Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

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Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:40 am

Okay so I put together the Pens roster with some beginning moves that as a group I think we agree will happen minus some difference in what actual salaries will be:

1. Jared MCann resigns for $3.5M/3 years - I like MCann and his versatility. I know he had a down year but I think he deserves around the $3M ballpark, I added the extra $0.5K due to signing for three years.
2. Sign Lafferty to two year $850,000 one way contract.


So Currently I have the following roster:

L1: Guentzel - Crosby - X
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: X - MCann - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

Need to move that is on roster: Bjustad

DP1: Letang - Dumo
DP 2: Marino - Petterson
DP3: Johnson - Weeds

Goalies:
DeSmith

Currently at this point we have [b]$7,799,825 Remaining. Our needs are as followed:[/b][b][/b]

Line 1 - Need a RW. My thought is this could be Sheary or Simon?
Line 2 - All set for next season, no changes.
Line 3 - Need a LW. My thought here is we keep Horny as RW for another year and than maybe he goes to Seattle?
Line 4 - All set for next season, no changes.
Extra - I think we bring up Poulin and his $925k. This will bring us down to $6,874,825 remaining which includes Bjustad on the team.
Defense: Need one more solid D man.
Goalie: Obviously need to resign Murray or Jarry.

So from where we are post resigning MCann & Lafferty plus recall of Poulin where do we go from here?

The questions I ask are the following:
1. So if we trade Bjustad could we convert his $4M into maybe a new LW for L3 at like $3M? If so who? The question here is who do we move him to and what LW could we realistically acquire? Maybe we throw a low end draft pick in the pot too. (Example would be Marcus Foligno for $2.85M)
2. If we can move Bjustad and pickup a LW and $1M of salary I think we use that $1M +$1.5M to resign Sheary. Thought here is essentially Bjustad is moved and in return we resolve L1 and L3.
3. Choose a goalie to resign. My thought is resign Jarry for $3.5/3 years. He is the younger and more potential goalie of the future.
4. You trade Murray RFA rights to X team for a established D man. The question here is what team matches for us to acquire a D?

The idea with this post is to copy it and add your transactions. The $6.8M number I did based off cap friendly. I'm just curious where the board stands on things. I know a lot can be determined in this playoff setup especially with our goalies. Thanks.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby DelPen on Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:33 am

I think McCann takes less term, gets him through the cap difficulty over the next two years and then he’s UFA. Hoping just under $3 per year knowing we might not be able to keep him after that but who knows.

Sounds about right for Lafferty.

Schultz needs to be allowed to walk away, he’s not worth any cap space for what it will cost to keep him for what he will bring on a third pair, 2nd PP. Marino took his spot.

Rhuwedel is signed so we have 6 NHL capable guys and a top 4 that can eat minutes to defense can be addressed later. Resign Riikola if he will be content again being depth. He seems to be fine with his role for some reason and he’s actually decent. Plus Joseph is close too so this isn’t a dire need for a change.

Simon and Sheary could each get a 2 year/$1.5 AAV deal, Simon is in the ball park already, Sheary if he has a very good playoffs could earn one but he’s not a priority.

I don’t see a need to qualify Rodrigues at $2 million when Angelo and Lafferty have done as much as he has but if he gets into the lineup and does well he may earn a new deal.

So now we come to goaltending. I’m hoping a team offer sheets Murray and it’s too much for us to counter and we get the 4 first rounders since it will be above $5 million AAV. He’s not worth that much when we have Jarry who’s already better and DeSmith is competent as a backup and will be able to be exposed next year since he’s under contract until 21/22 which is the first expansion season I believe.

If we can move Murray, not resign Schultz and try to move Bjugstad we will be more than fine in cap space even if we have to take back another iffy deal for Bjugstad.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby SubtropicalPenguin on Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:59 pm

DelPen wrote:
So now we come to goaltending. I’m hoping a team offer sheets Murray and it’s too much for us to counter and we get the 4 first rounders since it will be above $5 million AAV.


I haven't seen the 2020 RFA compensation thresholds, but assuming they are roughly in line with last season, the AAV would need to be north of $10.5 million to cost 4 first rounders. Here are the values from last year's chart:

$1,395,053 or below: None

$1,395,054-$2,113,716: 3rd

$2,113,717-$4,227,437: 2nd

$4,227,438-$6,341,152: 1st, 3rd

$6,341,153-$8,454,871: 1st, 2nd, 3rd

$8,454,872-$10,568,589:
2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd

Over
$10,568,590+: 4 1sts
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:03 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Okay so I put together the Pens roster with some beginning moves that as a group I think we agree will happen minus some difference in what actual salaries will be:

1. Jared MCann resigns for $3.5M/3 years - I like MCann and his versatility. I know he had a down year but I think he deserves around the $3M ballpark, I added the extra $0.5K due to signing for three years.
2. Sign Lafferty to two year $850,000 one way contract.


So Currently I have the following roster:

L1: Guentzel - Crosby - X
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: X - MCann - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

Need to move that is on roster: Bjustad

DP1: Letang - Dumo
DP 2: Marino - Petterson
DP3: Johnson - Weeds

Goalies:
DeSmith

Currently at this point we have [b]$7,799,825 Remaining. Our needs are as followed:[/b][b][/b]

Line 1 - Need a RW. My thought is this could be Sheary or Simon?
Line 2 - All set for next season, no changes.
Line 3 - Need a LW. My thought here is we keep Horny as RW for another year and than maybe he goes to Seattle?
Line 4 - All set for next season, no changes.
Extra - I think we bring up Poulin and his $925k. This will bring us down to $6,874,825 remaining which includes Bjustad on the team.
Defense: Need one more solid D man.
Goalie: Obviously need to resign Murray or Jarry.

So from where we are post resigning MCann & Lafferty plus recall of Poulin where do we go from here?

The questions I ask are the following:
1. So if we trade Bjustad could we convert his $4M into maybe a new LW for L3 at like $3M? If so who? The question here is who do we move him to and what LW could we realistically acquire? Maybe we throw a low end draft pick in the pot too. (Example would be Marcus Foligno for $2.85M)
2. If we can move Bjustad and pickup a LW and $1M of salary I think we use that $1M +$1.5M to resign Sheary. Thought here is essentially Bjustad is moved and in return we resolve L1 and L3.
3. Choose a goalie to resign. My thought is resign Jarry for $3.5/3 years. He is the younger and more potential goalie of the future.
4. You trade Murray RFA rights to X team for a established D man. The question here is what team matches for us to acquire a D?

The idea with this post is to copy it and add your transactions. The $6.8M number I did based off cap friendly. I'm just curious where the board stands on things. I know a lot can be determined in this playoff setup especially with our goalies. Thanks.

1. If McCann comes in at 3.5M, I'd like to add an extra year there. 4 years w/3.5M AAV. On a 1 or 2 year deal, with current salary issues, he likely needs to drop down to 2.75-3.25M.
2. Sounds correct for Lafferty.

I'll start with the extra....Poulin isn't going to come here and be an extra next season. If he makes the team, my hope would be that he starts on the 3rd line as the LW, and, if he adjusts well, jumps up to play with Crosby on the RW. He has the ability to play both sides. Poulin is like 3 levels above anybody else the Penguins have in their system. In terms of output, he is projected to fall somewhere in between the Penguins best two forward draft picks of the last 7 years, Kapanen and Guentzel. Most projects have Poulin being a 60 point player in this league, with the ability to surge up to an 80 point player when playing with a world class talent like Sid or Geno. He's supposed to be that good. He was dominate in Juniors last year. He was one of the top 3 players in the QMJHL in most offensive categories. I've read more about him at the national level than at the local level. Obviously, he has to show it on the ice at the NHL level, but, the consensus seems to be he will be a very good player for the Penguins. He has zero left to prove in Juniors, and is still too young for the AHL. I'd be shocked if he doesn't make the team next season. And for those thinking Daniel Sprong....nah, Poulin has been a much better, more rounded player from the outset. Could he still bust? Sure, but, sans Jake Guentzel, Poulin should be the best Penguins best forward draft choice to play for the team since Jordan Staal.

