Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

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Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:01 pm

Hey. I like your analysis of things. I am going to put together three capfriendly scenarios for the Pens in the off-season. I was thinking following scenarios:
1. We get No 1 overall
2. We don’t and keep Letang
3. We don’t and move Letang

If I post them in here can you look at them and we can through message board create the three teams. As a board we would talk out deals and than agree and I can edit the created team from what I originally submitted. I’m curious to see where you think we could end up at opening night hopefully 2021.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:27 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Hey. I like your analysis of things. I am going to put together three capfriendly scenarios for the Pens in the off-season. I was thinking following scenarios:
1. We get No 1 overall
2. We don’t and keep Letang
3. We don’t and move Letang

If I post them in here can you look at them and we can through message board create the three teams. As a board we would talk out deals and than agree and I can edit the created team from what I originally submitted. I’m curious to see where you think we could end up at opening night hopefully 2021.

Sure thing.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:19 pm

Ok here is the three scenarios I mentioned before:

Scenario 1: We win Alex L lottery:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825814

Scenario 2: We lose lottery and move Letang:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825865

Scenario 3: We lose lottery and no core player moved:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825930

Doing Scenario 1 was seamless as salary cap was always there to make moves. Scenario 2 was hardest as it is difficult to find value for Letang. Scenario 3 which is honestly the most likely scenario in reality was difficult with moving JJ/Bjustad/Murray. One other thing I will point out was I made it a goal in all three to revamp line 3. I have two thoughts on line 3 regarding the roster:

- Line 4 of ZAR - Teddy - Tanev could bump to line 3 and than replace line 4 with a combo of Poulin/X/X
- Other thought was finding a place for Hornqvist is difficult on this team at this current moment. I had a harder time rebuilding the D after moving Letang than moving the forwards around. Regarding Hornqvist I did find it interesting as the idea came across me when doing scenario three. We can discuss when we get to that scenario but the idea of this is intriguing:

Line 1: Zucker - Sid - Free agent that fits with these two
Line 2: Jake - Geno - Horny
Line 3: X - X - Rust

I know it puts Rust down to the third line but I think unless we move Hornqvist Rust is kind of stuck because of it...but something we can discuss when we get to that scenario :D . Which scenario do you want to examine first?
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:52 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Ok here is the three scenarios I mentioned before:

Scenario 1: We win Alex L lottery:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825814

Scenario 2: We lose lottery and move Letang:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825865

Scenario 3: We lose lottery and no core player moved:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825930

Doing Scenario 1 was seamless as salary cap was always there to make moves. Scenario 2 was hardest as it is difficult to find value for Letang. Scenario 3 which is honestly the most likely scenario in reality was difficult with moving JJ/Bjustad/Murray. One other thing I will point out was I made it a goal in all three to revamp line 3. I have two thoughts on line 3 regarding the roster:

- Line 4 of ZAR - Teddy - Tanev could bump to line 3 and than replace line 4 with a combo of Poulin/X/X
- Other thought was finding a place for Hornqvist is difficult on this team at this current moment. I had a harder time rebuilding the D after moving Letang than moving the forwards around. Regarding Hornqvist I did find it interesting as the idea came across me when doing scenario three. We can discuss when we get to that scenario but the idea of this is intriguing:

Line 1: Zucker - Sid - Free agent that fits with these two
Line 2: Jake - Geno - Horny
Line 3: X - X - Rust

I know it puts Rust down to the third line but I think unless we move Hornqvist Rust is kind of stuck because of it...but something we can discuss when we get to that scenario :D . Which scenario do you want to examine first?

OK, so, I'm going to start by reviewing/evaluating each of your scenarios. I'll follow up with a separate post on how I would handle each of these situations.

Your scenario 1. Here are the issues that I see:
-- I do not see Poulin making the team to sit. If he makes the team, he's going to play. He may get nights off here or there, but, I don't see him as a 4th liner or healthy scratch. If he's good enough to make it, he should be top 9 player.
-- If Lafreniere is as advertised, you are in dangerous cap territory. While his salary is 925K, bonuses could add another 2.3-2.8M...which you would be over with this lineup.
-- While Minnesota makes some sense for Bjugstad, I don't think they could take McCann (who is likely 2M minimum) plus Bjugstad for Greenway. That's an add of over 6M, and they only have 16M going into next season for 6 players. I can't see them taking Bjugstad unless Penguins are retaining 50%.
-- I'm not very high on Hallander, but, I'm not giving him up just to move Johnson for a 6th rounder. I'd rather keep Johnson as a 7th than deal one of our few decent assets to get rid of him.

