An updated look ahead to the Penguins 20-21 season

[FLPensFan]

I think JR needs to rebuild the bottom 2 lines. This team needs to get tougher to play against. When they were the fastest team in the league they were able to win by not being physical, but since they are no longer near to being the fastest team, they cant be slow and not-physical. Here are some realistic moves I think changes things up, while still keeping the "core" and also makes them much harder to play against.

1. Trade McCann and ZAR to Montreal for Domi. JR tends to get his guy. I think if they get Domi they will play him with Sid, not 3C. While he can play C, that can help if one of the big 2 centers get hurt etc. He would bring scoring, speed and grit to the lineup.

2. Trade Bjugstad to Nashville for Bonino. Both players have 1 year left making the same $4.1Mill. We know what we get with Bones. For 1 year he can't hurt.

3. Trade Hornqvist to Calgary for Lucic. Both players have 3 years left on their contracts making $5.25mill (5.3mill for Lucic). Lucic had a good season and he is having a strong playoff. He plays hard and would bring an element to this team that has been severely lacking for some time.

4. Trade Simon and JJ to Detroit for a 6th round pick. Detroit gets a serviceable player for their rebuild in Simon and takes Johnson's contract in the process. Think Sheary and Hunwick for a 3rd round pick type of trade.

5. Trade Murray to Buffalo for Montaur. It's been discussed here for a while. It's makes too much sense not to happen Adding 1 more legit D man is needed to help take some of the burden on Letang as he ages.

6. Sign Jesper Fast 3 years $9million

Sid/Domi/Zucker
Geno/Rust/Jake
Bonino/Lucic/Fast
Blueger/Tanev/Poulin (Lafferty)

Letang/Dumo
Marino/MP
Montaur/POJ (RUH)

Jarry
DeSmith

Not a fan. I don't like adding Bonino and Lucic for a few reasons, one of which is, they are both on the wrong side of 30.

Poulin IS NOT a 4th line player. If the Penguins keep Poulin on the roster only to play the 4th line, I'll drive to Pittsburgh myself and dropkick Sullivan and GMJR in the head. He's not Daniel Sprong. He's not poor defensively and devoid of hockey IQ. If Poulin makes the club, he should be on the 3rd line to start. If he improves, then maybe middle of the season he can move up into the top 6. But as a 4th liner....it makes no sense.

I like the Domi get. It remains to be seen if the Penguins truly are interested again, how Montreal values him, and if they are wanting to move him. I still think it would cost the Penguins a Legare or Hallander in a deal for Domi, and I would be willing to move one of them for him. I think McCann and Legare could probably get it done.

I'd look at the UFA market for a 3C. Namestnikov or Haula would be a good get for this team. Both have speed and are good defensively/PK. I've heard Granlund mentioned, but, I think he has a bigger top end that he will be looking for a salary outside the range of.

I still wouldn't mind seeing a bigger guy like Sam Bennett here. He hasn't lived up to his potential as a #4 overall pick, but, I like his size and physical play as a 3C or 3LW. Offer Simon and something to Calgary for him.

[thehockeyguru]

Bennett has 5 goals now this post season, I'll be surprised if Calgary looks to move him

[Jim]

I think JR needs to rebuild the bottom 2 lines. This team needs to get tougher to play against. When they were the fastest team in the league they were able to win by not being physical, but since they are no longer near to being the fastest team, they cant be slow and not-physical. Here are some realistic moves I think changes things up, while still keeping the "core" and also makes them much harder to play against.

1. Trade McCann and ZAR to Montreal for Domi. JR tends to get his guy. I think if they get Domi they will play him with Sid, not 3C. While he can play C, that can help if one of the big 2 centers get hurt etc. He would bring scoring, speed and grit to the lineup.

2. Trade Bjugstad to Nashville for Bonino. Both players have 1 year left making the same $4.1Mill. We know what we get with Bones. For 1 year he can't hurt.

3. Trade Hornqvist to Calgary for Lucic. Both players have 3 years left on their contracts making $5.25mill (5.3mill for Lucic). Lucic had a good season and he is having a strong playoff. He plays hard and would bring an element to this team that has been severely lacking for some time.

