The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey Team

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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby slappybrown on Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:14 pm

What percent of a goalies save percentage do you attribute to his team versus his own abilities?
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby the wicked child on Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:16 pm

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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby slappybrown on Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:17 pm

shmenguin wrote:
mikey287 wrote:Very subjective stat. Also, I don't believe that a scoring chance necessarily has to be a shot, if I'm not mistaken. Varies by scorer, I believe.


Well you'd only count shots on goal obviously.

It's subjective, but I wonder how the numbers would shake out. I wouldn't be surprised if the best goalies were generally at the top. Though I bet "non-scoring chance save percentage" would be more telling. I think rask and pavelic might appropriately bookend that stat.

The problem with scoring chances is the PP numbers. If you take those out, your sample size is relatively small. You can fix the bias and subjectivity to some extent by comparing road and home numbers.

This is also why ev save % is a better predictor of future performance once you've hit a certain amount of shots faced.

This is a good piece on it:
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2012/1 ... n-strength
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby meow on Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:09 am

slappybrown wrote:What percent of a goalies save percentage do you attribute to his team versus his own abilities?

Good question. I have not really given it much thought before. Maybe 0.75 - 1% if all other things are equal. If Rask and Pavelec face the exact same 100 shots, Pavelec might give up one additional goal.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby slappybrown on Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:57 am

meow wrote:
slappybrown wrote:What percent of a goalies save percentage do you attribute to his team versus his own abilities?

Good question. I have not really given it much thought before. Maybe 0.75 - 1% if all other things are equal. If Rask and Pavelec face the exact same 100 shots, Pavelec might give up one additional goal.

I think in your example, where the goalies face the exact same shots, then the save percentage of the goalie is 100% attributable to the goalie's ability rather than team defense. This is what is meant by shot quality not being a driver for save percentage to the extent presumed.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Jesse on Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:46 am

mikey287 wrote:I don't want to open up this can of worms...but that doesn't pass the smell test at all...not that the math is no good, but what are we talking about Z-scores and what not for? With all due respect...the difference between most relevant goalies is a couple tenths of a percent, right? It's not like old days when there were so many different tiers of goaltenders.

Of goalies that played >50 games this year (18 of them), 4 of them are above .922 and 3 of them are below .915...0.7%. They average about 1630 some-odd shots...meaning that over ~60 games, they are about 5 goals (or 5 saves) away from being in that "elite" tier or in that "not good" tier relative to save percentage. And that's before the obvious on the rink stuff...

I won't go down the whole "what's happening on the rink isn't necessarily translating well to paper" thing because it's been done...but just from a paper perspective, is it really...for lack of a better word...necessary...? Isn't there some statistical term for less than 1%...noise? No? I really don't know, I'm not being flippant...


Not really. As I pointed out in my post, some deviations are higher than others, and the higher the deviation, the more significant it is. I didn't really expect to get blasted for posting that stat. Advanced metrics for me are used to back up what the eye test says. Nothing beats the eye test. I just thought it was a neat stat. Sorry for ruining everyone's day.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Great58 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:00 pm

Jesse wrote:
mikey287 wrote:I don't want to open up this can of worms...but that doesn't pass the smell test at all...not that the math is no good, but what are we talking about Z-scores and what not for? With all due respect...the difference between most relevant goalies is a couple tenths of a percent, right? It's not like old days when there were so many different tiers of goaltenders.

Of goalies that played >50 games this year (18 of them), 4 of them are above .922 and 3 of them are below .915...0.7%. They average about 1630 some-odd shots...meaning that over ~60 games, they are about 5 goals (or 5 saves) away from being in that "elite" tier or in that "not good" tier relative to save percentage. And that's before the obvious on the rink stuff...

I won't go down the whole "what's happening on the rink isn't necessarily translating well to paper" thing because it's been done...but just from a paper perspective, is it really...for lack of a better word...necessary...? Isn't there some statistical term for less than 1%...noise? No? I really don't know, I'm not being flippant...


Not really. As I pointed out in my post, some deviations are higher than others, and the higher the deviation, the more significant it is. I didn't really expect to get blasted for posting that stat. Advanced metrics for me are used to back up what the eye test says. Nothing beats the eye test. I just thought it was a neat stat. Sorry for ruining everyone's day.

