Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:21 am

To answer the cap questions, the rumor is the NHL expects to make 2.4billion in this shortened season. (about 72% of last year's revenue, with only 58% of the games and no Winter Classic or All-Star game)
Sources: http://smartblogs.com/finance/2013/06/10/the-revenue-side-of-the-nba-and-nhl-finals/
http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-on-hockey/21805111/report-what-lockout-nhl-expects-24-billion-in-revenue-this-season

The problem is, I don't think you can just double that number and say that would be the revenue for next year. Doubling that would be 4.8billion. The revenue in 2011-2012 was 3.3 billion. That would be almost a 45% increase year over year, when the NHL has been averaging about a 5-10% increase in revenue each year. 2010-2011 revenue was around 2.9 billion, 2009-2010 2.7 billion.

For the sake of arguement, let's say a full season netted the NHL a 15% growth over 2011-2012, and say full season this year would have generated 3.8 billion. And for the sake of argument, lets say the NHL continues on that trend and has 15% growth on this year's 3.8 billion, which would be 4.370 billion.

At 4.370 billion, the 2014-2015 cap would be about 81 million. Very doubtful there is growth of this magnitude, so let's look at some other possible values.
At 3.8 billion revenues, 2014-2015 cap would be 71-72 million.
At 3.5 billion revenues, 2014-2015 cap would be 66-67 million.

The formula for figuring out the cap is to take the revenues for the previous year (in millions) times players share (50%, or .5), subtract 90 million from that for player benefits, then divide by 30 (# of teams in league). This sets the cap midpoint. The midpoint is 8 million LESS than the CAP value, and the NHLPA can apply a 5% midpoint inflator (which they have done all but one year they had the option)

((PY*.50)-90)/30 = Midpoint
Midpoint * 1.05 = Adjusted Midpoint
Adjusted Midpoint + 8 million = CAP
Adjusted Midpoint -14 million = FLOOR (Cap AND Floor can't be less than 8 or more than 14 million away from midpoint. CAP is typically minimum of 8, and floor is typically max away at 14%)

Source for the formula is James Mirtle http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/nhl-salary-cap-to-be-temporarily-set-at-703-million/article4225035/
The only difference is his formula is still showing 57% player percentage of revenue, which is now 50%

There was a lot of doom and gloom that the NHL revenues would take a few years to catch back up to pre-lockout levels, and that would have made the rising of the cap much slower. It is very possible that after this coming season down at 64.3million cap, that the CAP goes right back up to 70million.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby DontToewsMeBro on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:21 am

I know that '))))' is equivalent to ':) :)' but it just seems way more obnoxious that way haha. I love Geno.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Crankshaft on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:22 am

Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Why not both?
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Gaucho on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:23 am

Crankshaft wrote:
Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Why not both?


Works, too. But people were discussing Letang for Top 3 pick scenarios.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby AlexPKeaton on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:23 am

I want one of the top 3 picks for sure. Pens need to get someone on an entry level deal, not an expensive existing defensemen.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby mikey287 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:24 am

Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Finally...to trade a Norris caliber d-man for a draft pick (minus like a Lemieux, Crosby type pick, but that's unrealistic going the other way) is usually a quick way to find the unemployment line. It's an outrageous proposition...ridiculous...
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Bioshock on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:25 am

TRADE LETANG FOR KARLSSON!!!!

DO IT!
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby RxBandit66 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:25 am

:thumb: Good move signing Malkin for that price.

Now, the issue of Letang and Fleury. A ton of cap space would be opened up if those two are moved. Perhaps some of it could be used to bring in another goaltender?

I'm fine with Martin and Iginla on the point next season on the power play, and I'm fine with Vokoun starting in goal as well. They'll be able to get a good return for Letang and hopefully they can replenish some of the draft picks they lost at the deadline.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Crankshaft on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:26 am

mikey287 wrote:
Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Finally...to trade a Norris caliber d-man for a draft pick (minus like a Lemieux, Crosby type pick, but that's unrealistic going the other way) is usually a quick way to find the unemployment line. It's an outrageous proposition...ridiculous...