4. Trade Simon and JJ to Detroit for a 6th round pick. Detroit gets a serviceable player for their rebuild in Simon and takes Johnson's contract in the process. Think Sheary and Hunwick for a 3rd round pick type of trade.

5. Trade Murray to Buffalo for Montaur. It's been discussed here for a while. It's makes too much sense not to happen Adding 1 more legit D man is needed to help take some of the burden on Letang as he ages.

6. Sign Jesper Fast 3 years $9million

Sid/Domi/Zucker
Geno/Rust/Jake
Bonino/Lucic/Fast
Blueger/Tanev/Poulin (Lafferty)

Letang/Dumo
Marino/MP
Montaur/POJ (RUH)

Jarry
DeSmith

#3 is so bad that the explosion completely destroyed anything of value that you said in the rest of the post.

[KG]

Ha I understand. But if we are looking to get out of a "bad" contract or 3, then we aren't going to be able to get futures for them as many have said. More often than not it's contract for contract, change of scenery type of deals. I don't love it either, I'm just tired of being an aging team that doesn't hit.

I would even look at bringing in UFA Matt Martin for the 4th line. Put him with Teddy and Tanev. That's a solid 4th line who would be a pain to play against.

[thehockeyguru]

Ha I understand. But if we are looking to get out of a "bad" contract or 3, then we aren't going to be able to get futures for them as many have said. More often than not it's contract for contract, change of scenery type of deals. I don't love it either, I'm just tired of being an aging team that doesn't hit.

I would even look at bringing in UFA Matt Martin for the 4th line. Put him with Teddy and Tanev. That's a solid 4th line who would be a pain to play against.

This team needs to get back to 3 solid scoring lines. Like I've said before, you can't trade Kessel's production on the 3rd line and PP not replace it and expect to win. Especially with Sid and Malkin starting to decline.

I'm not saying go out and toss 9M at Taylor Hall but you need another 30 goal scorer on the 3rd line to compete.

The 4th line is fine if you use Lafferty to push ZAR, I think ZAR has gotten too comfortable.

[RentedMule66]

I don't think too many teams have a 3rd liner that can score 30 goals.

[thehockeyguru]

I don't think too many teams have a 3rd liner that can score 30 goals.

Agreed which is fine if you can get 2 guys who can pot 20 goals and a 3rd who can pot 15.

Look at the Staal Kennedy Cooke line. No 30 goal scorers but Staal was a 20-25 goal guy cooke was a 15-20 goal guy and same as Kennedy. They got their share and scored in big games.

Kessel Bonino and Hagelin did the same,.

I think the goal was to have McCann who can pot 15-20, Bjugstad who can do the same and Hornqvist who can score 20.

Problem is Bjugstad hasn't been healthy, McCann hasnt scored in half a season and Hornqvist struggles to score 5 on 5.

That is a ton of money for very little production. McCann and Bjugstad need to be replaced with two guys who can score 20 goals and top out at 25 if you cant get a Kessel.

[FLPensFan]

Molinari today on DK's site says that the Penguins are aggressively pursuing a college level free agent. Rutherford said they have been following the player for several years, and originally, they thought he was going to go back to college this year, but, with the uncertainty of college sports right now, the player decided not to go back. (NOTE: This is not 1 of the 20 some guys that teams did not sign, like Pavylchev), that became free agents last week.)

Rutherford also said that the Penguins were interested in 1 of the 20 some college free agents that teams gave up control of last week, but, it looks like said player has his mind set on another team.

Rutherford also said he has permission to spend to the cap, but he'd prefer not to. He'd like to be 2-3M under the cap going into next season to have flexibility, and also knowing that Marino will be due a new contract the following year.

Finally, the main point of the article was, there is no guarantee the Penguins will keep the #15 overall pick. Rutherford said everything is on the table. They could look to move down/back to acquire more picks, or if a player deal comes along, they will consider it.

[GSdrums87]

McCann and Bjugstad need to be replaced with two guys who can score 20 goals and top out at 25 if you cant get a Kessel.

Oh is that all? Two 3rd liners that can score 25 goals each?

No team has that.

We can't even get that consistently out of our top 6.

[thehockeyguru]

McCann and Bjugstad need to be replaced with two guys who can score 20 goals and top out at 25 if you cant get a Kessel.

