Lockout

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Re: Lockout

Postby RPKJr429 on Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:36 pm

pressure=9Pa wrote:
RPKJr429 wrote:
newarenanow wrote:
Gaucho wrote:I guess there really is no reason to believe they'll reach an agreement much earlier than January 11.


I think it's definitely going to last minute.


I recently picked up my old copy of "Thinking Strategically" from my game theory class. 3 chapters in and a lot of their back-and-forth behavior started to make sense. No doubt it will go down to the wire.


Was this book by chance written by a guy named Aliprantis (sp?)? He was my Game Theory professor, and was authored several books. Strange guy.


Looks like it was authored by Dixit, Avinash, and Nalebuff. Its more novel sized than a school text, but it has examples/case studies so it worked pretty well.
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Re: Lockout

Postby no name on Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:46 pm

2 buyouts are a bit exreem, you should be penaltizing teams for foolish spending, not giving them a pat on the back, saying "well let it pass this time"

ANd how do buyouts occure, you buy out a players contract, give him all that mioney then he is free to sign with another team making more money on top of it???

Pens get nothing from this, Sure Martin hasn't performed like a 5 million dollar defenceman, but there aen't many quality replacements out there for around that money.
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Re: Lockout

Postby shmenguin on Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:50 pm

Depends if depres can make a big leap and niskanen shows he can handle 20 minutes. If both are proven to be true over the half season plus playoffs, you can reluctantly ditch Martin
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Re: Lockout

Postby MRandall25 on Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:57 pm

If they're supposed to be compliance buyouts, then should the only teams using them be the teams who will be over the cap?
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Re: Lockout

Postby ExPatriatePen on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:00 pm

MRandall25 wrote:If they're supposed to be compliance buyouts, then should the only teams using them be the teams who will be over the cap?


One would think so... but it sure wouldn't be hard to "cook the books" by signing a UFA and then declaring you're "over the cap" right?
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Re: Lockout

Postby DudeMan2766 on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:01 pm

no name wrote:Pens get nothing from this, Sure Martin hasn't performed like a 5 million dollar defenceman, but there aen't many quality replacements out there for around that money.


Yeah, I dont get that. Martin isn't that bad that the Pens need to give him 5 mil to go away then throw at minimum another 4 million to get a decent dman to take his place.
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Re: Lockout

Postby joopen on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:12 pm

You would almost HAVE to ditch Martin for nothing other than to clear room for warm bodies. There are 7 forwards under contract beyond this year who have any NHL experience. You have 5 defensemen including Martin. They would have a total of $8million or so to fill the roster for next year @ $60 million. The next 2 highest salaries are Kunitz and Orpik (excluding MAF, Sid, Geno, and Neal).
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Re: Lockout

Postby joopen on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:15 pm

DudeMan2766 wrote:
no name wrote:Pens get nothing from this, Sure Martin hasn't performed like a 5 million dollar defenceman, but there aen't many quality replacements out there for around that money.


Yeah, I dont get that. Martin isn't that bad that the Pens need to give him 5 mil to go away then throw at minimum another 4 million to get a decent dman to take his place.


It isn't if Martin is bad or not at this point. Its a matter of finding a way to fill out a roster with $8 million when you only have 7 forwards and 5 defensemen signed. Our defense might look very young next year. We may have to ditch Orpik as well and go with 3 rookies to fill out a roster.
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Re: Lockout

Postby joopen on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:17 pm

Also remember that Letang needs a raise after 2013-2014. Then Penguins have some very interesting decisions to make. Like is Letang another Jordan Staal situation this summer.
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Re: Lockout

Postby columbia on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:19 pm

If the $60M cap holds, I would have to say that Martin is gone after this season.
The math just doesn't add up otherwise.

And then pray that Shero's draft strategy comes to fruition for 13-14.
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Re: Lockout

Postby joopen on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:37 pm

columbia wrote:If the $60M cap holds, I would have to say that Martin is gone after this season.
The math just doesn't add up otherwise.

And then pray that Shero's draft strategy comes to fruition for 13-14.