The Penguins will have some interesting decisions around Simon and Sheary. If Sheary has a good playoffs, and is willing to sign for no more than 2M a season on a short term deal, maybe he would return. However, if he doesn't produce, and there are no concerns about Simon's injury longer term, Simon should be the cheaper, safer play. Sheary has never done exceptionally well unless he is playing with Crosby, while Simon has shown the ability to be able to slot in on either wing on any line. He may not have as much scoring potential as Sheary, but, he's probably a bit better defensively and he is a good possession player. If the Penguins feel like I do on Poulin, that he could start on 3rd line and be elevated to 1st line....Simon would be the better player to sign and have playing next to McCann and Hornqvist.

In goal, unless Matt Murray goes out and wins a 3rd cup, with like a sub 1 GAA and a .950 save percentage, I just don't see how he returns. He'll cost too much, and his play has fallen off since the 2nd cup. That's the number one factor. Even if he is far and away better than Jarry (not saying he is), his cost will be prohibitive. To keep Murray, you'd likely have to sacrifice another high salary player, like Hornqvist. That probably wouldn't go over well in the locker room. You also have the added notion that, unless you are dealing away other assets...you run the risk of losing Jarry or Murray to Seattle. I trade Murray and look for a high draft pick and a young RD with top 4 upside. Someone you can play for a good year or two on the 3rd pairing, then move up to 2nd pairing RD when Marino pushes Letang out as the top defenseman. :D

Bjugstad should be traded if someone will take him. Even if it is just Bjugstad for a 7th at this point, I'd take it. Other option would be buy out his last year. Would save them almost 3M on next year's cap, and about 2.9M the season after. Bjugstad is actually a better buyout candidate than Johnson at this point.

The biggest weaknesses going into next season will be the uncertainty of goalie position if Murray is traded, and the 3rd defenseman pairing. Not confident in a JJ-Ruhwedel pairing. I'd rather push Ruhwedel to 7th, get a young up and coming RD, and then have JJ and POJ rotate on the 3rd pairing LD.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby pens_CT on Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:20 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Okay so I put together the Pens roster with some beginning moves that as a group I think we agree will happen minus some difference in what actual salaries will be:

1. Jared MCann resigns for $3.5M/3 years - I like MCann and his versatility. I know he had a down year but I think he deserves around the $3M ballpark, I added the extra $0.5K due to signing for three years.
2. Sign Lafferty to two year $850,000 one way contract.


So Currently I have the following roster:

L1: Guentzel - Crosby - X
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: X - MCann - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

Need to move that is on roster: Bjustad

DP1: Letang - Dumo
DP 2: Marino - Petterson
DP3: Johnson - Weeds

Goalies:
DeSmith

Currently at this point we have [b]$7,799,825 Remaining. Our needs are as followed:[/b][b][/b]

Line 1 - Need a RW. My thought is this could be Sheary or Simon?
Line 2 - All set for next season, no changes.
Line 3 - Need a LW. My thought here is we keep Horny as RW for another year and than maybe he goes to Seattle?
Line 4 - All set for next season, no changes.
Extra - I think we bring up Poulin and his $925k. This will bring us down to $6,874,825 remaining which includes Bjustad on the team.
Defense: Need one more solid D man.
Goalie: Obviously need to resign Murray or Jarry.

So from where we are post resigning MCann & Lafferty plus recall of Poulin where do we go from here?

The questions I ask are the following:
1. So if we trade Bjustad could we convert his $4M into maybe a new LW for L3 at like $3M? If so who? The question here is who do we move him to and what LW could we realistically acquire? Maybe we throw a low end draft pick in the pot too. (Example would be Marcus Foligno for $2.85M)
2. If we can move Bjustad and pickup a LW and $1M of salary I think we use that $1M +$1.5M to resign Sheary. Thought here is essentially Bjustad is moved and in return we resolve L1 and L3.
3. Choose a goalie to resign. My thought is resign Jarry for $3.5/3 years. He is the younger and more potential goalie of the future.
4. You trade Murray RFA rights to X team for a established D man. The question here is what team matches for us to acquire a D?

The idea with this post is to copy it and add your transactions. The $6.8M number I did based off cap friendly. I'm just curious where the board stands on things. I know a lot can be determined in this playoff setup especially with our goalies. Thanks.

1. If McCann comes in at 3.5M, I'd like to add an extra year there. 4 years w/3.5M AAV. On a 1 or 2 year deal, with current salary issues, he likely needs to drop down to 2.75-3.25M.
2. Sounds correct for Lafferty.

I'll start with the extra....Poulin isn't going to come here and be an extra next season. If he makes the team, my hope would be that he starts on the 3rd line as the LW, and, if he adjusts well, jumps up to play with Crosby on the RW. He has the ability to play both sides. Poulin is like 3 levels above anybody else the Penguins have in their system. In terms of output, he is projected to fall somewhere in between the Penguins best two forward draft picks of the last 7 years, Kapanen and Guentzel. Most projects have Poulin being a 60 point player in this league, with the ability to surge up to an 80 point player when playing with a world class talent like Sid or Geno. He's supposed to be that good. He was dominate in Juniors last year. He was one of the top 3 players in the QMJHL in most offensive categories. I've read more about him at the national level than at the local level. Obviously, he has to show it on the ice at the NHL level, but, the consensus seems to be he will be a very good player for the Penguins. He has zero left to prove in Juniors, and is still too young for the AHL. I'd be shocked if he doesn't make the team next season. And for those thinking Daniel Sprong....nah, Poulin has been a much better, more rounded player from the outset. Could he still bust? Sure, but, sans Jake Guentzel, Poulin should be the best Penguins best forward draft choice to play for the team since Jordan Staal.

The Penguins will have some interesting decisions around Simon and Sheary. If Sheary has a good playoffs, and is willing to sign for no more than 2M a season on a short term deal, maybe he would return. However, if he doesn't produce, and there are no concerns about Simon's injury longer term, Simon should be the cheaper, safer play. Sheary has never done exceptionally well unless he is playing with Crosby, while Simon has shown the ability to be able to slot in on either wing on any line. He may not have as much scoring potential as Sheary, but, he's probably a bit better defensively and he is a good possession player. If the Penguins feel like I do on Poulin, that he could start on 3rd line and be elevated to 1st line....Simon would be the better player to sign and have playing next to McCann and Hornqvist.

In goal, unless Matt Murray goes out and wins a 3rd cup, with like a sub 1 GAA and a .950 save percentage, I just don't see how he returns. He'll cost too much, and his play has fallen off since the 2nd cup. That's the number one factor. Even if he is far and away better than Jarry (not saying he is), his cost will be prohibitive. To keep Murray, you'd likely have to sacrifice another high salary player, like Hornqvist. That probably wouldn't go over well in the locker room. You also have the added notion that, unless you are dealing away other assets...you run the risk of losing Jarry or Murray to Seattle. I trade Murray and look for a high draft pick and a young RD with top 4 upside. Someone you can play for a good year or two on the 3rd pairing, then move up to 2nd pairing RD when Marino pushes Letang out as the top defenseman. :D


Bjugstad should be traded if someone will take him. Even if it is just Bjugstad for a 7th at this point, I'd take it. Other option would be buy out his last year. Would save them almost 3M on next year's cap, and about 2.9M the season after. Bjugstad is actually a better buyout candidate than Johnson at this point.

