Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby ville5 on Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:29 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:KG is correct, he signed a "prove it" deal with TB, I'm not sure what he'll look for this off season but if you can move Letang and get a guy like TJ Brodie, Shattenkirk will be nice PP option.

He had 1 PPG this year. I don't think he "proved it." The last time he had a decent PPG output was the Penguins last Cup year. He had 8 PPG that season. I'd pass on Shat.

If Shattenkirk isn't the answer, Montour certainly isn't either. He has 1 PPG in his last 136 games. And he only has 7 PPPs in those 136. For $3.39 million RFA? Soon to be over $4 mil.? Pass.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby KG on Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:29 pm

I can definitely see Toronto having big interest in Letang, especially after this playoff failure by Toronto.

Maybe JR can get Kapanen back?

I like your thinking FLP of getting Kerfoot too. I don’t want to move McCann yet. He’s young and skilled, we need more of that.

Very intrigued for what this off season will bring.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:03 pm

Random question. What if we do a package where we send Murray and Letang to the Leafs. What would a return look like?
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:07 pm

ville5 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:KG is correct, he signed a "prove it" deal with TB, I'm not sure what he'll look for this off season but if you can move Letang and get a guy like TJ Brodie, Shattenkirk will be nice PP option.

He had 1 PPG this year. I don't think he "proved it." The last time he had a decent PPG output was the Penguins last Cup year. He had 8 PPG that season. I'd pass on Shat.

If Shattenkirk isn't the answer, Montour certainly isn't either. He has 1 PPG in his last 136 games. And he only has 7 PPPs in those 136. For $3.39 million RFA? Soon to be over $4 mil.? Pass.

I don't have a problem with Montour. Shattenkirk was brought up for his ability to be a PP specialist. I don't really want that type of d-man here. He's got to be good in other areas. Shattenkirk improved in other areas, but his PP ability wasn't there. So, I had no interest in Shattenkirk.

Montour is a bit younger. He played well in Anaheim. He didn't play as well in Buffalo. Really hard to judge Buffalo defensemen with how that team has played in past seasons. I rolled with Montour over Shatenkirk.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:18 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Random question. What if we do a package where we send Murray and Letang to the Leafs. What would a return look like?

Toronto's problem is:
--Matthews 11.6M
--Tavares 11M
--Marner 10.8M
--Nylander 6.9M

40M in AAV on FOUR PLAYERS. 50% of their cap on FOUR PLAYERS. And that team was just bounced from the playoffs. AND they are losing 10.5M in LTIR space from Horton and Clarkson contracts finally expiring. They are in trouble for next season.

The Leafs could not take Murray unless they moved Andersen somewhere else. Even then, any trades they make really need to be a net AAV loss or getting multiple players for same AAV cost. Even my proposed trade of Letang for Kapanen and Kerfoot is a problem, because you are taking 2 players off their roster, and adding one back for the same AAV. That will make fielding a full team even harder for them.

I don't see how Toronto keeps all 4 of the players listed above for next season.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Penguins Knight on Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:23 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Montour is a bit younger. He played well in Anaheim. He didn't play as well in Buffalo. Really hard to judge Buffalo defensemen with how that team has played in past seasons. I rolled with Montour over Shatenkirk.


The Sabres need to upgrade their corps of defensemen. Dahlin, Montour, and Ristolainen are the legitimate defensemen they have. Pilut's rights could be available as he bailed out of an underachieving team.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:30 pm

pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
KG wrote:I could see the Pens trying to go the same route Chicago has gone. Keep the core of Toews, Kane, Keith together and rebuild around that. Ours being Sid, Geno, Letang. Although it’s not like Chicago has been anything great the last few years and is only in because of the expanded format. So who knows!

I like the idea of adding Haula at 3C. I also like the idea of moving Murray for Montaur +. Letang, Dumo, Marino, Montaur is a real solid top 4 and more importantly it allows MP to go to the 3rd pairing, hopefully with a POJ.

Forward wise, I could see Horny being moved potentially. Warrior, would hate to see him leave, we need more of him, but I think they may look to move a piece or two.

All of this said, I think a coaching change is the most pressing need and the one that would generate the most impact.

I'm just going to be very blunt here, because I think a lot of Penguins fans right now are wearing rose-colored glasses. This is not directed at any poster here, but a general, blunt statement:

What if the core is the problem?

They got their 3 Cups, including 2 back to back. Look at the amount of roster turnover that has occurred around the core. Jarry, DeSmith, Johnson, Pettersson, Marino, Blueger, Tanev, Zucker, McCann, Bjugstad, Simon, Marleau. That's 10-12 players that had zero impact on winning the last Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh. And these last 3 years, the playoff failures boil down to one of 3 things:

1. We've brought in all the wrong players to surround the core.
2. The coaching has failed the core.
3. The core itself has failed.

