Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:43 pm

Jim wrote:
100565 wrote:
longtimefan wrote:Bjugstad's cap hit has to 100% disappear this off season.


That would be nice, but how? specifics. I cannot image any team wanting him for a pick, if so which team? Part of the Murray (or Jarry) trade? Would you do Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th? If so, which team would take that deal?

I could maybe see something like Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD. However, who is that "highly paid, bottom pair RD?"

I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long. As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy. His trade value wasn't high when we got him; it is certainly lower now despite only having a year left.

Otherwise, nice post!


Um, what? What a take...

No, as Pittsburgh I would not do "Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th", but any team with cap space would. Nor would Pittsburgh do "Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD", but any team with the highly paid bottom pair RD would. Both of those trades would be big wins for the other team. He has 1 year left. When healthy he is quite good. Otherwise he has been on LTIR and not a big deal.

"I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long." Early in his Pens career? He's played 49 games as a Penguin. How early in his Penguins career are you thinking? 2014? 1996?

"As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy." He got an injury that they tried to play him through it, is that when he played like poo? Then a spinal infection. LTIR... not that much of an issue.

If he is healthy, keep him. If you don't want to keep him you can get a 3rd for him rather easily.
If he is not healthy... Season starting LTIR. Not ideal, but not a major issue either.


Nick's been a good hockey player, albeit injury prone. But he's proven he's got some talent when he is healthy. His cap hit at $4.1M isn't all that awful, especially with it expiring. Any team with cap room and need for a potential power forward may be interested. There will be teams with room. The depressed cap may cause you a lesser return, but he's not immovable. In his time with the Pens last season, he played at a 23 goal pace. I'd expect somebody to be intrigued enough to take a flier on him. If he pans out, they can try to re-sign him. I do tend to discount this season. He was never healthy. It is possible he won't be healthy for next season. If so, then LTIR does clear his hit.

The other reason I don't worry a lot about bad contracts is JR. He spends more time speaking to other GM's then anybody else. He's got a good reputation with his fellow GM's as one of the fairer guys to work with. He's been around forever, and ha touched a lot of their careers. And he seems to get out of every bad contract he gets himself into without retaining salary. Last year, people felt Gudbranson couldn't be moved because of his contract. It may cost some other type of currency, but I have total faith JR will find a way out of Hornquist's and JJ's contracts when the time comes. He understands the value of that cap space. Until he gets stuck, I'll have faith in him. Look at his track record. He did retain salary of note once. That was Scuderi for Daly. That worked out very well.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:43 pm

Jim wrote:
Um, what? What a take...

No, as Pittsburgh I would not do "Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th", but any team with cap space would. Nor would Pittsburgh do "Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD", but any team with the highly paid bottom pair RD would. Both of those trades would be big wins for the other team. He has 1 year left. When healthy he is quite good. Otherwise he has been on LTIR and not a big deal.

"I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long." Early in his Pens career? He's played 49 games as a Penguin. How early in his Penguins career are you thinking? 2014? 1996?

"As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy." He got an injury that they tried to play him through it, is that when he played like poo? Then a spinal infection. LTIR... not that much of an issue.

If he is healthy, keep him. If you don't want to keep him you can get a 3rd for him rather easily.
If he is not healthy... Season starting LTIR. Not ideal, but not a major issue either.


You're right. The Pens paid him $5mil this year for 1 goal and 1 assist. It is great value; other teams will jump all over that. Especially since all teams have so much extra cash these days.

I should note, a few posts up I had him as either the 3C or 1RW. The intent of this post was to get specific thoughts on how to get rid of him. Everyone keeps saying moving Bjug to free cap space for x, y, and z. However, no one has provided a specific team or way to move him. I think he stays and hope he returns to his play from three years ago. Right now, IMO, he has negative trade value.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Jim on Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:34 pm

100565 wrote:
Jim wrote:
Um, what? What a take...

No, as Pittsburgh I would not do "Bjugstad + 2nd for someone's 7th", but any team with cap space would. Nor would Pittsburgh do "Bjugstad + Simon for a highly paid, bottom pair RD", but any team with the highly paid bottom pair RD would. Both of those trades would be big wins for the other team. He has 1 year left. When healthy he is quite good. Otherwise he has been on LTIR and not a big deal.

"I liked what I saw of Bjugstad early in his Pens career, but it did not last long." Early in his Pens career? He's played 49 games as a Penguin. How early in his Penguins career are you thinking? 2014? 1996?

"As of now, he makes over $4mil during a time when cap space is crucial, has played like poo, and cannot stay healthy." He got an injury that they tried to play him through it, is that when he played like poo? Then a spinal infection. LTIR... not that much of an issue.

If he is healthy, keep him. If you don't want to keep him you can get a 3rd for him rather easily.
If he is not healthy... Season starting LTIR. Not ideal, but not a major issue either.


You're right. The Pens paid him $5mil this year for 1 goal and 1 assist. It is great value; other teams will jump all over that. Especially since all teams have so much extra cash these days.

I should note, a few posts up I had him as either the 3C or 1RW. The intent of this post was to get specific thoughts on how to get rid of him. Everyone keeps saying moving Bjug to free cap space for x, y, and z. However, no one has provided a specific team or way to move him. I think he stays and hope he returns to his play from three years ago. Right now, IMO, he has negative trade value.