The biggest weaknesses going into next season will be the uncertainty of goalie position if Murray is traded, and the 3rd defenseman pairing. Not confident in a JJ-Ruhwedel pairing. I'd rather push Ruhwedel to 7th, get a young up and coming RD, and then have JJ and POJ rotate on the 3rd pairing LD.



Best case scenario is Murray plays extremely well in the playoffs in order to improve his trade value. As you mentioned I don't see him returning when they can probably sign Jarry to the same type of money that Murray currently makes.

No doubt they need to improve the right defense on the 3rd pairing. Whether that comes in a Murray trade, or some other move I guess we'll see.

Also agree on Poulin, I don't see a reason for him to play another year in juniors, better for him to develop on the 3rd line in the NHL.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby SubtropicalPenguin on Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:20 pm

Unless Jarry gets in the net in the playoffs this season, I would be a bit concerned about having a goalie with 0 playoff experience leading the team for the last several viable years of the Sid/Geno window. I understand the cap issues, but that is a heck of a gamble in my mind right now. Of course, if he goes out there and does what Murray did in 2015-2016, that certainly would assuage my worries.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby DelPen on Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:01 pm

SubtropicalPenguin wrote:
DelPen wrote:
So now we come to goaltending. I’m hoping a team offer sheets Murray and it’s too much for us to counter and we get the 4 first rounders since it will be above $5 million AAV.


I haven't seen the 2020 RFA compensation thresholds, but assuming they are roughly in line with last season, the AAV would need to be north of $10.5 million to cost 4 first rounders. Here are the values from last year's chart:

$1,395,053 or below: None

$1,395,054-$2,113,716: 3rd

$2,113,717-$4,227,437: 2nd

$4,227,438-$6,341,152: 1st, 3rd

$6,341,153-$8,454,871: 1st, 2nd, 3rd

$8,454,872-$10,568,589:
2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd

Over
$10,568,590+: 4 1sts


Teaches me to just use the top hit on google. Must have been several years old.

I’d still take a 1st and 3rd then for him than give him over $4.2 million.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby pens_CT on Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:55 pm

SubtropicalPenguin wrote:Unless Jarry gets in the net in the playoffs this season, I would be a bit concerned about having a goalie with 0 playoff experience leading the team for the last several viable years of the Sid/Geno window. I understand the cap issues, but that is a heck of a gamble in my mind right now. Of course, if he goes out there and does what Murray did in 2015-2016, that certainly would assuage my worries.


The problem with keeping both next year, even if you could get past the cap issue, is the expansion draft at the end of the 20-21 season. You wouldn't want to lose one of the goalies for nothing in return, and you don't want to make a MAF type maneuver again this time with Seattle.

I have no issue with going with Jarry next season even if he doesn't get into the playoffs this season. Nobody knew what to expect when Murray had to carry the load in 2016, Jarry shows the ability to be a number one goalie. I doubt his spine is going to turn in Jell-O if he starts as the guy in the playoffs.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby pens_CT on Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:57 pm

DelPen wrote:
SubtropicalPenguin wrote:
DelPen wrote:
So now we come to goaltending. I’m hoping a team offer sheets Murray and it’s too much for us to counter and we get the 4 first rounders since it will be above $5 million AAV.


I haven't seen the 2020 RFA compensation thresholds, but assuming they are roughly in line with last season, the AAV would need to be north of $10.5 million to cost 4 first rounders. Here are the values from last year's chart:

$1,395,053 or below: None

$1,395,054-$2,113,716: 3rd

$2,113,717-$4,227,437: 2nd

$4,227,438-$6,341,152: 1st, 3rd

$6,341,153-$8,454,871: 1st, 2nd, 3rd

$8,454,872-$10,568,589:
2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd

Over
$10,568,590+: 4 1sts


Teaches me to just use the top hit on google. Must have been several years old.

I’d still take a 1st and 3rd then for him than give him over $4.2 million.


People aren't going to offer sheet Murray. they will try to lowball Rutherford in a trade lnstead knowing he has to move a goalie.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Steve Dave on Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:24 pm

I think Rodrigues signs for 1.0, with injuries we’ll need the depth.

Guentzel Crosby Simon
Zucker Malkin Rust
Poulin McCann Hornqvist
Aston-Reese Blueger Tanev
Angello Lafferty Rodrigues
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Ericf on Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:50 pm

I could definitely see JR signing Jarry for 2-3 years and Murray for one year and letting Murray walk away as a UFA next year at the risk of getting nothing back in return for him (assuming he doesn’t re-sign him and expose Jarry to Seattle). I’m not saying he should do that, but he was willing to even give up an asset to keep MAF for an extra PO run and it benefited the team. I’m not saying that’s the best use of assets but he does love his goaltending depth
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:41 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Bjugstad should be traded if someone will take him. Even if it is just Bjugstad for a 7th at this point, I'd take it. Other option would be buy out his last year. Would save them almost 3M on next year's cap, and about 2.9M the season after. Bjugstad is actually a better buyout candidate than Johnson at this point.


I suspect they will be able to move Bjugstad, unless the injury is worse than we think. It's possible he could end up on LTIR. I really don't think buying him or JJ out this off season are options. They can't afford to have any dead cap money for '21-'22 because of it being flat, and you're going to have to re-sign Marino, Blueger, and ZAR as RFA's. And if Marino has the same type of season next year, he may well push $4.0M AAV himself. They need to keep that in mind with any move they make.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:55 pm

pens_CT wrote:
DelPen wrote:
SubtropicalPenguin wrote:
DelPen wrote:
So now we come to goaltending. I’m hoping a team offer sheets Murray and it’s too much for us to counter and we get the 4 first rounders since it will be above $5 million AAV.


I haven't seen the 2020 RFA compensation thresholds, but assuming they are roughly in line with last season, the AAV would need to be north of $10.5 million to cost 4 first rounders. Here are the values from last year's chart:

$1,395,053 or below: None

$1,395,054-$2,113,716: 3rd

$2,113,717-$4,227,437: 2nd

$4,227,438-$6,341,152: 1st, 3rd

$6,341,153-$8,454,871: 1st, 2nd, 3rd

$8,454,872-$10,568,589:
2 1sts , 2nd, 3rd

Over
$10,568,590+: 4 1sts


Teaches me to just use the top hit on google. Must have been several years old.

I’d still take a 1st and 3rd then for him than give him over $4.2 million.


People aren't going to offer sheet Murray. they will try to lowball Rutherford in a trade lnstead knowing he has to move a goalie.


They won't offer sheet him simply because of so many options that won't require compensation. Holtby, Lehner, and Markstrom are all intriguing UFA's. They can move Murray, but there will be a lot of other options out there for teams. So I'm not expecting a bidding war.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Daniel on Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:27 pm

longtimefan wrote:They won't offer sheet him simply because of so many options that won't require compensation. Holtby, Lehner, and Markstrom are all intriguing UFA's. They can move Murray, but there will be a lot of other options out there for teams. So I'm not expecting a bidding war.


I don't see a huge bidding war but I can see a few teams trying to outbid one another. Detroit, Edmonton, Buffalo have various degrees of goalie need. All three have needed a playoff caliber goalie in forever, Detroit and Buffalo are rebuilding and shouldn't really try to get a close to/over 30 goalie. Whats the point if they can get a guy like Murray for an extra 5-6 years? Edmonton keeps going the route of older UFA and keeps needing a goalie, perhaps a known cup winning young goalie might intrigue them. Edmonton did get Talbot in his late 20s but how many playoff wins does he have?

Heck, when is Calgary going to give up on Jon Gillies? They have Talbot but I'm sure Murray would look good in a Flames uniform. Might be a few other teams that are tired of gambling on UFAs who are over 30 and haven't had a playoff caliber goalie in awhile. Dark horse like maybe Carolina or New Jersey?
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:32 am

Daniel wrote:
longtimefan wrote:They won't offer sheet him simply because of so many options that won't require compensation. Holtby, Lehner, and Markstrom are all intriguing UFA's. They can move Murray, but there will be a lot of other options out there for teams. So I'm not expecting a bidding war.