Well, since I opened this can of worms, I apologize, but thank you Jesse for explaining further what you mean. I had thought you were referring to a hockey specific advanced statistic, not a statistical analysis tool. My own stats training is too far removed to remember the details, so your refresher was appreciated.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Jesse on Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:20 pm

Great58 wrote:
Jesse wrote:
mikey287 wrote:I don't want to open up this can of worms...but that doesn't pass the smell test at all...not that the math is no good, but what are we talking about Z-scores and what not for? With all due respect...the difference between most relevant goalies is a couple tenths of a percent, right? It's not like old days when there were so many different tiers of goaltenders.

Of goalies that played >50 games this year (18 of them), 4 of them are above .922 and 3 of them are below .915...0.7%. They average about 1630 some-odd shots...meaning that over ~60 games, they are about 5 goals (or 5 saves) away from being in that "elite" tier or in that "not good" tier relative to save percentage. And that's before the obvious on the rink stuff...

I won't go down the whole "what's happening on the rink isn't necessarily translating well to paper" thing because it's been done...but just from a paper perspective, is it really...for lack of a better word...necessary...? Isn't there some statistical term for less than 1%...noise? No? I really don't know, I'm not being flippant...


Not really. As I pointed out in my post, some deviations are higher than others, and the higher the deviation, the more significant it is. I didn't really expect to get blasted for posting that stat. Advanced metrics for me are used to back up what the eye test says. Nothing beats the eye test. I just thought it was a neat stat. Sorry for ruining everyone's day.

Well, since I opened this can of worms, I apologize, but thank you Jesse for explaining further what you mean. I had thought you were referring to a hockey specific advanced statistic, not a statistical analysis tool. My own stats training is too far removed to remember the details, so your refresher was appreciated.


I was being sarcastic at the end. There are a lot of fun advanced goaltending metrics. Some others I use:

Goal Differential, measures how many goals the goaltender prevented above a league-average goaltender.

A league-average goaltender would allow (1 - League Average SV%) * (Shots Faced) goals, and so:

GD = ((1 - League Average SV%) * (Shots Faced)) - (Goals Against)


----

Support-Neutral Winning Percentage, asks the following question - if a goaltender played for a team that allowed as many shots against as shots for, and was playing against a league average goaltender, what would their winning percentage be? On this site, the calculation is done using the "basic" Pythagorean formula to predict winning percentage

SNW% = (Goals Scored^2) / ((Goals Scored^2) + (Goals Allowed^2))

Or in this case:

SNW% = ((1 - League Average SV%) * Shots Allowed)^2 / (Goals Against^2 + ((1 - League Average SV%) * Shots Allowed)^2)

Note that, unlike the goaltender's winning percentage, this metric is guaranteed to be such where a league average goaltender scores out with a 50% winning percentage.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby mikey287 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:58 pm

Jesse wrote:Nothing beats the eye test.


Whew, thought I lost you for a minute...good hockey man.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby BigMcK on Wed Apr 09, 2014 11:04 pm

Stephane Robidas, credits Michele Therein for teaching him to be a better hockey player. While in Montreal, Michele told him that he could not rely on skill alone to play hockey; he needed to learn to hit and play the body. He said a stern coach that teaches and was on his back made him an NHL professional player.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Nizzy on Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:18 am

mikey287 wrote:
Jesse wrote:Nothing beats the eye test.


Whew, thought I lost you for a minute...good hockey man.


Jesse,

I'm sorry, post whatever charts you want. This team has no net presence what-so-ever. It's simply what I'm seeing out there.

They still look horrid for 5 on 5 hockey, never clear the net, have nobody that can stand around the other teams net. There is no fight, desperation or urgency. Detroit had so many chances late game/OT. Over a course of a series that stuff will get you in trouble. If Crosby doesn't skate through 4 guys or someone lasers a shot, the Pens don't get scoring chances.

Payerl - Vitale - Megna could be the 4th line right now. SPEED SPEED SPEED, and more talent than Adams/Glass/Pyatt ever had. You do not win cups with 3 old vets on the 4th line. You win cups with hungry, young players that need to prove it. You want Fringe grinder players on the roster? Okay, give me the younger guys that are still trying to make the NHL, not the has-beens. 5'7 Gibbons shouldn't even be playing over some of these guys.

