Fleury is done

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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Rylan on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:43 pm

:pop:
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby MRandall25 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:46 pm

The numerous things you've chosen to magnify and pick on, because there's nothing else for you to complain about.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Jim on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:46 pm

meow wrote:
Jim wrote:If Fleury can't handle playing the vast majority of games then that is simply one more strike against his supposed greatness. Why does Fleury's ability to perform at a high level come with so many caveats?

Hahahahahaha


It is a valid comment for any goalie, starting goalie more specifically. You can put any starter/star goalie name in there and the comment holds true.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Rylan on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:49 pm

Jim wrote:
meow wrote:
Jim wrote:If Fleury can't handle playing the vast majority of games then that is simply one more strike against his supposed greatness. Why does Fleury's ability to perform at a high level come with so many caveats?

Hahahahahaha


It is a valid comment for any goalie, starting goalie more specifically. You can put any starter/star goalie name in there and the comment holds true.


no.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Jim on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:53 pm

MRandall25 wrote:The numerous things you've chosen to magnify and pick on, because there's nothing else for you to complain about.


So then no example... because your comment doesn't hold water. Even if you do not hold the same opinion/position when it comes right down to it my comments are simply being critical and not irrational. Difference in opinion does not make the discussion irrational. If I argued that Fleury was 4 foot 7 and had no teeth... that would be irrational. Saying that a starting goalie that "can't" start a vast majority of the games hurts that goalies star status... that isn't irrational.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Rylan on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:54 pm

Jim wrote:
MRandall25 wrote:The numerous things you've chosen to magnify and pick on, because there's nothing else for you to complain about.


So then no example... because your comment doesn't hold water. Even if you do not hold the same opinion/position when it comes right down to it my comments are simply being critical and not irrational. Difference in opinion does not make the discussion irrational. If I argued that Fleury was 4 foot 7 and had no teeth... that would be irrational. Saying that a starting goalie that "can't" start a vast majority of the games hurts that goalies star status... that isn't irrational.


Stop speaking in generalities and state specific numbers then. Saying generic stuff isn't irrational, but its so vague that it can be perceived either way.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby MRandall25 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:54 pm

And you continue to ignore the facts that show that is not the case.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby MRandall25 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:55 pm

And it is possible to be irrationally critical :pop:
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Jim on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:01 pm

Rylan wrote:
Jim wrote:
MRandall25 wrote:The numerous things you've chosen to magnify and pick on, because there's nothing else for you to complain about.


So then no example... because your comment doesn't hold water. Even if you do not hold the same opinion/position when it comes right down to it my comments are simply being critical and not irrational. Difference in opinion does not make the discussion irrational. If I argued that Fleury was 4 foot 7 and had no teeth... that would be irrational. Saying that a starting goalie that "can't" start a vast majority of the games hurts that goalies star status... that isn't irrational.


Stop speaking in generalities and state specific numbers then. Saying generic stuff isn't irrational, but its so vague that it can be perceived either way.


I admit that I don't have specific numbers for some of these things, I am not a coach, I am a fan. However, someone mentioned 70 and I do not think that 70 games is outrageous. These are extremely fit professional athletes. Endurance is one of the factors that help draw a line between an average goalie and an elite goalie. I am not saying that he needs to start 70, but I do think that he should be fully capable of it.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby MRandall25 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:05 pm

And yet there are numbers that say you have a > 90% of not making the finals if you play your goalie more than 60 games and his name is not Martin Brodeur.

You can say all you want about how many games he "should" be able to start, but it still wouldn't be smart to play him that many.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby mikey287 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:05 pm

It's mentally taxing to play that many games, it's not the isolated 60 minutes of that physical exertion. And, on the physical side, that physical exertion is cumulative. It doesn't wash away even with a game off. That's part of the reason why you see things like "Stanley Cup hangovers" and all this and that...even seen at the individual game level with elongated first shifts.

Proper time management is important aspect of coaching: training, rest regimens off ice + in-game management. Physical and mental repercussions abound if the coach fails.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Froggy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:15 pm

effective troll is effective. I'm done. you guys should be done, too.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby tfrizz on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:23 pm

mikey287 wrote:It's mentally taxing to play that many games, it's not the isolated 60 minutes of that physical exertion. And, on the physical side, that physical exertion is cumulative. It doesn't wash away even with a game off. That's part of the reason why you see things like "Stanley Cup hangovers" and all this and that...even seen at the individual game level with elongated first shifts.