I don't see a huge bidding war but I can see a few teams trying to outbid one another. Detroit, Edmonton, Buffalo have various degrees of goalie need. All three have needed a playoff caliber goalie in forever, Detroit and Buffalo are rebuilding and shouldn't really try to get a close to/over 30 goalie. Whats the point if they can get a guy like Murray for an extra 5-6 years? Edmonton keeps going the route of older UFA and keeps needing a goalie, perhaps a known cup winning young goalie might intrigue them. Edmonton did get Talbot in his late 20s but how many playoff wins does he have?

Heck, when is Calgary going to give up on Jon Gillies? They have Talbot but I'm sure Murray would look good in a Flames uniform. Might be a few other teams that are tired of gambling on UFAs who are over 30 and haven't had a playoff caliber goalie in awhile. Dark horse like maybe Carolina or New Jersey?


There's still a market, but I'm not sure Murray is the hot commodity he once was. Calgary is a possibility, but Edmonton has $4.5M tied up in Koskinen for each of the next two seasons. The other thing which I didn't realize is it's a young group of UFA goaltenders. Murray is 26, but Holtby and Markstrom are only 30, and Lehner is only 28. I doubt they'd trade Murray within the division unless they're forced to. Colorado has been the most consistent rumored destination, and I'd put the smart money on them.

I do think Murray has more value to a team believing that it's their time as opposed to a rebuilding team. His value is his playoff track record. Edmonton was a possibility, but Koskinen got the big deal, and has frankly played up to it. Colorado's another. I don't think is value his as great in places like Buffalo and Detroit. Both need goalies, but both need quite a bit more than that.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:40 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So Currently I have the following roster:

L1: Guentzel - Crosby - X
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: X - MCann - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

Need to move that is on roster: Bjustad

DP1: Letang - Dumo
DP 2: Marino - Petterson
DP3: Johnson - Weeds

Goalies:
DeSmith


Extra - I think we bring up Poulin and his $925k. This will bring us down to $6,874,825 remaining which includes Bjustad on the team.


Currently I have the following roster:

L1: McCann - Crosby - Guentzel
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: Poulin - Bjugstad - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

OR

L1: Guentzel - Crosby - Bjugstad
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: Poulin - McCann - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

DP1: Letang - Dumo
DP 2: Marino - Petterson
DP3: Johnson - Weeds

Goalies:
DeSmith

From this roster, the goalie situation is primary concern. I think this playoffs will go quite a ways of determining their course of action. I think they will have the cap space to keep both (with creative contracts). I hope they do not keep both. As of now, I think Murray will be traded (with not much of a return; 2nd + B prospect). Then, sign Jarry to 3-4 year deal for about $3.6mil - leaving (from your calculations) $3.2 mil. Resign Riikola for $850K - leaving $2.75mil. Then find the best D (prefer RD) for about $2mil. leaving $.75mil

Bjugstad will be difficult to move without paying a price; I do not think it is worth paying. He is often injured, so LTIR. I suppose there is a chance he might begin the new season on LTIR (admittedly, I do not know what his injury is....to still be out now?)

This leaves a couple good RFAs not on the team...Simon, Rodrigues. Perhaps include them in Murray trade. However, with the flat cap, neither are worth much in trade. I think there will be many (relative to normal year) quality depth guys left unsigned. During the season, as injuries occur, those players will get contracts.

L1: McCann - Crosby - Guentzel
L2: Zucker - Geno - Rust
L3: Poulin - Bjugstad - Horny
L4: ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extras: Lafferty

DP1: Letang - Dumo
DP 2: Marino - Petterson
DP3: Johnson - FA
Extras: Riikola, Ruhwedel

Goalies:
Jarry
DeSmith
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:25 am

I'm okay with McCann and Jarry both at $3.5M for 2 years. I don't see three years because of their UFA status. Some may look at McCann as a slight overpay, but it's obvious they like him. A lot. He's the guy getting bumped to the 1st PP with Sid out in the scrimmages. I certainly would like 4 years better, but I doubt he'd sign for that. Remember, there was a point this season where he looked like a $5M+ player. Things are a bit unknown with a flat cap, but I suspect he'd prefer a chance to enhance his value in a couple of years. Lafferty will sign for $750 to $850K. His reward will be the one way deal. It will be for two seasons to fix his cost for '21-'22. His waiver eligibility is a bonus.

Any moves they make has to keep one eye on '21-'22 with the flat cap situation and the expansion draft. I do expect JR to try and work something out to have Seattle take Horny or JJ in the draft. His relationship with Francis helps. I'm not saying Ronnie would do him a favor so much as they have a comfort level with each other. Such a move is prudent for an expansion team. It gives you an extra asset plus Hornqvist as opposed to Blueger. I like Teddy, but he's not a show stopper. It would be a good move for both sides. And if it costs a pick or a prospect, I'm fine with that. There will be a lot of that going around the league.

Bjugstad's cap hit has to 100% disappear this off season, and Horny and JJ will have to be moved for the season after. The flat cap doesn't leave many options. With the need to sign Blueger, Marino, and ZAR for '21-'22, they'll need the cap space. It's also why one year contracts aren't desirable with anyone you'd like to bring back. Raises will be difficult. They have to maximize the cap space. So they can't afford dead money from a buy out. His situation isn't so onerous he can't be moved. Or placed on LTIR if he doesn't regain his health.

Once Bjugstad is moved, they really don't have a major cap problem next season. McCann and Jarry are the two biggest moves. After that, it's just fitting things in. Simon's injury probably sealed his fate. He'll be back. Although only one year. He may get $1.75-$2.0M. I'm intrigued by Rodrigues. I wouldn't be surprised to see them tender him at the $2M next season. He might be worth a longer look. If they can fit him, why not. Otherwise, he becomes trade bait. I'll be surprised if Riikola returns, and I expect they'll trade his rights. He may be a sweetener in a Bjugstad or Murray deal. There's just not a spot for him. He can't unseat JJ, and POJ has already been designated as JJ's long term replacement.

As far as the UFA's, I just don't see a way to even consider bringing Schultz back, even at a discount. He just wouldn't be cheap enough. Sheary is very up in the air. He's Crosby's RW or bust. I'm just not sure that gets it done. If he does come back, I'd expect that $2.0M mark is the right area. Again, only a year. And if Marleau plays well in the playoffs, I definitely consider offering a contract. He's no risk at $800k-$1M for one year. If he doesn't have anything left, there's no repercussions for waiving him. But they've always liked that cagey veteran, like Cullen and Guerin. He would also give you some flexibility. He won't retire with the all time games played record 40+ games away. Signing in the East wasn't an issue in Toronto. Think about it this way, his leaving would move Angello up one slot on the depth chart. When injuries strike, would you rather have Angello or Marleau? He comes in handy for a year. There's no disruption to the expansion draft plan.

Most agree that the most glaring hole is RD. They need someone to replace Schultz, and the system is bare. Ruhwedel is nice to have around for the peanuts he works for. You want somebody stronger there, but can make due with Chad for a while. He's a decent luxury. They could go the cheap UFA route, like a Van Riemsdyk, but that probably isn't efficient. It's very easy to get burned on those bottom pair vets. See Hunwick.

Assuming they don't have a deal in place with Seattle, they also have to be very conscious of the expansion draft. Many have suggested they bring back a RHD in a Murray deal, and I totally agree. But bringing in somebody you want to protect complicates matters. Letang and Dumo are getting protected, and MP wasn't given that contract to be exposed. So it limits your trade options, or at least diminishes the value of the return.