Oh is that all? Two 3rd liners that can score 25 goals each?

No team has that.

We can't even get that consistently out of our top 6.

And that's why we've won 1 game in our last two playoffs.

You can't average 2 goals a game in the playoffs and expect to win a series, this team needs to score more.

8 goals in 4 games. Crosby scored 2, Zucker scored 2 then Hornqvist, Guentzel, Bleuger and Rust scored 1.

Whats glaring is no goals from the defense, no goals from Malkin and 2 goals from the bottom 6 in 4 games. That is unacceptable.

[Jim]

Rutherford also said he has permission to spend to the cap, but he'd prefer not to. He'd like to be 2-3M under the cap going into next season to have flexibility...

The a little under for deadline deals is rather normal.

But does this help people finally admit that these writers just pump out click-bait bull-poo that no one should take seriously unless it is a direct quote from a named source?

[FLPensFan]

McCann and Bjugstad need to be replaced with two guys who can score 20 goals and top out at 25 if you cant get a Kessel.

Oh is that all? Two 3rd liners that can score 25 goals each?

No team has that.

We can't even get that consistently out of our top 6.

And that's why we've won 1 game in our last two playoffs.

You can't average 2 goals a game in the playoffs and expect to win a series, this team needs to score more.

20 goal scorers are 3rd lines are pretty rare. I think 15-20 goals, 35-45 points is a realistic expectation of an above average 3rd line player. They aren't going to be a consistent 20 goal scorer, but they will get you somewhere in that 15-20 goal range each year. Maybe one year they'll pop off for 22, and then the next year they only get 15.

Jordan Staal was very much an anomaly. He was too skilled to be a 3C, which is one of the reasons why he wanted to leave. He has over 20 goals in 4 of his 6 seaons here, but.....a lot of those goals came on special teams:

06-07 - 29 goals, 4 on the PP, 7 SH. 18 ES goals was great from him
08-09 - 22 goals, 2 on the PP, 1 SH. 19 ES goals, again, great from him.
09-10 - 21 goals, 1 on the PP, 2 SH. 18 ES goals
11-12 - 25 goals, 5 on the PP, 3 SH. 17 ES goals (big note here, he missed 20 games)

His 2 down years, he had only 12 goals in 82 games (3 of them on the PP), and 11 goals in 42 games (3 of them on the PP).

But those 17-19 goals at ES is the type of consistency at 3C the Penguins have been lacking. After Staal came Sutter....Sutter had 11, then 13, then 21 goals....and in that 21 goal season, 7 goals were special teams (3 PP, 4 PK), which put Sutter at 14 ES goals.

Then you had Bonino. Bonino didn't hit 20 ever with Pittsburgh in his 2 years. He hit 18 in the 2nd Cup year....but he had 6 PPG and 1 SHG that year.

10-15 ES goals from your 3C is pretty average. 15-20 ES goals is definitely a higher end 3C, Most times, when players are exceeding those numbers, it's because they are getting more special teams goals.

Look at some of the players I have been looking at for 3C....Namestnikov has 2 seasons with over 20 goals...and those seasons, he had 8-9 PPG in both, which is not his norm. He usually only has 1-2 PPG a year. He is also usually good for 2-4 SHG in a season.

Granlund has been mentioned here. Granlund has 2 20 goal seasons as well. Both of those 20 goal seasons, he had 7 PPG when he normally only averaged 2. His 26 goal season, he had 7 ppg and 3 shg.

Erik Haula....1 20 goal season on his resume, 29 goals his first year in Vegas. 12 of those that year came on the PP. Before then, with the Wild, he had 1 PPG in 3 seasons.

[FLPensFan]

Rutherford also said he has permission to spend to the cap, but he'd prefer not to. He'd like to be 2-3M under the cap going into next season to have flexibility...

The a little under for deadline deals is rather normal.

But does this help people finally admit that these writers just pump out click-bait bull-poo that no one should take seriously unless it is a direct quote from a named source?

I think it depends on the writers. Rossi and Yohe said the spending would be down, and the Athletic ran with it. Even some of their bigger guys like Custance quoted the article.

