Vokoun will be the game changer.

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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 2:59 pm

5mm for the next two years of Fleury isn't Luongo into the 2020's obviously, but it doesn't make me feel good.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Malkamaniac on Wed May 08, 2013 3:00 pm

slappybrown wrote:5mm for the next two years of Fleury isn't Luongo into the 2020's obviously, but it doesn't make me feel good.


If you're looking for someone to buy-out. Well there's an option. Especially if the NHL holds true to the elite goalies are necessary in the playoffs. Like Chicago with Corey Crawford.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 3:05 pm

I admit it. I looked at the Capgeek UFA Goalies last night. Slim pickings. We could use the savings big time though. Give us an extra 3-4 mm to play with if you are ok with TV next year and re-evaluating the year after.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby tfrizz on Wed May 08, 2013 3:09 pm

slappybrown wrote:I admit it. I looked at the Capgeek UFA Goalies last night. Slim pickings. We could use the savings big time though. Give us an extra 3-4 mm to play with if you are ok with TV next year and re-evaluating the year after.


The pickings are very slim, and the few that might be worth a look (Smith, Emery, etc) are reportedly looking to cash in big on the weak market.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 3:10 pm

Right; you have to determine that TV is your #1 and that you are ok with that. Otherwise, there's no help coming UFA in terms of a #1.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Staggy on Wed May 08, 2013 3:13 pm

This may not be the time for discussions like this but if we were to go the route of looking for a new goalie, who is attractive and available? The only one that comes to my mind is Bernier.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby AlexPKeaton on Wed May 08, 2013 3:16 pm

tfrizz wrote:
slappybrown wrote:I admit it. I looked at the Capgeek UFA Goalies last night. Slim pickings. We could use the savings big time though. Give us an extra 3-4 mm to play with if you are ok with TV next year and re-evaluating the year after.


The pickings are very slim, and the few that might be worth a look (Smith, Emery, etc) are reportedly looking to cash in big on the weak market.


Mike Smith, Jonathan Bernier, and Ryan Miller should all be available this summer. Also Luu but mehhhhhhhhh.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby thepittman on Wed May 08, 2013 3:19 pm

SolidSnake wrote:Yea I mean, this is the time you use Vokoun. He is one of the highest paid backups in the league, if not used then you might as well used Thiessen in this shortened season or got another backup cheaper then TV then used some of the cap left that could of brought in another D-man besides Murray

Thiessen

NO THANKS

There is a reason we grabbed up Hartzell
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby tfrizz on Wed May 08, 2013 3:21 pm

AlexPKeaton wrote:
tfrizz wrote:
slappybrown wrote:I admit it. I looked at the Capgeek UFA Goalies last night. Slim pickings. We could use the savings big time though. Give us an extra 3-4 mm to play with if you are ok with TV next year and re-evaluating the year after.


The pickings are very slim, and the few that might be worth a look (Smith, Emery, etc) are reportedly looking to cash in big on the weak market.


Mike Smith, Jonathan Bernier, and Ryan Miller should all be available this summer. Also Luu but mehhhhhhhhh.


Phoenix is gladly letting Smith hit the free agent market because of his demands. It's rumoured that he may be seeking something in the $6- to $7-million per year range.

Miller's signed for one more season, so unless they can get him in a trade he's not really "available".

Bernier will be a RFA this summer and is going to be highly sought after if the Kings don't extend him. I can't see Shero being willing to give up the compensation picks to throw a competitive offer sheet his way.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Henry Hank on Wed May 08, 2013 3:21 pm

I'd just go with Vokoun and Hartzell. Go cheap on goaltending and use the cap space to keep guys like Iginla and Dupuis around. Fleury isn't worth the cap hit. Isn't the fact that they had to spend $2 million on a back-up already an indication that Fleury is a problem? $7 million is a lot to spend on goaltending yet still having issues between the pipes.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Kraftster on Wed May 08, 2013 3:22 pm

slappybrown wrote:
nocera wrote:
slappybrown wrote:
DesertPenguin wrote:
nocera wrote:Pens Cup hopes begin and end with Fleury. Vokoun might get you a game, but definitely not to the championship.



This. Vokoun needs to get us this series. MAF starts game 1 of round 2. No sooner.

Why? Vokoun slightly outperformed MAF in the regular season. If there were no names on the backs of the jersey, and you looked at their performance, Vokoun's was slightly better this season.


Fleury is a better goaltender than Vokoun at this stage of his career. Difference is Fleury can struggle if he gets in his own head. I can't remember specifics but didn't TV have a horrible run of games at some point during the season?

Vokoun has played slightly better than him this season, .919 v. .916. Vokoun also faced over 4 shots more per 60 minutes compared to Fleury. The sample size isn't ideal -- 31 GP for MAF and 17 for TV -- but I'm finding difficult to automatically assume MAF is the better goalie right now.


