2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby ville5 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:39 pm

Still averages .5 point per game, maybe being reunited with ex-linemate Draisaitl boosts him past that.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby sjnhiils on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:51 pm

ville5 wrote:Still averages .5 point per game, maybe being reunited with ex-linemate Draisaitl boosts him past that.

He actually outscored Draisaitl in their under16 league. He put up 206 points to Draisaitl's 198 in only 30 games. Would have liked for the Pens to get him but he probably figures playing with Draisaitl will get him a bigger contract next year.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Pitts on Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:16 pm

sjnhiils wrote:
ville5 wrote:Still averages .5 point per game, maybe being reunited with ex-linemate Draisaitl boosts him past that.

He actually outscored Draisaitl in their under16 league. He put up 206 points to Draisaitl's 198 in only 30 games. Would have liked for the Pens to get him but he probably figures playing with Draisaitl will get him a bigger contract next year.

I doubt he wanted to come back here after they dumped after a few decent months of play.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:04 pm

Pitts wrote:
sjnhiils wrote:
ville5 wrote:Still averages .5 point per game, maybe being reunited with ex-linemate Draisaitl boosts him past that.

He actually outscored Draisaitl in their under16 league. He put up 206 points to Draisaitl's 198 in only 30 games. Would have liked for the Pens to get him but he probably figures playing with Draisaitl will get him a bigger contract next year.

I doubt he wanted to come back here after they dumped after a few decent months of play.

I had mentioned before that he was likely to go to Edmonton. Draisaitl was apparently very vocal with EDM management that he wanted the Oilers to sign him when he first came over to the US. Lots of reporters said Draisaitl was likely to make the same pleas with Kahun out there as a UFA.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:41 pm

What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby mayday56 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:52 pm

quick question....if a player ..say like Kahun signs with a Canadian club is his salary in US Dollars?
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Jim on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:54 pm

mayday56 wrote:quick question....if a player ..say like Kahun signs with a Canadian club is his salary in US Dollars?


Yeah. I think that the prior CBA made that mandatory.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Daniel on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:05 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?


I think a lot can change over the course of a year and I don't think all of the top 6 are a lock. I think Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin are locks, but if McCann outplays one of Zucker, Kapanen, Rust he could displace one of them. Kapanen is the youngest and an RFA, but what if he completely flops (ala Galchenyuk?) Zucker has the highest salary and is older so might not be taken. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him.

Unless McCann is still showing inconsistencies, I think they'd expose Rust or Zucker, likely Rust since he'll be a UFA after 2021-22.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:06 pm

Daniel wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?


I think a lot can change over the course of a year and I don't think all of the top 6 are a lock. I think Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin are locks, but if McCann outplays one of Zucker, Kapanen, Rust he could displace one of them. Kapanen is the youngest and an RFA, but what if he completely flops (ala Galchenyuk?) Zucker has the highest salary and is older so might not be taken. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him.

Unless McCann is still showing inconsistencies, I think they'd expose Rust or Zucker, likely Rust since he'll be a UFA after 2021-22.

Pretty similar feelings upfront. If you ask me today, I protect Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Kapanen, Rust, Zucker.....in that order of importance. The last forward spot likely comes down to McCann or Blueger, and what they do this year. I lean towards Blueger simply because I feel he can be the 3C and our depth there is very weak. If McCann improves his play and output, then you have to ask yourself....does he belong as a 3rd liner or top 6, and if he's top 6....then you consider moving on from a Rust or Zucker (although McCann not playing RW at all complicates it a bit). I really think Zucker and Rust are good team system fits, but, if Zucker shows any signs of no longer fitting or chemistry is off, the team would be wise to move on from him, probably via trade if possible.

On defense, today, it would be Letang, Dumoulin, and Pettersson, but, I have strong suspicions that if Matheson pans out, he'd replace Pettersson....and MP would be dealt before the expansion draft.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby dark_forces on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:06 pm

Daniel wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?