They have to force it to work. At $60M, they have to buy-out Martin and probably Kunitz to field a team that isn't full of AHLers. You also have to hope that Tangradi works out and so does Bennett. If you buy those 2 out, the team in 13-14 is:

MAF-Vokoun

Sid-Geno-Neal

Sutter-Vitale-Glass

Orpik-Letang

Niskanen-Engelland

If you add Bennett, Tangradi (at his current pay), Despres, and Dumoulin (chose just for fun) you end up with just over $13M to fill out a roster. If you keep Kunitz, you are down to around $9.5M and you still need at least 1 more D-man and 7 or so forwards with 1 of them being at least fringe top-6 calibur.
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Re: Lockout

Postby It'sagreatdayforhockey! on Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:59 pm

shmenguin wrote:
columbia wrote:
Another important issue is the second-year salary cap. The league wants a $60 million cap, and the players want a $65 million cap.

To appreciate how important that difference is, let's look at the Pittsburgh Penguins' payroll situation heading into the 2013-14 season. According to Capgeek.com, they have 15 players signed for a total of $56.3 million.

If the cap is $60 million, they would have $3.7 million remaining to sign more players. Even if they paid those eight players the league minimum, the Penguins couldn't get under the cap. And the unsigned players include Tyler Kennedy (restricted free agent), Pascal Dupuis (unrestricted) and Matt Cooke (unrestricted). Those are not players you pay the league minimum. A $60 million payroll would mean significant changes to the Penguins' team.

The Penguins would still have an issue at a $65 million salary, but the extra $5 million would make a significant difference.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nh ... y/1808927/

How exactly can the league function, if they have a $60M cap and do *not* have a salary rollback?
Or to put it another way, don't be so sure that the Penguins wouldn't be buying out two contracts under that scenario.


Martin (gasp!) and...? I've said it before...the lack of roll backs is bad for us. Moreso than most teams in the league. I haven't thought too much about it, but we might be the team that would get hurt the most from this with two guys who are gonna make about 17.4 mill. Especially with 2 buyouts being floated around.


Looks like we would be in about equally bad shape as teams like San Jose and Minnesota. We would certainly be near the bottom since most of the other teams that are at/near the cap over these next 2 years would be more able to afford the 2 player buyouts.

The team that would be hurt the worst appears to be Tampa Bay (http://www.capgeek.com/lightning/). They are sitting at $58mil with the same amount of guys signed next year and could they really afford to buy anyone out? Things don't get any better for them the following year with 9 guys signed for $48mil.
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Re: Lockout

Postby beLIEve on Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:07 pm

columbia wrote:
Another important issue is the second-year salary cap. The league wants a $60 million cap, and the players want a $65 million cap.

To appreciate how important that difference is, let's look at the Pittsburgh Penguins' payroll situation heading into the 2013-14 season. According to Capgeek.com, they have 15 players signed for a total of $56.3 million.

If the cap is $60 million, they would have $3.7 million remaining to sign more players. Even if they paid those eight players the league minimum, the Penguins couldn't get under the cap. And the unsigned players include Tyler Kennedy (restricted free agent), Pascal Dupuis (unrestricted) and Matt Cooke (unrestricted). Those are not players you pay the league minimum. A $60 million payroll would mean significant changes to the Penguins' team.

The Penguins would still have an issue at a $65 million salary, but the extra $5 million would make a significant difference.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nh ... y/1808927/

How exactly can the league function, if they have a $60M cap and do *not* have a salary rollback?
Or to put it another way, don't be so sure that the Penguins wouldn't be buying out two contracts under that scenario.


How can the league function? Exactly as it should function. The teams spending over the new cap would have to trade players to the teams not spending over the cap. In theory, talent would be more evenly distributed among teams, which is the healthiest possible scenario for the league as a whole.

Of course this 2 player buyout crap allows the overspenders a way out, which is ridiculous. But you have to have give and take in labor negotiations I suppose.
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Re: Lockout

Postby sil on Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:09 pm

Speculation is fun...

$60,000,000 cap for 2013-14

Kunitz ($3,725,000) | Malkin ($8,700,000) | Neal ($5,000,000)
Tangradi (resigned for $775,000) | Crosby ($8,700,000) | Dupuis (resigned for $1,750,000)
Cooke (resigned for $1,800,000..at his age I think he stays with same salary) | Sutter ($2,066,667) | Bennett ($900,000)
Glass ($1,100,000) | Vitale ($550,000) | Megna (just throwin' a long-shot name out there $925,000)
x Jeffrey (resigned for $600,000)

That's $36,591,667 for forwards.