No one said anyone would jump on him. A 3rd is not jumping. However, it will certainly not cost a 2nd ti move him.

I like that you flipped to commenting on his salary since your cap argument fell apart. Injury pay and insurance is part of the business, that doesn't matter either. Third try?
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:48 pm

ok. The Pens paid him $4.1mil this year for 1 goal and 1 assist.

now, I agree with ya.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:52 pm

bjugstad has 28points in his last 2 seasons. teams paid him $8.2 mil in cap. phenomenal value.

ohhh..and he is currently injured - out long term.

I see your point now. thanks.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:17 pm

Not to continually score goals on Murray's glove hand (rather than saying beat a dead horse) :D ...

I keep coming back to Buffalo as the best match for a Penguins trade, if they move Murray. Even without Botteril there now. Why?

1. Buffalo goalies - Carter Hutton is 34. Linus Ulmark is 26 and hasn't really done anything to show he can be more than an average goalie or solid backup. Nope to Andrew Hammond. Jonas Johansson hasn't shown anything yet, and Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen is only 21 with a total of 11 AHL games. Buffalo NEEDS a solid goalie. Just looking at need, Buffalo has a strong need here.

2. Buffalo has a handful of what the Penguins need - Going into 2020-21 season, the Penguins biggest weakness appears to be their 3rd defense pairing. Ruhwedel is average. Johnson is...not average. POJ may get some NHL reps next season, but is probably a season a way from being a top 6 everyday NHL defenseman. RD is the biggest need, but, I would still take an younger/cheap LD if that was the option.

Buffalo has Ristolainen(RD, 25, 5.4M for 2 more years), Colin Miller (RD, 27, 3.875M for 2 more years), Brandon Montour (RD, 26, RFA heading into next season), Henri Jokiharju(RD, 21, 925K next season then RFA) 4 solid options. Buffalo would have to eat half of Ristolainen's salary but, he plays with an edge (which could phase out Johnson). He isn't the top pairing guy on an every day basis. He can be top 4. His underlying numbers haven't been great, but, Buffalo has been mad and they were continually sending Risto out for 24-27 minutes a night...too much for him.

If I had my choice of those RD from Buffalo, in order....Jokiharju, Montour, Ristolainen, Miller.
I'd also take Jake McCabe, who is LD, 26, and 2.85M next year then UFA.

But a Murray for Jokiharju/Montour plus a pick deal would make me happy.

Ottawa, Detroit, and a few other teams have a need for goaltending, but, I don't see them having the assets to trade back. They all have limited supply of young RD, and those they have, they like want to keep.
You won't get Hronek from Detroit, and Ottawa is more loaded on LD. Maybe GMJR would take an all picks return, but, then he'd be left trying to fill out the bottom pairing from UFA or another deal.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:50 am

FLPensFan wrote:Not to continually score goals on Murray's glove hand (rather than saying beat a dead horse) :D ...

I keep coming back to Buffalo as the best match for a Penguins trade, if they move Murray. Even without Botteril there now. Why?

1. Buffalo goalies - Carter Hutton is 34. Linus Ulmark is 26 and hasn't really done anything to show he can be more than an average goalie or solid backup. Nope to Andrew Hammond. Jonas Johansson hasn't shown anything yet, and Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen is only 21 with a total of 11 AHL games. Buffalo NEEDS a solid goalie. Just looking at need, Buffalo has a strong need here.

2. Buffalo has a handful of what the Penguins need - Going into 2020-21 season, the Penguins biggest weakness appears to be their 3rd defense pairing. Ruhwedel is average. Johnson is...not average. POJ may get some NHL reps next season, but is probably a season a way from being a top 6 everyday NHL defenseman. RD is the biggest need, but, I would still take an younger/cheap LD if that was the option.

Buffalo has Ristolainen(RD, 25, 5.4M for 2 more years), Colin Miller (RD, 27, 3.875M for 2 more years), Brandon Montour (RD, 26, RFA heading into next season), Henri Jokiharju(RD, 21, 925K next season then RFA) 4 solid options. Buffalo would have to eat half of Ristolainen's salary but, he plays with an edge (which could phase out Johnson). He isn't the top pairing guy on an every day basis. He can be top 4. His underlying numbers haven't been great, but, Buffalo has been mad and they were continually sending Risto out for 24-27 minutes a night...too much for him.

If I had my choice of those RD from Buffalo, in order....Jokiharju, Montour, Ristolainen, Miller.
I'd also take Jake McCabe, who is LD, 26, and 2.85M next year then UFA.

But a Murray for Jokiharju/Montour plus a pick deal would make me happy.

Ottawa, Detroit, and a few other teams have a need for goaltending, but, I don't see them having the assets to trade back. They all have limited supply of young RD, and those they have, they like want to keep.
You won't get Hronek from Detroit, and Ottawa is more loaded on LD. Maybe GMJR would take an all picks return, but, then he'd be left trying to fill out the bottom pairing from UFA or another deal.


The problem is all of your proposed acquisitions complicate your protected lists. They may not be terrible deals, but they have to be handicapped. Except for Jokiharju, the others are short term. Montour's an RFA with an expiring deal of $3.3875M, and will likely be looking for a raise. A one year deal takes him to UFA status.A long term deal is price prohibitive. Miller was a frequent healthy scratch who will have 2 years left at $3.875M. Jokiharju is somebody I liked a lot, but he has to be protected in the expansion draft. He's an RFA after next season, but I think they could work with that. I like McCabe the player, but that's trading Murray for a likely one and done player at a position without urgency. JJ is likely here one more year, then POJ slots in.