I would assume the Staal trade would be the template for any Letang trade. 1st round + serviceable replacement + prospect
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby wondermoose on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:27 am

Whew, don't have to rename my dog, Geno, now.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Idoit40fans on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:27 am

FLPensFan wrote:To answer the cap questions, the rumor is the NHL expects to make 2.4billion in this shortened season. (about 72% of last year's revenue, with only 58% of the games and no Winter Classic or All-Star game)
Sources: http://smartblogs.com/finance/2013/06/10/the-revenue-side-of-the-nba-and-nhl-finals/
http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-on-hockey/21805111/report-what-lockout-nhl-expects-24-billion-in-revenue-this-season

The problem is, I don't think you can just double that number and say that would be the revenue for next year. Doubling that would be 4.8billion. The revenue in 2011-2012 was 3.3 billion. That would be almost a 45% increase year over year, when the NHL has been averaging about a 5-10% increase in revenue each year. 2010-2011 revenue was around 2.9 billion, 2009-2010 2.7 billion.

For the sake of arguement, let's say a full season netted the NHL a 15% growth over 2011-2012, and say full season this year would have generated 3.8 billion. And for the sake of argument, lets say the NHL continues on that trend and has 15% growth on this year's 3.8 billion, which would be 4.370 billion.

At 4.370 billion, the 2014-2015 cap would be about 81 million. Very doubtful there is growth of this magnitude, so let's look at some other possible values.
At 3.8 billion revenues, 2014-2015 cap would be 71-72 million.
At 3.5 billion revenues, 2014-2015 cap would be 66-67 million.

The formula for figuring out the cap is to take the revenues for the previous year (in millions) times players share (50%, or .5), subtract 90 million from that for player benefits, then divide by 30 (# of teams in league). This sets the cap midpoint. The midpoint is 8 million LESS than the CAP value, and the NHLPA can apply a 5% midpoint inflator (which they have done all but one year they had the option)

((PY*.50)-90)/30 = Midpoint
Midpoint * 1.05 = Adjusted Midpoint
Adjusted Midpoint + 8 million = CAP
Adjusted Midpoint -14 million = FLOOR (Cap AND Floor can't be less than 8 or more than 14 million away from midpoint. CAP is typically minimum of 8, and floor is typically max away at 14%)

Source for the formula is James Mirtle http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/nhl-salary-cap-to-be-temporarily-set-at-703-million/article4225035/
The only difference is his formula is still showing 57% player percentage of revenue, which is now 50%

There was a lot of doom and gloom that the NHL revenues would take a few years to catch back up to pre-lockout levels, and that would have made the rising of the cap much slower. It is very possible that after this coming season down at 64.3million cap, that the CAP goes right back up to 70million.


I'm pretty sure ceiling and floor are calculated as +/- 15% of the midpoint, not 8 million. 8 million is just the least the difference can be and 14 million is the most that it can be.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Gaucho on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:28 am

wondermoose wrote:Whew, don't have to rename my dog, Geno, now.


Ever heard of the West Ham United fan who named his dogs Paolo and Rio?
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby brwi on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:29 am

pcm wrote:Malkin's deal has nothing to do with Letang, and everything to do with the amount on $ to spend on their wingers.

The team will spend @ $20m on defense no matter what. The question is whether you can have 2 players (Letang and Martin) taking up $12m of that budget. If that's a no, then the question comes down to which player do you keep... The popular sentiment this year is trade Letang. But if you asked people last year, it would have been Martin by a landslide.


Don't agree at all with you here. Martin is signed through 2014-2015 and Letang becomes UFA in 2014. Letang is also going to command a lot more than Martin's 5mil.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby mikey287 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:30 am

Crankshaft wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Finally...to trade a Norris caliber d-man for a draft pick (minus like a Lemieux, Crosby type pick, but that's unrealistic going the other way) is usually a quick way to find the unemployment line. It's an outrageous proposition...ridiculous...


I would assume the Staal trade would be the template for any Letang trade. 1st round + serviceable replacement + prospect


More than that. Unless the serviceable replacement is upgraded for the quality of player. 2nd line center vs. #1 elite PMD. The difference in value is astronomical.