Murray has to be the goaltender to go. But there's a lot of goaltending hitting the market. Holtby, Lehner, and even Markstrom have cases to make. And there's no assets going the other way. How Murray plays in the playoffs will help determine his value. The one team I've seen connected to the Pens consistently has been Colorado. If that's the case, there may be a deal to be had. You have to reach deep and trust your scouts, but Conor Timmens is a 21 year old RHD. He's considered a pretty safe bet, and has middle pairing potential. Good size and mobile. Not great at anything, but good at everything. Was a 2nd round pick, 32nd overall. His biggest caveat is missing pretty much a year after a bad concussion. A risk. Some never have continuing issues, others careers are short. He played a full season in the AHL. He's considered NHL ready, and has one season left on his ELC at $925K. He won't need protected, and his second contract shouldn't be difficult to absorb moving forward.

Timmins isn't enough by himself, but fills a pretty big hole. He could easily fill the spot as a rookie, with Ruhwedel as a safety net. As far as what more you may be able to get, I think Murray's play will dictate that. I'd love to talk about Bowen Byram, a LD who was the 4th overall pick last season. Another option is Alex Newhook, who was 16th overall last year. He's a 19 year old skilled forward who had a huge college freshman season. I'd be ecstatic if I could get Newhook or Byram and Timmins. Regardless, I think that's the type of deal they prefer to make. It helps with the cap and with the expansion draft. And bolsters the system.

I think Poulin has a legitimate shot to make the team, but I don't think anything should be handed to him. He's still a teenager, and he wasn't a top 10 pick. So enthusiasm needs to be tempered, and a back up plan is needed. People forget Jagr never got above the 3rd line as a rookie. But Poulin probably has earned at least a 9 game look.

So having said all that, here's how I'd try to structure next season's roster.

Guentzel $6M Crosby $8.7M Simon $2M
Zucker $5.5M Malkin $9.5M Rust $3.5M
Marleau $1M McCann $3.5M Hornqvist $5.3M
ZAR $1M Blueger $750K Tanev $3.5M
Rodrigues $2M Poulin $925K

That group of forwards would come in at $53.175M. This is where Lafferty's two way contract comes in handy. He can be sent to WBS. It's a one way contract and removes some of the sting. If Poulin isn't ready, or if Marleau washes out, Lafferty can take their spot. If not, he's signed for the following season. His play may force them to keep him, but there's going to be injures. It just allows the team a little more high quality depth. Regardless, the cap hit would be in that area. I am not suggesting that Poulin be a healthy scratch. He needs to play if he stays. But there will be injuries, and we'll have to see where everybody slots. It would give you a pretty strong 15 player deep group, and Lafferty affords that extra player flexibility.

Dumoulin $4.1M Letang $7.25M
Pettersson $4.02175M Marino $925K
Johnson $3.25M Ruhwedel $700K

$20.24675 with those 6 guys. I'd hope to add a guy like Timmins for $925K. Signing a free agent will change that a lot, and the next season has to be considered. Your draft protected list needs to be considered as well. But if I add the $925K, the defense would have a cap hit of $21.17175M. At some point, POJ will get some time, and be poised to replace JJ in '21-'22.

Jarry $3.5M
DeSmith $1.25M

That scenario produces a cap hit of $79.09675M, leaving you $2.40325M for call ups or to make a deadline splash. You also aren't bringing in a veteran via trade or free agency that will effect the expansion draft moving forward.

2021-22 is the last season of the Malkin and Letang contracts. So things should get a bit more flexible moving forward, but the flat cap will cause issues for this season. Taking the above roster, you'll have to move out both Hornqvist and JJ. Which I propose approaching Francis about. If you can work that out, you also stabilize the rest of your roster from expansion draft disruption. Regardless, it will be imperative to shed the combined cap hit of $8.55M those two account for. It will be needed.

From above, you need to sign Marino, Blueger, and ZAR as RFA's. You'd need to sign Timmins as well, but that shouldn't be too expensive. It's tough to figure the value of all 3 of the other guys, especially Marino. But I suspect a combined cap hit of between $7-$8M would be plausible. Which would represent a raise of between $4.35M and $5.35M.

POJ is slated to take JJ spot's, and Lafferty can fill Horny's roster spot. The UFA's would be Marleau, Simon, Rodrigues and DeSmith. Marleau will have the games played record, and hopefully a cup or two, so he can retire. Simon and Rodrigues will have to compete for the remaining cap space, and prove worthy of keeping. A salary for a backup goalie shouldn't be a huge hurdle.

So in '21-'22, you'd have something like this as an outline:

Guentzel Crosby *****
Zucker Malkin Rust
Poulin McCann Lafferty
ZAR Blueger Tanev
***** *****

Dumoulin Letang
Pettersson Marino
Joseph *****

Jarry
*****

Continuing with my scenario of bringing Timmins in, the lineup would have a cap hit just shy of $70M. You'd have the option of Simon and/or Rodrigues back. Or replace them via free agency or, more likely, from within the system. A Miletic maybe. Or O'Connor. Or, if you can also acquire Newhook, perhaps you get him to leave following his sophomore season. You'd need another depth defenseman. You may bring back Ruhwedel, or you may bring in another FA defenseman. And you'd need to bring back DeSmith or find another backup goaltender. Regardless, those pieces can surely be found for less than $11.5M.

It's not so hard! :) I do think it shows they aren't in terrible shape in terms of the cap. A lot better than some others. Next season is complicated by the expansion draft, but with a few targeted moves, the Pens have an outline to get through the next two flat cap seasons. At that point, Geno and Letang will be UFA's. I expect both likely to be back, but the cap structure will still take a seismic shift. There's a lot of peril right now, with little margin for error. The flat cap has to be managed, and planning for the expansion draft is a complication. You can't make many mistakes, and you have to find a way to be flexible. The outline is there though, with just a few shrewd moves.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby pens_CT on Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:29 am

longtimefan wrote:I'm okay with McCann and Jarry both at $3.5M for 2 years. I don't see three years because of their UFA status. Some may look at McCann as a slight overpay, but it's obvious they like him. A lot. He's the guy getting bumped to the 1st PP with Sid out in the scrimmages. I certainly would like 4 years better, but I doubt he'd sign for that. Remember, there was a point this season where he looked like a $5M+ player. Things are a bit unknown with a flat cap, but I suspect he'd prefer a chance to enhance his value in a couple of years. Lafferty will sign for $750 to $850K. His reward will be the one way deal. It will be for two seasons to fix his cost for '21-'22. His waiver eligibility is a bonus.

Any moves they make has to keep one eye on '21-'22 with the flat cap situation and the expansion draft. I do expect JR to try and work something out to have Seattle take Horny or JJ in the draft. His relationship with Francis helps. I'm not saying Ronnie would do him a favor so much as they have a comfort level with each other. Such a move is prudent for an expansion team. It gives you an extra asset plus Hornqvist as opposed to Blueger. I like Teddy, but he's not a show stopper. It would be a good move for both sides. And if it costs a pick or a prospect, I'm fine with that. There will be a lot of that going around the league.

Bjugstad's cap hit has to 100% disappear this off season, and Horny and JJ will have to be moved for the season after. The flat cap doesn't leave many options. With the need to sign Blueger, Marino, and ZAR for '21-'22, they'll need the cap space. It's also why one year contracts aren't desirable with anyone you'd like to bring back. Raises will be difficult. They have to maximize the cap space. So they can't afford dead money from a buy out. His situation isn't so onerous he can't be moved. Or placed on LTIR if he doesn't regain his health.