Hopefully they can work something out with Seattle, but you assume you won't have a deal. So your expansion draft list has to be considered whenever you add a player. Jokiharju will have to be protected, as will all the others. That's a complication. If you lose him, the deal becomes a disaster. Letang has to be protected. And Dumo will be. And Pettersson wasn't signed to be left unprotected. They can go that route, but I don't think it's a good use of assets. You have to have something to show for Murray after next season.

Rather than picks, I'd expect JR to look for NHL ready prospects who will be exempt from the draft. It's riskier, but also has much more upside. With all the UFA's, the Pens have to find a trading partner who believes Murray is their final piece, and are willing to pay a little. I come back to Colorado because of their rumored prior interest. And the belief in Colorado that goaltending may be their missing link. They also are a nice match.

I've studied this a lot recently. I thought Edmonton, but they have Koskinen signed for $4.5M for two more years, and he had a nice season. A lot of teams simply aren't a match. The Avs are. I stumbled across Conor Timmins in my pursuit of a potential trade partner. I believe you were the one who recommended Dobber's sight. https://dobberprospects.com/player/conor-timmins/ He's given a 9 for NHL certainty. This from the sportsforecaster:

Can do a little bit of everything reasonably well, since he is responsible defensively and a solid point producer as well. Skates well and can log a lot of minutes. His frame is fairly projectable for the NHL game. Is not really elite in any one area of the game of hockey. Also, he will need to add more bulk and get physically stronger in order to maximize ice time (and production) at the National Hockey League level.
Long Range Potential: Quality, two-way defenseman with upside.


His major caveat is why he won't need protected, even though he was drafted 32nd the same year as Jokiharju. But he missed his entire 1st pro season because of lingering concussion issues. A major red flag. The other side of it is the number of players who have come back without lingering effects. However, he did play this season, putting up 27 pts in 40 AHL games. They wanted him to get a full year in after the lost season, and he impressed. He's considered NHL ready. It's a risk because of the concussion. And it's a risk because he'd be a rookie. But he has a higher ceiling than many you mentioned, without complicating either the cap or the draft.

On the surface, he obviously isn't enough. How much more? That's where Murray's performance comes in. The Avs have some decent prospects who would fit nicely. Murray would have to win the cup to make them part with Byram. Newhook would be the high end. If Murray loses the playoff net, you may have to dig deeper. It still makes Timmins intriguing as a piece.

A deal tailored that way has a lot going for it. A young RHD to add to an increasingly impressive young group. Ready to step into the NHL. Doesn't need protected. On an ELC for one more year, then should be reasonable to sign. Besides protecting your roster from expansion, it helps control costs with a flat cap.

The bonus is this type of deal bolsters your system. As I mentioned, you add Timmins to Marino, MP, and POJ, you have a nice nucleus of young defensemen. Hopefully, you can get someone like Newhook, or even a lesser prospect who may contribute down the line. Newhook may well come out after next season.

One of the hang ups from the Avs point of view may be having Grubauer signed next season for $3.33M, and they just signed Francouz to a $2M x 2 deal. That's clearly a backup's deal. Grubauer may win them the cup, which would make it all moot, but they've been a bit disappointed in him this season. He's a good goalie, but maybe not a clear #1. To expedite the deal, the Pens may consider taking Grubauer back as part of the deal. First of all, he is a quality goaltender, likely an upgrade over DeSmith. He'd be a little more insurance in case Jarry slips. Secondly, although it would be tight, it wouldn't be impossible to fit him in for one season. It would possibly change the dynamics of the expansion draft if DeSmith ends up moving. Either by trade or waivers. It's also possible he'll end up clearing again. It may seem unfair to him, but I can't feel too bad. He's getting $1.25M a year to play at WBS. They will need to have someone available though.

You've got to stay ahead of things with the flat cap. And you're entering a season complicated by the upcoming expansion draft. JR has to be smart with his moves.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:32 am

With the roster I mocked up earlier, I ended up with a cap hit of $79.09675M. Right now I'm bullish on a deal with the Avs. Because I think there may be something there, and it's a deal with some nice layers to it. Murray's play matters, but if the Avs have legitimate interest, I'd think the major hurdle might be them having two goalies signed. I also believe Grubauer is an upgrade over DeSmith.

To Pens: Timmins, Newhook, Grubauer
To Avs: Murray (plus Riikola, Rodrigues, Lafferty) depending on need. Perhaps even ZAR.

Assuming I keep the same roster, and account for DeSmith's buried contract penalty of $175K after sending him to WBS, Grubauer's contract would create a cap hit of $81.355083M. That's obviously too tight, but if Rodrigues were to go, Lafferty replacing him on the roster would pick you up over $1M. Regardless, with just a bit of tinkering, it's a workable situation. If someone picks DeSmith up, you open up $175K. Although having him in the organization for another year would be beneficial for the expansion draft. It would be tight, but could pay dividends.