I'm heavily leaning towards #3, with a side of #2. Whether it's age, injury, motivation, or simply the inability to dominate games at this point of their careers, I don't think there are enough people questioning the core. My god, look at all Sid/Geno/Letang have done. It can't be them. You can't accuse them. How dare you??? You aren't a fan. You're selfish. Blah blah blah blah.

The facts as I see...Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have failed to dominate during the playoffs the last 3 years running. Regular season is one thing. They've been great during the regular season. They did the heavy lifting part to get the team to the playoffs. But once the playoffs start, all 3 have been ordinary. And when those 3 are ordinary, this team is going nowhere.....as evidence the last 3 years.

That's my main motivation for looking at trading Malkin and Letang. Love those guys, but, I'm team first. I loved Mario Lemieux as a player but if he said he wanted to lace them up for one more season next year, I'd be totally against it. I don't want to see Malkin and Letang hang around if we know this team can't advance with them, but, because fans and management want them to retire as Penguins at all costs. I can understand the potential impact to ticket sales, but, this team can't be run because we like what X player did 5 years ago and we don't want to hurt their feelings telling them they can no longer produce at that level.

Sullivan and coaching is partly to blame as well. I see some of the stubbornness that got Bylsma fired in Mike Sullivan. I see some questionable roster decisions, but, to me, I see more failed execution than outright coaching/strategy failures.

As stated before, we've seen the team ignore piles of facts on Jack Johnson....when they signed him, when they kept playing him. There are oodles of data about how he drags his teammates down...years worth....over a decade worth, but they still signed him and are still playing him. Same goes for his 0-7 playoff series record.

Sullivan and Rutherford are still touting the core's window is opened. They may be yelling that for the next two years into they run into a brick wall with the words LA, DETROIT, and CHICAGO painted on said wall.

======================
KG, as to your defenseman points...Montour is a RD, so if you are keeping Letang, either Montour is an overpaid 3rd pairing RD or he is forced to play his off-side. And, seeing how this team has stuck to Jack Johnson, I doubt you are convincing Sully or Rutherford that Marcus Pettersson is not a top 4 defenseman. POJ is also a LD, so he and Pettersson wouldn't work out on the 3rd pairing together.


Well if its indeed number 3 and the core is failing then you have issues. You can bring in another coach to swear at them during practice, but if they're comfortable with what they've accomplished then I don't see another coach bringing this team back to the level of competing for a cup. This team was built on 87 & 71 leading the charge, and whether its motivation or age that prevents that from happening its am serious issue. They have too many cap dollars invested on 87 & 71 for them only to play a supporting role on this team. I can see them moving Letang, but if you're moving 71 then I think 87 will want to be the next player out the door.

I see Crosby as the only true lifetime Penguin in that group. I strongly believe his skills will hold up in his late 30's and even early 40's if he wanted to play that long. As I said in another post, I could see Crosby at 40 years old as a solid 3C who can play a strong defensive game and still put up 40-50 points a season.

I'm going to go a bit crazy here, but, what if between now and Malkin's contract expiring in 2 years all of the following happens. Could you see Sid being "upset" with what he has around him?

--Penguins win draft lottery and get Lafreniere
--Poulin makes club and plays to his potential (50-60 point production at least)
--Murray, Letang, McCann, and Simon are shipped out, and the net return is Nylander and Montour and some extra 3rd/4th round picks
--Bjugstad and Johnson are moved off the books
--Marino gets upgraded to #1 and produces.
--Malkin walks away as a UFA and returns to Russia

Lafreniere-Crosby-Poulin
Guentzel-Nylander-Rust
Zucker-Haula-Hornqvist
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty

Dumo-Marino
Pettersson-Montour
POJ-TVR

Jarry
DeSmith
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:39 pm

Penguins Knight wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Montour is a bit younger. He played well in Anaheim. He didn't play as well in Buffalo. Really hard to judge Buffalo defensemen with how that team has played in past seasons. I rolled with Montour over Shatenkirk.


The Sabres need to upgrade their corps of defensemen. Dahlin, Montour, and Ristolainen are the legitimate defensemen they have. Pilut's rights could be available as he bailed out of an underachieving team.

The Sabres have a decent defensive corps, but, they have too many overlapping players that they play in the wrong role.