With scenario 1, I like Murray for Montour in a vacuum. I've made the same trade myself....but only with Letang gone. Montour is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. If you are paying him that much, he needs to be higher in the lineup and on his proper side, and so does Marino....which he can't do with Marino and Letang in front of him. I don't mind the Haula signing. Penguins have had past interest, and salary seems pretty fair. Only issue I have with Haula is he is now 29. Not a huge issue. Penguins have liked him for awhile, but, he's aged. I would still consider taking that risk.

========================================================
Scenario 2 feedback
--I don't see Jarry signing for 4 years for under 4M. Not smart for him if he is going to be a starter. Likely best for both parties for a 1-2 year deal for Jarry in the 3M range. Make Jarry prove it from Pens side, and don't lock yourself into a lower salary from Jarry side.
--I think you'd likely have to throw another 1M in AAV at Pietrangelo.
--3rd for Johnson/Hallander is a bit easier to swallow.
--Nylander for Letang is probably a bit of an overpayment. Maybe Kapanen plus a high pick or prospect would work.
--I don't see Calgary interested in Bjugstad now with his injury history. This is another deal that has been discussed previously, but time has changed the elements of this type of trade.
--Repeat of Poulin status from above. In the top 9 or not on the NHL roster. I don't see the team keeping him as an extra or 4th liner.

I think you've likely done the best/most accurate in this scenario. There are some adjustments, but the basis of these deals and signings seems mostly fair.

=========================================================
Scenario 3 feedback
--Don't see the Greenway deal working. Not enough going to MIN.
--I'm not sold on Fast. Only hit 30 points once. On pace past 2 seasons for 30 points, but has missed 10-15 games past 2 years.
--What happened to McCann in this scenario? Or Simon in any scenario?
--Similar to above, not a fan of acquiring Montour unless Letang is out of the picture.
--I really don't see enough change here to think this team is better equipped than the one that lost to the Isles and Canadians.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:49 am

Good advice. Hey I’m going to run one last scenario. I’m going to move Hornqvist instead of Tanger. What value and team would take Hornqvist?
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:09 pm

OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby thehockeyguru on Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:26 pm

FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:41 pm

Scenario #2 - Penguins draft #15 overall and trade Letang
====================================
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Letang (1M retained), RFA rights to McCann and Simon to TOR for Kapanen, Kerfoot, and 2021 2nd round pick
Murray traded to Buffalo for the RFA rights to Brandan Montour and 2021 2nd round pick
Montour signs for 4 years, 4.25M AAV
Lafferty signs 2 years, 850K AAV
Jarry signs 2 years, 3.5M AAV
TVR signs 2 years, 3M AAV

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Hornqvist
Poulin-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR

Dumo-Marino
Petterson-Montour
POJ-TVR
xJohnson, Ruhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

1.8M in cap space for injury moves, deadline, Poulin bonus earnings.
To start, I go with a young 3rd line of Poulin-Kerfoot-Kapanen to see if that can generate a spark with speed and youth.
Buffalo is said to be looking to move Montour, as Ristolainen had a good season and they are loaded at RD. A swap of arbitration eligible RFAs happens. Rutherford has had past interest in Montour.
Toronto gets a quality top RD for 2 years. Toronto is in cap trouble. They have only 16 players signed next season with only 4.5M in cap space (that includes Kapanen and Kerfoot). McCann and Simon in their place opens up another 2M or so in cap space (projected signings for McCann/Simon). Toronto is still going to have to make other moves, as both Clarkson and Horton dead contracts come off the books. They have 33M tied up in Tavares, Marner, and Matthews, plus Nylander at 6.9M (maybe you just take Nylander from them instead :D )
TVR is a slight upgrade to Ruhwedel on defense.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:44 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?