Taking Grubauer clears the path for the Avs to take Murray and make him their clear cut #1, with a competent backup in place. Including a sweetener like ZAR or Lafferty takes a bit of sting out of losing their top forward prospect. For the Pens, Timmins is the centerpiece, but has enough red flags to make him not nearly enough by himself. But he could fill a position of need for years. Grubauer is a more proven safety net for Jarry based on track record. And Newhook had a big freshman season at BC, with 19G and 42Pts in 34 games. He could easily leave school after his sophomore year and figure into the '21-'22 team. He would possibly overtake Poulin as the #1 prospect in the system.

I'm going deeper than I should, and probably am going down an empty rabbit hole. But that seems like the type of deal that would most benefit the Pens both long and short term.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby pens_CT on Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:53 am

longtimefan wrote:With the roster I mocked up earlier, I ended up with a cap hit of $79.09675M. Right now I'm bullish on a deal with the Avs. Because I think there may be something there, and it's a deal with some nice layers to it. Murray's play matters, but if the Avs have legitimate interest, I'd think the major hurdle might be them having two goalies signed. I also believe Grubauer is an upgrade over DeSmith.

To Pens: Timmins, Newhook, Grubauer
To Avs: Murray (plus Riikola, Rodrigues, Lafferty) depending on need. Perhaps even ZAR.

Assuming I keep the same roster, and account for DeSmith's buried contract penalty of $175K after sending him to WBS, Grubauer's contract would create a cap hit of $81.355083M. That's obviously too tight, but if Rodrigues were to go, Lafferty replacing him on the roster would pick you up over $1M. Regardless, with just a bit of tinkering, it's a workable situation. If someone picks DeSmith up, you open up $175K. Although having him in the organization for another year would be beneficial for the expansion draft. It would be tight, but could pay dividends.

Taking Grubauer clears the path for the Avs to take Murray and make him their clear cut #1, with a competent backup in place. Including a sweetener like ZAR or Lafferty takes a bit of sting out of losing their top forward prospect. For the Pens, Timmins is the centerpiece, but has enough red flags to make him not nearly enough by himself. But he could fill a position of need for years. Grubauer is a more proven safety net for Jarry based on track record. And Newhook had a big freshman season at BC, with 19G and 42Pts in 34 games. He could easily leave school after his sophomore year and figure into the '21-'22 team. He would possibly overtake Poulin as the #1 prospect in the system.

I'm going deeper than I should, and probably am going down an empty rabbit hole. But that seems like the type of deal that would most benefit the Pens both long and short term.


You definitely have the right kind of Murray deal, getting young cheap assets, at least one being NHL ready next season. Putting on my Avalanche hat, I'm concerned about Murray's play this year, maybe a good playoff performance this year minimizes that concern but I would look at the UFA goalie's available before I give away assets. Would you make that trade if the goalie moved is named Jarry not Murray?
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:33 am

pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:With the roster I mocked up earlier, I ended up with a cap hit of $79.09675M. Right now I'm bullish on a deal with the Avs. Because I think there may be something there, and it's a deal with some nice layers to it. Murray's play matters, but if the Avs have legitimate interest, I'd think the major hurdle might be them having two goalies signed. I also believe Grubauer is an upgrade over DeSmith.

To Pens: Timmins, Newhook, Grubauer
To Avs: Murray (plus Riikola, Rodrigues, Lafferty) depending on need. Perhaps even ZAR.

Assuming I keep the same roster, and account for DeSmith's buried contract penalty of $175K after sending him to WBS, Grubauer's contract would create a cap hit of $81.355083M. That's obviously too tight, but if Rodrigues were to go, Lafferty replacing him on the roster would pick you up over $1M. Regardless, with just a bit of tinkering, it's a workable situation. If someone picks DeSmith up, you open up $175K. Although having him in the organization for another year would be beneficial for the expansion draft. It would be tight, but could pay dividends.

Taking Grubauer clears the path for the Avs to take Murray and make him their clear cut #1, with a competent backup in place. Including a sweetener like ZAR or Lafferty takes a bit of sting out of losing their top forward prospect. For the Pens, Timmins is the centerpiece, but has enough red flags to make him not nearly enough by himself. But he could fill a position of need for years. Grubauer is a more proven safety net for Jarry based on track record. And Newhook had a big freshman season at BC, with 19G and 42Pts in 34 games. He could easily leave school after his sophomore year and figure into the '21-'22 team. He would possibly overtake Poulin as the #1 prospect in the system.

I'm going deeper than I should, and probably am going down an empty rabbit hole. But that seems like the type of deal that would most benefit the Pens both long and short term.


You definitely have the right kind of Murray deal, getting young cheap assets, at least one being NHL ready next season. Putting on my Avalanche hat, I'm concerned about Murray's play this year, maybe a good playoff performance this year minimizes that concern but I would look at the UFA goalie's available before I give away assets. Would you make that trade if the goalie moved is named Jarry not Murray?


That's a fair question, but I'm not sure I would. The practical reason being the cap. Murray no way signs for what Jarry does. So it won't fit. I also prefer Jarry. I just think he's a more talented goalie. From purely a fair exchange of talent, that deal may still make some sense. You have to rely heavily on your scouts. Newhook being at BC give Young and Stevens plenty of chances to see him. For it to work at all, Grubauer would have to stay in Colorado. And I'm not sure Jarry's profile commands Newhook and Timmins. Honestly, they may be more than fair. But Murray long term makes me a bit nervous.