Can't win consistently without a #1 PMD. Never happen, never has. It might be the most valuable player type, so to speak, out there. It's a franchise cornerstone. Has been that way since the forward pass was liberalized and utilized.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Steve Dave on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:31 am

FreeCandy44 wrote:That was quick


That's what she said.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby pfim on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:33 am

Yeah, I mean, I'm all for looking at the future, but getting a pick back for Letang means nothing. The team needs to win now.

I'm not so sure he will be traded. We can be down on his play this playoff season, but 25 minute/night defensemen who play in all situations are difficult to replace. I see the younger guys coming up as replacements for Orpik and Martin, not Letang.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Crankshaft on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:35 am

mikey287 wrote:
Crankshaft wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Finally...to trade a Norris caliber d-man for a draft pick (minus like a Lemieux, Crosby type pick, but that's unrealistic going the other way) is usually a quick way to find the unemployment line. It's an outrageous proposition...ridiculous...


I would assume the Staal trade would be the template for any Letang trade. 1st round + serviceable replacement + prospect


More than that. Unless the serviceable replacement is upgraded for the quality of player. 2nd line center vs. #1 elite PMD. The difference in value is astronomical.

Can't win consistently without a #1 PMD. Never happen, never has. It might be the most valuable player type, so to speak, out there. It's a franchise cornerstone. Has been that way since the forward pass was liberalized and utilized.


Is Paul Martin and Simon Despres enough of a PMD to satiate the need for one or do they need to replace Letang with a Letang-lite?
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Rugbymuffin on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:35 am

Ultimate Sweetness!

Great news, Great move.

Crosby is locked up, Malkin is locked up.

The rest can sort itself out as needed as far as I am concerned.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby pens2005 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:35 am

DontToewsMeBro wrote:16.75M on Perry and Geztlaf.

18.2M on Crosby and Malkin.

I'd say we got pretty good value there, wouldn't you?


So we compare our success with the cap to the Anaheim Ducks? What have they done recently? It makes Anaheim look incredibly stupid, not us incredibly smart.

And please stop saying it was a giant discount. He's the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL.

This is just continuing more of the same. Can't wait to go into the postseason with the exact same roster that has been humiliated the past 4 years with the bumbling MAF behind, in front of, around, hanging from the cage and dumbo behind the bench rooting for the pens to "get to their game".

I love Geno, really do. But we need a new approach here. More of the same crap isn't going to get it done.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:36 am

wondermoose wrote:Whew, don't have to rename my dog, Geno, now.

My dogs name was Disco... He got mauled by a bear a couple of weeks ago. :pop:
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Gaucho on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:36 am

Some people envision our D to consist of Martin, Despres, Bortuzzo, Harrington, Dumoulin, and Pouliot or something like that two years from now. Should be a lot of fun.
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby pens2005 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:36 am

mikey287 wrote:
Crankshaft wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
Gaucho wrote:We don't need picks. Should we trade Letang, we need a proven defenseman in return.


Finally...to trade a Norris caliber d-man for a draft pick (minus like a Lemieux, Crosby type pick, but that's unrealistic going the other way) is usually a quick way to find the unemployment line. It's an outrageous proposition...ridiculous...


I would assume the Staal trade would be the template for any Letang trade. 1st round + serviceable replacement + prospect


More than that. Unless the serviceable replacement is upgraded for the quality of player. 2nd line center vs. #1 elite PMD. The difference in value is astronomical.

Can't win consistently without a #1 PMD. Never happen, never has. It might be the most valuable player type, so to speak, out there. It's a franchise cornerstone. Has been that way since the forward pass was liberalized and utilized.


More than that? You can't afford to sign more than that. You do realize there's a cap, right?
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Gaucho on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:38 am

groan...
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby Rylan on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:41 am

lol
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Re: Malkin signs 8 yr/76m Contract Extension

Postby pens2005 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:41 am

Gaucho wrote:groan...


I just disagree with the approach. I don't think it wins you cups.

You can disagree with me all you want, just my opinion. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see the paper champions winning anything anytime soon because if history serves us correctly I'm spot on.

This board was crying because of Shero's presser yesterday, now everything is fixed because Malkin is still going to be on the roster?
Last edited by pens2005 on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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