Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

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Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:45 pm

As of today, the Penguins have played 35 games, and have 37 points. With 47 games remaining, at their current pace of winning just over 50% of their games, they will not qualify for the playoffs. Last year, 95 points was the final wild card spot in the East, 94 points in the West. 15-16, it was 96 points in the East, and 87 in the West. The Penguins are going to need somewhere between 95-100 points to make sure they can qualify for the playoffs. A simple way to do this is break the remainder of the season (including Monday's loss) into 8 game segments. Including Monday's loss to Colorado, there are six 8-game segments left in the season:

Segment 1: COL, CBJ, ANA, CBJ, CAR, DET, PHI, CAR - segment ends January 4th
Segment 2: NYI, BOS, DET, NYR, ANA, LA, SJ, CAR - segment ends January 23rd
Segment 3: MIN, SJ, WSH, NJ, VGK, DAL, STL, OTT - segment ends February 13th
Segment 4: LA, TOR, CBJ, CAR, FL, NJ, BOS, NYI - segment ends March 3rd
Segment 5: CGY, PHI, TOR, DAL, NYR, MTL, NYI, MTL - segment ends March 21st
Segment 6: NJ, PHI, DET, NJ, MTL, WSH, CBJ, OTT - segment ends April 6th

Winning 5 out of 8 games in each segment gives them 10 out of a possible 16 points each segment. 10 points times 6 segements gives them 60 more points, giving them 97 on the season which SHOULD get them into the playoffs. Fail to get the 10 points in a segment, need to hope they get hot and make it up in the next segment. Go 2-3 segments straight without making the necessary points, chances of making the playoffs become slimmer and slimmer.

I intend to keep updating this thread as each game passes.
========================================================================
SEGMENT 1 - Colorado (Loss), Columbus (WIN/OT), Anaheim (Loss), Columbus (WIN/OT/Shootout), CAR (Loss), DET (Loss), PHI(WIN), CAR(Loss)
Penguins finish the segment 3-5, with 6 points earned, instead of the 5-3 record and 10 points they needed.
========================================================================
SEGMENT 2 - NYI (WIN), BOS (WIN/OT), DET (WIN), NYR (WIN), ANA (Loss), LA (WIN), SJ (Loss), CAR (WIN)
Penguins finish the segment 6-2, with 12 points earned. They have earned 18 points out of needed 20 points over the 2 segments.
========================================================================
SEGMENT 3 - Minnesota (WIN), SJ (WIN), WSH (WIN), NJ (Loss),VGK (WIN), DAL (OT LOSS), STL (WIN), OTT (WIN)
Penguins finish the segment 6-1-1, with 13 points earned. They have now earned 31 points out of the estimated 30 points needed through 3 segments.
========================================================================
SEGMENT 4 - LAK (WIN), TOR (WIN), CBJ (WIN), CAR (WIN), FLA (Loss), NJ (Loss), BOS (Loss), NYI (WIN)
Penguins finish the segment 5-3, with 10 points earned. They have now earned 41 points out of the estimated 40 points needed through 4 segments.
========================================================================
SEGMENT 5 - CGY (WIN), PHI (WIN), TOR (Loss), DAL (WIN), NYR (OT Loss), MTL (WIN), NYI (Loss), MTL (WIN)
Penguins finish the segment 5-2-1 with 11 points earned. They now have 52 points out of the estimated 50 points needed through 5 segments.
========================================================================
SEGEMENT 6- NJ (OT Loss), PHI (WIN), DET (Loss), NJ (WIN), MTL (WIN)
Penguins have earned 7 out of 16 possible points in this segment. 6 points remain available to be earned.
Last edited by FLPensFan on Sat Mar 31, 2018 10:18 pm, edited 39 times in total.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Crashguy66 on Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:04 pm

This is quite disturbing. As if my holiday wasn't ruined enough. :)
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby OKpensfan247 on Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:01 pm

Great stuff FLPF. Thx.

It is amazing how razor thin our wiggle room is the rest of the way unless we can pull off a couple long win streaks.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Pitts on Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:08 pm

Never give up hope!