Once Bjugstad is moved, they really don't have a major cap problem next season. McCann and Jarry are the two biggest moves. After that, it's just fitting things in. Simon's injury probably sealed his fate. He'll be back. Although only one year. He may get $1.75-$2.0M. I'm intrigued by Rodrigues. I wouldn't be surprised to see them tender him at the $2M next season. He might be worth a longer look. If they can fit him, why not. Otherwise, he becomes trade bait. I'll be surprised if Riikola returns, and I expect they'll trade his rights. He may be a sweetener in a Bjugstad or Murray deal. There's just not a spot for him. He can't unseat JJ, and POJ has already been designated as JJ's long term replacement.

As far as the UFA's, I just don't see a way to even consider bringing Schultz back, even at a discount. He just wouldn't be cheap enough. Sheary is very up in the air. He's Crosby's RW or bust. I'm just not sure that gets it done. If he does come back, I'd expect that $2.0M mark is the right area. Again, only a year. And if Marleau plays well in the playoffs, I definitely consider offering a contract. He's no risk at $800k-$1M for one year. If he doesn't have anything left, there's no repercussions for waiving him. But they've always liked that cagey veteran, like Cullen and Guerin. He would also give you some flexibility. He won't retire with the all time games played record 40+ games away. Signing in the East wasn't an issue in Toronto. Think about it this way, his leaving would move Angello up one slot on the depth chart. When injuries strike, would you rather have Angello or Marleau? He comes in handy for a year. There's no disruption to the expansion draft plan.

Most agree that the most glaring hole is RD. They need someone to replace Schultz, and the system is bare. Ruhwedel is nice to have around for the peanuts he works for. You want somebody stronger there, but can make due with Chad for a while. He's a decent luxury. They could go the cheap UFA route, like a Van Riemsdyk, but that probably isn't efficient. It's very easy to get burned on those bottom pair vets. See Hunwick.

Assuming they don't have a deal in place with Seattle, they also have to be very conscious of the expansion draft. Many have suggested they bring back a RHD in a Murray deal, and I totally agree. But bringing in somebody you want to protect complicates matters. Letang and Dumo are getting protected, and MP wasn't given that contract to be exposed. So it limits your trade options, or at least diminishes the value of the return.

Murray has to be the goaltender to go. But there's a lot of goaltending hitting the market. Holtby, Lehner, and even Markstrom have cases to make. And there's no assets going the other way. How Murray plays in the playoffs will help determine his value. The one team I've seen connected to the Pens consistently has been Colorado. If that's the case, there may be a deal to be had. You have to reach deep and trust your scouts, but Conor Timmens is a 21 year old RHD. He's considered a pretty safe bet, and has middle pairing potential. Good size and mobile. Not great at anything, but good at everything. Was a 2nd round pick, 32nd overall. His biggest caveat is missing pretty much a year after a bad concussion. A risk. Some never have continuing issues, others careers are short. He played a full season in the AHL. He's considered NHL ready, and has one season left on his ELC at $925K. He won't need protected, and his second contract shouldn't be difficult to absorb moving forward.

Timmins isn't enough by himself, but fills a pretty big hole. He could easily fill the spot as a rookie, with Ruhwedel as a safety net. As far as what more you may be able to get, I think Murray's play will dictate that. I'd love to talk about Bowen Byram, a LD who was the 4th overall pick last season. Another option is Alex Newhook, who was 16th overall last year. He's a 19 year old skilled forward who had a huge college freshman season. I'd be ecstatic if I could get Newhook or Byram and Timmins. Regardless, I think that's the type of deal they prefer to make. It helps with the cap and with the expansion draft. And bolsters the system.

I think Poulin has a legitimate shot to make the team, but I don't think anything should be handed to him. He's still a teenager, and he wasn't a top 10 pick. So enthusiasm needs to be tempered, and a back up plan is needed. People forget Jagr never got above the 3rd line as a rookie. But Poulin probably has earned at least a 9 game look.

So having said all that, here's how I'd try to structure next season's roster.

Guentzel $6M Crosby $8.7M Simon $2M
Zucker $5.5M Malkin $9.5M Rust $3.5M
Marleau $1M McCann $3.5M Hornqvist $5.3M
ZAR $1M Blueger $750K Tanev $3.5M
Rodrigues $2M Poulin $925K

That group of forwards would come in at $53.175M. This is where Lafferty's two way contract comes in handy. He can be sent to WBS. It's a one way contract and removes some of the sting. If Poulin isn't ready, or if Marleau washes out, Lafferty can take their spot. If not, he's signed for the following season. His play may force them to keep him, but there's going to be injures. It just allows the team a little more high quality depth. Regardless, the cap hit would be in that area. I am not suggesting that Poulin be a healthy scratch. He needs to play if he stays. But there will be injuries, and we'll have to see where everybody slots. It would give you a pretty strong 15 player deep group, and Lafferty affords that extra player flexibility.

Dumoulin $4.1M Letang $7.25M
Pettersson $4.02175M Marino $925K
Johnson $3.25M Ruhwedel $700K

$20.24675 with those 6 guys. I'd hope to add a guy like Timmins for $925K. Signing a free agent will change that a lot, and the next season has to be considered. Your draft protected list needs to be considered as well. But if I add the $925K, the defense would have a cap hit of $21.17175M. At some point, POJ will get some time, and be poised to replace JJ in '21-'22.

Jarry $3.5M
DeSmith $1.25M

That scenario produces a cap hit of $79.09675M, leaving you $2.40325M for call ups or to make a deadline splash. You also aren't bringing in a veteran via trade or free agency that will effect the expansion draft moving forward.

2021-22 is the last season of the Malkin and Letang contracts. So things should get a bit more flexible moving forward, but the flat cap will cause issues for this season. Taking the above roster, you'll have to move out both Hornqvist and JJ. Which I propose approaching Francis about. If you can work that out, you also stabilize the rest of your roster from expansion draft disruption. Regardless, it will be imperative to shed the combined cap hit of $8.55M those two account for. It will be needed.

From above, you need to sign Marino, Blueger, and ZAR as RFA's. You'd need to sign Timmins as well, but that shouldn't be too expensive. It's tough to figure the value of all 3 of the other guys, especially Marino. But I suspect a combined cap hit of between $7-$8M would be plausible. Which would represent a raise of between $4.35M and $5.35M.

POJ is slated to take JJ spot's, and Lafferty can fill Horny's roster spot. The UFA's would be Marleau, Simon, Rodrigues and DeSmith. Marleau will have the games played record, and hopefully a cup or two, so he can retire. Simon and Rodrigues will have to compete for the remaining cap space, and prove worthy of keeping. A salary for a backup goalie shouldn't be a huge hurdle.

So in '21-'22, you'd have something like this as an outline:

Guentzel Crosby *****
Zucker Malkin Rust
Poulin McCann Lafferty
ZAR Blueger Tanev
***** *****

Dumoulin Letang
Pettersson Marino
Joseph *****

Jarry
*****

Continuing with my scenario of bringing Timmins in, the lineup would have a cap hit just shy of $70M. You'd have the option of Simon and/or Rodrigues back. Or replace them via free agency or, more likely, from within the system. A Miletic maybe. Or O'Connor. Or, if you can also acquire Newhook, perhaps you get him to leave following his sophomore season. You'd need another depth defenseman. You may bring back Ruhwedel, or you may bring in another FA defenseman. And you'd need to bring back DeSmith or find another backup goaltender. Regardless, those pieces can surely be found for less than $11.5M.

It's not so hard! :) I do think it shows they aren't in terrible shape in terms of the cap. A lot better than some others. Next season is complicated by the expansion draft, but with a few targeted moves, the Pens have an outline to get through the next two flat cap seasons. At that point, Geno and Letang will be UFA's. I expect both likely to be back, but the cap structure will still take a seismic shift. There's a lot of peril right now, with little margin for error. The flat cap has to be managed, and planning for the expansion draft is a complication. You can't make many mistakes, and you have to find a way to be flexible. The outline is there though, with just a few shrewd moves.