I think a lot can change over the course of a year and I don't think all of the top 6 are a lock. I think Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin are locks, but if McCann outplays one of Zucker, Kapanen, Rust he could displace one of them. Kapanen is the youngest and an RFA, but what if he completely flops (ala Galchenyuk?) Zucker has the highest salary and is older so might not be taken. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him.

Unless McCann is still showing inconsistencies, I think they'd expose Rust or Zucker, likely Rust since he'll be a UFA after 2021-22.

I think we'd stand to lose a forward - probably a winger - because you'd imagine Poulin would be ready to take a vacated spot full time.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Daniel on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:31 pm

dark_forces wrote:
Daniel wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?


I think a lot can change over the course of a year and I don't think all of the top 6 are a lock. I think Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin are locks, but if McCann outplays one of Zucker, Kapanen, Rust he could displace one of them. Kapanen is the youngest and an RFA, but what if he completely flops (ala Galchenyuk?) Zucker has the highest salary and is older so might not be taken. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him.

Unless McCann is still showing inconsistencies, I think they'd expose Rust or Zucker, likely Rust since he'll be a UFA after 2021-22.

I think we'd stand to lose a forward - probably a winger - because you'd imagine Poulin would be ready to take a vacated spot full time.


I agree and think it’ll be Zucker, Rust, or McCann. I’m with FlPensFan regarding Blueger, I think he’ll end up being 3C and he’s in a position of need.

I can see an argument for Zucker, Rust, or McCann. Zucker is most expensive and with longer term so he might make negotiations for someone rough so he could be available. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him. McCann is on his 3rd team already and might not show enough consistency to be protected.

Heck, by this time next summer 1 or 2 of them could be traded and shifts the projected player taken from forward to defense. Either way, I hope JR doesn’t trade with Seattle so they take a specific player.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Daniel on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:37 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?


I think a lot can change over the course of a year and I don't think all of the top 6 are a lock. I think Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin are locks, but if McCann outplays one of Zucker, Kapanen, Rust he could displace one of them. Kapanen is the youngest and an RFA, but what if he completely flops (ala Galchenyuk?) Zucker has the highest salary and is older so might not be taken. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him.

Unless McCann is still showing inconsistencies, I think they'd expose Rust or Zucker, likely Rust since he'll be a UFA after 2021-22.

Pretty similar feelings upfront. If you ask me today, I protect Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Kapanen, Rust, Zucker.....in that order of importance. The last forward spot likely comes down to McCann or Blueger, and what they do this year. I lean towards Blueger simply because I feel he can be the 3C and our depth there is very weak. If McCann improves his play and output, then you have to ask yourself....does he belong as a 3rd liner or top 6, and if he's top 6....then you consider moving on from a Rust or Zucker (although McCann not playing RW at all complicates it a bit). I really think Zucker and Rust are good team system fits, but, if Zucker shows any signs of no longer fitting or chemistry is off, the team would be wise to move on from him, probably via trade if possible.

On defense, today, it would be Letang, Dumoulin, and Pettersson, but, I have strong suspicions that if Matheson pans out, he'd replace Pettersson....and MP would be dealt before the expansion draft.


I think Matheson would have to be an All Star for that salary to be protected. His contract might make Seattle leery of drafting him. He’s the opposite of Rust in that respect. I can’t see them taking Rust with 1 year on his contract and I can’t see them taking Matheson because he’s overpaid for too long. But who knows what Seattle’s strategy will be.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby longtimefan on Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:40 pm

Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:What do you think the Pens will do regarding the expansion draft? Forwards are pretty clear cut protect the top 6 then protect 1 of McCann, Bleuger, or Tanev.

On defense I think Letang, Dumoulin and Pettersson are safe for now.

Would you consider giving a pick for Seattle to take Tanev or a higher pick if Matheson flops?


I think a lot can change over the course of a year and I don't think all of the top 6 are a lock. I think Guentzel, Crosby, Malkin are locks, but if McCann outplays one of Zucker, Kapanen, Rust he could displace one of them. Kapanen is the youngest and an RFA, but what if he completely flops (ala Galchenyuk?) Zucker has the highest salary and is older so might not be taken. Rust is a UFA after next season so Seattle might not take him.