Trades will be made, young guys will be called up, Sid will get his Christmas rest and sparks will be ignited! Onward and upward!
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Big Easy Pens Fan on Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:11 am

Let's hope we don't have to win the last game of the season to qualify for the playoffs like we did a few years back vs the Sabres. :face: That was a "no fun" scenario. However we did prevail.

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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Lesky on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:44 am

Well.

Look at it, this is what it takes for the Pens to win the cup:

1. Pass 2 metro teams in the standings
2. Beat Tampa Bay in 1st round
3. Beat Washington in the 2nd round
4. Beat Toronto in the conference finals
5. Beat western team in cup finals

I would say we have one in a billion chance to make all that happen.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby penny lane on Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:24 am

New Year's eve, 2015- Pens v Det, Mike Sullivan said this comeback win started their cup run!
Fingers crossed they get the sniff of championship soon.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:03 pm

Thread updated.... check the 1st post for updates.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:33 pm

Thread updated.....even though the game isn't over. I'll take my chances with 22 seconds left.....
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:29 am

Lesky wrote:Well.

Look at it, this is what it takes for the Pens to win the cup:

1. Pass 2 metro teams in the standings
2. Beat Tampa Bay in 1st round
3. Beat Washington in the 2nd round
4. Beat Toronto in the conference finals
5. Beat western team in cup finals

I would say we have one in a billion chance to make all that happen.

Not even. If the Pens were the 8th Seed (2nd Wild Card) they would face the Lightning in the first round. But, if they were to win (ha ha), they’d stay in the Atlantic seeding. Toronto, not the Caps as most likely opponent. Couldn’t face a Metro team until the Conference Finals. Probably a tougher draw than last season.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Steve Dave on Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:06 am

So TBL, TOR and NJD?
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:19 pm

Thread updated......
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby thehockeyguru on Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:19 am

When was the last 3 game win streak? End of Nov into Dec? Seems like the Pens are primed for one.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:16 pm

Thread updated.....Penguins need to win their next 3 games to earn the needed points in Segment 1.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Big Easy Pens Fan on Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:05 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated.....Penguins need to win their next 3 games to earn the needed points in Segment 1.


I was wondering how long before I had to use this emoji here. :face: Pens better get on their horses, otherwise it will be history sooner rather than later. :cry:

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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby eddiefromirwin on Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:32 pm

Great58 wrote:
Lesky wrote:Well.

Look at it, this is what it takes for the Pens to win the cup:

1. Pass 2 metro teams in the standings
2. Beat Tampa Bay in 1st round
3. Beat Washington in the 2nd round
4. Beat Toronto in the conference finals
5. Beat western team in cup finals

I would say we have one in a billion chance to make all that happen.

Not even. If the Pens were the 8th Seed (2nd Wild Card) they would face the Lightning in the first round. But, if they were to win (ha ha), they’d stay in the Atlantic seeding. Toronto, not the Caps as most likely opponent. Couldn’t face a Metro team until the Conference Finals. Probably a tougher draw than last season.


Not sure Tampa would regard it as some great reward for finishing first in the conference to face the two-time defending champs.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:51 pm

Thread updated.....Penguins will fail to earn enough points in Segment 1. Best they can do is beat PHI and CAR, and earn 8 out of the 10 points needed. Which is 8 out of 16 total points for the segment. .500 hockey isn't going to elevate them into a playoff position.

I'm not sure what Rutherford is waiting for.........the playoffs are getting farther away with each passing week.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby pens_CT on Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:51 am

FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated.....Penguins will fail to earn enough points in Segment 1. Best they can do is beat PHI and CAR, and earn 8 out of the 10 points needed. Which is 8 out of 16 total points for the segment. .500 hockey isn't going to elevate them into a playoff position.

I'm not sure what Rutherford is waiting for.........the playoffs are getting farther away with each passing week.