Do you really believe that because of a .03 difference in save percentage? Vokoun looked old and slow in a number of starts from an eye test standpoint. Beyond that, MAF got the nod in most of the "big" games where both goaltenders were healthy, meaning he faced the stiffer competition.

With goaltending being somewhat marginalized/talent being diluted/more parity in net, which I think is the case at this point, the wins category is really the most important one at the end of the day. Playoff wins clearly have not been there for MAF, but the teams in front of him have been quite poor. You could reasonably argue that he's paid at a level where he needs to bring more than crappy peripherals and wins, and you'd probably be correct. Still, I do not know that there are many better options, and I am not comfortable handing the team to Vokoun for the remainder of the playoffs, let alone beyond.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby pcm on Wed May 08, 2013 3:24 pm

Fleury will redeem himself this postseason.

Spoiler:
I pray.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby thepittman on Wed May 08, 2013 3:24 pm

I just hope TV doesn't grip the stick too tight with all the pressure he is about to jump into
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby AlexPKeaton on Wed May 08, 2013 3:27 pm

tfrizz wrote:
AlexPKeaton wrote:
tfrizz wrote:
slappybrown wrote:I admit it. I looked at the Capgeek UFA Goalies last night. Slim pickings. We could use the savings big time though. Give us an extra 3-4 mm to play with if you are ok with TV next year and re-evaluating the year after.


The pickings are very slim, and the few that might be worth a look (Smith, Emery, etc) are reportedly looking to cash in big on the weak market.


Mike Smith, Jonathan Bernier, and Ryan Miller should all be available this summer. Also Luu but mehhhhhhhhh.


Phoenix is gladly letting Smith hit the free agent market because of his demands. It's rumoured that he may be seeking something in the $6- to $7-million per year range.

Miller's signed for one more season, so unless they can get him in a trade he's not really "available".

Bernier will be a RFA this summer and is going to be highly sought after if the Kings don't extend him. I can't see Shero being willing to give up the compensation picks to throw a competitive offer sheet his way.


I think Miller's time in buffalo is done. And his high salary for 1 more season might make the offers lower than they would be. And his contract only has 1 year left which is perfect, since Letang and Malkin's raises won't have kicked in yet.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 3:30 pm

Kraftster wrote:
Do you really believe that because of a .03 difference in save percentage? Vokoun looked old and slow in a number of starts from an eye test standpoint. Beyond that, MAF got the nod in most of the "big" games where both goaltenders were healthy, meaning he faced the stiffer competition.

With goaltending being somewhat marginalized/talent being diluted/more parity in net, which I think is the case at this point, the wins category is really the most important one at the end of the day. Playoff wins clearly have not been there for MAF, but the teams in front of him have been quite poor. You could reasonably argue that he's paid at a level where he needs to bring more than crappy peripherals and wins, and you'd probably be correct. Still, I do not know that there are many better options, and I am not comfortable handing the team to Vokoun for the remainder of the playoffs, let alone beyond.


Obviously, its not an enormous difference. But given that he's outperformed him while facing more shots plus Fleury's breakdowns in recent playoffs, and I'm hard pressed to see why MAF is really a better choice. Their historic numbers prior to this season also reflect TV outperforming him.

Wins are without a doubt the worst stat to measure a goalie's performance. Save% is really the one stat that the goalie has the most control over. GAA is next, with wins far removed from a measure of a goalie's performance.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Rocco on Wed May 08, 2013 3:39 pm

slappybrown wrote:
Kraftster wrote:
Do you really believe that because of a .03 difference in save percentage? Vokoun looked old and slow in a number of starts from an eye test standpoint. Beyond that, MAF got the nod in most of the "big" games where both goaltenders were healthy, meaning he faced the stiffer competition.

With goaltending being somewhat marginalized/talent being diluted/more parity in net, which I think is the case at this point, the wins category is really the most important one at the end of the day. Playoff wins clearly have not been there for MAF, but the teams in front of him have been quite poor. You could reasonably argue that he's paid at a level where he needs to bring more than crappy peripherals and wins, and you'd probably be correct. Still, I do not know that there are many better options, and I am not comfortable handing the team to Vokoun for the remainder of the playoffs, let alone beyond.


Obviously, its not an enormous difference. But given that he's outperformed him while facing more shots plus Fleury's breakdowns in recent playoffs, and I'm hard pressed to see why MAF is really a better choice. Their historic numbers prior to this season also reflect TV outperforming him.

Wins are without a doubt the worst stat to measure a goalie's performance. Save% is really the one stat that the goalie has the most control over. GAA is next, with wins far removed from a measure of a goalie's performance.