I'm a little sour on Murray. I stayed in his camp a long time, but patience runs thin. He gets a lot of rope because of the two cups. And he's had some nice runs in the last three seasons. But it hasn't been the norm. The norm has been an inconsistent average goalie. It's gone on too long, and the first two scrimmages didn't exactly allay those fears. I think his cap hit will be too high for it to make sense. Especially with a much cheaper Jarry who is at least comparable. I'm not big on paying too big on a goalie.

The reason I zero in on Colorado is because of reports both last summer and at the deadline about their interest in a Pens goalie. The Pens best shot is to find someone who has coveted Murray specifically. Otherwise you can play the UFA market. The Avs are a team on the brink, and goaltending may be the only thing which holds them back. If the interest was legitimate, it's a path they should pursue. Part of the incentive is taking Grubauer back. Signing a UFA requires them to find another taker for his cap hit. As I said earlier, I've thought about this too much.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:25 am

So I created two teams trading Murray to Buffalo:

Rasmus Trade:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1804741

Colin White Trade:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1804741

I keep thinking the goalie situation is a harder decision but I am starting to wonder if we are able to move Bjustad? If we can't move this guy it kind of puts us in a rough spot from a forward stand point no?
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Jim on Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:26 am

100565 wrote:bjugstad has 28points in his last 2 seasons. teams paid him $8.2 mil in cap. phenomenal value.

ohhh..and he is currently injured - out long term.

I see your point now. thanks.


So, when Crosby was out with injuries, or Lemieux, the Pens should have dumped them, even paid for someone to take their mon-producibg butts... that's your logic.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:29 am

Bjustad just doesn't fit in our system. Whenever he is out there it is like watching Derrick Brassard 2.0.

He seems like a great guy, just doesn't fit how we play I think. It happens.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:40 am

How about Murray for Connor Murphy? They have to resign Crawford (35yr old) and don't have any quality young goalies. They also have a couple younger D looking for icetime.


I don't like the idea of not making deals that make us better next year simply because of fear of losing player to expansion....lots can happen before expansion.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby pens_CT on Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:07 am

longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:With the roster I mocked up earlier, I ended up with a cap hit of $79.09675M. Right now I'm bullish on a deal with the Avs. Because I think there may be something there, and it's a deal with some nice layers to it. Murray's play matters, but if the Avs have legitimate interest, I'd think the major hurdle might be them having two goalies signed. I also believe Grubauer is an upgrade over DeSmith.

To Pens: Timmins, Newhook, Grubauer
To Avs: Murray (plus Riikola, Rodrigues, Lafferty) depending on need. Perhaps even ZAR.

Assuming I keep the same roster, and account for DeSmith's buried contract penalty of $175K after sending him to WBS, Grubauer's contract would create a cap hit of $81.355083M. That's obviously too tight, but if Rodrigues were to go, Lafferty replacing him on the roster would pick you up over $1M. Regardless, with just a bit of tinkering, it's a workable situation. If someone picks DeSmith up, you open up $175K. Although having him in the organization for another year would be beneficial for the expansion draft. It would be tight, but could pay dividends.

Taking Grubauer clears the path for the Avs to take Murray and make him their clear cut #1, with a competent backup in place. Including a sweetener like ZAR or Lafferty takes a bit of sting out of losing their top forward prospect. For the Pens, Timmins is the centerpiece, but has enough red flags to make him not nearly enough by himself. But he could fill a position of need for years. Grubauer is a more proven safety net for Jarry based on track record. And Newhook had a big freshman season at BC, with 19G and 42Pts in 34 games. He could easily leave school after his sophomore year and figure into the '21-'22 team. He would possibly overtake Poulin as the #1 prospect in the system.

I'm going deeper than I should, and probably am going down an empty rabbit hole. But that seems like the type of deal that would most benefit the Pens both long and short term.


You definitely have the right kind of Murray deal, getting young cheap assets, at least one being NHL ready next season. Putting on my Avalanche hat, I'm concerned about Murray's play this year, maybe a good playoff performance this year minimizes that concern but I would look at the UFA goalie's available before I give away assets. Would you make that trade if the goalie moved is named Jarry not Murray?


That's a fair question, but I'm not sure I would. The practical reason being the cap. Murray no way signs for what Jarry does. So it won't fit. I also prefer Jarry. I just think he's a more talented goalie. From purely a fair exchange of talent, that deal may still make some sense. You have to rely heavily on your scouts. Newhook being at BC give Young and Stevens plenty of chances to see him. For it to work at all, Grubauer would have to stay in Colorado. And I'm not sure Jarry's profile commands Newhook and Timmins. Honestly, they may be more than fair. But Murray long term makes me a bit nervous.

I'm a little sour on Murray. I stayed in his camp a long time, but patience runs thin. He gets a lot of rope because of the two cups. And he's had some nice runs in the last three seasons. But it hasn't been the norm. The norm has been an inconsistent average goalie. It's gone on too long, and the first two scrimmages didn't exactly allay those fears. I think his cap hit will be too high for it to make sense. Especially with a much cheaper Jarry who is at least comparable. I'm not big on paying too big on a goalie.

The reason I zero in on Colorado is because of reports both last summer and at the deadline about their interest in a Pens goalie. The Pens best shot is to find someone who has coveted Murray specifically. Otherwise you can play the UFA market. The Avs are a team on the brink, and goaltending may be the only thing which holds them back. If the interest was legitimate, it's a path they should pursue. Part of the incentive is taking Grubauer back. Signing a UFA requires them to find another taker for his cap hit. As I said earlier, I've thought about this too much.