I think it comes down to the fact he doesn’t want to move the assets that would bring back a significant return. The assets he wants to move will not bring back players who will make a difference in turning this team around. I don’t think it’s much more complicated.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:52 am

pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated.....Penguins will fail to earn enough points in Segment 1. Best they can do is beat PHI and CAR, and earn 8 out of the 10 points needed. Which is 8 out of 16 total points for the segment. .500 hockey isn't going to elevate them into a playoff position.

I'm not sure what Rutherford is waiting for.........the playoffs are getting farther away with each passing week.


I think it comes down to the fact he doesn’t want to move the assets that would bring back a significant return. The assets he wants to move will not bring back players who will make a difference in turning this team around. I don’t think it’s much more complicated.

He doesn't even need significant return at this point. He needs to add a quality 3C and a top 9 LW. Doesn't need to be huge deal on the level of a Pacioretty or Brassard, but I do believe he could move Cole, a pick, and a prospect start getting some of those pieces. Not saying this is the greatest trade, but I keep going back to Pouliot and Reinhart as an example. Not saying that has to be the deal, but, that deal isn't over the top, but also shouldn't cost a ton. Pouliot is a cheap rental. Cole, a 2nd, and any pick of prospects not Sprong or Jarry, and I think, in theory, it could get done. Pushing Hagelin and Sheahan down to the 4th line should in theory should greatly help, as would Sullivan having permission to sit Reaves on certain nights, at least until the team can right itself.

I didn't really expect this team to 3-peat, but I don't think anyone expected them to miss the playoffs. I also don't think it is acceptable to ownership to miss the playoffs with the talent this team has.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby pens_CT on Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:05 am

FLPensFan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated.....Penguins will fail to earn enough points in Segment 1. Best they can do is beat PHI and CAR, and earn 8 out of the 10 points needed. Which is 8 out of 16 total points for the segment. .500 hockey isn't going to elevate them into a playoff position.

I'm not sure what Rutherford is waiting for.........the playoffs are getting farther away with each passing week.


I think it comes down to the fact he doesn’t want to move the assets that would bring back a significant return. The assets he wants to move will not bring back players who will make a difference in turning this team around. I don’t think it’s much more complicated.

He doesn't even need significant return at this point. He needs to add a quality 3C and a top 9 LW. Doesn't need to be huge deal on the level of a Pacioretty or Brassard, but I do believe he could move Cole, a pick, and a prospect start getting some of those pieces. Not saying this is the greatest trade, but I keep going back to Pouliot and Reinhart as an example. Not saying that has to be the deal, but, that deal isn't over the top, but also shouldn't cost a ton. Pouliot is a cheap rental. Cole, a 2nd, and any pick of prospects not Sprong or Jarry, and I think, in theory, it could get done. Pushing Hagelin and Sheahan down to the 4th line should in theory should greatly help, as would Sullivan having permission to sit Reaves on certain nights, at least until the team can right itself.

I didn't really expect this team to 3-peat, but I don't think anyone expected them to miss the playoffs. I also don't think it is acceptable to ownership to miss the playoffs with the talent this team has.


Cole is probably only going to get you a draft pick in return, unless he wants to sign with the other team. Using your Buffalo trade as an example, a non playoff team isn't going to give you roster player like Reinhart for a rental as the primary piece of the deal.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:11 am

Thread updated........big 2 points up for grab against Carolina. Even though the Penguins already failed segment 1, only failing by two points will be much easier to make up.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:48 pm

Thread updated.......Penguins finish segment 1 3-5, earn only 6 of the needed 10 points. Segment 2 starts tomorrow in Brooklyn.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:04 am

Thread updated......
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:56 am

“Penguins have earned 2 of 12 points needed to make up for shortfall in segment 1.”

Shouldn’t that be 14 points needed, not 12, as the ended segment 1 4 points short of their goal?
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:58 pm

Great58 wrote:“Penguins have earned 2 of 12 points needed to make up for shortfall in segment 1.”

Shouldn’t that be 14 points needed, not 12, as the ended segment 1 4 points short of their goal?

:thumb: Fixed. Thanks.
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