--McCabe has been playing as a middle pairing guy. He's more of a 4/5 guy...a bit of a stretch to be playing top 4 every night, but would be a strong 3rd pairing guy.
--Montour didn't work out in season 1
--Ristolainen was only a -2 on the season, only the 2nd time in his career he hasn't been a double digit minus. He's usually somewhere between -25 to -40. He is more of a 2/3 guy...can't handle 1st pairing minutes every night, but would be a strong 2nd pairing guy.
--Then they have Henri Jokiharju, who has top 4 potential. Probably needs another season on bottom pair, but, he's also RD, so...where do you put Jokiharju and Ristolainen.
--They will likely move on from Colin Miller, Brandon Montour, and Pilut went over to the KHL.

Dahlin-X
X-Ristolainen
McCabe-Jokiharju

I could see them going after Barrie or Pietrangelo, and then maybe a TJ Brodie or other 2nd pairing capable LD.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Hatrick on Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:22 am

FLPensFan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
KG wrote:I could see the Pens trying to go the same route Chicago has gone. Keep the core of Toews, Kane, Keith together and rebuild around that. Ours being Sid, Geno, Letang. Although it’s not like Chicago has been anything great the last few years and is only in because of the expanded format. So who knows!

I like the idea of adding Haula at 3C. I also like the idea of moving Murray for Montaur +. Letang, Dumo, Marino, Montaur is a real solid top 4 and more importantly it allows MP to go to the 3rd pairing, hopefully with a POJ.

Forward wise, I could see Horny being moved potentially. Warrior, would hate to see him leave, we need more of him, but I think they may look to move a piece or two.

All of this said, I think a coaching change is the most pressing need and the one that would generate the most impact.

I'm just going to be very blunt here, because I think a lot of Penguins fans right now are wearing rose-colored glasses. This is not directed at any poster here, but a general, blunt statement:

What if the core is the problem?

They got their 3 Cups, including 2 back to back. Look at the amount of roster turnover that has occurred around the core. Jarry, DeSmith, Johnson, Pettersson, Marino, Blueger, Tanev, Zucker, McCann, Bjugstad, Simon, Marleau. That's 10-12 players that had zero impact on winning the last Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh. And these last 3 years, the playoff failures boil down to one of 3 things:

1. We've brought in all the wrong players to surround the core.
2. The coaching has failed the core.
3. The core itself has failed.

I'm heavily leaning towards #3, with a side of #2. Whether it's age, injury, motivation, or simply the inability to dominate games at this point of their careers, I don't think there are enough people questioning the core. My god, look at all Sid/Geno/Letang have done. It can't be them. You can't accuse them. How dare you??? You aren't a fan. You're selfish. Blah blah blah blah.

The facts as I see...Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have failed to dominate during the playoffs the last 3 years running. Regular season is one thing. They've been great during the regular season. They did the heavy lifting part to get the team to the playoffs. But once the playoffs start, all 3 have been ordinary. And when those 3 are ordinary, this team is going nowhere.....as evidence the last 3 years.

That's my main motivation for looking at trading Malkin and Letang. Love those guys, but, I'm team first. I loved Mario Lemieux as a player but if he said he wanted to lace them up for one more season next year, I'd be totally against it. I don't want to see Malkin and Letang hang around if we know this team can't advance with them, but, because fans and management want them to retire as Penguins at all costs. I can understand the potential impact to ticket sales, but, this team can't be run because we like what X player did 5 years ago and we don't want to hurt their feelings telling them they can no longer produce at that level.

Sullivan and coaching is partly to blame as well. I see some of the stubbornness that got Bylsma fired in Mike Sullivan. I see some questionable roster decisions, but, to me, I see more failed execution than outright coaching/strategy failures.

As stated before, we've seen the team ignore piles of facts on Jack Johnson....when they signed him, when they kept playing him. There are oodles of data about how he drags his teammates down...years worth....over a decade worth, but they still signed him and are still playing him. Same goes for his 0-7 playoff series record.

Sullivan and Rutherford are still touting the core's window is opened. They may be yelling that for the next two years into they run into a brick wall with the words LA, DETROIT, and CHICAGO painted on said wall.

======================
KG, as to your defenseman points...Montour is a RD, so if you are keeping Letang, either Montour is an overpaid 3rd pairing RD or he is forced to play his off-side. And, seeing how this team has stuck to Jack Johnson, I doubt you are convincing Sully or Rutherford that Marcus Pettersson is not a top 4 defenseman. POJ is also a LD, so he and Pettersson wouldn't work out on the 3rd pairing together.