It's okay everything is okay in Penguin land:
-Crosby got art ross/100 points
-Bylsma has his regular season wins
-Letang is back!! Because that's just what we needed! More offense, another guy who gets rattled easily, and is never disciplined by the coach for making mistakes!

Everything is pointing to this team being a complete playoff failure. I don't know how some of you guys aren't seeing it.

Put Bergeron on Crosby, Chara's going to bump him in the mouth, Crosby will cry to the Refs, and the season will be over again.

Great Job Dan/Rayjean. Both needed to be F'n canned.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby murphydump55 on Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:31 am

Nizzy wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
Jesse wrote:Nothing beats the eye test.


Whew, thought I lost you for a minute...good hockey man.


Jesse,

I'm sorry, post whatever charts you want. This team has no net presence what-so-ever. It's simply what I'm seeing out there.

They still look horrid for 5 on 5 hockey, never clear the net, have nobody that can stand around the other teams net. There is no fight, desperation or urgency. Detroit had so many chances late game/OT. Over a course of a series that stuff will get you in trouble. If Crosby doesn't skate through 4 guys or someone lasers a shot, the Pens don't get scoring chances.

Payerl - Vitale - Megna could be the 4th line right now. SPEED SPEED SPEED, and more talent than Adams/Glass/Pyatt ever had. You do not win cups with 3 old vets on the 4th line. You win cups with hungry, young players that need to prove it. You want Fringe grinder players on the roster? Okay, give me the younger guys that are still trying to make the NHL, not the has-beens. 5'7 Gibbons shouldn't even be playing over some of these guys.

It's okay everything is okay in Penguin land:
-Crosby got art ross/100 points
-Bylsma has his regular season wins
-Letang is back!! Because that's just what we needed! More offense, another guy who gets rattled easily, and is never disciplined by the coach for making mistakes!

Everything is pointing to this team being a complete playoff failure. I don't know how some of you guys aren't seeing it.

Put Bergeron on Crosby, Chara's going to bump him in the mouth, Crosby will cry to the Refs, and the season will be over again.

Great Job Dan/Rayjean. Both needed to be F'n canned.


Can't say I totally disagree. Malkin will help the team but I doubt they have what it takes overall.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby taz71 on Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:51 am

It is absolutely evil for anyone to say any crap about Letang right now. He could sit down and collect his salary. I consider him a hero for coming back ... let alone this year.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby slappybrown on Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:12 am

Nizzy wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
Jesse wrote:Nothing beats the eye test.


Whew, thought I lost you for a minute...good hockey man.


Jesse,

I'm sorry, post whatever charts you want. This team has no net presence what-so-ever. It's simply what I'm seeing out there.

They still look horrid for 5 on 5 hockey, never clear the net, have nobody that can stand around the other teams net. There is no fight, desperation or urgency. Detroit had so many chances late game/OT. Over a course of a series that stuff will get you in trouble. If Crosby doesn't skate through 4 guys or someone lasers a shot, the Pens don't get scoring chances.

Payerl - Vitale - Megna could be the 4th line right now. SPEED SPEED SPEED, and more talent than Adams/Glass/Pyatt ever had. You do not win cups with 3 old vets on the 4th line. You win cups with hungry, young players that need to prove it. You want Fringe grinder players on the roster? Okay, give me the younger guys that are still trying to make the NHL, not the has-beens. 5'7 Gibbons shouldn't even be playing over some of these guys.

It's okay everything is okay in Penguin land:
-Crosby got art ross/100 points
-Bylsma has his regular season wins
-Letang is back!! Because that's just what we needed! More offense, another guy who gets rattled easily, and is never disciplined by the coach for making mistakes!

Everything is pointing to this team being a complete playoff failure. I don't know how some of you guys aren't seeing it.

Put Bergeron on Crosby, Chara's going to bump him in the mouth, Crosby will cry to the Refs, and the season will be over again.

Great Job Dan/Rayjean. Both needed to be F'n canned.