Unless McCann is still showing inconsistencies, I think they'd expose Rust or Zucker, likely Rust since he'll be a UFA after 2021-22.

Pretty similar feelings upfront. If you ask me today, I protect Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Kapanen, Rust, Zucker.....in that order of importance. The last forward spot likely comes down to McCann or Blueger, and what they do this year. I lean towards Blueger simply because I feel he can be the 3C and our depth there is very weak. If McCann improves his play and output, then you have to ask yourself....does he belong as a 3rd liner or top 6, and if he's top 6....then you consider moving on from a Rust or Zucker (although McCann not playing RW at all complicates it a bit). I really think Zucker and Rust are good team system fits, but, if Zucker shows any signs of no longer fitting or chemistry is off, the team would be wise to move on from him, probably via trade if possible.

On defense, today, it would be Letang, Dumoulin, and Pettersson, but, I have strong suspicions that if Matheson pans out, he'd replace Pettersson....and MP would be dealt before the expansion draft.


I think Matheson would have to be an All Star for that salary to be protected. His contract might make Seattle leery of drafting him. He’s the opposite of Rust in that respect. I can’t see them taking Rust with 1 year on his contract and I can’t see them taking Matheson because he’s overpaid for too long. But who knows what Seattle’s strategy will be.


The funny thing about Matheson is that if he has a season comparable to what Schultz had in '16-'17, his AAV will be lower even though the cap has increased. And people complained about Schultz only signing for 3 years. It's all perception.

The thing about Blueger or whoever is the 3C, it's not a top priority most places. Here, yes, because we've not been looking for a top 6C for so long. It's a vital role, but I think they will keep the better player. IF McCann scores 20+ goals and Blueger say 12, the position won't matter.

From what I've read, the feeling is GM's don't want to go through the Vegas debacle again. A lot of assets were lost in overthinking who you wanted to lose. It's best to put your list together and let it play out like in past expansions. You're going to lose someone down your depth chart. Just take the hit rather than compounding it by throwing assets their way.

I know Letang has a fragile ego, but, for the good of the team, I'd approach him about waiving his NMC. Would Seattle really want a 34 year old defenseman on the final year of his contract with a $7.25M cap hit? Is that the best use of their resources as opposed to a Blueger, Tanev, or McCann? Something to at least consider.

The reality is how the season plays out will dictate who they protect. At this point, it's no more than conjecture. I don't think Calgary had to do anything last time to get Vegas to take Engeland even though he was a UFA. He just happened to live in Vegas, which made it good PR. IF I were to guess, they'll likely lose Blueger or Tanev if it's a forward. Matheson's play will dictate who they leave unprotected on D. They won't balk at Matheson's cap hit if he plays well. He's got more upside than Pettersson. If they could get Letang to agree to being leftunprotected, they can protect both. Lots of possibilities, but I don't see any additional assets needed to sweeten the deal. Just let the chips fall where they may. It's the best strategy in the long run.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby sjnhiils on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:48 pm

I don"t see it happening, but if Matheson would somehow find his game again I would leave Pettersson exposed and hope he is taken. I don't think they would get much in a trade for him anyway so maybe that keeps them from losing one of McCann,Blueger or Tanev.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby lemieuxReturns on Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:12 am

I would not lose any sleep over losing anyone that is speculated to be exposed.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:17 pm

Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop both had surgery and expected to miss a minimum of 5 months, putting them in jeopardy of missing a good portion of a possible next season. Seguin with hip surgery, and Bishop with knee surgery.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Sigwolf on Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:06 pm

Luckily for them next season is in jeopardy of missing next season...
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Cow_Master66 on Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:58 pm

Sigwolf wrote:Luckily for them next season is in jeopardy of missing next season...


Probably more true today than earlier this week...Will be interesting to see how the league handles the fact that fans are not going to be allowed to attend...Pittsburgh fans may potentially lose 1.5-2 years of Crosby/Malkin era when this is all said and done.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby longtimefan on Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:56 pm

https://pittsburghhockeynow.com/nhl-net ... efenseman/

I always find it interesting what's being said nationally about the Pens. IT's a different perspective form those without black and gold blinders on. This on Letang from the NHL network.