Orpik ($3,750,000) | Letang ($3,500,000)
Martin ($5,000,000) | Niskanen ($2,300,000)
Despres ($840,000) | Strait (resigned for $625,000)
x Engellend ($566,667)

That's $16,581,667 for defensemen.

Fleury ($5,000,000)
Vokoun ($2,000,000)

That's (duh) $7,000,000 for goaltenders.

That comes to a grand total of $60,173,334, and $173,334 over the cap. About 6-700K over where we want to be. On the chopping block first may be Mr. Martin. May be necessary, but then we have Despres/Dumoulin/Strait, etc forced into top-4 duty alongside Niskanen (who may not even belong there?) ahead of schedule.

Make that a $65,000,000 cap, and suddenly we have some (but not ALL) room for the big re-signs the following year (Malkin, Letang, Orpik...and don't forget Sutter will be RFA).
Last edited by sil on Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Lockout

Postby columbia on Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:10 pm

beLIEve wrote:
Of course this 2 player buyout crap allows the overspenders a way out, which is ridiculous. But you have to have give and take in labor negotiations I suppose.


Under this scenario, the Penguins are over spenders.
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Re: Lockout

Postby tfrizz on Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:09 pm

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle
Apparently even the buyouts are likely subject to escrow. It's inescapable.
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Re: Lockout

Postby PhantomJB93 on Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:21 pm

This is what has pissed me off most about this process. It's one thing that they can't agree on things, but when they go into this childish, pissy teenage girl mode where neither side will meet or even talk with each other, it makes me just not want to be a fan of the sport at all.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:22 pm

Once the vote is complete, they'll be negotiating again.
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Re: Lockout

Postby bwink on Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:40 pm

It's amazing how this is all playing out. The players were against any sort of roll back and you can see from the above scenarios how this is going to effect many veteran players.

There is no way Dupuis or Cooke get anything near what they got before - They're simply not affordable anymore for what they bring and they will lose their jobs to younger and cheaper players if they don't take a substantial pay cut.

I think that The NHLPA is protecting the super stars at the expense of the rest of the players. What will teams do if the cap is 55 million in 2014-2015 because of the expected downturn on revenue caused by this lockout mess?
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Re: Lockout

Postby RPKJr429 on Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:31 pm

Idoit40fans wrote:Once the vote is complete, they'll be negotiating again.


Yep. The incentive to play fair was lost the moment the disclaimer expired. Even if it was just a threat, the thought of the damage it could do was very effective.
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Re: Lockout

Postby bhaw on Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:44 pm

MRandall25 wrote:I was Bettman's wording about GM's wanting to "dismantle" their teams to get rid of "regretful" contracts.

Yeah, it doesn't look as bad when you see the wording.

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/slapshot/ ... z2H1xrchSP


There's no wording here. Brooks just quoted the word "dismantle." The rest is Larry Brooks opinion and "flair." Hopefully that's not your source for making an opinion.
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Re: Lockout

Postby shmenguin on Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:48 pm

Why has the concept of big spenders developed this stigma? The amount of money being spent isn't on trial. Locking down players to long term deals and spending at the cap ceiling is Successful GM 101.

Buyouts would be necessary even if every contract ever handed out was a good one. You drop the cap, this is what happens. I don't see what the story is, here.
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Re: Lockout

Postby columbia on Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:58 pm

shmenguin wrote:Why has the concept of big spenders developed this stigma? The amount of money being spent isn't on trial. Locking down players to long term deals and spending at the cap ceiling is Successful GM 101.

Buyouts would be necessary even if every contract ever handed out was a good one. You drop the cap, this is what happens. I don't see what the story is, here.


yep.
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Re: Lockout

Postby ExPatriatePen on Fri Jan 04, 2013 8:15 pm

columbia wrote:
shmenguin wrote:Why has the concept of big spenders developed this stigma? The amount of money being spent isn't on trial. Locking down players to long term deals and spending at the cap ceiling is Successful GM 101.

Buyouts would be necessary even if every contract ever handed out was a good one. You drop the cap, this is what happens. I don't see what the story is, here.


yep.


So organizations like the Islanders who repeatedly pull bonehead moves and sign stupid contracts with such surefire HoF'ers as Yashin and Ricky DiP are on the same level as the Pens front office now?
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Re: Lockout

Postby columbia on Fri Jan 04, 2013 8:19 pm

They are in relation to a $60M cap.

If that's what the NHL wants, then there are going to have to be buyouts for many organizations, including the responsible ones.
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