Kunitz Extension

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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Pavel Bure on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:27 pm

Dickie Dunn wrote:
Who exactly on that list making under $4 million would you take over Kunitz?

In the scenario of Kunitz lighting it up this season and pricing himself out of Pittsburgh?

Callahan
Pavalski
Steen
Brown
Moulson
Ott
Kulemin
Downie

All 30 or under with similar production. I mean I realize you're going to try and pick it apart and make Kunitz out to be something special and that's okay but there are guys that have similar production and styles who are younger that could fill his role.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby meow on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:28 pm

MRandall25 wrote:
Dickie Dunn wrote:Who exactly on that list making under $4 million would you take over Kunitz?


I'd say Vrbata, but like topshelf said, he's going to make bank his next deal.

Also, holy hell I can't believe the Blackhawks were paying Bolland $3.375M.

I'm a big Vrbata fan, and he is going to make bank on his next deal, but he is so inconsistent, he'd get eaten alive on here.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Pavel Bure on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:30 pm

It's almost like the Colby Armstrong/Max Talbot/Rob Scuderi syndrome with a good number of you. There are always other guys who can step in and perform if a player is too expensive/too old.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby meow on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:31 pm

Pavel Bure wrote:
Dickie Dunn wrote:
Who exactly on that list making under $4 million would you take over Kunitz?

In the scenario of Kunitz lighting it up this season and pricing himself out of Pittsburgh?

Callahan
Pavalski
Steen
Brown
Moulson
Ott
Kulemin
Downie

All 30 or under with similar production. I mean I realize you're going to try and pick it apart and make Kunitz out to be something special and that's okay but there are guys that have similar production and styles who are younger that could fill his role.

I don't want to pick it apart, but how many of those guys are actually going to make it to UFA? Maybe one or two? Maybe all of them? It's another risk to wait for one of those guys.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby MRandall25 on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:31 pm

Pavel Bure wrote:It's almost like the Colby Armstrong/Max Talbot/Rob Scuderi syndrome with a good number of you. There are always other guys who can step in and perform if a player is too expensive/too old.


And Kunitz, at this point, is neither.

I don't even know why we're having this discussion.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby topshelf on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:35 pm

Pavel Bure wrote:It's almost like the Colby Armstrong/Max Talbot/Rob Scuderi syndrome with a good number of you. There are always other guys who can step in and perform if a player is too expensive/too old.


But not for the money. Are there better players out there than Kuntiz? Of course. But are there better players willing to play for 3.85 million? No way.

Look at your list:

Callahan, Pavalski, Brown, Moulson... all going to get a raise, probably in the 5 mil. range.

Ott and Downie replacing Kunitz? LOL.

The reality is, when you have guys like Malkin and Sid making the money they are, you can't chase every $5 mil. winger (we already have one in Neal).

With all of this in mind, Kunitz looks even better at that price than he did 20 minutes ago.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Dickie Dunn on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:43 pm

Pavel Bure wrote:
Dickie Dunn wrote:
Who exactly on that list making under $4 million would you take over Kunitz?

In the scenario of Kunitz lighting it up this season and pricing himself out of Pittsburgh?

Callahan
Pavalski
Steen
Brown
Moulson
Ott
Kulemin
Downie

All 30 or under with similar production. I mean I realize you're going to try and pick it apart and make Kunitz out to be something special and that's okay but there are guys that have similar production and styles who are younger that could fill his role.


Okay. I guess my question should have been "Who on that list is a realistic replacement for Kunitz at a similar cap hit?" That list is made up of guys who aren't going to make it to UFA, are going to get hefty raises, or aren't legitimate replacements for Kunitz.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby SubtropicalPenguin on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:46 pm

Pavel Bure wrote:
meow wrote:
slappybrown wrote:
meow wrote:Under $4 mil for the 8th league leading goal scorer? Sign me up. Why look ahead and guess that the contract is going to be bad in 3 years?

Because you may have gotten him cheaper/fewer years after this season?

Purely speculation. What if he goes out next year and scores 35 goals and wins the Conn Smythe? Glad you got him for under $4mil? What if he can't break into double digit goals? You have to take some risks and I don't think this is entirely that risky of a move.

No, if Kunitz does that then you let him walk. But seriously what's more likely a 34 year old player declining or continuing to have career years. It's silly to say, "What if he does world beating things." I wouldn't be excited for a 35 year old player at 4M with just about any player in the NHL.

