Spaling Signed

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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Penspal on Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:49 am

Here is what I will take from this thread.

Chirpin Grinder has definitely made the point that it is his opinion and perhaps his prediction that Spaling will not work out in Pittsburgh that well. I respect that, we all have our opinions and he points to some stats in an attempt to support his claim (more than most LGP'ers). And to anyone who says that they have not messed with CG in this thread, you are delusional. Peeps are as much "trolling him" as he is trolling anyone else. However, I'm sure CG can ignore the LGP jabs....

I'm in the camp where I'd like to see how Spaling fits into a Pittsburgh system, with hopefully better line mates, and playing against weaker guys (Pens 3rd line rather then Preds 2nd'ish with occasional match-ups against opponents 3-4 dmen).

2.2 M may be a slight overpay, but it does not sink the boat for sure, especially before the season is even in sight.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Digitalgypsy66 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:11 am

Six pages on this scrub? Yikes. :lol:
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby GeoTank on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:29 am

Penspal wrote:Here is what I will take from this thread.

Chirpin Grinder has definitely made the point that it is his opinion and perhaps his prediction that Spaling will not work out in Pittsburgh that well. I respect that, we all have our opinions and he points to some stats in an attempt to support his claim (more than most LGP'ers). And to anyone who says that they have not messed with CG in this thread, you are delusional. Peeps are as much "trolling him" as he is trolling anyone else. However, I'm sure CG can ignore the LGP jabs....

I'm in the camp where I'd like to see how Spaling fits into a Pittsburgh system, with hopefully better line mates, and playing against weaker guys (Pens 3rd line rather then Preds 2nd'ish with occasional match-ups against opponents 3-4 dmen).

2.2 M may be a slight overpay, but it does not sink the boat for sure, especially before the season is even in sight.



Slightly wrong, CG has made it known, for a FACT that Spaling is everything this team does NOT need, he fills no holes on this team and is eating up valuable cap space when we could have CLEARLY signed players who would cost HALF as much and do everything Spaling will NEVER do....

I am also in your camp and will wait and see what he can do, but you will see we are WRONG and know NOTHING...... end troll

:)
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby GeoTank on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:29 am

Digitalgypsy66 wrote:Six pages on this scrub? Yikes. :lol:


you mean Spaling right? not.... ??
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby shmenguin on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:38 am

Mr. Colby wrote:People have recently been treating advanced stats like gospel and are completely ignoring variables affecting those stats like the team you play on, the players you play with, the players you match up against, etc.

So Spaling was below 50% on Nashville... uh oh


the stats are showing his performance relative to other nashville players, including ones who would share the same context as him. they aren't gospel, but they do tell somewhat of a story.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:40 am

Mr. Colby wrote:People have recently been treating advanced stats like gospel and are completely ignoring variables affecting those stats like the team you play on, the players you play with, the players you match up against, etc.

So Spaling was below 50% on Nashville... uh oh


Advanced stats account for all of those things.

"The team you play on" -- By looking at his relative numbers, you can see that on a subpar possession team, Spaling was even worse at driving possession relative to his teammates.

"The players you play with" -- Quality of teammates is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

"The players you match up against" -- Quality of competition is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

Applying all of those factors indicate that Spaling was a possession negative on a bad team relative to his teammates. Maybe he'll do better, and I hope he does. He's an upgrade on what we had in the bottom six for sure.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby meow on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:44 am

slappybrown wrote:He's an upgrade on what we had in the bottom six for sure.

End of discussion.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Rocco on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:48 am

Digitalgypsy66 wrote:Six pages on this scrub? Yikes. :lol:


The future of the franchise hinges on Spaling.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:56 am

Digitalgypsy66 wrote:Six pages on this scrub? Yikes. :lol:

Is 6 pages a lot to you? Seems about right when a Crosby thread goes hundreds.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy on Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:19 am

If Spalding has a bad season we move to KC.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby sil on Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:21 am

He's stating the fact that his opinion is that Spaling will be an utter failure here. Where everything goes off the rails is when people (in varying degrees and styles) disagree with him. He's a one-man army for that bold opinion of his.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby tfrizz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:31 am

slappybrown wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:People have recently been treating advanced stats like gospel and are completely ignoring variables affecting those stats like the team you play on, the players you play with, the players you match up against, etc.