The problem with Murray and Colorado is they already have two goalie (Grubauer & Francouz) signed for next season for a total of a little over 5 million combined. They would obviously have to move one of those guys, and by all reports Murray is going to want 5+ million on his next deal, so I don't know how much Colorado wants to spend in goal. They have some cap space now, but they only have currently 8 forwards and 4 defensemen signed. They're also going to need some room to sign Makar in 21-22 and he's going to cost big dollars.

Regarding McCann, I'd pump the brakes on assuming he's the 3C on a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations. They obviously have to sign him, but he doesn't play on the PK, he's needs to work on faceoffs, and I don't see him as a very good defensive player. All of those things you would hope to have in a person playing that position. Maybe Blueger assumes that role at some point next year, and Lafferty moves to the 4C, at this point in my opinion it's up for grabs, unless McCann and his line blow the doors off during the playoffs.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Steve Dave on Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:48 am

I think next season will be ZAR’s last as a Pen unless he starts to score more or play more physical. He’s a little to vanilla right now. Angello, Lafferty, Poulin and maybe Rodrigues could push him out unless he brings more.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:33 am

pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:I'm okay with McCann and Jarry both at $3.5M for 2 years. I don't see three years because of their UFA status. Some may look at McCann as a slight overpay, but it's obvious they like him. A lot. He's the guy getting bumped to the 1st PP with Sid out in the scrimmages. I certainly would like 4 years better, but I doubt he'd sign for that. Remember, there was a point this season where he looked like a $5M+ player. Things are a bit unknown with a flat cap, but I suspect he'd prefer a chance to enhance his value in a couple of years. Lafferty will sign for $750 to $850K. His reward will be the one way deal. It will be for two seasons to fix his cost for '21-'22. His waiver eligibility is a bonus.

Any moves they make has to keep one eye on '21-'22 with the flat cap situation and the expansion draft. I do expect JR to try and work something out to have Seattle take Horny or JJ in the draft. His relationship with Francis helps. I'm not saying Ronnie would do him a favor so much as they have a comfort level with each other. Such a move is prudent for an expansion team. It gives you an extra asset plus Hornqvist as opposed to Blueger. I like Teddy, but he's not a show stopper. It would be a good move for both sides. And if it costs a pick or a prospect, I'm fine with that. There will be a lot of that going around the league.

Bjugstad's cap hit has to 100% disappear this off season, and Horny and JJ will have to be moved for the season after. The flat cap doesn't leave many options. With the need to sign Blueger, Marino, and ZAR for '21-'22, they'll need the cap space. It's also why one year contracts aren't desirable with anyone you'd like to bring back. Raises will be difficult. They have to maximize the cap space. So they can't afford dead money from a buy out. His situation isn't so onerous he can't be moved. Or placed on LTIR if he doesn't regain his health.

Once Bjugstad is moved, they really don't have a major cap problem next season. McCann and Jarry are the two biggest moves. After that, it's just fitting things in. Simon's injury probably sealed his fate. He'll be back. Although only one year. He may get $1.75-$2.0M. I'm intrigued by Rodrigues. I wouldn't be surprised to see them tender him at the $2M next season. He might be worth a longer look. If they can fit him, why not. Otherwise, he becomes trade bait. I'll be surprised if Riikola returns, and I expect they'll trade his rights. He may be a sweetener in a Bjugstad or Murray deal. There's just not a spot for him. He can't unseat JJ, and POJ has already been designated as JJ's long term replacement.

As far as the UFA's, I just don't see a way to even consider bringing Schultz back, even at a discount. He just wouldn't be cheap enough. Sheary is very up in the air. He's Crosby's RW or bust. I'm just not sure that gets it done. If he does come back, I'd expect that $2.0M mark is the right area. Again, only a year. And if Marleau plays well in the playoffs, I definitely consider offering a contract. He's no risk at $800k-$1M for one year. If he doesn't have anything left, there's no repercussions for waiving him. But they've always liked that cagey veteran, like Cullen and Guerin. He would also give you some flexibility. He won't retire with the all time games played record 40+ games away. Signing in the East wasn't an issue in Toronto. Think about it this way, his leaving would move Angello up one slot on the depth chart. When injuries strike, would you rather have Angello or Marleau? He comes in handy for a year. There's no disruption to the expansion draft plan.

Most agree that the most glaring hole is RD. They need someone to replace Schultz, and the system is bare. Ruhwedel is nice to have around for the peanuts he works for. You want somebody stronger there, but can make due with Chad for a while. He's a decent luxury. They could go the cheap UFA route, like a Van Riemsdyk, but that probably isn't efficient. It's very easy to get burned on those bottom pair vets. See Hunwick.

Assuming they don't have a deal in place with Seattle, they also have to be very conscious of the expansion draft. Many have suggested they bring back a RHD in a Murray deal, and I totally agree. But bringing in somebody you want to protect complicates matters. Letang and Dumo are getting protected, and MP wasn't given that contract to be exposed. So it limits your trade options, or at least diminishes the value of the return.

Murray has to be the goaltender to go. But there's a lot of goaltending hitting the market. Holtby, Lehner, and even Markstrom have cases to make. And there's no assets going the other way. How Murray plays in the playoffs will help determine his value. The one team I've seen connected to the Pens consistently has been Colorado. If that's the case, there may be a deal to be had. You have to reach deep and trust your scouts, but Conor Timmens is a 21 year old RHD. He's considered a pretty safe bet, and has middle pairing potential. Good size and mobile. Not great at anything, but good at everything. Was a 2nd round pick, 32nd overall. His biggest caveat is missing pretty much a year after a bad concussion. A risk. Some never have continuing issues, others careers are short. He played a full season in the AHL. He's considered NHL ready, and has one season left on his ELC at $925K. He won't need protected, and his second contract shouldn't be difficult to absorb moving forward.

Timmins isn't enough by himself, but fills a pretty big hole. He could easily fill the spot as a rookie, with Ruhwedel as a safety net. As far as what more you may be able to get, I think Murray's play will dictate that. I'd love to talk about Bowen Byram, a LD who was the 4th overall pick last season. Another option is Alex Newhook, who was 16th overall last year. He's a 19 year old skilled forward who had a huge college freshman season. I'd be ecstatic if I could get Newhook or Byram and Timmins. Regardless, I think that's the type of deal they prefer to make. It helps with the cap and with the expansion draft. And bolsters the system.

I think Poulin has a legitimate shot to make the team, but I don't think anything should be handed to him. He's still a teenager, and he wasn't a top 10 pick. So enthusiasm needs to be tempered, and a back up plan is needed. People forget Jagr never got above the 3rd line as a rookie. But Poulin probably has earned at least a 9 game look.

So having said all that, here's how I'd try to structure next season's roster.

Guentzel $6M Crosby $8.7M Simon $2M
Zucker $5.5M Malkin $9.5M Rust $3.5M
Marleau $1M McCann $3.5M Hornqvist $5.3M
ZAR $1M Blueger $750K Tanev $3.5M
Rodrigues $2M Poulin $925K

That group of forwards would come in at $53.175M. This is where Lafferty's two way contract comes in handy. He can be sent to WBS. It's a one way contract and removes some of the sting. If Poulin isn't ready, or if Marleau washes out, Lafferty can take their spot. If not, he's signed for the following season. His play may force them to keep him, but there's going to be injures. It just allows the team a little more high quality depth. Regardless, the cap hit would be in that area. I am not suggesting that Poulin be a healthy scratch. He needs to play if he stays. But there will be injuries, and we'll have to see where everybody slots. It would give you a pretty strong 15 player deep group, and Lafferty affords that extra player flexibility.