Proper time management is important aspect of coaching: training, rest regimens off ice + in-game management. Physical and mental repercussions abound if the coach fails.


The only difference I could see between this season and most others is the Olympics. A 20 day break throughout most of February should serve as a nice "freshening" period for those who don't travel to Sochi.


I think it's also important to consider the number of back-to-backs, not only in the context of the team but of the division and conference as well. New Jersey has the most in the league with 22, followed by Carolina with 20, Chicago & NY Islanders with 18, and the Pens + 5 others with 17. At the bottom of the list are Colorado, San Jose, and Winnipeg with 10 a piece.

Of the Pens' 17 back-to-back scenarios, only 2 are "Home-Home" which means 15 involve travel between games. This means the Pens' backup, whether it's Zatkoff or someone else, should start at least 15 games to cover these taxing situations.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/ ... -team.aspx
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Jim on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:27 pm

MRandall25 wrote:And you continue to ignore the facts that show that is not the case.


Then counter what I said with the facts that you spoke about. If anything it might help change my opinion/position of that specific topic.

I saw the comments about the 60 starts/Cup winners data. I chucked that fact into the opinion-processor and while it didn't change my final position of a starter should be able to start a lot more than most people feel, it did soften it a bit in that shows a level of proof via track record.

If one wanted to run with that discussion you would also have to look at who the backups were in those situations. Were these Cup winners with 60ish starts manned with a quality backup, someone that you do not actually fret starting (like Vokoun), or did they have "eh" backups (like a 6th year pro with no previous NHL games) but rested the starters anyway?

The average regular season starts by the last 10 Cup winners is 61 (* guess solely for argument sake only) is a fact, black and white. You need to have no more than 60 starts for a good chance to with the cup is opinion, all sorts of gray.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Jim on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:28 pm

Froggy wrote:effective troll is effective. I'm done. you guys should be done, too.



So a troll to you is anyone that soes not share your opinion. :face:
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Idoit40fans on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:39 pm

Yeah, this is clearly not trolling, but making a post like that telling everyone to walk away is pretty inflammatory.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby DropEmJayBird on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:47 pm

This isn't an argument, it's just contradiction.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby llipgh2 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:53 pm

Froggy wrote:effective troll is effective. I'm done. you guys should be done, too.


F...O...E....
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby meow on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:55 pm

This interested me, so I did some quick research to hopefully back up my theory that the magic number for games played for a goalie should be between 55 and 60 regular season contests. Below is the eventual cup winning goaltender and how many regular season games they played. I decided to go back to the 1989-90 season.

89-90: Bill Ranford - 56 games (70% of team's regular season games)
90-91: Tom Barrasso - 48 games (60% of team's regular season games)
91-92: Tom Barrasso - 57 games (71% of team's regular season games)
92-93: Patrick Roy - 62 games (73% of team's regular season games)
93-94: Mike Ritcher - 68 games (80% of team's regular season games)
94-95: Marty Brodeur - 40 games (55 game season. It works out to 72% of the team's game, which equates to 59 of 82)
95-96: Patrick Roy - 39 games (47% of team's regular season games)
96-97: Chris Osgood - 47 games (57% of team's regular season games)
97-98: Chris Osgood - 64 games (78% of team's regular season games)
98-99: Ed Belfour: 61 games (74% of team's regular season games)
99-00: Marty Brodeur: 72 games (87% of team's regular season games)
00-01: Patrick Roy - 62 games (75% of team's regular season games)
01-02: Dominick Hasek 65 games (79% of team's regular season games)
02-03: Marty Brodeur: 73 games (89% of team's regular season games)
03-04: Nik Khabibulin: 55 games (67% of team's regular season games)
04-05: Lockout
05-06: Cam Ward: 28 games (34% of team's regular season games)
06-07: J.S. Giguere - 56 games (68% of team's regular season games)
07-08: Chris Osgood - 43 games (52% of team's regular season games)
08-09: M.A. Fleury - 62 games (75% of team's regular season games)
09-10: Antti Nieme - 39 games (47% of team's regular season games)
10-11: Tim Thomas - 57 games (69% of team's regular season games)
11-12: John Quick - 69 games (84% of team's regular season games)
12-13: Corey Crawford - 30 games (48 game season. It works out to 62% of the team's game, which equates to 51 of 82)

So, if you add up the total number of games each Cup winner goalie played the season they won the Cup, since the 1989-90 season, the sum is 1,253. The total number of regular season games played in those years adds up to 1,823. 1,253 / 1,823= 68.73% which is roughly 56 games per 82 game season.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby tfrizz on Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:59 pm

Jim wrote:
MRandall25 wrote:And you continue to ignore the facts that show that is not the case.


