Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:30 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated......big loss last night, as the Devils are now a point ahead in the standings with 3 games in hand.

I know the Washington was a big, hard fought game that was going to make playing the Devils the next night a challenge. Kind of wish they would have tanked against the Caps and showed up against NJ. Was a much more important game last night.

As a paying customer, I respectfully disagree. I'd rather have a high energy win at home and then a dud on the road than vice versa. And New Jersey is a place we are acustomed to having low energy performances. New Jersey also probably took them by surprise a bit, too. They're far better than last season. I'll worry when they beat us when we have a day of rest, or when they can threaten to win the season series.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:56 pm

Thread updated......since starting this thread, where the Penguins were just about an even .500 hockey club, the team has since gone 15-6, a .714 winning percentage. I said they needed to go 5-3 over each 8 game segment, which is .625 winning percentage. So, even though they are behind a few points overall on what I estimated for tracking, they are ahead of the winning percentage.

Need to keep up this pace.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:58 am

FLPensFan wrote:Need to keep up this pace.

:thumb:
Dallas and St. Louis make a short but challenging road trip. Then need to avoid the hangover of the return game against the Senators.
Last edited by Great58 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:09 pm

Hockey Reference gives the Pens an 81.7% mathematical chance of making the playoffs, third highest likelihood in the Metro behind Washington at 98.5% and NJD at 85.7%. Philly in fourth at 67%, NYI at 48%, CBJ 47%, Hurricanes at 25% and NYR last at 19.9% (pre-fire sale).
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby OKpensfan247 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:28 pm

Ill be at game this Friday in Dallas. Look forward to seeing Blueger at 4C.

This might work out well, mgt is getting to see some of our call-up (Dea, Blueger) to determine which route to go at Trade Deadline.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:23 am

Thread updated......
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:08 pm

Thread updated.....Penguins have earned required points needed for Segment 2. They have earned 11 points. A win or a OTL Tuesday against Ottawa, and they would make up the points lost in Segment 1. They are currently 14-8-1 through 23 games.

Right now, even if teams behind them with games in hand win those games, Penguins would remain in the playoffs. If Philly, Jersey, and Carolina all won their games in hand, Penguins would be knocked down to 1st WC, either 3 points ahead of Carolina or 2 points up on Columbus.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Skatingpen on Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:11 pm

So you’re saying there is a chance
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Big Easy Pens Fan on Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:22 pm

Right now, even if teams behind them with games in hand win those games, Penguins would remain in the playoffs. If Philly, Jersey, and Carolina all won their games in hand, Penguins would be knocked down to 1st WC, either 3 points ahead of Carolina or 2 points up on Columbus.


But some of the games-in-hand are against each other, which is where those 3 point games could come into play. :roll:

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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Daniel on Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:07 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated.....Penguins have earned required points needed for Segment 2. They have earned 11 points. A win or a OTL Tuesday against Ottawa, and they would make up the points lost in Segment 1. They are currently 14-8-1 through 23 games.

Right now, even if teams behind them with games in hand win those games, Penguins would remain in the playoffs. If Philly, Jersey, and Carolina all won their games in hand, Penguins would be knocked down to 1st WC, either 3 points ahead of Carolina or 2 points up on Columbus.


Segment 3: MIN, SJ, WSH, NJ, VGK, DAL, STL, OTT - segment ends February 13th :lol:
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:06 pm

Big Easy Pens Fan wrote:
Right now, even if teams behind them with games in hand win those games, Penguins would remain in the playoffs. If Philly, Jersey, and Carolina all won their games in hand, Penguins would be knocked down to 1st WC, either 3 points ahead of Carolina or 2 points up on Columbus.


But some of the games-in-hand are against each other, which is where those 3 point games could come into play. :roll:

BEPF

We'll be fine. In fact, I'm starting to believe we can pass the Caps to win the Metro. Caps currently on tour in the Central and not playing their best hockey.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:55 pm

Thread updated. Penguins earn 13 out of 16 possible points in Segment THREE. They have now earned 31 points through the 3 segments, 1 point ahead of the 30 point pace I estimated they would need.

Segment 4 starts with LA on Thursday.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby BfromD on Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:07 am

Great thread.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:55 pm

1st post of thread updated......I think this current segment and the last segment of the season are the two most important with games against Columbus, multiple against Jersey, Philly, Toronto, Washington, Rangers, Islanders all in segment 4 and 6.

