Shop for Pittsburgh Penguins 2017 Stanley Cup Champs Fan Gear and Collectibles

Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Forum for Pittsburgh Penguins-related messages.

Moderators: Three Stars, dagny, pfim, netwolf

Who would you keep on the roster if only 1 player can stay?

Sign Guentzel for 6M, trade Kessel at the 2019 draft.
21
95%
Keep Kessel, trade Guentzel at the 2019 draft
1
5%
 
Total votes : 22

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby LimerickPensFan on Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:38 am

Throughout this conversation, I keep thinking of Rob Brown.

Poll didn't have an option to find a way to keep both.
LimerickPensFan
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 257
Joined: Fri May 04, 2018 11:04 am
Location: Unfortunately, Philadelphia suburbs

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:53 am

Which is why team ebb and flow and cycle in and out of the top spots, and why teams don't win 5 Cups in a row. That's the business. That's the reality. It is not possible to keep the core of your team between 24-29. Moving the old guys for young guys with potential is nice, but the young guys are not sure to deliver. So when they don't reach the level that you hoped for what then? After a few years you are stuck with a bunch of middle/bottom 6 guys and no playoff hopes.

Moving people simply because they are on the wrong side of 30 is folly.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,420
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:55 am

Hatrick wrote:
Jim wrote:
longtimefan wrote:Bridge deals can be dangerous. It depends on how they feel about Guentzel's long term viability. If they're sold, JR has shown a willingness to go term, like Dumoulin. If not, he'll go shorter, like Sheary. Or even Schultz and Murray. Think about TB's situation with Kucherov. They got him on a 3 year bridge deal for less than $5M. Now it's time to pay up, to the tune of $9.5M starting next season. And he did them a favor. How much would he have gotten on an 8 yr deal three years ago? Which would have five years left? I'm sure it would have been a lot less. Pay him now, or pay him later.

The answer to the question in the real world isn't too difficult. Jake's 24, Phil's 31. It's the same answer as when Murray was chosen over Fleury. A 34 or 35 year old Phil probably won't be as valuable as a 27 or 28 year old Jake. However, if they do well this season, there's every reason to believe both will be on the roster next year. Salary won't be the reason if they aren't.



Meh.

3x$5M + 8x9.5M, but sure that he is solid vs 8x$7.5, but rolling the dice.

At the end of 8 years, with the bridge you have given him $62.5M (assured that he was worth it), without the bridge you gave $60M (while rolling the dice). [3x$5+5x$9.5 vs 8x7.5]
At the end of that 8 years he is 30, with the bridge you have 3 more years at $9.5M, without the bridge he is a UFA... what will be the going rate 6 UFA-sets from now for him?

I do not see any downside for the team, even with the higher extension started next year.

there are upsides and downsides of it, bridge deal you are risking them getting much much much more for the longer deal than they would initially get, with the single long term deal you are risking if the player does not live up to that contract then you are stuck with it.

The team is better off during the bridge years span on the bridge contract then they would be a the longer term one as it saves them cap during those years, the downside is after it is over they are then taking up much more space then they would be otherwise.


I'd rather pay a guy $9.5M that I know deserves it than be stuck with a guy at $7.5M that doesn't.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,420
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:51 am

Ericf wrote:
Hatrick wrote:
Ericf wrote:I really don't see us being able to field Cup-competitive teams in the future without trading either Kessel or Letang. As cheap younger players like Jake and Rust grow into larger contracts, we need cheaper players to replace them--not established, more expensive players. In addition, there has never been a team with more than 4 players at age 30+ in significant roles on the roster that has won the SC...just think about that...we have 7 now....

no matter how great Hags and Brass are this year, I think we can't re-sign them if we want to replenish for the remainder of the Sid and Geno years....to get those younger players (since our farm system does not have a ready supply of any more NHL-ready players), we need to trade Phil or Letang, both over 30 players, for younger players aged 25 or younger...

that's how I see it

the 30+ number isn't very significant to me, can they still perform, sid still best in NHL, malkin still elite, kessel had a career year, letang had a very up and down year.
I don't think they can resign brass because he will price himself out of range, I think hagelin could come cheap enough(quite a bit under his current cap) but if somebody else overpays him then they will have to let him walk.
Unless the trade makes the pens better within the next 3 years or so the trade should not be done, regardless of ages.