Such as? I really don't think it is as much about players as it is about usage and strategy. Me personally, I'd put unit 1 as Crosby-Hornqvist-Guentzel-Marino-Lafreniere, and unit 2 as Malkin-Poulin-Zucker-Letang-Rust with the above players.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:58 pm

Scenario #3 - Penguins draft #15 overall and keep Letang
====================================
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M
Middlestadt signed for 2 years, 1.25M AAV

Murray traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Hornqvist
McCann-Middlestadt-Poulin
Taven-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

1.5M in cap space for injuries, deadline, bonuses. Defense is improved. Still weak at center if Middlestadt doesn't pan out. You could also trade McCann, and sign Erik Haula for 3-3.5M, which puts you right up against the cap (unless you can trade Johnson instead of burying him). Both Haula and Middlestadt can play C or LW. Middlestadt also still has exemption status I believe.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby pens_CT on Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:30 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Scenario #3 - Penguins draft #15 overall and keep Letang
====================================
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M
Middlestadt signed for 2 years, 1.25M AAV

Murray traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Hornqvist
McCann-Middlestadt-Poulin
Taven-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

1.5M in cap space for injuries, deadline, bonuses. Defense is improved. Still weak at center if Middlestadt doesn't pan out. You could also trade McCann, and sign Erik Haula for 3-3.5M, which puts you right up against the cap (unless you can trade Johnson instead of burying him). Both Haula and Middlestadt can play C or LW. Middlestadt also still has exemption status I believe.



If all you can get from Buffalo for Murray in this scenario is Middlestadt then I'd turn to a team that has a gazillion of draft picks and cap space (Ottawa and Detroit) and get a 2nd round pick, and maybe another conditional 2nd/3rd round pick in 2021 instead. I'd by willing to put Blueger in as the 3C, can he be any less productive than Middlestadt? Or give McCann a longer trial in that position. Haula is interesting but he's had one really good year, and everything other season has been a 25 -35 point type of guy. Don't know how much you want to spend for a guy like that, chances are some other team will offer more.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:50 pm

pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Scenario #3 - Penguins draft #15 overall and keep Letang
====================================
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M
Middlestadt signed for 2 years, 1.25M AAV

Murray traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Malkin-Hornqvist
McCann-Middlestadt-Poulin
Taven-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

1.5M in cap space for injuries, deadline, bonuses. Defense is improved. Still weak at center if Middlestadt doesn't pan out. You could also trade McCann, and sign Erik Haula for 3-3.5M, which puts you right up against the cap (unless you can trade Johnson instead of burying him). Both Haula and Middlestadt can play C or LW. Middlestadt also still has exemption status I believe.



If all you can get from Buffalo for Murray in this scenario is Middlestadt then I'd turn to a team that has a gazillion of draft picks and cap space (Ottawa and Detroit) and get a 2nd round pick, and maybe another conditional 2nd/3rd round pick in 2021 instead. I'd by willing to put Blueger in as the 3C, can he be any less productive than Middlestadt? Or give McCann a longer trial in that position. Haula is interesting but he's had one really good year, and everything other season has been a 25 -35 point type of guy. Don't know how much you want to spend for a guy like that, chances are some other team will offer more.

I think maybe you can get a pick with Middlestadt, but I just really don't know what Murray's value is as an RFA with arbitration rights, and being a goalie, which is a hard position to judge in trades.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby thehockeyguru on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:10 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?

Such as? I really don't think it is as much about players as it is about usage and strategy. Me personally, I'd put unit 1 as Crosby-Hornqvist-Guentzel-Marino-Lafreniere, and unit 2 as Malkin-Poulin-Zucker-Letang-Rust with the above players.


Good luck telling Geno and Letang they aren't getting top PP time.

I think you need a true PP QB, which is why I'd trade Letang. Shattenkirk as a 3rd pairing PP specialist would be my preference.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby pens_CT on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:23 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?

Such as? I really don't think it is as much about players as it is about usage and strategy. Me personally, I'd put unit 1 as Crosby-Hornqvist-Guentzel-Marino-Lafreniere, and unit 2 as Malkin-Poulin-Zucker-Letang-Rust with the above players.


Good luck telling Geno and Letang they aren't getting top PP time.

I think you need a true PP QB, which is why I'd trade Letang. Shattenkirk as a 3rd pairing PP specialist would be my preference.


Shattenkirk is coming off a deal making 6.6 million, how much of a cut is he taking to be a 3rd pairing PP specialist? If you're trading Letang then you need another defensemen to play in the top 4, unless that person is coming back in a trade.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:39 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?