Dejan and Molinari a day or two later had an article with a complete 180, basically saying the not spending to the cap was false. They didn't name sources either.

I think part of the problem is, some of these writers think their sources are better than they really are. DK and Molinari are pretty much the straightest shooters out there right now in terms of Pittsburgh hockey media. Madden has more connections than people give him credit for, but, it's hard for people to separate the blowhard crap from the real legit crap from him at times.

[FLPensFan]

Molinari just posted another article at DK's site, this time after speaking with Rutherford. Some of the things mentioned:

--Rutherford said he will "probably" let all 3 UFAs in Schultz, Sheary, and Marleau walk.

--Rutherford also said that, depending on what he can do with trades, it is very possible that all of the RFAs will not be back. One thing that hurts is that, all 8 of the Penguins RFAs have arbitration rights. Rutherford further stated that some of their RFAs likely won't even get a qualifying offer from the team, because, if there is any doubt an arbitration reward can put you over the cap, they won't run that risk.

--Molinari started the article by referencing Rutherford's first trade and, basically said this is what Rutherford is going to look for this summer...not necessarily getting the better player (like Neal for Hornqvist), but getting the player that fits the team best and "brings in a different voice and changes chemistry in the room." Rutherford said he is looking to add one or two players who can change that up.

--Rutherford also made statements about lack of hunger, that showed up in Games 3/4 against the Isles, and returned in Game 3 against Montreal. He said some players seem to have become too comfortable. They aren't willing to battle and put in the work they need to win a game or a series.

--Rutherford listed the priorities as bolstering the depth at center behind Crosby and Malkin and upgrading the defense. But along with that, sounds like he wants to get players that are hungry for a Cup and will do what it takes to win.

******************************************************************************************
My takeaways/reading between the lines (my lines may be different than your lines... )

--I think this spells out in no uncertain terms the end of Murray. They won't take a chance on him getting a huge arbitration reward. I would also be very surprised to see Jared McCann and Dom Simon return. I think of any of the RFAs beyond Murray and Jarry, McCann and Simon both will make the most of any of the Penguins RFAs
-----> Going into the season, everyone was talking about McCann in the 3-4M range on a new deal. To me, he had a disappointing season. He seemed like he could have really taken off. Instead his goal total went down while his point total of 35 was the same as last year. If you use the general 1 point - 100K salary guideline...McCann could be looking at 3.5M AAV. I don't think he's worth that right now. They'd be crazy to let him walk away without a QO and get nothing, but trade bait....maybe
----->Simon in a similar boat. His points/game totals dipped a little this season, but, based on others around the league, 22 & 28 points the last 2 seasons could put him up in the 1.75-2.25M range. I don't think the Penguins can take that risk, especially coming off a major shoulder surgery.

--Depth at center behind Sid and Geno. Is that the strong scent of Domi I smell? Seriously, he's 25. If Malkin retires from the NHL after the next 2 seasons when his contract is up, Domi would be a nice bridge at 27-28 years old.

--Will the upgrade at defense involve removing Jack Johnson as a top 6 defensemen? Even if they can't move him, the decision to not gift him a top 6 spot would be much welcomed.

[dark_forces]

Molinari just posted another article at DK's site, this time after speaking with Rutherford. Some of the things mentioned:

--Rutherford said he will "probably" let all 3 UFAs in Schultz, Sheary, and Marleau walk.

--Rutherford also said that, depending on what he can do with trades, it is very possible that all of the RFAs will not be back. One thing that hurts is that, all 8 of the Penguins RFAs have arbitration rights. Rutherford further stated that some of their RFAs likely won't even get a qualifying offer from the team, because, if there is any doubt an arbitration reward can put you over the cap, they won't run that risk.

--Molinari started the article by referencing Rutherford's first trade and, basically said this is what Rutherford is going to look for this summer...not necessarily getting the better player (like Neal for Hornqvist), but getting the player that fits the team best and "brings in a different voice and changes chemistry in the room." Rutherford said he is looking to add one or two players who can change that up.

--Rutherford also made statements about lack of hunger, that showed up in Games 3/4 against the Isles, and returned in Game 3 against Montreal. He said some players seem to have become too comfortable. They aren't willing to battle and put in the work they need to win a game or a series.