35+ Forwards currently in the NHL
Whitney *
Samuelsson
Bertuzzi
Smyth
Doan *
St. Louis *

*denotes 4 or more million


The only one of those I'd say is worth 4M or more is St. Louis. But that's not even part of the argument. Currently there are a whole 6 forwards 35 or older in the NHL. It's not an old man's game. Kunitz is approaching that old man status. The odds of him having another career year are not very good. If someone put odds on Kunitz repeating or bettering his career season or declining, declining takes the bet every time. You just don't pay guys like that a lot of money in the cap era if you want to be a contending team.


Wait... what? There are definitely more 35+ forwards in the NHL. Beyond the players you mentioned:

Jagr*
Selanne*
Alfredsson*
Iginla*
Elias*

Those are just the big names I could think of who were making more than $4 million. I'm sure there are more, but I think you get my point. In any event, 3.85 is really not a huge cap hit for a guy like Kunitz. That being said, I would have preferred a two year extension over a three year extension.

** Edit - I didn't see your later post clarifying that there are currently only 6 forwards under contract for next season 35+
Last edited by SubtropicalPenguin on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby slappybrown on Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:49 pm

Pretty much where I come out.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby taz71 on Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:16 pm

I can't believe how anyone could think this negatively affects negotiations with dupuis. If anything it helps. Sets another precedent of a discount to play with Crosby. Even when Iggy came Crosby was loyal to those two. I think it sets a ceiling for what the Dupuis should be asking if he wants to stay with the Pens. I wouldn't mind giving Duper 4 years if he takes less of a raise.



Dupuis has always been one of the best conditioned players on the pens. There was a special on his exercise regimen in the offseason and how he has continued to get stronger. I don't buy into this age related generalized bias take it on a case by case basis.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Pavel Bure on Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:39 pm

I'll end my view of it not being a good contract with this. Kunitz isn't a future HOF player or a player that was a point per game or higher that will decline into a 50-60 point player. He is a 50-60 point player that will decline to a 30-40 point player and possibly lower depending on if he moves down the line up when new younger players come in. It's a very real possibility the Pens will have an injury prone 3rd/4th liner getting no power play time by the 2nd year of his extension. Yes he could stay healthy and continue producing but looking at other players of his similar age/production history he's going to decline and decline sharply. 3.875M for a 1st liner? Great. 3.875M for a 3rd/4th liner? Not great.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby meow on Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:09 pm

Pavel Bure wrote:I'll end my view of it not being a good contract with this. Kunitz isn't a future HOF player or a player that was a point per game or higher that will decline into a 50-60 point player. He is a 50-60 point player that will decline to a 30-40 point player and possibly lower depending on if he moves down the line up when new younger players come in. It's a very real possibility the Pens will have an injury prone 3rd/4th liner getting no power play time by the 2nd year of his extension. Yes he could stay healthy and continue producing but looking at other players of his similar age/production history he's going to decline and decline sharply. 3.875M for a 1st liner? Great. 3.875M for a 3rd/4th liner? Not great.

I think this is something everyone can agree on. He might decline within the life of this contract. He might not. Who knows?
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby slappybrown on Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:05 pm

meow wrote:
Pavel Bure wrote:I'll end my view of it not being a good contract with this. Kunitz isn't a future HOF player or a player that was a point per game or higher that will decline into a 50-60 point player. He is a 50-60 point player that will decline to a 30-40 point player and possibly lower depending on if he moves down the line up when new younger players come in. It's a very real possibility the Pens will have an injury prone 3rd/4th liner getting no power play time by the 2nd year of his extension. Yes he could stay healthy and continue producing but looking at other players of his similar age/production history he's going to decline and decline sharply. 3.875M for a 1st liner? Great. 3.875M for a 3rd/4th liner? Not great.

I think this is something everyone can agree on. He might decline within the life of this contract. He might not. Who knows?

I do. He's going to decline during the life of the contract. It's the degree of that decline.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby joker10277 on Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:36 pm

Bad deal, hes now signed for 4 years.............he might be productive for 2.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby BurghersAndDogsSports on Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:58 pm

I'm going to play mediator here just like in the Sutter / Staal threads.

There is truth to both sides. He still tries to play physical and the stats reflect that. His hits are still there and he still produces (although I don't like using points when comparing pens forwards to any across the league - we play open with Sid and Geno, all of our stats are inflated).

But just like we need more out of the third line we need more out of a guy like Kunitz and his play is flat out declining so yes it's opinion based but its based on watching games. A logical conclusion to make (especially when adding in his size and style over the years, think nfl RB) is that 4 more years is a long time for him specifically.

Nobody complained when he had one goal in the 2009 playoffs because he helped carry the play, create turnovers, create momentum and certainly helped open space for Sid. He doesn't do that anymore. That's not opinion, that's a fact. Sid and Geno are counted on more and more each game and round and his declining play is part of the reason.

