Spaling Signed

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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Mr. Colby on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:22 pm

It's not even about the old school stuff... I don't need a friggin stat to tell me which players have the puck more or attempt more shots while they're out on the ice. I am watching the game.

The problem is these Rossi's and Yohe's and guys that run the 17 new penguins blogs don't know what they're watching so they need to base their opinions on these numbers and use them as much as possible to act smart.

I think the best use of underlying metrics in hockey (and other sports like baseball) is to find trends in those numbers over the course of a long period of time and use them as a flag, almost a reason to focus more on that player to verify if those numbers hold meaning. What Nick Spaling's relative possession percentages were on a low scoring non-playoff team in 2013-14 tell me absolutely nothing.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:23 pm

mikey287 wrote:Same thing earlier when people talked about David Moss being a good addition because of these numbers. Moss was quite literally the worst Phoenix Coyote last season by a clear margin for anyone that saw them play. He even signed in Europe before the Coyotes, much to the chagrin of their fanbase, took him back (it was literally the exact same reaction that would happen if Adams was a UFA this summer and we re-signed him for another year)...you can't just depend on these underlying metrics...if you want to combine it with the eye test, that's one thing...if you feel it augments what you see, sure, understandable. But to go and sort by "possession" or what have you is just preposterous...especially when you're talking about bit players like this...

I guess my experience departs in terms of what I've seen from PHX fans and writers. E.g.:

So where does that leave us in evaluating Dave Moss? He's an above average possession player who is a useful penalty killer (something this team certainly needs) that can't really be counted on to produce anywhere near a consistent basis. He's stayed healthy in a Coyote uniform, missing only six games in two years and he can play in all situations. He's an above average 4th line player and a middle-of-the-road third line guy at this stage of his career. If the Coyotes could get him to sign for less than his last contract, and given his production during this one it should be possible, he's a worthy re- signing candidate. If he won't sign for less than $2 million, the Coyotes won't be that much worse for wear.


http://www.fiveforhowling.com/2014/5/1/ ... david-moss

I'd be fine with Moss as a fourth liner on the Pens in a theoretical world. I have no recollection of seeing him play a minute in my life, but I'd bet -- based solely on these metrics, which give me information on a player I otherwise know nothing about -- that he's very unlikely to be a negative player who hurts you, unlike the guys who were on our 4th line last year. He lacks the ability to produce goals or assists, but seems competent defensively. In other words, a good version of Craig Adams. At 800k per, looks like a good deal to me for your 4th line.

Why is that all so scary to some people?
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:28 pm

It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby SpinnerSpencer on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:33 pm

Dallas Stars GM vs. the reliability of NHL stats

There isn’t much common ground between those at the forefront of the analytics movement and those who bemoan their value, outside of a mutual disrespect. But they’ve always agreed on one aspect of advanced stats in the NHL, which is that the data produced is only going to be as good as the data analyzed.

Hockey is a subjective sport, from the League determining supplemental discipline to referees defining penalties to official scorers defining what constitutes a shot.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck- ... 47183.html
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:34 pm

mikey287 wrote:It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.


So help me understand what information is poorly reflected in that conclusion, which is drawn from the metrics?

Out of curiosity, both in a vacuum and specifically on the Pens, would you rather David Moss or Adams/Glass?
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:35 pm

SpinnerSpencer wrote:Dallas Stars GM vs. the reliability of NHL stats

There isn’t much common ground between those at the forefront of the analytics movement and those who bemoan their value, outside of a mutual disrespect. But they’ve always agreed on one aspect of advanced stats in the NHL, which is that the data produced is only going to be as good as the data analyzed.

Hockey is a subjective sport, from the League determining supplemental discipline to referees defining penalties to official scorers defining what constitutes a shot.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck- ... 47183.html

No doubt. Adopting the camera technologies they've borrowed from the NBA will improve the reliability.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:42 pm

are we going to sign Moss or something?
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:43 pm

No, just talking about hockey because it is fun and I like to learn things.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Dr Rosenrosen on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:44 pm

mikey287 wrote:It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.

I'd like to point out that ass cancer is one of the more treatable types.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:47 pm

Dr Rosenrosen wrote:
mikey287 wrote:It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.

I'd like to point out that ass cancer is one of the more treatable types.

lol the good doctor
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:49 pm

slappybrown wrote:
mikey287 wrote:It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.


So help me understand what information is poorly reflected in that conclusion, which is drawn from the metrics?

Out of curiosity, both in a vacuum and specifically on the Pens, would you rather David Moss or Adams/Glass?


The point to understand is, don't draw conclusions exclusively from metrics.

Of the Moss/Glass/Adams contingent, I would rather have Tanner Glass from the group, quite easily.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby slappybrown on Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:58 pm

mikey287 wrote:
slappybrown wrote:
mikey287 wrote:It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.


So help me understand what information is poorly reflected in that conclusion, which is drawn from the metrics?

Out of curiosity, both in a vacuum and specifically on the Pens, would you rather David Moss or Adams/Glass?


The point to understand is, don't draw conclusions exclusively from metrics.

Of the Moss/Glass/Adams contingent, I would rather have Tanner Glass from the group, quite easily.