I think this season will be telling...if they get no where near the Cup final, IMO JR should be aggressive in trading some older players and doing a minor retool, even if we end up with younger players who aren’t yet as good on paper as the older players they’re replacing...just think that’s the way hockey is going...look at WSH...they traded out some older, better players for younger, faster but not as good players and still won the Cup...

Washingtons biggest problem the previous two years before that was not age, it was the penguins and the playoffs in general. They were arguably a better team the previous two seasons, its just mental strength and the penguins short comings that made the real difference.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:00 am

Jim wrote:
Hatrick wrote:
Jim wrote:
longtimefan wrote:Bridge deals can be dangerous. It depends on how they feel about Guentzel's long term viability. If they're sold, JR has shown a willingness to go term, like Dumoulin. If not, he'll go shorter, like Sheary. Or even Schultz and Murray. Think about TB's situation with Kucherov. They got him on a 3 year bridge deal for less than $5M. Now it's time to pay up, to the tune of $9.5M starting next season. And he did them a favor. How much would he have gotten on an 8 yr deal three years ago? Which would have five years left? I'm sure it would have been a lot less. Pay him now, or pay him later.

The answer to the question in the real world isn't too difficult. Jake's 24, Phil's 31. It's the same answer as when Murray was chosen over Fleury. A 34 or 35 year old Phil probably won't be as valuable as a 27 or 28 year old Jake. However, if they do well this season, there's every reason to believe both will be on the roster next year. Salary won't be the reason if they aren't.



Meh.

3x$5M + 8x9.5M, but sure that he is solid vs 8x$7.5, but rolling the dice.

At the end of 8 years, with the bridge you have given him $62.5M (assured that he was worth it), without the bridge you gave $60M (while rolling the dice). [3x$5+5x$9.5 vs 8x7.5]
At the end of that 8 years he is 30, with the bridge you have 3 more years at $9.5M, without the bridge he is a UFA... what will be the going rate 6 UFA-sets from now for him?

I do not see any downside for the team, even with the higher extension started next year.

there are upsides and downsides of it, bridge deal you are risking them getting much much much more for the longer deal than they would initially get, with the single long term deal you are risking if the player does not live up to that contract then you are stuck with it.

The team is better off during the bridge years span on the bridge contract then they would be a the longer term one as it saves them cap during those years, the downside is after it is over they are then taking up much more space then they would be otherwise.


I'd rather pay a guy $9.5M that I know deserves it than be stuck with a guy at $7.5M that doesn't.
That is true, but the second one we don't know if would deserve it yet, and also we don't know if the difference would be small like $2mil or larger like $4 or $5mil. To me there is no clear right or wrong answers because both have unknowns that could turn out worse. Also both options may be more favorable or negative depending on when a teams window to win is open as well so if they value less short term risk at expense of longer term or vice versa.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:41 am

Hatrick wrote:
Jim wrote:I'd rather pay a guy $9.5M that I know deserves it than be stuck with a guy at $7.5M that doesn't.
That is true, but the second one we don't know if would deserve it yet, and also we don't know if the difference would be small like $2mil or larger like $4 or $5mil. To me there is no clear right or wrong answers because both have unknowns that could turn out worse. Also both options may be more favorable or negative depending on when a teams window to win is open as well so if they value less short term risk at expense of longer term or vice versa.


My example was $5Mx3 for the bridge, then $9.5Mx8 after that, vs $7.5Mx8 non-bridge.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,420
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:28 am

LimerickPensFan wrote:Throughout this conversation, I keep thinking of Rob Brown.

Poll didn't have an option to find a way to keep both.

The reason it didn't have a keep both, is because that wasn't the question as posed to me. It was we could only afford to keep one, therefore, one needed to be moved and one needed to stay.
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,508
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:52 am

Jim wrote:Which is why team ebb and flow and cycle in and out of the top spots, and why teams don't win 5 Cups in a row. That's the business. That's the reality. It is not possible to keep the core of your team between 24-29. Moving the old guys for young guys with potential is nice, but the young guys are not sure to deliver. So when they don't reach the level that you hoped for what then? After a few years you are stuck with a bunch of middle/bottom 6 guys and no playoff hopes.

Moving people simply because they are on the wrong side of 30 is folly.

Look, I like Kessel, but I'm a realist when it comes to the business side and the roster side of things. You can't keep players forever.....except maybe the elite, generational guys like Crosby/Malkin.