I'd want to look at the quality of opponents before saying Vokoun outplayed MAF. Still though he played well outside of some early season turds and was brought in precisely in case MAF went to hell so Bylsma couldn't hide behind the excuse of the backup being clinically dead.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Kraftster on Wed May 08, 2013 3:40 pm

slappybrown wrote:
Kraftster wrote:
Do you really believe that because of a .03 difference in save percentage? Vokoun looked old and slow in a number of starts from an eye test standpoint. Beyond that, MAF got the nod in most of the "big" games where both goaltenders were healthy, meaning he faced the stiffer competition.

With goaltending being somewhat marginalized/talent being diluted/more parity in net, which I think is the case at this point, the wins category is really the most important one at the end of the day. Playoff wins clearly have not been there for MAF, but the teams in front of him have been quite poor. You could reasonably argue that he's paid at a level where he needs to bring more than crappy peripherals and wins, and you'd probably be correct. Still, I do not know that there are many better options, and I am not comfortable handing the team to Vokoun for the remainder of the playoffs, let alone beyond.


Obviously, its not an enormous difference. But given that he's outperformed him while facing more shots plus Fleury's breakdowns in recent playoffs, and I'm hard pressed to see why MAF is really a better choice. Their historic numbers prior to this season also reflect TV outperforming him.

Wins are without a doubt the worst stat to measure a goalie's performance. Save% is really the one stat that the goalie has the most control over. GAA is next, with wins far removed from a measure of a goalie's performance.


Even Save % and GAA are heavily reflective of the style that a team plays. 2010 Montreal postseason Halak was stopping 40+ shots per game because Montreal invited low-risk shots from the perimeter but nothing in close. Ottawa is playing a similar style this year, which is why Craig Anderson, Ben Bishop, and Robin Lehner were all in the top 8 (or whatever it was) in save pct. for goaltenders with more than X starts. Are Anderson, Bishop, and Lehner three of the top 8 goalies in the league? Of course not.

Wins are not reflective of a goalie's individual performance, but they are what matters. I'm not suggesting you can analyze the individual skill of a goaltender by counting wins, but you can judge whether the production from the position is adequate, which is what the majority of the league is arguably looking for at this point.

From a personnel standpoint and a system standpoint, the Penguins are not built to require or produce a .945 goaltender over the course of a season/playoffs. You can argue that Fleury should steal a game now and then at $5M/, and he should at that cap hit. That's why he's rightfully on the bench tomorrow night. Still, at the end of the day, I think the Pens need a righted MAF in goal if they want to win the cup this year (and a whole lot of other things that they don't currently have) and something more than Vokoun in goal if they want to be a legitimate contender next year (with that same whole lot of other things fixed as well).
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Great58 on Wed May 08, 2013 3:48 pm

slappybrown wrote:Right; you have to determine that TV is your #1 and that you are ok with that. Otherwise, there's no help coming UFA in terms of a #1.

I'm not ok with TV as next year's #1. He had a couple of games where he just couldn't seem to get up off his belly once he went down. The game at home against Philly stands out. Another year older and slower? No thanks.
I think him playing game 5 is the absolute right idea, but more due to the signal it is sending to the team.
Is it just my impression, or do the Pens tend to play a more disciplined game in front of their backups?
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 3:51 pm

Wins are a measure of team performance. Of all the goalie stats, save% is the one least affected by team performance. Team effects are what make evaluating goalies so difficult, but save% isolates this the best -- and in particular, even strength save%.

Hey, what a surprise:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm? ... lTeamSaves

.940 to .927 in favor of Vokoun.



The most effective way to define an "elite goaltender" is to look at save percentage - after adjusting it for situation (5-on-5, 5-on-4, etc - some just look at even-strength save percentage only). Gather it over an extended period of time, because one season is often too small a sample size. Then based on those two factors (sample size and save percentage) you can establish the goalie's true skill level with a confidence interval.


An elite goalie would be any goalie who doesn't overlap significantly with at least half the other goalies. As such, there are those that believe that Hasek was the last elite goalie; the last goalie that was consistently, provably and appreciably better than the average. That wouldn't be an unreasonable position to take.

I didn't talk about shot quality, but as soon as the NHL has improved the consistency of where shots are taken from we can use that to further adjust the situation-adjusted save percentage.


-Rob Vollman, Hockey Prospectus
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby thepittman on Wed May 08, 2013 3:52 pm

Great58 wrote:
slappybrown wrote:Right; you have to determine that TV is your #1 and that you are ok with that. Otherwise, there's no help coming UFA in terms of a #1.

I'm not ok with TV as next year's #1. He had a couple of games where he just couldn't seem to get up off his belly once he went down. The game at home against Philly stands out. Another year older and slower? No thanks.
I think him playing game 5 is the absolute right idea, but more due to the signal it is sending to the team.
Is it just my impression, or do the Pens tend to play a more disciplined game in front of their backups?