Such as? I really don't think it is as much about players as it is about usage and strategy. Me personally, I'd put unit 1 as Crosby-Hornqvist-Guentzel-Marino-Lafreniere, and unit 2 as Malkin-Poulin-Zucker-Letang-Rust with the above players.


Good luck telling Geno and Letang they aren't getting top PP time.

I think you need a true PP QB, which is why I'd trade Letang. Shattenkirk as a 3rd pairing PP specialist would be my preference.

Yeah, well, that's a problem with this organization right now. Deluded truth all around them.

-- No, our window isn't closed even though we've looked pathetic in the playoffs 3 years running now, and, the evidence of similar fates for Chicago, LA, and Detroit. Pfft....facts and evidence. We don't believe it.
-- We love Sid, and Geno, and Letang. They are Penguins for life, no matter if we have to be dead last in the league for 3-4 years because we wouldn't move them.
-- Jack Johnson is a solid player for us. Everyone else is wrong about Jack. He's great. Even though there is like 14 years of data showing how he drags players down, not to mention now he is 0-7 in every playoff series he has ever played in.

Way I see it, there is no "number 1 unit." If one unit is hot, you play that unit a little more that game. You also have tons of circumstances where, Sid just had a really long shift and drew the penalty. You put the Geno PP unit out to start in that case, and vice versa.

But this team likes to make easy decisions 10x more difficult then they need to be.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby pens_CT on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:54 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?

Such as? I really don't think it is as much about players as it is about usage and strategy. Me personally, I'd put unit 1 as Crosby-Hornqvist-Guentzel-Marino-Lafreniere, and unit 2 as Malkin-Poulin-Zucker-Letang-Rust with the above players.


Good luck telling Geno and Letang they aren't getting top PP time.

I think you need a true PP QB, which is why I'd trade Letang. Shattenkirk as a 3rd pairing PP specialist would be my preference.

Yeah, well, that's a problem with this organization right now. Deluded truth all around them.

-- No, our window isn't closed even though we've looked pathetic in the playoffs 3 years running now, and, the evidence of similar fates for Chicago, LA, and Detroit. Pfft....facts and evidence. We don't believe it.
-- We love Sid, and Geno, and Letang. They are Penguins for life, no matter if we have to be dead last in the league for 3-4 years because we wouldn't move them.
-- Jack Johnson is a solid player for us. Everyone else is wrong about Jack. He's great. Even though there is like 14 years of data showing how he drags players down, not to mention now he is 0-7 in every playoff series he has ever played in.

Way I see it, there is no "number 1 unit." If one unit is hot, you play that unit a little more that game. You also have tons of circumstances where, Sid just had a really long shift and drew the penalty. You put the Geno PP unit out to start in that case, and vice versa.

But this team likes to make easy decisions 10x more difficult then they need to be.


I can see trading Letang, so long as you can add another RHD to play top 4 minutes. Malkin, who are you replacing him with? If the objective is to rebuild for 3 to 4 years down the road that's one thing. If not I'd like to see a proposed Malkin trade that makes this team better next season.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby KG on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:57 pm

pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:OK, so here are my scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Penguins land Lafreniere.
========================
Penguins draft Lafreniere 1st overall
Sheary, Schultz, and Marleau leave as UFAs
Rights to Jared McCann and Juuso Riikola are traded at the draft to Detroit for 2020 EDM 2nd round pick.
Nick Bjugstad is bought out.

Matt Murray is traded to Buffalo for Casey Middlestadt
Penguins sign TJ Brodie for 4M AAV for 3 years.
Penguins sign Lafferty 850K AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Jarry 3.5M AAV for 2 years.
Penguins sign Simon 1.25M AAV for 2 years.
Jack Johnson is buried in the AHL, saving the team 1.025M

Your lineup looks like this:

Lafreniere-Crosby-Rust
Guentzel-Malkin-Hornqvist
Zucker-Middlestadt-Poulin
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty
xZAR, Simon

Dumo-Letang
Petterson-Marino
POJ-Brodie
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

3.3M in cap space remaining, which covers some injury space/ trade deadline space / Lafreniere or Poulin bonus earnings space.
I look for Poulin, if he is producing, to swap with Hornqvist at some point during the season.
Brodie is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. You ask him to take a slight paycut, and he is insurance for injuries or if Marino falters.
Middlestadt has been a bust to this point in his career for an 8th overall pick, but, he is still only 21 and has potential. If he pans out as a 3C, that helps the Penguins, but, in theory, he still could pan out to be a 2C....which helps the Penguins move on from Malkin in 2 years. This team has Lafreniere, Poulin, Middlestadt, Marino, Pettersson, POJ, and Lafferty all as young guys who have not won a cup. plus Zucker and Brodie. That's about half the lineup.