This week, the NHL Network ranked Letang as a top-10 defenseman, ahead of some of the NHL’s biggest names.

At the top of the list were the Norris Trophy stalwarts Victor Hedman and Roman Jossi. At No. 8 was the long-time
Penguins top defenseman and core player, Kris Letang.

Letang, 33, has been an integral piece on the Penguins blueline since he was a third-round pick in the 2005 NHL Draft. The first
Penguins pick that year was Sidney Crosby.


Letang also finished several spots ahead of Vegas Golden Knights defender Shea Theodore, seven spots ahead of LA Kings Drew Doughty, 10 spots ahead of San Jose Sharks Erik Karlsson, and one spot ahead of quickly rising Charlie McAvoy in Boston.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby longtimefan on Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:08 pm

Along the same lines as the above post, the Athletic did an analysis of each team's contract efficiency. The Pens take a ton of criticism about how they manage the cap on here. I always believe you can't judge them in a vacuum. You have to consider the league as a hole. They finished #3 on the list, behind only Boston and Colorado.

https://theathletic.com/2166869/2020/11 ... rade-2020/

The Penguins acquired one of the league’s worst contracts in Mike Matheson and somehow moved up on this list compared to last season. That’s hard to do, but it’s partially because at this time last season the team had two defenders under contract with deals just as poor in Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson. The outlook there looks a lot better now, especially with the emergence of Marcus Pettersson as a legitimate top-four option on a fair deal (he was an RFA at this time last year).

Up front, the Penguins still hold excellent value with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but it’s the duo’s sidekicks that are bringing in the most value. Jake Guentzel has evolved into one of the game’s best wingers and now has one of the league’s best contracts himself after proving he’s a legitimate point-per-game threat. As for Bryan Rust, he exploded last year and while it’s hard to imagine he can stay at that level, any regression should still find him well north of the $3.5 million he’s being paid. He’s a great player.

The Penguins are a very deep team and while there isn’t an abundance of slam dunk deals, they’re mostly above average and that’s enough to rank highly in a league littered with lesser deals. Even the Brandon Tanev deal doesn’t look as awful after a strong first season in Pittsburgh.


Here's a the explanation of their criteria. I found their opinion of Pettersson above to be especially interesting.

each team is graded based on the same methodology in an attempt to measure which teams are most efficient with the money they spend. The contracts being graded are every healthy, non-ELC skater that my model has a projection for, as well as any dead money a team has on their cap via buyouts, salary retention and cap recapture penalties. That means no RFAs without a deal, no players on an entry-level contract, no players without significant NHL-playing time, no players on LTIR and no goalies. My model currently doesn’t have win projections for goaltenders beyond one season or expected contract value, so they were omitted. Unused cap space is also not part of the equation as there’s no telling exactly how that space would be used. This is just about the value of each contract currently on the books, signed as of Nov. 3.

Each team was graded based on the surplus value they bring in per player (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

The main goal is looking at what teams have on the books. What a player has already done holds no merit. They may have been worth their deal as a whole and been excellent value prior, but that may not matter going forward. Future value means age is exceptionally important in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more years left offer a larger opportunity to compound value, good or bad. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection, which depends on the size of the sample the projection. Longer term means that uncertainty increases too.

Each contract was graded based on where a player’s combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of Nov. 3.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:56 pm

longtimefan wrote:https://pittsburghhockeynow.com/nhl-network-names-kris-letang-pittsburgh-penguins-top-10-defenseman/

I always find it interesting what's being said nationally about the Pens. IT's a different perspective form those without black and gold blinders on. This on Letang from the NHL network.

This week, the NHL Network ranked Letang as a top-10 defenseman, ahead of some of the NHL’s biggest names.

At the top of the list were the Norris Trophy stalwarts Victor Hedman and Roman Jossi. At No. 8 was the long-time
Penguins top defenseman and core player, Kris Letang.