We agree more than the other thinks.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Jim on Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:02 pm

Hugo Stiglitz wrote:
Jim wrote:I am wondering if Spaling will out perform Kulemin...


Kulemin will likely out-perform Spaling simply for the fact he'll be playing a prominent role in NY, plus he'll be playing with a quality center.

They're also very different players, so it's not something you can compare straight up.


That is kid of why I went with "out perform" and not "out score" or such. I was thinking in more general terms.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:08 pm

slappybrown wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
slappybrown wrote:
mikey287 wrote:It starts with "above average possession player" so now you have to fulfill that prophecy or else it won't be consistent with the rest of the work that is based off of it...you see the word "possession player" and immediately a red flag should go up...no one is scared, it's just that there's going to be instances where this information is not congruent with the game itself or the evaluation of a player himself...

Here's what Coyotes fans thought: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... david+moss

The use of the phrase "ass cancer" to describe the signing is apt.


So help me understand what information is poorly reflected in that conclusion, which is drawn from the metrics?

Out of curiosity, both in a vacuum and specifically on the Pens, would you rather David Moss or Adams/Glass?


The point to understand is, don't draw conclusions exclusively from metrics.

Of the Moss/Glass/Adams contingent, I would rather have Tanner Glass from the group, quite easily.

We agree more than the other thinks.


I think so too. I'm a little more entrenched in "old school" because I strongly trust my ability to read talent. Others might not feel that way, so they lean further the other way, which is fine. I don't think more information is bad. I just am concerned about, mostly, "leading" with statistics to make a conclusion, as opposed to using them to "back" an opinion...

There's a reason why the people who saw David Moss, for example, even semi-regularly, cringe at that thought of that lifeless corpse remaining in the NHL and while there was a more benevolent stand taken when led by the individual who started his thought with "possession player" - I'm sure the "next" guy on the Coyotes had a good season and good underlying metrics...
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Hugo Stiglitz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:32 pm

mikey287 wrote:Underlying metrics would be a better term, I think.


I just hate arguing stats in general. While I know I've used them to leverage my side in discussions, they're really such an arbitrary thing to focus on because too many times we hear things like:

"Stats don't tell the whole story"
"The stats don't lie"

It's just a matter of when stats hurt or support your (not you personally) argument that we decide to say they're useful or argue their fallacy.

The truth is when it comes to things like this I believe what we see is the truth. I, along with many others, have seen plenty of players who's stats are poor defensively but we know they're NOT bad defensively because we actually watch and the same goes for offense numbers.

I think the only true valid stat that can be analyzed is Faceoff %
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby GeoTank on Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:43 pm

even Faceoff % can be misleading. Your plan, your D and Wings and play huge parts in you winning the faceoff.

I saw a bunch where Crosby pulled it back but the opposing wing plowed through our wing and "won" the faceoff. it's such a team sport a lot of the individual stats are co dependent on your teamates, it's one of the reasons i love watching, playing and coaching.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Hugo Stiglitz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:49 pm

GeoTank wrote:even Faceoff % can be misleading. Your plan, your D and Wings and play huge parts in you winning the faceoff.

I saw a bunch where Crosby pulled it back but the opposing wing plowed through our wing and "won" the faceoff. it's such a team sport a lot of the individual stats are co dependent on your teamates, it's one of the reasons i love watching, playing and coaching.


All stats are misleading, but I think that's the most accurate of the bunch. Almost the way in baseball that they use pitchers at different times in the game is the way you can use that stat to your advantage. What side they're better on, which zone and yes, which players help you out.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby shmenguin on Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:03 pm

Hugo Stiglitz wrote:All stats are misleading


you wanna stand by that one?
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:29 pm

It wouldn't be hard to come up with an example of any given stat being misleading.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Hugo Stiglitz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:46 pm

shmenguin wrote:
Hugo Stiglitz wrote:All stats are misleading


you wanna stand by that one?


I'll re-phrase.

All stats in some way or another can be manipulated to defend or refute an argument.

EDIT:

We can argue Spaling's possession numbers and say they're poor even relative to the other players on Nashville, but can argue how he was used.
We can argue his salary relative to other centers who put up the same points and other players who produce more and make less.

These arguments can go back and forth as they have, but this fact remains:

Spaling-Sutter-Downie is VASTLY improved over Sutter with Glass, Vitale, Pyatt and Kobaew being rotated.

The Penguins will be starting the season with a much better 3rd line.
Last edited by Hugo Stiglitz on Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby meow on Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:04 pm

Idoit40fans wrote:It wouldn't be hard to come up with an example of any given stat being misleading.

I'll bite. Goals.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby shmenguin on Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:08 pm

Hugo Stiglitz wrote:
shmenguin wrote:
Hugo Stiglitz wrote:All stats are misleading


you wanna stand by that one?


I'll re-phrase.

All stats in some way or another can be manipulated to defend or refute an argument.



that's an improvement
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:13 pm

meow wrote:
Idoit40fans wrote:It wouldn't be hard to come up with an example of any given stat being misleading.

I'll bite. Goals.


Dan Carcillo. Phoenix.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby mikey287 on Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:20 pm

Mike Gartner, career.
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Re: Spaling Signed

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:21 pm

mikey287 wrote:Mike Gartner, career.


That resulted in a legitimate "lol".
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