Will the Pens win this series?
I base this on the fact that throughout the Penguins career of HCDB, there has been little reason to convince me that he is capable of countering tactics in the playoffs. This 1-3-1 crap we are seeing from the Islanders resembles the same styles we have seen from past playoff years, where the Pens also had no answers. It is highly likely that Capuano, a middling coach who coached his team to a middling regular season record, simply broke out the tapes of past Penguins playoff beatings and simply copied some of the tactics.
Whether it is that HCDB is incapable of coaching around tactics meant to thwart his "system", or that he is unwilling to... does not matter. Either way, his short tenure history here has shown that he has not done so.
As I noted towards the end of season, HCDB will be tested in the playoffs. The regular season, though the Pens had seemed to right the ship, is not indicative of what happens come playoff time. Mostly because teams during the regular season are not going to change their tactics/style JUST to beat the Pens' system. But come playoff time, that is the ONLY thing teams do (via coaching). The proof is in the pudding right now. I have no reason to expect the Pens to change.
The only way I see the Pens pulling this one out is if Malkin or Crosby go on a rampage and simply outskill the Islanders off the ice. That doesn't happen as much in the playoffs of today's era, thanks to the overload of coaching/tactics/systems. Today's game is more like a chess match, where even though the Queen is the most powerful piece on the board individually, she is still only one cog in the entire scheme and can be defeated by even the lowliest pawn on the board if the gameplan fails.