By your own admission, you've watched 5 games all year. They've played 80. How do you have any idea how they play? Why should anyone care about an opinion formed by watching 7% of games played?
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby sil on Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:34 am

Do we not see playoff failure coming? There will be 16 teams trying and only one of them will not have a playoff failure. There's a very strong likelihood we will see playoff failure soon. The difference I see is that some of us already have our scapegoats lined up.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Factorial on Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:44 am

slappybrown wrote:
Nizzy wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
Jesse wrote:Nothing beats the eye test.


Whew, thought I lost you for a minute...good hockey man.


Jesse,

I'm sorry, post whatever charts you want. This team has no net presence what-so-ever. It's simply what I'm seeing out there.

They still look horrid for 5 on 5 hockey, never clear the net, have nobody that can stand around the other teams net. There is no fight, desperation or urgency. Detroit had so many chances late game/OT. Over a course of a series that stuff will get you in trouble. If Crosby doesn't skate through 4 guys or someone lasers a shot, the Pens don't get scoring chances.

Payerl - Vitale - Megna could be the 4th line right now. SPEED SPEED SPEED, and more talent than Adams/Glass/Pyatt ever had. You do not win cups with 3 old vets on the 4th line. You win cups with hungry, young players that need to prove it. You want Fringe grinder players on the roster? Okay, give me the younger guys that are still trying to make the NHL, not the has-beens. 5'7 Gibbons shouldn't even be playing over some of these guys.

It's okay everything is okay in Penguin land:
-Crosby got art ross/100 points
-Bylsma has his regular season wins
-Letang is back!! Because that's just what we needed! More offense, another guy who gets rattled easily, and is never disciplined by the coach for making mistakes!

Everything is pointing to this team being a complete playoff failure. I don't know how some of you guys aren't seeing it.

Put Bergeron on Crosby, Chara's going to bump him in the mouth, Crosby will cry to the Refs, and the season will be over again.

Great Job Dan/Rayjean. Both needed to be F'n canned.


By your own admission, you've watched 5 games all year. They've played 80. How do you have any idea how they play? Why should anyone care about an opinion formed by watching 7% of games played?


He must watch the highlights.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Nizzy on Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:15 pm

I watched a bunch of games in the past month

St. Louis L
Phoenix L
Chicago W
Columbus W
Winnipeg W (my gosh, after this win, pittsburgh media almost crowned the pens the stanley cup champs, it was hilarious)
Avalanche W
Detroit W

This doesn't include losses to Los Angeles, Carolina (lol?), Minnesota 0-4.

I don't need 82 games to assess this team. Why? Because it's the same Bylsma junk from the past 4 seasons where I barely missed any games.

Hey guys, stop responding to my posts criticizing me. Start commenting on what I'm saying, because Bylsma is the biggest problem here. Just admit it and move on, stop deflecting the conversation. I've watched enough hockey to know a bad team when I see it. They are going to get embarrassed once again.

From the past month from the games I've seen, I've noticed this team has no net presence and cannot clear the net to save someone's life. That's not a successful playoff team.

Keep making comments that are directed at me, and not the Pens. Like that guy who had 50% of his posts in NON-PENS RELATED, saying I don't know anything about hockey. Okay bud. I knew this team would fail before game 1, and it's going to happen. Go check my post history from the off season. Yes, I only seen about 10 games so far this year... guess what? Jokes on you for wasting your time on the "scam" of the current Pittsburgh Penguins. :thumb:
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Nizzy on Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:19 pm

Just go watch the 2009 playoff DVD. The team has simply not looked as good since, and at multiple times they've had just as much talent if not more. Bylsma makes me so sick, his stupid systems don't work in this league. You want this Puck Moving team? However you don't want a skilled team? But you want to be puck moving, north south/stretch passes, but for 4 years it was dump and chase? You don't want skilled players, but half the roster is world class talent with a ton of Olympic players? It's like everything Bylsma/Shero are doing has contradicted itself. Really what is the team identity?

Win a cup with a solid defensive pairing of Hal Gill/Robert Scuderi to replace it the year after with Goligoski/Leopold to fit Bylsma's style of play. Failures ever since. It seems pretty logical to me what the problems are.

Adams 8+ minutes of 5v5 hockey last night.

Seriously how can these 2 still have a job after the Pens are eliminated from the playoffs in a month?
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby westside on Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:35 pm

Awesome ... Just awesome
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Grunthy on Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:40 pm

Most of my posts are in nhr bc of know nothing posters driving me away... :pop:
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Jesse on Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:37 am

Nizzy wrote:The team has simply not looked as good since, and at multiple times they've had just as much talent if not more.