I think you have identified the correct team, one that's close to making a Cup push but needs a goalie to take them to the next level. I just question whether you can get both Newhook and Timmons in the deal. I get we're taking on a goalie to help with their cap hit and might add a minor piece to the deal if Murray plays lights out in the playoffs theen you have a much better chance making this deal rather looking at his value today.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:15 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So I created two teams trading Murray to Buffalo:

Rasmus Trade:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1804741

Colin White Trade:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1804741

I keep thinking the goalie situation is a harder decision but I am starting to wonder if we are able to move Bjustad? If we can't move this guy it kind of puts us in a rough spot from a forward stand point no?

same links for both.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:32 am

pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:With the roster I mocked up earlier, I ended up with a cap hit of $79.09675M. Right now I'm bullish on a deal with the Avs. Because I think there may be something there, and it's a deal with some nice layers to it. Murray's play matters, but if the Avs have legitimate interest, I'd think the major hurdle might be them having two goalies signed. I also believe Grubauer is an upgrade over DeSmith.

To Pens: Timmins, Newhook, Grubauer
To Avs: Murray (plus Riikola, Rodrigues, Lafferty) depending on need. Perhaps even ZAR.

Assuming I keep the same roster, and account for DeSmith's buried contract penalty of $175K after sending him to WBS, Grubauer's contract would create a cap hit of $81.355083M. That's obviously too tight, but if Rodrigues were to go, Lafferty replacing him on the roster would pick you up over $1M. Regardless, with just a bit of tinkering, it's a workable situation. If someone picks DeSmith up, you open up $175K. Although having him in the organization for another year would be beneficial for the expansion draft. It would be tight, but could pay dividends.

Taking Grubauer clears the path for the Avs to take Murray and make him their clear cut #1, with a competent backup in place. Including a sweetener like ZAR or Lafferty takes a bit of sting out of losing their top forward prospect. For the Pens, Timmins is the centerpiece, but has enough red flags to make him not nearly enough by himself. But he could fill a position of need for years. Grubauer is a more proven safety net for Jarry based on track record. And Newhook had a big freshman season at BC, with 19G and 42Pts in 34 games. He could easily leave school after his sophomore year and figure into the '21-'22 team. He would possibly overtake Poulin as the #1 prospect in the system.

I'm going deeper than I should, and probably am going down an empty rabbit hole. But that seems like the type of deal that would most benefit the Pens both long and short term.


You definitely have the right kind of Murray deal, getting young cheap assets, at least one being NHL ready next season. Putting on my Avalanche hat, I'm concerned about Murray's play this year, maybe a good playoff performance this year minimizes that concern but I would look at the UFA goalie's available before I give away assets. Would you make that trade if the goalie moved is named Jarry not Murray?


That's a fair question, but I'm not sure I would. The practical reason being the cap. Murray no way signs for what Jarry does. So it won't fit. I also prefer Jarry. I just think he's a more talented goalie. From purely a fair exchange of talent, that deal may still make some sense. You have to rely heavily on your scouts. Newhook being at BC give Young and Stevens plenty of chances to see him. For it to work at all, Grubauer would have to stay in Colorado. And I'm not sure Jarry's profile commands Newhook and Timmins. Honestly, they may be more than fair. But Murray long term makes me a bit nervous.

I'm a little sour on Murray. I stayed in his camp a long time, but patience runs thin. He gets a lot of rope because of the two cups. And he's had some nice runs in the last three seasons. But it hasn't been the norm. The norm has been an inconsistent average goalie. It's gone on too long, and the first two scrimmages didn't exactly allay those fears. I think his cap hit will be too high for it to make sense. Especially with a much cheaper Jarry who is at least comparable. I'm not big on paying too big on a goalie.

The reason I zero in on Colorado is because of reports both last summer and at the deadline about their interest in a Pens goalie. The Pens best shot is to find someone who has coveted Murray specifically. Otherwise you can play the UFA market. The Avs are a team on the brink, and goaltending may be the only thing which holds them back. If the interest was legitimate, it's a path they should pursue. Part of the incentive is taking Grubauer back. Signing a UFA requires them to find another taker for his cap hit. As I said earlier, I've thought about this too much.


I think you have identified the correct team, one that's close to making a Cup push but needs a goalie to take them to the next level. I just question whether you can get both Newhook and Timmons in the deal. I get we're taking on a goalie to help with their cap hit and might add a minor piece to the deal if Murray plays lights out in the playoffs theen you have a much better chance making this deal rather looking at his value today.


Which is why his play is so important during the playoffs. I agree, asking for Newhook is a big ask. Regardless, Timmins is a good start. Perhaps Murray's play dips, and you end up with a lesser prospect like Bowers. If Murray's play dips that badly, you probably should be happy with that. But taking Grubauer back is partly to entice them to move Newhook. If it's not the right team, it's the right type of team. We won't know until after everything plays out.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby Jim on Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:34 am

longtimefan wrote:The problem is all of your proposed acquisitions complicate your protected lists...


I am not opposed to exposing Pettersson
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:18 pm

longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:With the roster I mocked up earlier, I ended up with a cap hit of $79.09675M. Right now I'm bullish on a deal with the Avs. Because I think there may be something there, and it's a deal with some nice layers to it. Murray's play matters, but if the Avs have legitimate interest, I'd think the major hurdle might be them having two goalies signed. I also believe Grubauer is an upgrade over DeSmith.