Is it a horrible deal? No. Is it risky? Yup. Is it less risky because we have nobody signed and no forwards to call up at entry level deals? In a round about way yes.

So the stats say he still produces and hits and that is true. But his play has declined so logically guessing that a smaller forward who made his career off being physical and is slowing down will not be a solid signing at 37 even at a decent rate is not a stretch.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Henry Hank on Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:13 pm

Lots of people were making the same arguments last time Kunitz signed an extension. Getting too old, about to decline, not that good, whatever. Every year at the beginning of the season someone starts complaining about Kunitz and about how old and slow and broken down he's looking. Then he puts up another really solid season. No respect for this guy.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby MRandall25 on Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:15 pm

I definitely recall people wanted Kunitz gone until he had the 4 goal game against the Caps.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby slappybrown on Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:52 pm

Henry Hank wrote:Lots of people were making the same arguments last time Kunitz signed an extension. Getting too old, about to decline, not that good, whatever. Every year at the beginning of the season someone starts complaining about Kunitz and about how old and slow and broken down he's looking. Then he puts up another really solid season. No respect for this guy.


There's a big difference between the last one and this one. I've defended him in this thread but being concerned about the last two years of the deal isn't "disrespectful"
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby slappybrown on Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:53 pm

MRandall25 wrote:I definitely recall people wanted Kunitz gone until he had the 4 goal game against the Caps.

If that is a thing, I don't think any of those people are posting here. No one "hates" or "disrespects" Kunitz in this thread IMO
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby MRandall25 on Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:55 pm

slappybrown wrote:
MRandall25 wrote:I definitely recall people wanted Kunitz gone until he had the 4 goal game against the Caps.

If that is a thing, I don't think any of those people are posting here. No one "hates" or "disrespects" Kunitz in this thread IMO


It was most definitely a thing. Those people suddenly became his biggest fans afterwards.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Henry Hank on Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:12 pm

slappybrown wrote:
Henry Hank wrote:Lots of people were making the same arguments last time Kunitz signed an extension. Getting too old, about to decline, not that good, whatever. Every year at the beginning of the season someone starts complaining about Kunitz and about how old and slow and broken down he's looking. Then he puts up another really solid season. No respect for this guy.


There's a big difference between the last one and this one. I've defended him in this thread but being concerned about the last two years of the deal isn't "disrespectful"


It's just the general trend with Kunitz. For years he was called a "glorified third liner" too. He's done nothing but produce as a Penguins. I agree there's some reason for concern as he gets older but then again I also don't think 34, 35, even 36 years old is ancient. Plenty of players remain effective into their mid-30's. Kunitz isn't a guy that relies on skill all that much so maybe he's not a guy that declines as quickly. I think it's a no brainer to keep him at a reasonable price, even if the last year or so is a bit of a gamble. It's not the kind of gamble that will sink the team if it doesn't work out.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby pcm on Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:01 am

Henry Hank wrote:Kunitz isn't a guy that relies on skill all that much so maybe he's not a guy that declines as quickly.


This is, as they say, bass ackwards. Players lose their speed, their bodies break down, they become less physical, etc as they age. The ones who can still play past 35 are the guys with skill. No question. Kunitz will lose (at a variable rate) the tools that make him effective, and he doesn't have tons of skill or hockey smarts to rely on.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Henry Hank on Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:12 am

I don't think it's backwards. Guys that rely on pure skill like Kovalev, Sykora, and Satan to use a few recent examples for the Pens, seemed to have completely lost it a lot quicker than someone like Guerin who was here in his late 30's and still playing meaningful hockey. Kunitz plays a simple and smart game, I think that still plays even when you start losing some hand-eye coordination and even some speed.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby Desiato on Fri Jun 28, 2013 3:12 am

I think part of keeping the Penguins a 'destination franchise' is treating guys right. Kunitz earned this. I'm glad he may finish his career a Pen.
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Re: Kunitz Extension

Postby RxBandit66 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:32 am

Henry Hank wrote:I don't think it's backwards. Guys that rely on pure skill like Kovalev, Sykora, and Satan to use a few recent examples for the Pens, seemed to have completely lost it a lot quicker than someone like Guerin who was here in his late 30's and still playing meaningful hockey. Kunitz plays a simple and smart game, I think that still plays even when you start losing some hand-eye coordination and even some speed.


The only way I could see a measurable decline in Kunitz during the life of this contract is if injuries start taking a toll. He has had some issues with that in the past, and he appears to wear down in the postseason. But any player can get hurt at any time, that's just a chance you take. Kunitz has been the glue on the team's top two lines the past several seasons. And if they're serious about giving Bennett a shot on either of the top 2 lines, they'll need vets like Kunitz and Duper to balance things out.
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