No moves to help fix the PP?

Such as? I really don't think it is as much about players as it is about usage and strategy. Me personally, I'd put unit 1 as Crosby-Hornqvist-Guentzel-Marino-Lafreniere, and unit 2 as Malkin-Poulin-Zucker-Letang-Rust with the above players.


Good luck telling Geno and Letang they aren't getting top PP time.

I think you need a true PP QB, which is why I'd trade Letang. Shattenkirk as a 3rd pairing PP specialist would be my preference.


Shattenkirk is coming off a deal making 6.6 million, how much of a cut is he taking to be a 3rd pairing PP specialist? If you're trading Letang then you need another defensemen to play in the top 4, unless that person is coming back in a trade.


Shattenkirk was bought out by the Rangers and that big deal. He signed a 1 year deal worth $1.75Mill from Tampa. Not sure what the market will be for him this off season but I’m sure he could help the PP if he signs for a similar priced deal.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby thehockeyguru on Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:25 pm

KG is correct, he signed a "prove it" deal with TB, I'm not sure what he'll look for this off season but if you can move Letang and get a guy like TJ Brodie, Shattenkirk will be nice PP option.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:59 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:KG is correct, he signed a "prove it" deal with TB, I'm not sure what he'll look for this off season but if you can move Letang and get a guy like TJ Brodie, Shattenkirk will be nice PP option.

He had 1 PPG this year. I don't think he "proved it." The last time he had a decent PPG output was the Penguins last Cup year. He had 8 PPG that season. I'd pass on Shat.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:22 pm

pens_CT wrote:I can see trading Letang, so long as you can add another RHD to play top 4 minutes. Malkin, who are you replacing him with? If the objective is to rebuild for 3 to 4 years down the road that's one thing. If not I'd like to see a proposed Malkin trade that makes this team better next season.

There are a lot of options available if Letang were to be traded
--Pietrangelo and Barrie are RD UFAs.
--Buffalo has a glut of RD, and Montour (RFA) appears to be the current odd man out after Ristolainen had a better year this year.
--Krug and TJ Brodie (LD) are UFA.

Pietrangelo could replace Letang short term.
Rutherford appears to believe Marino will be the eventual #1 on this team, but next year might be too soon.
Next year there won't be as many available top 4 d-men, and, Letang would also be on an expiring contract next summer which would deflate his trade value. If you are going to look to trade Letang, this would be the year to do it. Only other option would be if next season, this team is bad enough to be sellers and considers moving Letang at the deadline for a 1st round and prospect....but that still leaves the Penguins with a hole.

Personally, IF the Penguins moved Letang, I would want to see Pietrangelo, Barrie, or Montour as the replacement...whether Marino is 1st pair or 2nd pair.

With Malkin, I really haven't looked at possible landing spots for him. I think part of the problem is, there were rumors a year or two ago about him being dealt. Those ships have sailed. Players have moved on to other teams, or have aged. Malkin to Florida for Trocheck plus made the most sense, but, Trocheck has moved on, and Florida has nothing else I would want in return that would help us.

That is another problem with trades...you likely aren't going to magically turn a 34 year old center into a 24 year old quality center. You'd almost need to make 2 trades....trade Letang to team A for Center help, and Malkin to team B for defensive help.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby thehockeyguru on Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:56 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:KG is correct, he signed a "prove it" deal with TB, I'm not sure what he'll look for this off season but if you can move Letang and get a guy like TJ Brodie, Shattenkirk will be nice PP option.

He had 1 PPG this year. I don't think he "proved it." The last time he had a decent PPG output was the Penguins last Cup year. He had 8 PPG that season. I'd pass on Shat.


Pietrangelo had 6 PP goals, I'd be all for signing him but he'll probably get 7yrs 8M per similar to what Carlson got.