To Pens: Timmins, Newhook, Grubauer
To Avs: Murray (plus Riikola, Rodrigues, Lafferty) depending on need. Perhaps even ZAR.

Assuming I keep the same roster, and account for DeSmith's buried contract penalty of $175K after sending him to WBS, Grubauer's contract would create a cap hit of $81.355083M. That's obviously too tight, but if Rodrigues were to go, Lafferty replacing him on the roster would pick you up over $1M. Regardless, with just a bit of tinkering, it's a workable situation. If someone picks DeSmith up, you open up $175K. Although having him in the organization for another year would be beneficial for the expansion draft. It would be tight, but could pay dividends.

Taking Grubauer clears the path for the Avs to take Murray and make him their clear cut #1, with a competent backup in place. Including a sweetener like ZAR or Lafferty takes a bit of sting out of losing their top forward prospect. For the Pens, Timmins is the centerpiece, but has enough red flags to make him not nearly enough by himself. But he could fill a position of need for years. Grubauer is a more proven safety net for Jarry based on track record. And Newhook had a big freshman season at BC, with 19G and 42Pts in 34 games. He could easily leave school after his sophomore year and figure into the '21-'22 team. He would possibly overtake Poulin as the #1 prospect in the system.

I'm going deeper than I should, and probably am going down an empty rabbit hole. But that seems like the type of deal that would most benefit the Pens both long and short term.


You definitely have the right kind of Murray deal, getting young cheap assets, at least one being NHL ready next season. Putting on my Avalanche hat, I'm concerned about Murray's play this year, maybe a good playoff performance this year minimizes that concern but I would look at the UFA goalie's available before I give away assets. Would you make that trade if the goalie moved is named Jarry not Murray?


That's a fair question, but I'm not sure I would. The practical reason being the cap. Murray no way signs for what Jarry does. So it won't fit. I also prefer Jarry. I just think he's a more talented goalie. From purely a fair exchange of talent, that deal may still make some sense. You have to rely heavily on your scouts. Newhook being at BC give Young and Stevens plenty of chances to see him. For it to work at all, Grubauer would have to stay in Colorado. And I'm not sure Jarry's profile commands Newhook and Timmins. Honestly, they may be more than fair. But Murray long term makes me a bit nervous.

I'm a little sour on Murray. I stayed in his camp a long time, but patience runs thin. He gets a lot of rope because of the two cups. And he's had some nice runs in the last three seasons. But it hasn't been the norm. The norm has been an inconsistent average goalie. It's gone on too long, and the first two scrimmages didn't exactly allay those fears. I think his cap hit will be too high for it to make sense. Especially with a much cheaper Jarry who is at least comparable. I'm not big on paying too big on a goalie.

The reason I zero in on Colorado is because of reports both last summer and at the deadline about their interest in a Pens goalie. The Pens best shot is to find someone who has coveted Murray specifically. Otherwise you can play the UFA market. The Avs are a team on the brink, and goaltending may be the only thing which holds them back. If the interest was legitimate, it's a path they should pursue. Part of the incentive is taking Grubauer back. Signing a UFA requires them to find another taker for his cap hit. As I said earlier, I've thought about this too much.


I think you have identified the correct team, one that's close to making a Cup push but needs a goalie to take them to the next level. I just question whether you can get both Newhook and Timmons in the deal. I get we're taking on a goalie to help with their cap hit and might add a minor piece to the deal if Murray plays lights out in the playoffs theen you have a much better chance making this deal rather looking at his value today.


Which is why his play is so important during the playoffs. I agree, asking for Newhook is a big ask. Regardless, Timmins is a good start. Perhaps Murray's play dips, and you end up with a lesser prospect like Bowers. If Murray's play dips that badly, you probably should be happy with that. But taking Grubauer back is partly to entice them to move Newhook. If it's not the right team, it's the right type of team. We won't know until after everything plays out.

I don't recall where (it may have been Kingerski), but I do recall that someone in media was claiming the Avs had heavy interest in the Penguins goalies earlier in the season. They kicked some tires on that avenue, reportedly. Signing Francouz reportedly complicated or temporarily killed that interest.

I think for the Avs, Jarry would be too much of a risk. He's a risk for the Penguins to annoint him their guy after trading Murray, if they do that. But, I just can't see trading Jarry and keeping Murray. As I mentioned, going down that path is going to cause the Penguins to have to do some major roster alterations to fit Murray's cap hit.

I wouldn't want to take Grubauer back in a deal, and, just my hunch, but, I don't think GMJR wants to keep Casey DeSmith buried in the AHL for another season. Just on a personal level, knowing the type of guy GMJR is with players (see the Pettersson deal as an example), I don't think he would be comfortable signing DeSmith to a 3 year deal and paying him that salary to play in the AHL for all 3 years. Maybe you could work a 3 way deal where Grubauer goes to Team X, Penguins get Timmons plus X, and Avs get Murray. I don't think Murray's value is sky high, but,Timmins isn't a stud prospect. He's a good prospect. I'd probably still want a 1st or 2nd round pick or another solid prospect. Jokiharju is a guy that I would take him and a lesser pick, more 2nd/3rd range.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:33 pm

FLPensFan wrote:I don't recall where (it may have been Kingerski), but I do recall that someone in media was claiming the Avs had heavy interest in the Penguins goalies earlier in the season. They kicked some tires on that avenue, reportedly. Signing Francouz reportedly complicated or temporarily killed that interest.