Well if its indeed number 3 and the core is failing then you have issues. You can bring in another coach to swear at them during practice, but if they're comfortable with what they've accomplished then I don't see another coach bringing this team back to the level of competing for a cup. This team was built on 87 & 71 leading the charge, and whether its motivation or age that prevents that from happening its am serious issue. They have too many cap dollars invested on 87 & 71 for them only to play a supporting role on this team. I can see them moving Letang, but if you're moving 71 then I think 87 will want to be the next player out the door.

I see Crosby as the only true lifetime Penguin in that group. I strongly believe his skills will hold up in his late 30's and even early 40's if he wanted to play that long. As I said in another post, I could see Crosby at 40 years old as a solid 3C who can play a strong defensive game and still put up 40-50 points a season.

I'm going to go a bit crazy here, but, what if between now and Malkin's contract expiring in 2 years all of the following happens. Could you see Sid being "upset" with what he has around him?

--Penguins win draft lottery and get Lafreniere
--Poulin makes club and plays to his potential (50-60 point production at least)
--Murray, Letang, McCann, and Simon are shipped out, and the net return is Nylander and Montour and some extra 3rd/4th round picks
--Bjugstad and Johnson are moved off the books
--Marino gets upgraded to #1 and produces.
--Malkin walks away as a UFA and returns to Russia

Lafreniere-Crosby-Poulin
Guentzel-Nylander-Rust
Zucker-Haula-Hornqvist
Tanev-Blueger-Lafferty

Dumo-Marino
Pettersson-Montour
POJ-TVR

Jarry
DeSmith

If that all happens by the end of Malkins contract I don't think Sid would have a reason to be upset at all. However I don't think that's necessarily the same thing as trading Malkin. If Malkin walks away on his on that is his doing not the team, if they trade him not only is that the team pushing him out its somewhat of a signal of "rebuild" its hard to make a win now hockey trade by getting rid of Malkin. (also side note, even if the rest don't come true those first two things would be fantastic and set the team up to win to extend the window with Sid still on the team.)
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby KG on Mon Aug 10, 2020 7:58 am

FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Random question. What if we do a package where we send Murray and Letang to the Leafs. What would a return look like?

Toronto's problem is:
--Matthews 11.6M
--Tavares 11M
--Marner 10.8M
--Nylander 6.9M

40M in AAV on FOUR PLAYERS. 50% of their cap on FOUR PLAYERS. And that team was just bounced from the playoffs. AND they are losing 10.5M in LTIR space from Horton and Clarkson contracts finally expiring. They are in trouble for next season.

The Leafs could not take Murray unless they moved Andersen somewhere else. Even then, any trades they make really need to be a net AAV loss or getting multiple players for same AAV cost. Even my proposed trade of Letang for Kapanen and Kerfoot is a problem, because you are taking 2 players off their roster, and adding one back for the same AAV. That will make fielding a full team even harder for them.

I don't see how Toronto keeps all 4 of the players listed above for next season.


I can’t speak much to the cap situation for Toronto but fans want big changes I was reading. Nylander they want gone and Kapanen.

Could definitely see talks of a blockbuster with Toronto for Letang and Murray. Anderson has 2 years left I think at $5mill per. So they would need to move him too. Easier said than done I assume.

But Toronto has a lot of what we need. Youth and skill.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:18 am

I'd want Kapanen back, not sure what it would take though.

I'd love to see Kapanen on Sid's RW and Zucker on his LW
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby 100565 on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:34 am

Kudos to all of you for caring right now. That was a deflating loss. Not simply due to the loss, but the total lack of effort ala last year.

I start the offseason removing Sully and Recchi. Then, JJ....revamp the 3rd pairing.

The Flyers are playing great hockey with DEREK GRANT as 3C. The Pens have more talent; much more.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Wyopen on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:52 am

Can current teams out of the playoffs make trades amongst themselves, or do they have to wait till the end of the playoffs?
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Ericf on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:53 am

If there’s a trade with Toronto it’s going to have to be salary neutral. I could see them interested perhaps in Letang ($7.5 mil with $500-600k retained) for Nylander. Nylander is a right shot which we need: Jake-Sid-Nylander...we may need to throw in a pick or prospect due to differences in contract term and age. But again, I don’t see how that helps the Pens unless they’re signing a top 4 RD in free agency, which may be costly. We’d also have to trade a forward with some salary like Horny, who has a NMC. I personally don’t think trading Letang benefits the Pens unless they can land a good top 4 RD replacement. You need to know that in advance before you trade him
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:58 am

FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Ok here is the three scenarios I mentioned before:

Scenario 1: We win Alex L lottery:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825814

Scenario 2: We lose lottery and move Letang:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825865

Scenario 3: We lose lottery and no core player moved:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825930