--Rutherford listed the priorities as bolstering the depth at center behind Crosby and Malkin and upgrading the defense. But along with that, sounds like he wants to get players that are hungry for a Cup and will do what it takes to win.

******************************************************************************************
My takeaways/reading between the lines (my lines may be different than your lines... )

--I think this spells out in no uncertain terms the end of Murray. They won't take a chance on him getting a huge arbitration reward. I would also be very surprised to see Jared McCann and Dom Simon return. I think of any of the RFAs beyond Murray and Jarry, McCann and Simon both will make the most of any of the Penguins RFAs
-----> Going into the season, everyone was talking about McCann in the 3-4M range on a new deal. To me, he had a disappointing season. He seemed like he could have really taken off. Instead his goal total went down while his point total of 35 was the same as last year. If you use the general 1 point - 100K salary guideline...McCann could be looking at 3.5M AAV. I don't think he's worth that right now. They'd be crazy to let him walk away without a QO and get nothing, but trade bait....maybe
----->Simon in a similar boat. His points/game totals dipped a little this season, but, based on others around the league, 22 & 28 points the last 2 seasons could put him up in the 1.75-2.25M range. I don't think the Penguins can take that risk, especially coming off a major shoulder surgery.

--Depth at center behind Sid and Geno. Is that the strong scent of Domi I smell? Seriously, he's 25. If Malkin retires from the NHL after the next 2 seasons when his contract is up, Domi would be a nice bridge at 27-28 years old.

--Will the upgrade at defense involve removing Jack Johnson as a top 6 defensemen? Even if they can't move him, the decision to not gift him a top 6 spot would be much welcomed.

Thanks for this summary. I hope they keep their first round pick this year. There are several centers that are rated mid first round and ever since I witnessed the Barzal pick, I would love to see them draft a center who in a year or two could be at least a 2nd line option as Crosby and Malkin age.
I also now have the feeling McCann could be dealt, either as a deal sweetener or for a 4/5 defenseman who plays the right side.
I think Simon returns because he's easy to slot throughout the lineup + I'm sure we could all see a Guentzel-Crosby-Simon line to start things off in the new season.

[100565]

basically said this is what Rutherford is going to look for this summer...not necessarily getting the better player (like Neal for Hornqvist), but getting the player that fits the team best and "brings in a different voice and changes chemistry in the room." Rutherford said he is looking to add one or two players who can change that up.

Sounds like what he was selling last summer. GMJR had one job to do this summer; fire Sully. Time for Mario to clean house.

[thehockeyguru]

McCann and Bjugstad need to be replaced with two guys who can score 20 goals and top out at 25 if you cant get a Kessel.

Oh is that all? Two 3rd liners that can score 25 goals each?

No team has that.

We can't even get that consistently out of our top 6.

And that's why we've won 1 game in our last two playoffs.

You can't average 2 goals a game in the playoffs and expect to win a series, this team needs to score more.

20 goal scorers are 3rd lines are pretty rare. I think 15-20 goals, 35-45 points is a realistic expectation of an above average 3rd line player. They aren't going to be a consistent 20 goal scorer, but they will get you somewhere in that 15-20 goal range each year. Maybe one year they'll pop off for 22, and then the next year they only get 15.

Jordan Staal was very much an anomaly. He was too skilled to be a 3C, which is one of the reasons why he wanted to leave. He has over 20 goals in 4 of his 6 seaons here, but.....a lot of those goals came on special teams:

06-07 - 29 goals, 4 on the PP, 7 SH. 18 ES goals was great from him
08-09 - 22 goals, 2 on the PP, 1 SH. 19 ES goals, again, great from him.
09-10 - 21 goals, 1 on the PP, 2 SH. 18 ES goals
11-12 - 25 goals, 5 on the PP, 3 SH. 17 ES goals (big note here, he missed 20 games)

His 2 down years, he had only 12 goals in 82 games (3 of them on the PP), and 11 goals in 42 games (3 of them on the PP).

But those 17-19 goals at ES is the type of consistency at 3C the Penguins have been lacking. After Staal came Sutter....Sutter had 11, then 13, then 21 goals....and in that 21 goal season, 7 goals were special teams (3 PP, 4 PK), which put Sutter at 14 ES goals.