Then counter what I said with the facts that you spoke about. If anything it might help change my opinion/position of that specific topic.

I saw the comments about the 60 starts/Cup winners data. I chucked that fact into the opinion-processor and while it didn't change my final position of a starter should be able to start a lot more than most people feel, it did soften it a bit in that shows a level of proof via track record.

If one wanted to run with that discussion you would also have to look at who the backups were in those situations. Were these Cup winners with 60ish starts manned with a quality backup, someone that you do not actually fret starting (like Vokoun), or did they have "eh" backups (like a 6th year pro with no previous NHL games) but rested the starters anyway?

The average regular season starts by the last 10 Cup winners is 61 (* guess solely for argument sake only) is a fact, black and white. You need to have no more than 60 starts for a good chance to with the cup is opinion, all sorts of gray.


You can extrapolate that, though, and say that the further beyond 61 games your starter goes, the less likely your team is to win the cup.

To address the previous portion of your post, here's the list of goalies to start >= 70 games in a season since 2005-06, their backup, and how they faired:

2011-12
Jonas Hiller, ANA (73) - Backup(s): D Ellis, J Deslauriers, I Tarkki - Result: Missed Playoffs
Pekka Rinne, NSH (72) - Backup(s): A Lindback - Result: Lost in 2nd Round (4-1)

2010-11
Cam Ward, CAR (74) - Backup(s): J Peters - Result: Missed Playoffs
Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY (71) - Backup(s): H Karlsson - Result: Missed Playoffs
Carey Price, MTL (70) - Backup(s): A Auld - Result: in 1st Round (4-0)

2009-10
Martin Brodeur, NJD (76) - Backup(s): Y Danis - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-1)
Jonathan Quick, LAK (72) - Backup(s): E Ersberg, J Bernier - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-2)
Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY (72) - Backup(s): C McElhinney, V Toskala - Result: Missed Playoffs
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (72) - Backup(s): S Valiquette, C Johnson, A Auld, M Zaba - Result: Missed Playoffs
Evgeni Nabokov, SJS (71) - Backup(s): T Greiss - Result: Lost in 3rd Round (4-0)
Craig Anderson, COL (71) - Backup(s): P Budaj - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-2)

2008-09
Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY (76) - Backup(s): C McElhinney - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-2)
Marty Turco, DAL (74) - Backup(s): T Stephan, M Climie, B Krahn - Result: Missed Playoffs
Niklas Backstrom, MIN (71) - Backup(s): J Harding - Result: Missed Playoffs
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (70) - Backup(s): S Valiquette - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-3)

2007-08
Evgeni Nabokov, SJS (77) - Backup(s): B Boucher, T Greiss, D Patzold - Result: Lost in 2nd Round (4-2)
Martin Brodeur, NJD (77) - Backup(s): K Weekes - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-1)
Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY (76) - Backup(s): C Joseph, C McElhinney, M Keetley - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-3)
Ryan Miller, BUF (75) - Backup(s): J Thibault - Result: Missed Playoffs
Roberto Luongo, VAN (73) - Backup(s): C Sanford, D MacIntyre - Result: Missed Playoffs
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (72) - Backup(s): S Valiquette - Result: Lost in 2nd Round (4-1)

2006-07
Martin Brodeur, NJD (78) - Backup(s): S Clemmensen - Result: Lost in 2nd Round (4-1)
Roberto Luongo, VAN (75) - Backup(s): D Sabourin - Result: Lost in 2nd Round (4-1)
Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY (74) - Backup(s): J McLennan - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-2)
Andrew Raycroft, TOR (71) - Backup(s): JS Aubin, M Tellqvist - Result: Missed Playoffs

2005-06
Martin Brodeur, NJD (73) - Backup(s): S Clemmensen - Result: Lost in 2nd Round (4-1)
Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY (73) - Backup(s): P Sauve, B Boucher - Result: Lost in 1st Round (4-3)
Roberto Luongo, FLA (72) - Backup(s): J McLennan - Result: Missed Playoffs


So since the 2004-05 lockout, there have been 28 cases of a goalie starting 70 or more games in a season. That was accomplished by 15 unique goaltenders. Of those 28 instances, 11 missed the playoffs, 10 were eliminated in the 1st round, 6 were eliminated in the 2nd round, and 1 was eliminated in the conference final.