So Spaling was below 50% on Nashville... uh oh


Advanced stats account for all of those things.

"The team you play on" -- By looking at his relative numbers, you can see that on a subpar possession team, Spaling was even worse at driving possession relative to his teammates.

"The players you play with" -- Quality of teammates is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

"The players you match up against" -- Quality of competition is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

Applying all of those factors indicate that Spaling was a possession negative on a bad team relative to his teammates. Maybe he'll do better, and I hope he does. He's an upgrade on what we had in the bottom six for sure.


Here's an interesting point, though: Spaling's possession numbers last season, both CF% and FF%, were better than Sutter's. They were also better than Stempniak's (w/ the Pens) and Megna's - two players that have been listed as more desirable than Spaling.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:35 am

Looking at advanced stats for a checking line guy on a defense first offense never team is pretty pointless. Especially stats that look at shots for/against.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Mr. Colby on Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:03 am

Idoit40fans wrote:Looking at advanced stats for a checking line guy on a defense first offense never team is pretty pointless. Especially stats that look at shots for/against.


I can not hammer this point home enough.

Advanced stats are great but they're ruining everybody's perception of hockey players.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby NashvilleCat on Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:38 am

Idoit40fans wrote:
Digitalgypsy66 wrote:Six pages on this scrub? Yikes. :lol:

Is 6 pages a lot to you? Seems about right when a Crosby thread goes hundreds.

Is there an advanced stat for that? :lol:
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby The U on Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:39 am

I like advanced stats but they are quickly becoming the very first (and sometimes only) thing pointed out in player evaluation (by some).

This Free Agency season was the first time it really went overboard I think.

Player X was a great addition because ______ (insert advanced stat here)

Player Z was terrible value for the Rangers at 2.5 million because Player Q signed with Colorado for 2.0 million and his _____ (insert advances stat here) was much better.

Advanced stats have existed in baseball, basketball, football, etc...for a long time. Those other sports use these stats for evaluation as well but maybe because it's relatively new in hockey people are falling head over heels in love and going a bit overboard. Advanced stats are not the first thing mentioned when baseball players are signed/traded for. For the advanced stat hockey crowd it seems as if it would be the ONLY thing discussed. Studying film and watching players play the game is still the best way to judge a player. The blogs, websites, tweets, etc.. out there are leaning so far the other direction it's becoming silly. They always include the "these stats only tell 1/2 the story and are used to augment what your eyes are seeing" disclaimer but in reality I'm not sure they really believe that. Some of them seem to think the advanced stats are the only factor.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:45 am

Same thing earlier when people talked about David Moss being a good addition because of these numbers. Moss was quite literally the worst Phoenix Coyote last season by a clear margin for anyone that saw them play. He even signed in Europe before the Coyotes, much to the chagrin of their fanbase, took him back (it was literally the exact same reaction that would happen if Adams was a UFA this summer and we re-signed him for another year)...you can't just depend on these underlying metrics...if you want to combine it with the eye test, that's one thing...if you feel it augments what you see, sure, understandable. But to go and sort by "possession" or what have you is just preposterous...especially when you're talking about bit players like this...
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:17 pm

tfrizz wrote:
slappybrown wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:People have recently been treating advanced stats like gospel and are completely ignoring variables affecting those stats like the team you play on, the players you play with, the players you match up against, etc.

So Spaling was below 50% on Nashville... uh oh


Advanced stats account for all of those things.

"The team you play on" -- By looking at his relative numbers, you can see that on a subpar possession team, Spaling was even worse at driving possession relative to his teammates.

"The players you play with" -- Quality of teammates is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

"The players you match up against" -- Quality of competition is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

Applying all of those factors indicate that Spaling was a possession negative on a bad team relative to his teammates. Maybe he'll do better, and I hope he does. He's an upgrade on what we had in the bottom six for sure.


Here's an interesting point, though: Spaling's possession numbers last season, both CF% and FF%, were better than Sutter's. They were also better than Stempniak's (w/ the Pens) and Megna's - two players that have been listed as more desirable than Spaling.