They made it to the ECF last year and were one of four teams playing at the end of the season. That definitely sucks, and is the trademark of a team that doesn't look good.

Nizzy wrote:Bylsma makes me so sick, his stupid systems don't work in this league.


If they didn't work, the team wouldn't win. So you're wrong. I'm half tempted to ask you, mainly because I don't think you can answer, what is the Penguins system? Care to elaborate on their defensive zone and neutral zone set-ups?

Nizzy wrote:You want this Puck Moving team? However you don't want a skilled team? But you want to be puck moving, north south/stretch passes, but for 4 years it was dump and chase? You don't want skilled players, but half the roster is world class talent with a ton of Olympic players? It's like everything Bylsma/Shero are doing has contradicted itself. Really what is the team identity?


Nothing in this paragraph makes much sense to me. Do you think the Penguins are the only team in the league that dump the puck into the zone? Do you realize that every single NHL team, especially on the road, relies on dump and chase at some point or another? I don't even understand what your point is here.

Nizzy wrote:Win a cup with a solid defensive pairing of Hal Gill/Robert Scuderi to replace it the year after with Goligoski/Leopold to fit Bylsma's style of play. Failures ever since. It seems pretty logical to me what the problems are.


Have you watched Rob Scuderi? He's been awful this year. Hal Gill is a shell of his former self and completely nosedived after we let him go. Gogo fetched us Matt Niskanen AND James Neal, so complaining about him getting ice time here is just completely moronic to me.

Look, everybody gets it man. You've watched 8 games this year and you hate Dan Bylsma. Trust me, we all understand that your expectation is Cup or Bust at every single opportunity. If the Penguins went to the SCF this year and lost in seven games to the Blues, you'd be right in here beating your Dan Bylsma drum, talking systems as if you were able to discuss them with any semblance of validity.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby meow on Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:41 am

We should have a systems discussion thread. It would be a beautiful combination of well constructed posts and diarrhea of the keyboard.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby slappybrown on Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:42 am

Jesse wrote:
Nizzy wrote:The team has simply not looked as good since, and at multiple times they've had just as much talent if not more.


They made it to the ECF last year and were one of four teams playing at the end of the season. That definitely sucks, and is the trademark of a team that doesn't look good.

Nizzy wrote:Bylsma makes me so sick, his stupid systems don't work in this league.


If they didn't work, the team wouldn't win. So you're wrong. I'm half tempted to ask you, mainly because I don't think you can answer, what is the Penguins system? Care to elaborate on their defensive zone and neutral zone set-ups?

Nizzy wrote:You want this Puck Moving team? However you don't want a skilled team? But you want to be puck moving, north south/stretch passes, but for 4 years it was dump and chase? You don't want skilled players, but half the roster is world class talent with a ton of Olympic players? It's like everything Bylsma/Shero are doing has contradicted itself. Really what is the team identity?


Nothing in this paragraph makes much sense to me. Do you think the Penguins are the only team in the league that dump the puck into the zone? Do you realize that every single NHL team, especially on the road, relies on dump and chase at some point or another? I don't even understand what your point is here.

Nizzy wrote:Win a cup with a solid defensive pairing of Hal Gill/Robert Scuderi to replace it the year after with Goligoski/Leopold to fit Bylsma's style of play. Failures ever since. It seems pretty logical to me what the problems are.


Have you watched Rob Scuderi? He's been awful this year. Hal Gill is a shell of his former self and completely nosedived after we let him go. Gogo fetched us Matt Niskanen AND James Neal, so complaining about him getting ice time here is just completely moronic to me.

Look, everybody gets it man. You've watched 8 games this year and you hate Dan Bylsma. Trust me, we all understand that your expectation is Cup or Bust at every single opportunity. If the Penguins went to the SCF this year and lost in seven games to the Blues, you'd be right in here beating your Dan Bylsma drum, talking systems as if you were able to discuss them with any semblance of validity.

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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby Gaucho on Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:47 am

Very enjoyable.
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Re: The Anatomy of an Undisciplined, Poorly Coached Hockey T

Postby sil on Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:57 am

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