That means that, since the lockout, your odds on advancing to each playoff round when your #1 goalie started 70+ games in the regular season are:
  • 1st Round: 60.7%
  • 2nd Round: 25%
  • 3rd Round: 3.6% (Conference Final)
  • 4th Round: 0% (Stanley Cup Final)
Simply put, any team with Cup aspirations should not be looking for their starter to play 70+ games in a season. 55-65 seems to be the most acceptable range.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Great58 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:03 pm

meow wrote:This interested me, so I did some quick research to hopefully back up my theory that the magic number for games played for a goalie should be between 55 and 60 regular season contests. Below is the eventual cup winning goaltender and how many regular season games they played. I decided to go back to the 1989-90 season.

89-90: Bill Ranford - 56 games (70% of team's regular season games)
90-91: Tom Barrasso - 48 games (60% of team's regular season games)
91-92: Tom Barrasso - 57 games (71% of team's regular season games)
92-93: Patrick Roy - 62 games (73% of team's regular season games)
93-94: Mike Ritcher - 68 games (80% of team's regular season games)
94-95: Marty Brodeur - 40 games (55 game season. It works out to 72% of the team's game, which equates to 59 of 82)
95-96: Patrick Roy - 39 games (47% of team's regular season games)
96-97: Chris Osgood - 47 games (57% of team's regular season games)
97-98: Chris Osgood - 64 games (78% of team's regular season games)
98-99: Ed Belfour: 61 games (74% of team's regular season games)
99-00: Marty Brodeur: 72 games (87% of team's regular season games)
00-01: Patrick Roy - 62 games (75% of team's regular season games)
01-02: Dominick Hasek 65 games (79% of team's regular season games)
02-03: Marty Brodeur: 73 games (89% of team's regular season games)
03-04: Nik Khabibulin: 55 games (67% of team's regular season games)
04-05: Lockout
05-06: Cam Ward: 28 games (34% of team's regular season games)
06-07: J.S. Giguere - 56 games (68% of team's regular season games)
07-08: Chris Osgood - 43 games (52% of team's regular season games)
08-09: M.A. Fleury - 62 games (75% of team's regular season games)
09-10: Antti Nieme - 39 games (47% of team's regular season games)
10-11: Tim Thomas - 57 games (69% of team's regular season games)
11-12: John Quick - 69 games (84% of team's regular season games)
12-13: Corey Crawford - 30 games (48 game season. It works out to 62% of the team's game, which equates to 51 of 82)

So, if you add up the total number of games each Cup winner goalie played the season they won the Cup, since the 1989-90 season, the sum is 1,253. The total number of regular season games played in those years adds up to 1,823. 1,253 / 1,823= 68.73% which is roughly 56 games per 82 game season.

Pretty similar on the losing side of the Finals as well.
Roloson played only 18 regular season games in 2005-2006
Emery 58 in '07
Fleury 35 in '08
Osgood 46 in '09
Leighton an anomaly in '10 with 68 games among 3 teams
Luongo 60 in '11
Brodeur 59 in '12
Rask with 34 in '13

So I don't see it as a knock against any starting goalie that 60 or fewer starts in the regular season is optimal.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Great58 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:05 pm

I was lazy and just went back to the lockout.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby DropEmJayBird on Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:08 pm

If Fleury can't start all 82, and post a shut out every night - then we need to trade him right now and get someone in here who can, like a Ray Emery or maybe sign Marty Biron - guys with proven track records that are not messed up in the head.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Beveridge on Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:30 pm

Playoffs are ~6 months away and I'm already excited for this thread then.
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Re: Fleury is done

Postby Jim on Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:01 pm

tfrizz laying down a lot of data that is going to take a few to digest...

On a side... I was watching a DVR'd In The Room and Bales was talking about Fleury. I know that we were all kind of "eeeehhhhh" when Bales was hired... but... What portion of Fleury's good start do people think is directly related to the switch from Maloche to Bales?
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