Sit everyone against Ottawa?

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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby pens_srq on Sun Apr 21, 2013 9:18 pm

NYR has Lundqvist who can steal a series. And a grueling defensive style with good shot-blocking that can be difficult to score on at times. I would much rather have a first round series against Ottawa.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby CERV96 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:42 am

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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby ScottishPenguin on Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:49 pm

Pulling players from the line-up sends a terrible message; it's an invitation to goon it up against us. Far more is achieved by meeting the threat head on and demonstrating that this isn't a team to take liberties with.

I very much doubt this is going to turn into a furball in any case. Melnyk might be one of those people you see on traffic islands screaming about how the reptiloids are stealing our biscuits, but Paul MacLean isn't going to waste a crucial game on schoolyard nonsense. Two of their three remaining games after us are on the road against Boston and Washington. 7th spot is worth so much more than 8th this year and the Rangers last three games are pretty soft.


TheHammer24 wrote:The chance of winning the Stanley Cup, then, can be found by multiplying the chance you have of beating each team. Even the best 1-8 game is something like 90% vs 10%. Imagine we have a 90% chance of beating Ottawa and an 80% chance of beating NYR. In both situations we are "heavy favorites." Assume further we have a 70% chance of beating the second round team, 60% of beating the third round, and a 50% chance of winning the cup matchup.

Playing Ottawa under this scenario gives us a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Playing NYR gives us a 17% chance. Although we're still a favorite if we play our game against both, playing the poorer team creates a measurable difference.


If anyone is interested in the objective pseudomathematical opinion of someone with a reasonably sound prediction model and a gambling problem, then as it stands today the Penguins will beat the Senators in a 7 game series around 78% of the time, and beat the Rangers around 72% of the time. The overall chances of the Penguins winning the cup is pretty close to 20%, but it's not a nice straightforward 80%/70%/60%/50%. There is as big a gap in playing strength between the Penguins and the second best team as there is between that team and the 9th best team, this creates a much flatter landscape than Hammer describes.

But's that's today and things will invariably look very different in a few weeks time. The gulf between the Penguins and everyone else is as much a feature of Montreal and Boston slumping as it is us being awesome. The distribution was much more even a couple of weeks ago.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby malksby8771 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:49 pm

pens_srq wrote:NYR has Lundqvist who can steal a series. And a grueling defensive style with good shot-blocking that can be difficult to score on at times. I would much rather have a first round series against Ottawa.


Exactly. Ottawa has no one who can steal a series. Lundqvist is an elite goaltender and avoiding elite goaltenders each round is a good recipee to make the finals.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby GenoMachino71 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:51 pm

pens_CT wrote:
GenoMachino71 wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
malksby8771 wrote:Tomorrow is sort of an important game for us imho. If we beat Ottawa and NYR hangs on today against NJD, then Ottawa falls to 8th. The Rangers also have a much easier schedule than the Sens from here on out (NYR plays Car, Buff, NJD while Ott plays Wash, Philly, Boston). I would much rather play Ottawa than NYR in round 1, so I certainly want a win tomorrow.

In my opinion it doesn't matter who we play in the 1st round. If we play to our capabilities then we can beat anybody in the east. If we fall into the mindset of last years playoffs then we can lose to anyone. If you want to win the cup, its better to be challenged along the way, then hoping for the easiest path.


ehhhhh.... but can say all that....

but the bottom line is, I'd rather play Ottawa than NY in the 1st round

I'd worry more about MAF's playoff performance rather than who we are playing.


bully for you
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Rylan on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:21 pm

malksby8771 wrote:
pens_srq wrote:NYR has Lundqvist who can steal a series. And a grueling defensive style with good shot-blocking that can be difficult to score on at times. I would much rather have a first round series against Ottawa.


Exactly. Ottawa has no one who can steal a series. Lundqvist is an elite goaltender and avoiding elite goaltenders each round is a good recipee to make the finals.


Mr. Anderson would like to have a word with you.

But seriously, Ottawa's defense makes them capable of squeaking out series or 2. But their utter lack of offense would be their downfall as I don't see EK being that good after recovering from his injury.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Shakes on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:40 pm

Who knew Halak could steal a series until he did? You never know.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Rylan on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:43 pm

Halak stole 2 series
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Godric on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:51 pm

Rylan wrote:Halak stole 2 series


This. Halak was such a monster.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby scals37 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:53 pm

Godric wrote:
Rylan wrote:Halak stole 2 series


This. Halak was such a monster.

