Nostradamus - The 2018-19 Prophecy

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Re: Nostradamus - The 2018-19 Prophecy

Postby LimerickPensFan on Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:49 pm

Daniel wrote:
LimerickPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:I'd say a 20 point increase at age 30 is a career year, especially when the previous few years were pretty close to the norm. Not to mention it's 10 points higher than any year of his career.
It's also .30 points per game more than his average, which is ironically .81.

Not that he can't do it, but his entire career suggests that he won't.


But what if the following year he scores an additional 20 point increase? Then the year obviously wasn't his career year.

That's what I'm saying. You can't determine which year was a player's career year until their career is over.

Career-to-date year?


I aknowledged that he can do it, but that his career numbers suggest that he won't. Of course it's possible that he increases by another 20 points. It's also possible that Phil scores 200 points. I will always agree that stats are nothing more than historical data, but that doesn't mean it can't tell the tale.

Maybe Sullivan increases his 3:45 minute of PP time to 6 minutes. Maybe the NHL calls enough penalties to allow that. His career suggests that last year was a fluke and won't be replicated again. I'd love if he did, that would be fantastic, but does a skill player play the best hockey of their career 12 years into it? What skilled players have had multiple best seasons of their career 12 years into it?

My point is simply that you cannot name a player's "career year" until their career is over.
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