Dumoulin $4.1M Letang $7.25M
Pettersson $4.02175M Marino $925K
Johnson $3.25M Ruhwedel $700K

$20.24675 with those 6 guys. I'd hope to add a guy like Timmins for $925K. Signing a free agent will change that a lot, and the next season has to be considered. Your draft protected list needs to be considered as well. But if I add the $925K, the defense would have a cap hit of $21.17175M. At some point, POJ will get some time, and be poised to replace JJ in '21-'22.

Jarry $3.5M
DeSmith $1.25M

That scenario produces a cap hit of $79.09675M, leaving you $2.40325M for call ups or to make a deadline splash. You also aren't bringing in a veteran via trade or free agency that will effect the expansion draft moving forward.

2021-22 is the last season of the Malkin and Letang contracts. So things should get a bit more flexible moving forward, but the flat cap will cause issues for this season. Taking the above roster, you'll have to move out both Hornqvist and JJ. Which I propose approaching Francis about. If you can work that out, you also stabilize the rest of your roster from expansion draft disruption. Regardless, it will be imperative to shed the combined cap hit of $8.55M those two account for. It will be needed.

From above, you need to sign Marino, Blueger, and ZAR as RFA's. You'd need to sign Timmins as well, but that shouldn't be too expensive. It's tough to figure the value of all 3 of the other guys, especially Marino. But I suspect a combined cap hit of between $7-$8M would be plausible. Which would represent a raise of between $4.35M and $5.35M.

POJ is slated to take JJ spot's, and Lafferty can fill Horny's roster spot. The UFA's would be Marleau, Simon, Rodrigues and DeSmith. Marleau will have the games played record, and hopefully a cup or two, so he can retire. Simon and Rodrigues will have to compete for the remaining cap space, and prove worthy of keeping. A salary for a backup goalie shouldn't be a huge hurdle.

So in '21-'22, you'd have something like this as an outline:

Guentzel Crosby *****
Zucker Malkin Rust
Poulin McCann Lafferty
ZAR Blueger Tanev
***** *****

Dumoulin Letang
Pettersson Marino
Joseph *****

Jarry
*****

Continuing with my scenario of bringing Timmins in, the lineup would have a cap hit just shy of $70M. You'd have the option of Simon and/or Rodrigues back. Or replace them via free agency or, more likely, from within the system. A Miletic maybe. Or O'Connor. Or, if you can also acquire Newhook, perhaps you get him to leave following his sophomore season. You'd need another depth defenseman. You may bring back Ruhwedel, or you may bring in another FA defenseman. And you'd need to bring back DeSmith or find another backup goaltender. Regardless, those pieces can surely be found for less than $11.5M.

It's not so hard! :) I do think it shows they aren't in terrible shape in terms of the cap. A lot better than some others. Next season is complicated by the expansion draft, but with a few targeted moves, the Pens have an outline to get through the next two flat cap seasons. At that point, Geno and Letang will be UFA's. I expect both likely to be back, but the cap structure will still take a seismic shift. There's a lot of peril right now, with little margin for error. The flat cap has to be managed, and planning for the expansion draft is a complication. You can't make many mistakes, and you have to find a way to be flexible. The outline is there though, with just a few shrewd moves.


The problem with Murray and Colorado is they already have two goalie (Grubauer & Francouz) signed for next season for a total of a little over 5 million combined. They would obviously have to move one of those guys, and by all reports Murray is going to want 5+ million on his next deal, so I don't know how much Colorado wants to spend in goal. They have some cap space now, but they only have currently 8 forwards and 4 defensemen signed. They're also going to need some room to sign Makar in 21-22 and he's going to cost big dollars.

Regarding McCann, I'd pump the brakes on assuming he's the 3C on a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations. They obviously have to sign him, but he doesn't play on the PK, he's needs to work on faceoffs, and I don't see him as a very good defensive player. All of those things you would hope to have in a person playing that position. Maybe Blueger assumes that role at some point next year, and Lafferty moves to the 4C, at this point in my opinion it's up for grabs, unless McCann and his line blow the doors off during the playoffs.


The reason I bring up Colorado is that they've been the team that have consistently appeared in the rumor mill. And they have a history of trading for goaltenders. Their last two #1's came from Washington in relatively high profile deals. Varlamov and Grubauer. I know they have goaltenders signed, but they've been unhappy with Grubauer at times, and Francouz is a nice back up, but the contract he just signed was to be a back up. They're a team on the cusp who may believe they're a goalie away. They seem to have shown interest in the past, which is half the battle. You have to find a team who believes Murray is the answer.

Regarding McCann, I think you're being a little rough on him. He was bounced all over the line up. He was brought in earmarked as the 3C. He didn't kill penalties a lot this year, but that was personnel and his presence on the PP. In his 32 games with the Pens last year, he scored 3 shorthanded goals. Agree, he needs to work on faceoffs. But it is a skill that can and will improve. Look at Crosby and Malkin in their early seasons. Plus his % of 46.4 is better than Teddy's 45.2. He was brought in to be the 3C. His versatility has been a curse in a way. I think he needs an opportunity to settle in before abandoning the plan. There's a lot of untapped potential there. Which is why they are so high on him.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:43 am

Steve Dave wrote:I think next season will be ZAR’s last as a Pen unless he starts to score more or play more physical. He’s a little to vanilla right now. Angello, Lafferty, Poulin and maybe Rodrigues could push him out unless he brings more.


In fairness to ZAR, he's been fine, just not in the role that he was expected to fill. It's possible his goal scoring will never transfer from college, which is what people expected. But there were some stats that suggested he was by far the best defensive forward in the game this year. I believe it was goals allowed while he was on the ice per 60. It wasn't close, and had some suggesting he would be a good choice for the Selke, even though it would never happen. If he becomes a 4th liner who is strong defensively and on the PK, you can take 8 to 12 goals. He'd have to be paid accordingly, but ZAR had an impressive season defensively. And he does get some chances. Maybe a few more can go in.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby SubtropicalPenguin on Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:09 pm

I didn't realize Marleau was so close to the all time games played record. I would have never guessed that.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:19 pm

SubtropicalPenguin wrote:I didn't realize Marleau was so close to the all time games played record. I would have never guessed that.


Yes. Which is why I discount any idea of him retiring.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:12 pm

longtimefan wrote:Bjugstad's cap hit has to 100% disappear this off season.


That would be nice, but how? specifics. I cannot image any team wanting him for a pick, if so which team? Part of the Murray (or Jarry) trade? Would you do Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th? If so, which team would take that deal?

I could maybe see something like Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD. However, who is that "highly paid, bottom pair RD?"

I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long. As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy. His trade value wasn't high when we got him; it is certainly lower now despite only having a year left.

Otherwise, nice post!
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Jim on Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:20 pm

100565 wrote:
longtimefan wrote:Bjugstad's cap hit has to 100% disappear this off season.


That would be nice, but how? specifics. I cannot image any team wanting him for a pick, if so which team? Part of the Murray (or Jarry) trade? Would you do Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th? If so, which team would take that deal?

I could maybe see something like Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD. However, who is that "highly paid, bottom pair RD?"

I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long. As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy. His trade value wasn't high when we got him; it is certainly lower now despite only having a year left.

Otherwise, nice post!


Um, what? What a take...

No, as Pittsburgh I would not do "Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th", but any team with cap space would. Nor would Pittsburgh do "Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD", but any team with the highly paid bottom pair RD would. Both of those trades would be big wins for the other team. He has 1 year left. When healthy he is quite good. Otherwise he has been on LTIR and not a big deal.

"I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long." Early in his Pens career? He's played 49 games as a Penguin. How early in his Penguins career are you thinking? 2014? 1996?

"As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy." He got an injury that they tried to play him through it, is that when he played like poo? Then a spinal infection. LTIR... not that much of an issue.

If he is healthy, keep him. If you don't want to keep him you can get a 3rd for him rather easily.
If he is not healthy... Season starting LTIR. Not ideal, but not a major issue either.
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