Magic Number Thread!

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:28 pm

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:52 pm

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby It'sagreatdayforhockey! on Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:54 pm

relantel wrote:MN down to 6 (NYI max 61); Division at 8 (NJ & NYR max 63)

Effective division lead now 17 points with the Devils losing their game in hand. As noted above, Islanders can only tie the Pens current ROW total, and Pens hold the head to head on them, so it could be argued that the MN for a playoff spot may actually be 5. Winnipeg fell to max 60 points, tied with Washington in that regard.


So current magic numbers would be:
Playoffs - 5 (NYI) [w/ tiebreaker]
Division - 8 (NYR/NJ) [7 to lock up a top 2 spot (CAR)]
Conference - 22 (MTL)
League - 28 (CHI) [not obtainable]

We have the tiebreaker over NJ and NYI plus have clinched over FLA and BUF.


Tonight we can drop 2 to each MN with a win (obviously) plus can claim the tiebreaker over NYR with a ROW which would drop our Division MN another point to 5. With NYI playing WIN, no real advance can be made to the playoffs MN except for ROW tiebreaker benefits that could actually push the MN to 2 (WIN/WAS/NYI).

Either way, the playoffs can't be clinched tonight. Tomorrow on the other hand ... Pens need 2 ROW wins or 2 wins (1 ROW) + WIN over NYI tonight by SO = playoffs
since both cases would give us the necessary tiebreakers over WIN/WAS/NYI.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:18 pm

Debbies loss means 4 to clinch over Philly, 4 to clinch over Isles, 5 to clinch over Debbies, and 8 over Rags.

4 points to eliminate the possibility of being the 3 seed (WAS max 60; their SO win over NYI clinched at least 2nd tiebreak for Pens as their max ROW total fell to 26, the Pens current total).

Pens clinched outright over Winnipeg tonight. Their max 56 (Pens total), max ROW 26 (Pens total), Pens own head to head, as the first game in the extra city is tossed and the Pens won the other two.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:23 pm

On the other hand, that Isles shootout loss looks like it reduces the magic number to 4, as they are now 9th most max points at 60. PHI is 10th at 59, TBL/CAR at 58.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby DelPen on Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:04 am

with the ROW and head-to-head, the magic number should be:

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Kovy27 on Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:06 am

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:20 am

About the only image of McSorley wearing #4 I could find:
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:37 am

Hmmm. SportsClubStats has Pens as "In" this morning and Playoff Status gives clinching scenarios today for 8th & 7th slots:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/penguinsclinch.html
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby cma3585 on Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:56 am

relantel wrote:Hmmm. SportsClubStats has Pens as "In" this morning and Playoff Status gives clinching scenarios today for 8th & 7th slots:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/penguinsclinch.html


I read a tweet from someone respectable from TSN that said with Winnipeg's loss last night, Pens just need a point and they're in.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Fri Apr 05, 2013 12:37 pm

cma3585 wrote:
relantel wrote:Hmmm. SportsClubStats has Pens as "In" this morning and Playoff Status gives clinching scenarios today for 8th & 7th slots:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/penguinsclinch.html


I read a tweet from someone respectable from TSN that said with Winnipeg's loss last night, Pens just need a point and they're in.

I know one more Pens ROW will tie the max ROWs for a bunch of teams - PHI, TBL, NYR*, OTT. Already clinched ROW tiebreaker on NJ, BUF, NYI, FLA. ROW tied with WAS & WPG but Pens control head to head.

*NYR would see tiebreak clinched over if said ROW is tonight. If that is the case, NYR max falls to NJ's 61, NYI 60 and Philly 59. Would make Division MN fall to 3. Only other game in the east tonight is OTT @ BUF, so I don't see a scenario on pure max points where Pens clinch tonight. I do see where NYI play PHI twice more, and NYR play NJD twice more.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:39 pm

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby It'sagreatdayforhockey! on Fri Apr 05, 2013 4:10 pm

cma3585 wrote:
relantel wrote:Hmmm. SportsClubStats has Pens as "In" this morning and Playoff Status gives clinching scenarios today for 8th & 7th slots:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/penguinsclinch.html


I read a tweet from someone respectable from TSN that said with Winnipeg's loss last night, Pens just need a point and they're in.