Doing Scenario 1 was seamless as salary cap was always there to make moves. Scenario 2 was hardest as it is difficult to find value for Letang. Scenario 3 which is honestly the most likely scenario in reality was difficult with moving JJ/Bjustad/Murray. One other thing I will point out was I made it a goal in all three to revamp line 3. I have two thoughts on line 3 regarding the roster:

- Line 4 of ZAR - Teddy - Tanev could bump to line 3 and than replace line 4 with a combo of Poulin/X/X
- Other thought was finding a place for Hornqvist is difficult on this team at this current moment. I had a harder time rebuilding the D after moving Letang than moving the forwards around. Regarding Hornqvist I did find it interesting as the idea came across me when doing scenario three. We can discuss when we get to that scenario but the idea of this is intriguing:

Line 1: Zucker - Sid - Free agent that fits with these two
Line 2: Jake - Geno - Horny
Line 3: X - X - Rust

I know it puts Rust down to the third line but I think unless we move Hornqvist Rust is kind of stuck because of it...but something we can discuss when we get to that scenario :D . Which scenario do you want to examine first?

OK, so, I'm going to start by reviewing/evaluating each of your scenarios. I'll follow up with a separate post on how I would handle each of these situations.

Your scenario 1. Here are the issues that I see:
-- I do not see Poulin making the team to sit. If he makes the team, he's going to play. He may get nights off here or there, but, I don't see him as a 4th liner or healthy scratch. If he's good enough to make it, he should be top 9 player.
-- If Lafreniere is as advertised, you are in dangerous cap territory. While his salary is 925K, bonuses could add another 2.3-2.8M...which you would be over with this lineup.
-- While Minnesota makes some sense for Bjugstad, I don't think they could take McCann (who is likely 2M minimum) plus Bjugstad for Greenway. That's an add of over 6M, and they only have 16M going into next season for 6 players. I can't see them taking Bjugstad unless Penguins are retaining 50%.
-- I'm not very high on Hallander, but, I'm not giving him up just to move Johnson for a 6th rounder. I'd rather keep Johnson as a 7th than deal one of our few decent assets to get rid of him.

With scenario 1, I like Murray for Montour in a vacuum. I've made the same trade myself....but only with Letang gone. Montour is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. If you are paying him that much, he needs to be higher in the lineup and on his proper side, and so does Marino....which he can't do with Marino and Letang in front of him. I don't mind the Haula signing. Penguins have had past interest, and salary seems pretty fair. Only issue I have with Haula is he is now 29. Not a huge issue. Penguins have liked him for awhile, but, he's aged. I would still consider taking that risk.

========================================================
Scenario 2 feedback
--I don't see Jarry signing for 4 years for under 4M. Not smart for him if he is going to be a starter. Likely best for both parties for a 1-2 year deal for Jarry in the 3M range. Make Jarry prove it from Pens side, and don't lock yourself into a lower salary from Jarry side.
--I think you'd likely have to throw another 1M in AAV at Pietrangelo.
--3rd for Johnson/Hallander is a bit easier to swallow.
--Nylander for Letang is probably a bit of an overpayment. Maybe Kapanen plus a high pick or prospect would work.
--I don't see Calgary interested in Bjugstad now with his injury history. This is another deal that has been discussed previously, but time has changed the elements of this type of trade.
--Repeat of Poulin status from above. In the top 9 or not on the NHL roster. I don't see the team keeping him as an extra or 4th liner.

I think you've likely done the best/most accurate in this scenario. There are some adjustments, but the basis of these deals and signings seems mostly fair.

=========================================================
Scenario 3 feedback
--Don't see the Greenway deal working. Not enough going to MIN.
--I'm not sold on Fast. Only hit 30 points once. On pace past 2 seasons for 30 points, but has missed 10-15 games past 2 years.
--What happened to McCann in this scenario? Or Simon in any scenario?
--Similar to above, not a fan of acquiring Montour unless Letang is out of the picture.
--I really don't see enough change here to think this team is better equipped than the one that lost to the Isles and Canadians.


Ok lets work on Scenario 2 first. Sense on the board seems to be that Toronto could be a good trade partner for us in the summer. We know they have what we need and we have some of what they may want. I like the idea of trading both Murray + Letang to them. Why not this?