Games in hand are starting to drop. Penguins are 1 point behind Washington, but Caps have 3 games in hand.
Philly is 3rd in Metro, 4 points behind us, with 2 games in hand. Best they can do is tie Pittsburgh right now.
New Jersey is in same spot, technically 1st WC spot, same amount of points as Philly and 2 games in hand. Can tie Pittsburgh winning their games in hand.
Carolina is 7 points behind the Penguins with only 1 game in hand.

Penguins right now are securely in the playoffs. It will take a pretty bad losing streak to go back to teetering on the edge.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby pcmforless on Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:40 pm

Great post, and it really looks like Jersey is coming back to their true level a bit as they were not as good as their earlier record. Rangers and Islanders are also doing poorly, so the tough games will definitely be Columbus who plays the Pens hard, Philly who is rolling a bit too, Toronto who is coming into stride and the Caps as always (although I think the haunts of playoffs past gets into the Caps heads a bit this time of year).
Let's go Pens! It's getting to be that magical time of the Hockey season!
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:20 pm

Thread updated.....

Florida is an interesting case right now. They are 8 points out of the final WC spot....but they have played the least amount of games in the NHL, and have 6 games in hand on the Isles who currently hold last WC spot.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby ville5 on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:24 pm

Pens playoff position:
Flyers- 2 games in hand, 4 points behind. We have tie breaker.
Devils- same as Flyers.
Blue Jackets- 2 games in hand, 9 points behind.
Hurricanes- 1 game in hand, 9 points behind.
NYR- 1 game in hand, 13 points behind.
FLA- 5 games in hand, 14 points behind.
Wasn't that long ago Columbus was in metro 2nd and we were on the outside looking in. Things can change quick. But it's certainly looking black n gold through these glasses.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Great58 on Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:51 pm

Rangers are done. Shellacked by the Flyers today at home, Lundqvist booed by the home crowd.
If we can't catch the Caps, I'd like the CBJ or Philly to get the WC #1 to face them in the first round.
I'd like the Islanders to miss, just to see if Tavares will resign or move on. Good drama.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:54 am

Thread updated.....Penguins are a remarkable 18-8-1 over their last 27 games. They are heating up at the right time.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby no name on Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:27 am

FLPensFan wrote:Thread updated.....Penguins are a remarkable 18-8-1 over their last 27 games. They are heating up at the right time.


Pens started to play well when this thread was started.

During the playoffs change it to 7 game segments. :D
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Puck-Lurker on Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:10 am

A lot of games in hand have dropped.

Team Played-Points
WSH 60-75
PIT 61-74
PHI 60-72 (PIT has tiebreaker)

TB 60-83
BOS 58-82
TOR 62-79

NJ 60-70
COL 60-65

CAR 60-64
NYI 61-64
NYR 60-59
FLA 57-58
DET 59-57
MTL 59-52
OTT 59-52
BUF 60-45


We are currently at ME2, no games in hand nonsense; though the Flyers can get to the same amount of points, it's with more shootout wins than the Pens needed.

FLA is pretty much done in my opinion. They put up a few wins in a row, but against stiffer opposition, they're cannon fodder. Both NY teams we'll see drop out shortly as well. They're not that far out of WC2, but they're not trending up (Rags are collapsing for that matter).

Unless really odd things start happening, Pens, Flyers and Devils will be dividing ME2, ME3 and WC1 among themselves, Jackets and Canes will fight for the WC2.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby Lesky on Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:00 pm

Flyers are on an insane roll....
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:37 pm

Better late than never.....thread updated.
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:09 am

Thread updated.....
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Re: Tracking the Penguins: 8 game segments

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:20 am

Thread updated. Even with the mini slump, Penguins still remain 1 point ahead of the pace. Penguins 3 points behind the Caps with a game in hand. Game this week against the Flyers will be a pretty big game.

In the rest of the East, WC 1 seems all but guaranteed of going to the Metro team that can't crack top 3.....one of the Caps, Penguins, Flyers, and Devils.

For WC 2, my money right now is on the Florida Panthers. They have been surging since they got Roberto Luongo back in net. They are only 1 point behind Carolina and Columbus, but with 3 games in hand. They are 8-2 in their last 10 and on a 5 game winning streak.
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