Halak caused a hole to mysteriously appear in my wall that year...
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Rylan on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:56 pm

scals37 wrote:
Godric wrote:
Rylan wrote:Halak stole 2 series


This. Halak was such a monster.

Halak caused a hole to mysteriously appear in my wall that year...


Well he is a genie...
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Godric on Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:56 pm

scals37 wrote:
Godric wrote:
Rylan wrote:Halak stole 2 series


This. Halak was such a monster.

Halak caused a hole to mysteriously appear in my wall that year...


Halak ruined the day my eldest Niece was born. That was the day of game 7. I was in McGee hospital which has to be one of the happiest places on the planet and I remember storming out of the lobby were a TV with the game on was.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby TheHammer24 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:05 pm

TheHammer24 wrote:The chance of winning the Stanley Cup, then, can be found by multiplying the chance you have of beating each team. Even the best 1-8 game is something like 90% vs 10%. Imagine we have a 90% chance of beating Ottawa and an 80% chance of beating NYR. In both situations we are "heavy favorites." Assume further we have a 70% chance of beating the second round team, 60% of beating the third round, and a 50% chance of winning the cup matchup.

Playing Ottawa under this scenario gives us a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Playing NYR gives us a 17% chance. Although we're still a favorite if we play our game against both, playing the poorer team creates a measurable difference.


If anyone is interested in the objective pseudomathematical opinion of someone with a reasonably sound prediction model and a gambling problem, then as it stands today the Penguins will beat the Senators in a 7 game series around 78% of the time, and beat the Rangers around 72% of the time. The overall chances of the Penguins winning the cup is pretty close to 20%, but it's not a nice straightforward 80%/70%/60%/50%. There is as big a gap in playing strength between the Penguins and the second best team as there is between that team and the 9th best team, this creates a much flatter landscape than Hammer describes.

But's that's today and things will invariably look very different in a few weeks time. The gulf between the Penguins and everyone else is as much a feature of Montreal and Boston slumping as it is us being awesome. The distribution was much more even a couple of weeks ago.[/quote]
Thanks! I was just throwing out percentages to make my point that even if you're favored over two different teams it still matter which of the two you play. In any event, where did you get your numbers?
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby shmenguin on Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:15 pm

scals37 wrote:
Godric wrote:
Rylan wrote:Halak stole 2 series


This. Halak was such a monster.

Halak caused a hole to mysteriously appear in my wall that year...


I read this in a different and much more vivid way than intended.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby ScottishPenguin on Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:59 pm

TheHammer24 wrote:Thanks! I was just throwing out percentages to make my point that even if you're favored over two different teams it still matter which of the two you play.


Absolutely. Although you can go a bit deeper if you want. The other match-ups matter too; we'd quite like to get rid of Boston for instance, and maybe one of the teams fighting for 6/7/8th spot would match up better against than the others would. It might be better for us to take the harder opponent in the first round for the increased chance of getting rid of a dangerous conference finals opponent. As it happens, I don't think there is anything fruity like that going on this year, but I like to complicate things.

In any event, where did you get your numbers?


Are you at all familiar with the elo ratings system? I started working on something similar for hockey during the lockout. Far from finished, but so long as there's a human being on the other end of it exercising a smattering of reasonably well-informed judgement, it's proving itself pretty accurate so far this year. It wobbled a bit around the trade deadline but has recovered since. I'm interested to see how badly it breaks during the playoffs.
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby nocera on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:05 pm

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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby BCG51585 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:06 pm

No Bennett either. Maybe rest Adams and Orpik too and go with something like this...

Kunitz Jokinen Dupuis
Morrow Sutter Iginla
Cooke Jeffrey Kennedy
Glass Vitale MacIntyre

Eaton Bortuzzo
Murray Niskanen
Despres Engelland

Vokoun
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby Grunthy on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:17 pm

Man Bylsma really doesn't like bennett. He gave him an upper body injury so he couldn't play... :pop:
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Re: Sit everyone against Ottawa?

Postby itissteeltime on Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:24 pm

BCG51585 wrote:No Bennett either. Maybe rest Adams and Orpik too and go with something like this...

Kunitz Jokinen Dupuis
Morrow Sutter Iginla
Cooke Jeffrey Kennedy
Glass Vitale MacIntyre

Eaton Bortuzzo
Murray Niskanen
Despres Engelland

Vokoun

Kunitz - Vitale - Dupuis
Glass - Sutter - Iginla
Cooke - Jeffrey - MacInture
Morrow - Jokinen - Kennedy
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