I think for the Avs, Jarry would be too much of a risk. He's a risk for the Penguins to annoint him their guy after trading Murray, if they do that. But, I just can't see trading Jarry and keeping Murray. As I mentioned, going down that path is going to cause the Penguins to have to do some major roster alterations to fit Murray's cap hit.

I wouldn't want to take Grubauer back in a deal, and, just my hunch, but, I don't think GMJR wants to keep Casey DeSmith buried in the AHL for another season. Just on a personal level, knowing the type of guy GMJR is with players (see the Pettersson deal as an example), I don't think he would be comfortable signing DeSmith to a 3 year deal and paying him that salary to play in the AHL for all 3 years. Maybe you could work a 3 way deal where Grubauer goes to Team X, Penguins get Timmons plus X, and Avs get Murray. I don't think Murray's value is sky high, but,Timmins isn't a stud prospect. He's a good prospect. I'd probably still want a 1st or 2nd round pick or another solid prospect. Jokiharju is a guy that I would take him and a lesser pick, more 2nd/3rd range.


I have no desire at all to move Jarry. The rumors at the deadline came from Kingerski, and it was reported elsewhere as well. There were also rumors last summer, although I assume that involved Jarry. Francouz was signed for backup money. $2M x 2 at age 30. He was signed 3 days before the deadline. There isn't anything of note in their system. Grubauer is their #1. The rumor suggested that the conversations were preliminary, with a possible eye on this summer.

Jokiharju was the 29th pick in 2017, and Timmins was 32nd the same summer. So the pedigree is very similar. A huge difference is that Jokiharju is going to need protected, whereas Timmins is exempt from the draft. That's a huge advantage when putting a roster together.

The deal I proposed taking on Grubauer also included Alex Newhook to the Pens. His freshman season has vaulted him into A prospect territory. At this point, Murray isn't worth that deal. I'm hopeful his play will recover enough to where he is. A lesser deal that brings Timmins plus still might make sense though. I'm more inclined to go that route as opposed to bringing in Jokiharju and potentially losing him or MP in the draft. One will need to be exposed, and I don't think they have any plans to expose MP.

I would feel for DeSmith, but JR has to do what's best for the franchise. He may try to deal him, but he already did right by DeSmith giving him that contract. And he very well may still end up being the backup in the 3rd year of the deal, after Grubauer leaves via free agency. But that isn't the main attraction. Getting young, controlled talent that isn't going to be compromised by the expansion draft is. If taking Grubauer expedites that great. As you said, perhaps the Pens move him. Or perhaps the Avs will move him themselves.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby KG on Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:24 pm

Could definitely see Murray getting moved for a package of younger cheaper players and picks.

Cups add value. If he goes on a run this playoff his value will only increase.

Murray for Schultz replacement and another good young player and or high pick would be nice.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:48 pm

KG wrote:. If he goes on a run this playoff his value will only increase.


If Murray goes on a run this playoff, say to finals, I doubt the Pens trade him. They clear money to sign him. Right?
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:11 pm

100565 wrote:
KG wrote:. If he goes on a run this playoff his value will only increase.


If Murray goes on a run this playoff, say to finals, I doubt the Pens trade him. They clear money to sign him. Right?

I still don't see how they keep him. You'd almost definitely have to move Hornqvist....and you still need money to build a better 3rd pairing then JJ-Ruhwedel.

For S&G, let's just say Murray accepted a 5 year, 6M AAV contract.
McCann @ 3.5M
Simon @ 1.25M
Lafferty @850K
Poulin to 3rd line
POJ to 7th/6th on the left
Bjugstad bought out

Guentzel-Crosby-Simon
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
Poulin-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xLafferty

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
JJ-Ruhwedel
xPOJ

Murray
DeSmith

That's a 22 man roster with 2.2M in cap space left. It works, and you can get 600K more by trading Bjugstad instead of buyout. So, it will work, but, is that best for the team? I don't know. Still need at least a better RD on 3rd pairing. I'd be ok rotating JJ and POJ, and if POJ improves during the season, moving JJ to the bench over POJ. But they would need to make some moves come playoff time to shore up the defense.

Just like the Penguins thought Jarry plateaued a year ago, there has been rumors from several that the Penguins management was not happy with Murray in a few areas. I also think only 6M AAV, seeing what other goalies have gotten, might be a pipe dream.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby longtimefan on Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:27 pm

100565 wrote:
KG wrote:. If he goes on a run this playoff his value will only increase.


If Murray goes on a run this playoff, say to finals, I doubt the Pens trade him. They clear money to sign him. Right?


In my opinion, no. Especially not based on what he's apparently asking for. Even when Murray's on top of his game, there isn't enough difference in play to justify the difference in cap hit. He'd enhance his value, but the flat cap pretty much sealed his fate.
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Re: Pens Roster 20-21 Based on some initial moves

Postby 100565 on Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:15 pm

It would be tough decision. If he wins another cup (starting most games), then they would pay him. 3x cup winning goalie at 26 years old. only 12 goalies in nhl history with more cups. They couldn't pass that up...imo.
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