Pens Send:
Murray
Letang

Toronto Send:
Kappanen
Kerefoot

This would check off RW for Sid and 3C. With this one move we would have the following before other moves:
Zucker - Sid - Kappy
Jake - Geno - Rust/Horny
Poulin - Kerefoot - Rust/Horny
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev

DP 1: Dumo - Marino
DP 2: FA - Petterson
DP 3: Ruhwedel - FA/POJ
Extra: FA

Obviously from here we'd have to acquire some D. I think moving Letang would give us the move of acquiring a D man in FA. Say we sign Tyson Barrie and trade Bjustad for Pateryn. We could have this:

DP 1: Dumo - Marino
DP 2: Barrie - Petterson
DP 3: Pateryn -Ruhwedel/POJ

Just spitballing here though...lets discuss and I will edit the trade on Scenario 2 and repost.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby pens_CT on Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:05 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Ok here is the three scenarios I mentioned before:

Scenario 1: We win Alex L lottery:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825814

Scenario 2: We lose lottery and move Letang:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825865

Scenario 3: We lose lottery and no core player moved:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825930

Doing Scenario 1 was seamless as salary cap was always there to make moves. Scenario 2 was hardest as it is difficult to find value for Letang. Scenario 3 which is honestly the most likely scenario in reality was difficult with moving JJ/Bjustad/Murray. One other thing I will point out was I made it a goal in all three to revamp line 3. I have two thoughts on line 3 regarding the roster:

- Line 4 of ZAR - Teddy - Tanev could bump to line 3 and than replace line 4 with a combo of Poulin/X/X
- Other thought was finding a place for Hornqvist is difficult on this team at this current moment. I had a harder time rebuilding the D after moving Letang than moving the forwards around. Regarding Hornqvist I did find it interesting as the idea came across me when doing scenario three. We can discuss when we get to that scenario but the idea of this is intriguing:

Line 1: Zucker - Sid - Free agent that fits with these two
Line 2: Jake - Geno - Horny
Line 3: X - X - Rust

I know it puts Rust down to the third line but I think unless we move Hornqvist Rust is kind of stuck because of it...but something we can discuss when we get to that scenario :D . Which scenario do you want to examine first?

OK, so, I'm going to start by reviewing/evaluating each of your scenarios. I'll follow up with a separate post on how I would handle each of these situations.

Your scenario 1. Here are the issues that I see:
-- I do not see Poulin making the team to sit. If he makes the team, he's going to play. He may get nights off here or there, but, I don't see him as a 4th liner or healthy scratch. If he's good enough to make it, he should be top 9 player.
-- If Lafreniere is as advertised, you are in dangerous cap territory. While his salary is 925K, bonuses could add another 2.3-2.8M...which you would be over with this lineup.
-- While Minnesota makes some sense for Bjugstad, I don't think they could take McCann (who is likely 2M minimum) plus Bjugstad for Greenway. That's an add of over 6M, and they only have 16M going into next season for 6 players. I can't see them taking Bjugstad unless Penguins are retaining 50%.
-- I'm not very high on Hallander, but, I'm not giving him up just to move Johnson for a 6th rounder. I'd rather keep Johnson as a 7th than deal one of our few decent assets to get rid of him.

With scenario 1, I like Murray for Montour in a vacuum. I've made the same trade myself....but only with Letang gone. Montour is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. If you are paying him that much, he needs to be higher in the lineup and on his proper side, and so does Marino....which he can't do with Marino and Letang in front of him. I don't mind the Haula signing. Penguins have had past interest, and salary seems pretty fair. Only issue I have with Haula is he is now 29. Not a huge issue. Penguins have liked him for awhile, but, he's aged. I would still consider taking that risk.

========================================================
Scenario 2 feedback
--I don't see Jarry signing for 4 years for under 4M. Not smart for him if he is going to be a starter. Likely best for both parties for a 1-2 year deal for Jarry in the 3M range. Make Jarry prove it from Pens side, and don't lock yourself into a lower salary from Jarry side.
--I think you'd likely have to throw another 1M in AAV at Pietrangelo.
--3rd for Johnson/Hallander is a bit easier to swallow.
--Nylander for Letang is probably a bit of an overpayment. Maybe Kapanen plus a high pick or prospect would work.
--I don't see Calgary interested in Bjugstad now with his injury history. This is another deal that has been discussed previously, but time has changed the elements of this type of trade.
--Repeat of Poulin status from above. In the top 9 or not on the NHL roster. I don't see the team keeping him as an extra or 4th liner.

I think you've likely done the best/most accurate in this scenario. There are some adjustments, but the basis of these deals and signings seems mostly fair.

=========================================================
Scenario 3 feedback
--Don't see the Greenway deal working. Not enough going to MIN.
--I'm not sold on Fast. Only hit 30 points once. On pace past 2 seasons for 30 points, but has missed 10-15 games past 2 years.
--What happened to McCann in this scenario? Or Simon in any scenario?
--Similar to above, not a fan of acquiring Montour unless Letang is out of the picture.
--I really don't see enough change here to think this team is better equipped than the one that lost to the Isles and Canadians.