Sometimes, they left BJ out to dry a few times in spectacular fashion
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby IanMoran on Wed May 08, 2013 3:55 pm

slappybrown wrote:Wins are a measure of team performance. Of all the goalie stats, save% is the one least affected by team performance. Team effects are what make evaluating goalies so difficult, but save% isolates this the best -- and in particular, even strength save%.

Hey, what a surprise:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm? ... lTeamSaves

.940 to .927 in favor of Vokoun.



The most effective way to define an "elite goaltender" is to look at save percentage - after adjusting it for situation (5-on-5, 5-on-4, etc - some just look at even-strength save percentage only). Gather it over an extended period of time, because one season is often too small a sample size. Then based on those two factors (sample size and save percentage) you can establish the goalie's true skill level with a confidence interval.


An elite goalie would be any goalie who doesn't overlap significantly with at least half the other goalies. As such, there are those that believe that Hasek was the last elite goalie; the last goalie that was consistently, provably and appreciably better than the average. That wouldn't be an unreasonable position to take.

I didn't talk about shot quality, but as soon as the NHL has improved the consistency of where shots are taken from we can use that to further adjust the situation-adjusted save percentage.


-Rob Vollman, Hockey Prospectus

OF the goalie stats I'd say its the most telling, but definitely a lot of error... A team that allows a lot of odd-man breaks and such make it tough on a goalie's save %
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 3:56 pm

And Kraftster, I agree with you, this team doesn't need an elite goalie. We don't need even a .930 goalie; .920 is enough for us to win a Cup.

I saw a tweet from Derek Zona last night:

Fleury's ranking in save% by year in the playoffs: 18-2-11-15-14-16-14. There are 16 teams in the playoffs. This is not some out of nowhere trend. We lost to DET in the finals when he was 2, and won the Cup when he was 11. He is not very good in the playoffs. Which makes sense, because during the regular season he's usually in the high teens in save%. He's an average goalie who has had one exceptional run of play (the year we lost to DET), one pretty good year (the year we won the Cup), and has otherwise been poor in the playoffs. It's just reality.

In light of all that; yes, I think it's silly to assume he's better than Vokoun, particularly given Vokoun's slightly better performance this season. No more excuses.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 3:59 pm

IanMoran wrote:
slappybrown wrote:Wins are a measure of team performance. Of all the goalie stats, save% is the one least affected by team performance. Team effects are what make evaluating goalies so difficult, but save% isolates this the best -- and in particular, even strength save%.

Hey, what a surprise:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm? ... lTeamSaves

.940 to .927 in favor of Vokoun.



The most effective way to define an "elite goaltender" is to look at save percentage - after adjusting it for situation (5-on-5, 5-on-4, etc - some just look at even-strength save percentage only). Gather it over an extended period of time, because one season is often too small a sample size. Then based on those two factors (sample size and save percentage) you can establish the goalie's true skill level with a confidence interval.


An elite goalie would be any goalie who doesn't overlap significantly with at least half the other goalies. As such, there are those that believe that Hasek was the last elite goalie; the last goalie that was consistently, provably and appreciably better than the average. That wouldn't be an unreasonable position to take.

I didn't talk about shot quality, but as soon as the NHL has improved the consistency of where shots are taken from we can use that to further adjust the situation-adjusted save percentage.


-Rob Vollman, Hockey Prospectus

OF the goalie stats I'd say its the most telling, but definitely a lot of error... A team that allows a lot of odd-man breaks and such make it tough on a goalie's save %


So the odd-man breaks occurred only when MAF played, but not TV? TV faced 4 plus more shots per 60min than Fleury did, but had a better save % and a much better EV save %. The super shot theory doesn't fly, particularly when you consider:

Pens Ranking in S/A per game since Bylsma's first full year:

16th (this year)
3
2
7

We are an elite team when it comes to preventing SOG in the Bylsma era (though middle of the road this season).
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby slappybrown on Wed May 08, 2013 4:36 pm

Here, I'll pile on some more. Goalies that have played 10 games or more in the playoffs since we won the Cup (click on save% tab):

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-in ... r_by=goals

Dead last. Luongo lost his starting job for being "a bad playoff goalie" and he lets in nearly three fewer goals per 100 shots compared to Fleury in the playoffs. Its embarrassing at this point. But somehow, we only can win the Cup with Fleury? It may be too late because TV has no margin for error now, but MAF has been even worse than I thought.
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Re: Vokoun will be the game changer.

Postby Lt. Dish on Wed May 08, 2013 4:41 pm

Bathgate wrote:
AlexPKeaton wrote:Fleury is done in Pittsburgh. 3 playoff failures in a row, each consequently worse. He is toast, I can't even see anyone willing to give up much for him in a trade. It is a shame, because he is a great guy. But, results...


It's gonna have to be a buyout. Fleury can then sign with the Flyers and Bryzgalov can sign with the Pens.


Bathgate, you wash your hands after typing such filth. :wink:
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