Thats too rich for me and you'd also have to trade Letang
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby KG on Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:07 pm

I could see the Pens trying to go the same route Chicago has gone. Keep the core of Toews, Kane, Keith together and rebuild around that. Ours being Sid, Geno, Letang. Although it’s not like Chicago has been anything great the last few years and is only in because of the expanded format. So who knows!

I like the idea of adding Haula at 3C. I also like the idea of moving Murray for Montaur +. Letang, Dumo, Marino, Montaur is a real solid top 4 and more importantly it allows MP to go to the 3rd pairing, hopefully with a POJ.

Forward wise, I could see Horny being moved potentially. Warrior, would hate to see him leave, we need more of him, but I think they may look to move a piece or two.

All of this said, I think a coaching change is the most pressing need and the one that would generate the most impact.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:37 pm

KG wrote:I could see the Pens trying to go the same route Chicago has gone. Keep the core of Toews, Kane, Keith together and rebuild around that. Ours being Sid, Geno, Letang. Although it’s not like Chicago has been anything great the last few years and is only in because of the expanded format. So who knows!

I like the idea of adding Haula at 3C. I also like the idea of moving Murray for Montaur +. Letang, Dumo, Marino, Montaur is a real solid top 4 and more importantly it allows MP to go to the 3rd pairing, hopefully with a POJ.

Forward wise, I could see Horny being moved potentially. Warrior, would hate to see him leave, we need more of him, but I think they may look to move a piece or two.

All of this said, I think a coaching change is the most pressing need and the one that would generate the most impact.

I'm just going to be very blunt here, because I think a lot of Penguins fans right now are wearing rose-colored glasses. This is not directed at any poster here, but a general, blunt statement:

What if the core is the problem?

They got their 3 Cups, including 2 back to back. Look at the amount of roster turnover that has occurred around the core. Jarry, DeSmith, Johnson, Pettersson, Marino, Blueger, Tanev, Zucker, McCann, Bjugstad, Simon, Marleau. That's 10-12 players that had zero impact on winning the last Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh. And these last 3 years, the playoff failures boil down to one of 3 things:

1. We've brought in all the wrong players to surround the core.
2. The coaching has failed the core.
3. The core itself has failed.

I'm heavily leaning towards #3, with a side of #2. Whether it's age, injury, motivation, or simply the inability to dominate games at this point of their careers, I don't think there are enough people questioning the core. My god, look at all Sid/Geno/Letang have done. It can't be them. You can't accuse them. How dare you??? You aren't a fan. You're selfish. Blah blah blah blah.

The facts as I see...Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have failed to dominate during the playoffs the last 3 years running. Regular season is one thing. They've been great during the regular season. They did the heavy lifting part to get the team to the playoffs. But once the playoffs start, all 3 have been ordinary. And when those 3 are ordinary, this team is going nowhere.....as evidence the last 3 years.

That's my main motivation for looking at trading Malkin and Letang. Love those guys, but, I'm team first. I loved Mario Lemieux as a player but if he said he wanted to lace them up for one more season next year, I'd be totally against it. I don't want to see Malkin and Letang hang around if we know this team can't advance with them, but, because fans and management want them to retire as Penguins at all costs. I can understand the potential impact to ticket sales, but, this team can't be run because we like what X player did 5 years ago and we don't want to hurt their feelings telling them they can no longer produce at that level.

Sullivan and coaching is partly to blame as well. I see some of the stubbornness that got Bylsma fired in Mike Sullivan. I see some questionable roster decisions, but, to me, I see more failed execution than outright coaching/strategy failures.

As stated before, we've seen the team ignore piles of facts on Jack Johnson....when they signed him, when they kept playing him. There are oodles of data about how he drags his teammates down...years worth....over a decade worth, but they still signed him and are still playing him. Same goes for his 0-7 playoff series record.

Sullivan and Rutherford are still touting the core's window is opened. They may be yelling that for the next two years into they run into a brick wall with the words LA, DETROIT, and CHICAGO painted on said wall.

======================
KG, as to your defenseman points...Montour is a RD, so if you are keeping Letang, either Montour is an overpaid 3rd pairing RD or he is forced to play his off-side. And, seeing how this team has stuck to Jack Johnson, I doubt you are convincing Sully or Rutherford that Marcus Pettersson is not a top 4 defenseman. POJ is also a LD, so he and Pettersson wouldn't work out on the 3rd pairing together.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby KG on Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:58 pm

Thanks for the clarity FLP! I am just trying hard to get MP on the 3rd D pairing and get some depth.