Ok lets work on Scenario 2 first. Sense on the board seems to be that Toronto could be a good trade partner for us in the summer. We know they have what we need and we have some of what they may want. I like the idea of trading both Murray + Letang to them. Why not this?

Pens Send:
Murray
Letang

Toronto Send:
Kappanen
Kerefoot

This would check off RW for Sid and 3C. With this one move we would have the following before other moves:
Zucker - Sid - Kappy
Jake - Geno - Rust/Horny
Poulin - Kerefoot - Rust/Horny
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev

DP 1: Dumo - Marino
DP 2: FA - Petterson
DP 3: Ruhwedel - FA/POJ
Extra: FA

Obviously from here we'd have to acquire some D. I think moving Letang would give us the move of acquiring a D man in FA. Say we sign Tyson Barrie and trade Bjustad for Pateryn. We could have this:

DP 1: Dumo - Marino
DP 2: Barrie - Petterson
DP 3: Pateryn -Ruhwedel/POJ

Just spitballing here though...lets discuss and I will edit the trade on Scenario 2 and repost.


Toronto is in cap hell next season. They can't add salary like this trade probably requires unless they have other deals to cut salary.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby KG on Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:31 am

If money has to match with Toronto how about Letang for Kapanen and Kerfoot?

Young scoring wing, young 3rd line center. Then deal Murray for some D. Maybe move Horny for a pick and use the leftover cap space to make a run at Pietrangelo!

I know the last part isn’t realistic necessarily, but he’s a horse.
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:37 am

pens_CT wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:Ok here is the three scenarios I mentioned before:

Scenario 1: We win Alex L lottery:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825814

Scenario 2: We lose lottery and move Letang:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825865

Scenario 3: We lose lottery and no core player moved:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1825930

Doing Scenario 1 was seamless as salary cap was always there to make moves. Scenario 2 was hardest as it is difficult to find value for Letang. Scenario 3 which is honestly the most likely scenario in reality was difficult with moving JJ/Bjustad/Murray. One other thing I will point out was I made it a goal in all three to revamp line 3. I have two thoughts on line 3 regarding the roster:

- Line 4 of ZAR - Teddy - Tanev could bump to line 3 and than replace line 4 with a combo of Poulin/X/X
- Other thought was finding a place for Hornqvist is difficult on this team at this current moment. I had a harder time rebuilding the D after moving Letang than moving the forwards around. Regarding Hornqvist I did find it interesting as the idea came across me when doing scenario three. We can discuss when we get to that scenario but the idea of this is intriguing:

Line 1: Zucker - Sid - Free agent that fits with these two
Line 2: Jake - Geno - Horny
Line 3: X - X - Rust

I know it puts Rust down to the third line but I think unless we move Hornqvist Rust is kind of stuck because of it...but something we can discuss when we get to that scenario :D . Which scenario do you want to examine first?

OK, so, I'm going to start by reviewing/evaluating each of your scenarios. I'll follow up with a separate post on how I would handle each of these situations.

Your scenario 1. Here are the issues that I see:
-- I do not see Poulin making the team to sit. If he makes the team, he's going to play. He may get nights off here or there, but, I don't see him as a 4th liner or healthy scratch. If he's good enough to make it, he should be top 9 player.
-- If Lafreniere is as advertised, you are in dangerous cap territory. While his salary is 925K, bonuses could add another 2.3-2.8M...which you would be over with this lineup.
-- While Minnesota makes some sense for Bjugstad, I don't think they could take McCann (who is likely 2M minimum) plus Bjugstad for Greenway. That's an add of over 6M, and they only have 16M going into next season for 6 players. I can't see them taking Bjugstad unless Penguins are retaining 50%.
-- I'm not very high on Hallander, but, I'm not giving him up just to move Johnson for a 6th rounder. I'd rather keep Johnson as a 7th than deal one of our few decent assets to get rid of him.

With scenario 1, I like Murray for Montour in a vacuum. I've made the same trade myself....but only with Letang gone. Montour is better than a 3rd pairing d-man. If you are paying him that much, he needs to be higher in the lineup and on his proper side, and so does Marino....which he can't do with Marino and Letang in front of him. I don't mind the Haula signing. Penguins have had past interest, and salary seems pretty fair. Only issue I have with Haula is he is now 29. Not a huge issue. Penguins have liked him for awhile, but, he's aged. I would still consider taking that risk.