Letang, 33, has been an integral piece on the Penguins blueline since he was a third-round pick in the 2005 NHL Draft. The first
Penguins pick that year was Sidney Crosby.


Letang also finished several spots ahead of Vegas Golden Knights defender Shea Theodore, seven spots ahead of LA Kings Drew Doughty, 10 spots ahead of San Jose Sharks Erik Karlsson, and one spot ahead of quickly rising Charlie McAvoy in Boston.

I've never really been a Letang hater. I don't think he's a great PP QB, and that is probably my biggest complaint about him. He doesn't have a booming shot from the point. He doesn't have a high rate of getting shots on net. But the other criticisms, I have mainly thought, were grass isn't greener on the other side type of complaints. I still remember an all-star game a few years ago, where I believe Letang was there, and he had struggled throughout the year. Someone interviewed Brent Burns, and he was talking about that many people don't fully understand the the scale of what the elite does. Often, plays they make are coming down to fractions of an inch one way or another....everyone piles on and groans when a play is a turnover or a bad play, but these players often don't get the same level of praise when they complete that same play because they think it is ordinary. It isn't. Normal average player might try that same play, and be successful 1 out of 10 times. An elite level defenseman like Letang might be successful 5 out of 10 times. If you take a close look at Letang's numbers in terms of scoring chances and goals with him on and off the ice, it becomes very apparent how critical he is to the success of the Penguins top 2 lines.

On Karlsson, I always thought the guy was overrated. He had 1, maybe 2 good years for Ottawa were he played well at both ends, but in most years, Karlsson was not good defensively in his own end, and he continues to live up to that in SJ.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Jim on Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:16 pm

When you hit the guy standing in front of you with your "shot" and the play goes the other way because of it... it is not counted as a turnover/givaway on the stats. Letang does that a dozen times a game. ...and it is a turnover/giveaway. I don't care if he doesn't have a boomer of a shot, just stop handing the puck to the opposition.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby LimerickPensFan on Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:35 pm

FLPensFan wrote:I've never really been a Letang hater. I don't think he's a great PP QB, and that is probably my biggest complaint about him. He doesn't have a booming shot from the point. He doesn't have a high rate of getting shots on net. But the other criticisms, I have mainly thought, were grass isn't greener on the other side type of complaints. I still remember an all-star game a few years ago, where I believe Letang was there, and he had struggled throughout the year. Someone interviewed Brent Burns, and he was talking about that many people don't fully understand the the scale of what the elite does. Often, plays they make are coming down to fractions of an inch one way or another....everyone piles on and groans when a play is a turnover or a bad play, but these players often don't get the same level of praise when they complete that same play because they think it is ordinary. It isn't. Normal average player might try that same play, and be successful 1 out of 10 times. An elite level defenseman like Letang might be successful 5 out of 10 times. If you take a close look at Letang's numbers in terms of scoring chances and goals with him on and off the ice, it becomes very apparent how critical he is to the success of the Penguins top 2 lines.

On Karlsson, I always thought the guy was overrated. He had 1, maybe 2 good years for Ottawa were he played well at both ends, but in most years, Karlsson was not good defensively in his own end, and he continues to live up to that in SJ.


Letang excels at getting the puck into the zone. I've always felt that if you could have a combination of Letang and Schultz, you'd have a pretty darned good power play quarterback. Letang to get the puck into the zone, Schultz after it was in the zone.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby Hatrick on Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:26 pm

longtimefan wrote:Along the same lines as the above post, the Athletic did an analysis of each team's contract efficiency. The Pens take a ton of criticism about how they manage the cap on here. I always believe you can't judge them in a vacuum. You have to consider the league as a hole. They finished #3 on the list, behind only Boston and Colorado.

https://theathletic.com/2166869/2020/11 ... rade-2020/

The Penguins acquired one of the league’s worst contracts in Mike Matheson and somehow moved up on this list compared to last season. That’s hard to do, but it’s partially because at this time last season the team had two defenders under contract with deals just as poor in Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson. The outlook there looks a lot better now, especially with the emergence of Marcus Pettersson as a legitimate top-four option on a fair deal (he was an RFA at this time last year).