I’m sure you could appreciate that :)
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby pens_CT on Sun Aug 09, 2020 8:41 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
KG wrote:I could see the Pens trying to go the same route Chicago has gone. Keep the core of Toews, Kane, Keith together and rebuild around that. Ours being Sid, Geno, Letang. Although it’s not like Chicago has been anything great the last few years and is only in because of the expanded format. So who knows!

I like the idea of adding Haula at 3C. I also like the idea of moving Murray for Montaur +. Letang, Dumo, Marino, Montaur is a real solid top 4 and more importantly it allows MP to go to the 3rd pairing, hopefully with a POJ.

Forward wise, I could see Horny being moved potentially. Warrior, would hate to see him leave, we need more of him, but I think they may look to move a piece or two.

All of this said, I think a coaching change is the most pressing need and the one that would generate the most impact.

I'm just going to be very blunt here, because I think a lot of Penguins fans right now are wearing rose-colored glasses. This is not directed at any poster here, but a general, blunt statement:

What if the core is the problem?

They got their 3 Cups, including 2 back to back. Look at the amount of roster turnover that has occurred around the core. Jarry, DeSmith, Johnson, Pettersson, Marino, Blueger, Tanev, Zucker, McCann, Bjugstad, Simon, Marleau. That's 10-12 players that had zero impact on winning the last Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh. And these last 3 years, the playoff failures boil down to one of 3 things:

1. We've brought in all the wrong players to surround the core.
2. The coaching has failed the core.
3. The core itself has failed.

I'm heavily leaning towards #3, with a side of #2. Whether it's age, injury, motivation, or simply the inability to dominate games at this point of their careers, I don't think there are enough people questioning the core. My god, look at all Sid/Geno/Letang have done. It can't be them. You can't accuse them. How dare you??? You aren't a fan. You're selfish. Blah blah blah blah.

The facts as I see...Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have failed to dominate during the playoffs the last 3 years running. Regular season is one thing. They've been great during the regular season. They did the heavy lifting part to get the team to the playoffs. But once the playoffs start, all 3 have been ordinary. And when those 3 are ordinary, this team is going nowhere.....as evidence the last 3 years.

That's my main motivation for looking at trading Malkin and Letang. Love those guys, but, I'm team first. I loved Mario Lemieux as a player but if he said he wanted to lace them up for one more season next year, I'd be totally against it. I don't want to see Malkin and Letang hang around if we know this team can't advance with them, but, because fans and management want them to retire as Penguins at all costs. I can understand the potential impact to ticket sales, but, this team can't be run because we like what X player did 5 years ago and we don't want to hurt their feelings telling them they can no longer produce at that level.

Sullivan and coaching is partly to blame as well. I see some of the stubbornness that got Bylsma fired in Mike Sullivan. I see some questionable roster decisions, but, to me, I see more failed execution than outright coaching/strategy failures.

As stated before, we've seen the team ignore piles of facts on Jack Johnson....when they signed him, when they kept playing him. There are oodles of data about how he drags his teammates down...years worth....over a decade worth, but they still signed him and are still playing him. Same goes for his 0-7 playoff series record.

Sullivan and Rutherford are still touting the core's window is opened. They may be yelling that for the next two years into they run into a brick wall with the words LA, DETROIT, and CHICAGO painted on said wall.

======================
KG, as to your defenseman points...Montour is a RD, so if you are keeping Letang, either Montour is an overpaid 3rd pairing RD or he is forced to play his off-side. And, seeing how this team has stuck to Jack Johnson, I doubt you are convincing Sully or Rutherford that Marcus Pettersson is not a top 4 defenseman. POJ is also a LD, so he and Pettersson wouldn't work out on the 3rd pairing together.


Well if its indeed number 3 and the core is failing then you have issues. You can bring in another coach to swear at them during practice, but if they're comfortable with what they've accomplished then I don't see another coach bringing this team back to the level of competing for a cup. This team was built on 87 & 71 leading the charge, and whether its motivation or age that prevents that from happening its am serious issue. They have too many cap dollars invested on 87 & 71 for them only to play a supporting role on this team. I can see them moving Letang, but if you're moving 71 then I think 87 will want to be the next player out the door.
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