So, not ignoring all the other elements, you'd move Kessel because:

1) He's on the wrong side of 30, whereas the other asset in question is 7 years younger. It's Fleury vs Murray part deux.
2) The guy on the wrong side of 30 also has the highest forward contract outside 87 and 71.
3) The guy on the wrong side of 30 just had a career year. You see that as a positive. I see the chances of him hitting that number again very slim.
4) The guy on the wrong side of 30 doesn't fit well into the team concept. He plays little defense. He's difficult to coach.
5) The team has a glut of RWs. It is their biggest position of strength.

I could be dead wrong, but I don't see Kessel finishing his contract here. And it's more because of his cap hit and age more than anything. Guentzel, Sprong, Murray are going to become more expensive over the next 2 seasons. Just like last season when there were calls for Sheary or Hagelin to be traded, because it made the most sense with their role and their cap hit. Kessel right now makes the most sense to move if you need cap space for other things. Any thought of moving Kessel though will be tied to Sprong performing at an acceptable level.
FLPensFan
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 9,508
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:21 am

Frankly this is a bit of a ridiculous question and conversation. If Guentzel develops and improves then sure, you keep him over Kessel. But if he seems to top out as a mid-carder, then there is no need to pick one over the other because Guentzel wouldn't deserve a contract that would require moving Kessel.

And as of right now there is zero need to move either.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,420
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby LimerickPensFan on Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:23 am

I'd much rather have a tested over 30 player than a young player that you don't know if he can play well without being centered by the best player of his time.

You're stuck on this 30 thing. While Kessel may have had his best year this past year, he has had some pretty darned good years before this. There is nothing to support your contention about his chances of him hitting that number again. Barring injury, I'm guessing he gets pretty close this season.
LimerickPensFan
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 257
Joined: Fri May 04, 2018 11:04 am
Location: Unfortunately, Philadelphia suburbs

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby 100565 on Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:14 pm

I think Guentzel gets more than $6mil per year; he'll have a great season. As a result, his trade value will be high. If I had to keep only one, it would be Kessel. Kessel would not fetch much of a return in a trade. Jake could.
100565
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:04 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:02 pm

Jim wrote:
Hatrick wrote:
Jim wrote:I'd rather pay a guy $9.5M that I know deserves it than be stuck with a guy at $7.5M that doesn't.
That is true, but the second one we don't know if would deserve it yet, and also we don't know if the difference would be small like $2mil or larger like $4 or $5mil. To me there is no clear right or wrong answers because both have unknowns that could turn out worse. Also both options may be more favorable or negative depending on when a teams window to win is open as well so if they value less short term risk at expense of longer term or vice versa.


My example was $5Mx3 for the bridge, then $9.5Mx8 after that, vs $7.5Mx8 non-bridge.

and one could just as easily create their own numbers that make it a 4million difference rather than 2, like I said it is not an exact science, they are all hypotheticals.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Hatrick on Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:04 pm

100565 wrote:I think Guentzel gets more than $6mil per year; he'll have a great season. As a result, his trade value will be high. If I had to keep only one, it would be Kessel. Kessel would not fetch much of a return in a trade. Jake could.

if guentzel has a great year both would have a sky high trade value. Kessel is on a team friendly contract(despite his cap hit its less than most players of his tier) and still performing like a great player, guentzel might have slightly higher value even if signed for a huge number but both would fetch a massive haul.
Hatrick
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 166
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:48 pm

Re: Poll: Guentzel or Kessel

Postby Jim on Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:56 pm

Hatrick wrote:
Jim wrote:
Hatrick wrote:
Jim wrote:I'd rather pay a guy $9.5M that I know deserves it than be stuck with a guy at $7.5M that doesn't.
That is true, but the second one we don't know if would deserve it yet, and also we don't know if the difference would be small like $2mil or larger like $4 or $5mil. To me there is no clear right or wrong answers because both have unknowns that could turn out worse. Also both options may be more favorable or negative depending on when a teams window to win is open as well so if they value less short term risk at expense of longer term or vice versa.


My example was $5Mx3 for the bridge, then $9.5Mx8 after that, vs $7.5Mx8 non-bridge.

and one could just as easily create their own numbers that make it a 4million difference rather than 2, like I said it is not an exact science, they are all hypotheticals.


A bridge is a big difference or its not a bridge. Everything looking forward is **** hypothetical. That's they way it works.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 16,420
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Previous

Return to Pittsburgh Penguins

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: LimerickPensFan and 16 guests


e-mail