Very interesting point, nice find. QoC differences (I haven't looked)?
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby tfrizz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:20 pm

slappybrown wrote:
tfrizz wrote:
slappybrown wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:People have recently been treating advanced stats like gospel and are completely ignoring variables affecting those stats like the team you play on, the players you play with, the players you match up against, etc.

So Spaling was below 50% on Nashville... uh oh


Advanced stats account for all of those things.

"The team you play on" -- By looking at his relative numbers, you can see that on a subpar possession team, Spaling was even worse at driving possession relative to his teammates.

"The players you play with" -- Quality of teammates is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

"The players you match up against" -- Quality of competition is readily available in multiple different ways, and is very much accounted for.

Applying all of those factors indicate that Spaling was a possession negative on a bad team relative to his teammates. Maybe he'll do better, and I hope he does. He's an upgrade on what we had in the bottom six for sure.


Here's an interesting point, though: Spaling's possession numbers last season, both CF% and FF%, were better than Sutter's. They were also better than Stempniak's (w/ the Pens) and Megna's - two players that have been listed as more desirable than Spaling.

Very interesting point, nice find. QoC differences (I haven't looked)?


Spaling's Corsi QOC was 1.357 and Rel QOC was 0.857; Sutter's were 0.027 and 0.145.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:22 pm

The U wrote:I like advanced stats but they are quickly becoming the very first (and sometimes only) thing pointed out in player evaluation (by some).

This Free Agency season was the first time it really went overboard I think.

Player X was a great addition because ______ (insert advanced stat here)

Player Z was terrible value for the Rangers at 2.5 million because Player Q signed with Colorado for 2.0 million and his _____ (insert advances stat here) was much better.

Advanced stats have existed in baseball, basketball, football, etc...for a long time. Those other sports use these stats for evaluation as well but maybe because it's relatively new in hockey people are falling head over heels in love and going a bit overboard. Advanced stats are not the first thing mentioned when baseball players are signed/traded for. For the advanced stat hockey crowd it seems as if it would be the ONLY thing discussed. Studying film and watching players play the game is still the best way to judge a player. The blogs, websites, tweets, etc.. out there are leaning so far the other direction it's becoming silly. They always include the "these stats only tell 1/2 the story and are used to augment what your eyes are seeing" disclaimer but in reality I'm not sure they really believe that. Some of them seem to think the advanced stats are the only factor.

No one who is serious thinks this way. I think you're railing against an imaginary person for the most part.

Its a lot easier to have a discussion about a larger group of players for 95% of fans because advanced stats promote a deeper understanding of what happens in the NHL, just like spending years watching or playing the game does. That's all. Its not one or the other, its both.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Penspal on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:24 pm

I like advanced stats. In my opinion, they are far from meaningless and they continue to evolve. However, there are soo many factors that are not included in advanced stats. I'm not knocking them and I'm sure we've got 3-4 threads on it already, but off the top of my head, there are other factors that are not (and maybe can never be included)

- playing with injury
- playing with rust (1st game back from injury)
- playing 3rd game in 4 nights (expect a worse performance)
- systems matchup
- quality of referee calls
- coaching decisions (ie. Putting out your best Faceoff guy 65% who ALWAYS loses to a certain scrub for whatever reason)
- use of set plays (success or failure)
- wearing yellow jerseys (ie Nashville)
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Hugo Stiglitz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:44 pm

I don't know about anyone else but the phrase "advanced stats" is really growing tired
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:49 pm

Underlying metrics would be a better term, I think.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby offsides on Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:54 pm

Whatever they are called, I'm just stuck in the old school stuff. Guess the new math is just way over my head. Then again I don't like tattoos either. Are they listed in advanced stats?
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Mr. Colby on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:15 pm

mikey287 wrote:Same thing earlier when people talked about David Moss being a good addition because of these numbers. Moss was quite literally the worst Phoenix Coyote last season by a clear margin for anyone that saw them play. He even signed in Europe before the Coyotes, much to the chagrin of their fanbase, took him back (it was literally the exact same reaction that would happen if Adams was a UFA this summer and we re-signed him for another year)...you can't just depend on these underlying metrics...if you want to combine it with the eye test, that's one thing...if you feel it augments what you see, sure, understandable. But to go and sort by "possession" or what have you is just preposterous...especially when you're talking about bit players like this...


I love this post so freaking much I can't even begin to explain
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