He may be a respected hockey journalist, but his math isn't the best.

MN:
Playoffs - 4
Div - 8
Top 2 seed - 4
Conference - 21
League - 27

A ROW win drops the playoff and top two seed (for an Atlantic team) MN to 2 and the division to 3 (since we would tie for ROW and win H2H over NYR).
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:57 pm

Playoffs 2
Division 5 (ROW tiebreak on Rags not clinched yet - need 1 more Pens ROW or Rags fail to get ROW)
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby DrBoni on Sat Apr 06, 2013 12:47 am

relantel wrote:Playoffs 2
Division 5 (ROW tiebreak on Rags not clinched yet - need 1 more Pens ROW or Rags fail to get ROW)


With 11 games left, the best the Rangers can do is tie the Pens at 26 ROW. Pens would then take head-to-head (7-3).
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby pressure=9Pa on Sat Apr 06, 2013 8:21 am

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Pensfan4life27 on Sat Apr 06, 2013 8:23 am

I feel we should make a sub thread of this one and do a magic # that the Flyers won't make the playoffs :)
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby pressure=9Pa on Sat Apr 06, 2013 8:27 am

Pensfan4life27 wrote:I feel we should make a sub thread of this one and do a magic # that the Flyers won't make the playoffs :)


This is their number, regardless of the standings:

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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Pensfan4life27 on Sat Apr 06, 2013 8:32 am

I completely agree, they are just the only team I don't want to see us play. We invest to much emotion for a first round series to play them. I'd like to see us play the Islanders really.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:54 am

DrBoni wrote:
relantel wrote:Playoffs 2
Division 5 (ROW tiebreak on Rags not clinched yet - need 1 more Pens ROW or Rags fail to get ROW)


With 11 games left, the best the Rangers can do is tie the Pens at 26 ROW. Pens would then take head-to-head (7-3).


I had the Rags with one too many ROWs. So you are correct. This should make the Division number as 4. 2 for Flyers, 2 for Islanders, 3 for Devils.

All things being equal, chances are Pens will win a tiebreak with Montreal or Boston on the ROW total, being up 5 and 6 ROWs respectively, and is higher than anyone in the West, where CHI has 22 and ANA 20. The Hawks still have 3 games in hand, so seems barring a collapse the Hawks will win the President's trophy. Which I think is just fine by most of us.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby beLIEve on Sat Apr 06, 2013 11:23 am

They can clinch a playoff birth today with Islanders and Capitals regulation losses plus any type of Flyers loss.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Mr. Colby on Sat Apr 06, 2013 1:51 pm

Clinched Over: Florida, Buffalo, Winnipeg (12th)

1 Point to Clinch Over: Tampa Bay, Carolina (10th)
2 Points to Clinch Over: Philadelphia, Washington, NY Islanders (8th)
3 Points to Clinch Over: New Jersey (7th)
4 Points to Clinch Over: New York Rangers (6th)

2 Points to Clinch the Playoffs
4 Points to Clinch the Division
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby Mr. Colby on Sat Apr 06, 2013 1:57 pm

Pens can clinch the Atlantic Division prior to their next game.

Philly: Sat. @ Winnipeg (OT loss)
NY Islanders: Sat. vs. Tampa (Regulation loss)
New Jersey: Sat. vs. Toronto, Sun. @ Buffalo (Regulation loss AND OT loss)
NY Rangers: Sat @ Carolina, Monday @ Toronto (2 Regulation losses)
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby beLIEve on Sat Apr 06, 2013 5:51 pm

Flyers lost. Pens have clinched over them. Clinching a playoff birth today is still possible today if there are Islanders and Capitals regulation losses.
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Re: Magic Number Thread!

Postby relantel on Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:35 pm

By my count, the Tampa, Carolina, and Philly losses means Pens have clinched 9th or better.

New Jersey's loss means the 9th most max is now 59 points. Pens owning the ROW tiebreak on New Jersey means magic number for playoff spot is 1. If Buffalo beats the Devils tomorrow in any form, this would clinch a playoff spot.

2 to clinch over the Islanders, and 4 to clinch over the Rangers for the division.

Boston's loss to the Habs reduces the conference magic number to 18.
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