========================================================
Scenario 2 feedback
--I don't see Jarry signing for 4 years for under 4M. Not smart for him if he is going to be a starter. Likely best for both parties for a 1-2 year deal for Jarry in the 3M range. Make Jarry prove it from Pens side, and don't lock yourself into a lower salary from Jarry side.
--I think you'd likely have to throw another 1M in AAV at Pietrangelo.
--3rd for Johnson/Hallander is a bit easier to swallow.
--Nylander for Letang is probably a bit of an overpayment. Maybe Kapanen plus a high pick or prospect would work.
--I don't see Calgary interested in Bjugstad now with his injury history. This is another deal that has been discussed previously, but time has changed the elements of this type of trade.
--Repeat of Poulin status from above. In the top 9 or not on the NHL roster. I don't see the team keeping him as an extra or 4th liner.

I think you've likely done the best/most accurate in this scenario. There are some adjustments, but the basis of these deals and signings seems mostly fair.

=========================================================
Scenario 3 feedback
--Don't see the Greenway deal working. Not enough going to MIN.
--I'm not sold on Fast. Only hit 30 points once. On pace past 2 seasons for 30 points, but has missed 10-15 games past 2 years.
--What happened to McCann in this scenario? Or Simon in any scenario?
--Similar to above, not a fan of acquiring Montour unless Letang is out of the picture.
--I really don't see enough change here to think this team is better equipped than the one that lost to the Isles and Canadians.


Ok lets work on Scenario 2 first. Sense on the board seems to be that Toronto could be a good trade partner for us in the summer. We know they have what we need and we have some of what they may want. I like the idea of trading both Murray + Letang to them. Why not this?

Pens Send:
Murray
Letang

Toronto Send:
Kappanen
Kerefoot

This would check off RW for Sid and 3C. With this one move we would have the following before other moves:
Zucker - Sid - Kappy
Jake - Geno - Rust/Horny
Poulin - Kerefoot - Rust/Horny
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev

DP 1: Dumo - Marino
DP 2: FA - Petterson
DP 3: Ruhwedel - FA/POJ
Extra: FA

Obviously from here we'd have to acquire some D. I think moving Letang would give us the move of acquiring a D man in FA. Say we sign Tyson Barrie and trade Bjustad for Pateryn. We could have this:

DP 1: Dumo - Marino
DP 2: Barrie - Petterson
DP 3: Pateryn -Ruhwedel/POJ

Just spitballing here though...lets discuss and I will edit the trade on Scenario 2 and repost.


Toronto is in cap hell next season. They can't add salary like this trade probably requires unless they have other deals to cut salary.


The difference in salaries on this deal is $500k to the good for the Pens. We can always retain $500k on Tanger to keep it flat though too.
Pensfan4life8771
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:38 am

KG wrote:If money has to match with Toronto how about Letang for Kapanen and Kerfoot?

Young scoring wing, young 3rd line center. Then deal Murray for some D. Maybe move Horny for a pick and use the leftover cap space to make a run at Pietrangelo!

I know the last part isn’t realistic necessarily, but he’s a horse.



This works actually...forgot Murray is $0 technically. Sorry Pens CT that was my miss on Murray $0
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Re: Hey FLPens - 2021 roster exercise

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:57 am

KG wrote:If money has to match with Toronto how about Letang for Kapanen and Kerfoot?

Young scoring wing, young 3rd line center. Then deal Murray for some D. Maybe move Horny for a pick and use the leftover cap space to make a run at Pietrangelo!

I know the last part isn’t realistic necessarily, but he’s a horse.

That works in a vacuum, but, think about the bigger picture for a moment....

--Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander make 40.3M combined.
--Today, TOR has 9 forwards (including the 4 above, plus the 2 we are discussing acquiring), 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies under contract for next season.
--That is 17 total players under contract with only 4.6M left in cap space.

If we trade them Letang for Kapanen and Kerfoot, and make the money dead even, the end result for Toronto is 1 player in, 2 player out, and same money. That's a lose for their cap situation, because now they still have 4.6M in cap space, but only 16 players under contract instead of 17.

Toronto is going to have to be making some deals.
--I don't think they want to move Tavares
--I don't think they want to move Matthews
--I think Marner or Nylander or more likely to be dealt....but, I'm not sure who wants Marner at just under 11M AAV

One deal (and I think there were more pieces on both sides) I had seen out there was Matthews to Arizona for Barrett Hayton, Jacob Chycrun and a 1st rounder. That wouldn't be a bad type of deal for Toronto to pursue.

I've also heard of a Marner for Seth Jones type of swap.

Toronto will need to move one of their big players, or fill out the rest of their roster with ELC deal players.
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