Then you had Bonino. Bonino didn't hit 20 ever with Pittsburgh in his 2 years. He hit 18 in the 2nd Cup year....but he had 6 PPG and 1 SHG that year.

10-15 ES goals from your 3C is pretty average. 15-20 ES goals is definitely a higher end 3C, Most times, when players are exceeding those numbers, it's because they are getting more special teams goals.

Look at some of the players I have been looking at for 3C....Namestnikov has 2 seasons with over 20 goals...and those seasons, he had 8-9 PPG in both, which is not his norm. He usually only has 1-2 PPG a year. He is also usually good for 2-4 SHG in a season.

Granlund has been mentioned here. Granlund has 2 20 goal seasons as well. Both of those 20 goal seasons, he had 7 PPG when he normally only averaged 2. His 26 goal season, he had 7 ppg and 3 shg.

Erik Haula....1 20 goal season on his resume, 29 goals his first year in Vegas. 12 of those that year came on the PP. Before then, with the Wild, he had 1 PPG in 3 seasons.

Those are good points so I overshot my expectations for 3rd line prodction.

When you spend 4.1M on a 3C and 5.3M on a 3RW you'd think you could count on 15-20 ES goals but the Pens can't.

[Pensfan4life8771]

He said possibly no RFA's resigned...that includes Jarry

We are keeping Jarry right

[Jim]

He said possibly no RFA's resigned...that includes Jarry :shock:

We are keeping Jarry right :?:

He didnt say none of them would be back, he said not all of them would be back.

[Ohio_Pens_fan]

He said possibly no RFA's resigned...that includes Jarry

We are keeping Jarry right

I saw that too. I wrote it off as a 'misspoke' by GMJR, otherwise it makes no logical sense at all --- "...it is very possible that all of the RFAs will not be back".

[FLPensFan]

He said possibly no RFA's resigned...that includes Jarry

We are keeping Jarry right

I saw that too. I wrote it off as a 'misspoke' by GMJR, otherwise it makes no logical sense at all.

We know both of their goalies are RFAs. While nothing confirmed, there were heavy rumors all season that Murray and his reps are asking for upwards of 8M AAV. That's just not going to happen in Pittsburgh. Because of cap issues, because of Murray's play the last 3 years, and because of the teams rumored disappointment in some of his habits (ie playing too deep). The writing was on the wall when Rutherford refused to negotiate with Murray during the season.

There should be some concern with Jarry in terms of salary. Merzlikins in CBJ got 4M AAV. Jarry's numbers are pretty similar to Merzlikins, and Jarry was an All-Star. He only got 1 post-season start, but he played extremely well. But, I think 4-4.5M is the high end for Jarry, and that is a liveable number.

[FLPensFan]

Reports starting to surface that Penguins are going to sign LW Luke Stevens. 6'4" 220. He was a 5th round pick of Carolina, and, is the son of Kevin Stevens. Not sure if this means there is another in the works. Rutherford told Molinari they were going to sign someone, but it wasn't one of the recent college UFAs whose draft rights expired. He also said there was one of those recent college UFAs drafted by other teams that they did want, but he wanted to go another way. Maybe this was Stevens. Maybe he wanted to go Boston?

I dunno. Will be interesting to see if this is there only college UFA signing when it becomes official.

[Maestro]

If the Pens give 8mil/yr to no glove Murray I will begin to root for a different team.

[ville5]

Reports starting to surface that Penguins are going to sign LW Luke Stevens. 6'4" 220. He was a 5th round pick of Carolina, and, is the son of Kevin Stevens. Not sure if this means there is another in the works. Rutherford told Molinari they were going to sign someone, but it wasn't one of the recent college UFAs whose draft rights expired. He also said there was one of those recent college UFAs drafted by other teams that they did want, but he wanted to go another way. Maybe this was Stevens. Maybe he wanted to go Boston?

I dunno. Will be interesting to see if this is there only college UFA signing when it becomes official.

I've read some guess it could be Maniscalco..
RD plays with Austin. :shrug:

[GSdrums87]

If the Pens give 8mil/yr to no glove Murray I will begin to root for a different team.

I'd do the same even at $6 million.