners are injuring the poor owners, which can be fixed by the rich owners compensating the poor owners instead of forcing the players to make everyone richer.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Mongoose87 on Thu Aug 16, 2012 5:12 pm

If they had a decent revenue sharing scheme, not only would escalating prices not be a problem, but overall revenues would increase, as teams would fare better when they're actually competitive.
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Re: Lockout

Postby marek on Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:38 am

So... Could someone with a solid CBA/ cap knowledge explain how based on the owners offer of:

"the salary cap would drop to $50.8 million next season, which is below where the floor currently rests." - per TSN

numerous teams could possibly get to this cap level??? Would present player contracts get restructured? Discounted or taxed somehow?

asking a player that signed a "big $ career contract" to accept 70 cents on the dollar so that Phoenix can stay in Phoenix is not going to happen.
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Re: Lockout

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:27 am

- Amnesty buyouts (see: 2005)
- Rollback of salaries by an agreed upon percentage (see: 2005)
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Re: Lockout

Postby TheHammer24 on Fri Aug 17, 2012 12:24 pm

marek wrote:So... Could someone with a solid CBA/ cap knowledge explain how based on the owners offer of:

"the salary cap would drop to $50.8 million next season, which is below where the floor currently rests." - per TSN

numerous teams could possibly get to this cap level??? Would present player contracts get restructured? Discounted or taxed somehow?

asking a player that signed a "big $ career contract" to accept 70 cents on the dollar so that Phoenix can stay in Phoenix is not going to happen.

Agree
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