Up front, the Penguins still hold excellent value with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but it’s the duo’s sidekicks that are bringing in the most value. Jake Guentzel has evolved into one of the game’s best wingers and now has one of the league’s best contracts himself after proving he’s a legitimate point-per-game threat. As for Bryan Rust, he exploded last year and while it’s hard to imagine he can stay at that level, any regression should still find him well north of the $3.5 million he’s being paid. He’s a great player.

The Penguins are a very deep team and while there isn’t an abundance of slam dunk deals, they’re mostly above average and that’s enough to rank highly in a league littered with lesser deals. Even the Brandon Tanev deal doesn’t look as awful after a strong first season in Pittsburgh.


Here's a the explanation of their criteria. I found their opinion of Pettersson above to be especially interesting.

each team is graded based on the same methodology in an attempt to measure which teams are most efficient with the money they spend. The contracts being graded are every healthy, non-ELC skater that my model has a projection for, as well as any dead money a team has on their cap via buyouts, salary retention and cap recapture penalties. That means no RFAs without a deal, no players on an entry-level contract, no players without significant NHL-playing time, no players on LTIR and no goalies. My model currently doesn’t have win projections for goaltenders beyond one season or expected contract value, so they were omitted. Unused cap space is also not part of the equation as there’s no telling exactly how that space would be used. This is just about the value of each contract currently on the books, signed as of Nov. 3.

Each team was graded based on the surplus value they bring in per player (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

The main goal is looking at what teams have on the books. What a player has already done holds no merit. They may have been worth their deal as a whole and been excellent value prior, but that may not matter going forward. Future value means age is exceptionally important in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more years left offer a larger opportunity to compound value, good or bad. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection, which depends on the size of the sample the projection. Longer term means that uncertainty increases too.

Each contract was graded based on where a player’s combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of Nov. 3.

yeah I cant take any type of report like that seriously if they are saying Pettersson deal is fair. Maybe they are projecting ALOT because they do say its due to future value which is a projection based on age etc. The penguins do have plenty of good contracts that people here don't talk about because we tend to focus on the negatives. (So rather than focusing on how much of a bargain sid and jake and malkin and now rust, we focus on Pettersson and Johnson and Tanev even though Tanev's deal isn't even that bad)

I do not think they are a top 3 or 5 team in terms of cap efficiency but I know there are ALOT of teams leaguewide who seem to be making the same boneheaded cap mistakes so it would not shock me if just having a couple good contracts puts them in the top 10-15.
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Re: 2020 Rumors - Roster Moves

Postby longtimefan on Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:24 am

Hatrick wrote:
longtimefan wrote:Along the same lines as the above post, the Athletic did an analysis of each team's contract efficiency. The Pens take a ton of criticism about how they manage the cap on here. I always believe you can't judge them in a vacuum. You have to consider the league as a hole. They finished #3 on the list, behind only Boston and Colorado.

https://theathletic.com/2166869/2020/11 ... rade-2020/

The Penguins acquired one of the league’s worst contracts in Mike Matheson and somehow moved up on this list compared to last season. That’s hard to do, but it’s partially because at this time last season the team had two defenders under contract with deals just as poor in Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson. The outlook there looks a lot better now, especially with the emergence of Marcus Pettersson as a legitimate top-four option on a fair deal (he was an RFA at this time last year).

Up front, the Penguins still hold excellent value with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but it’s the duo’s sidekicks that are bringing in the most value. Jake Guentzel has evolved into one of the game’s best wingers and now has one of the league’s best contracts himself after proving he’s a legitimate point-per-game threat. As for Bryan Rust, he exploded last year and while it’s hard to imagine he can stay at that level, any regression should still find him well north of the $3.5 million he’s being paid. He’s a great player.

The Penguins are a very deep team and while there isn’t an abundance of slam dunk deals, they’re mostly above average and that’s enough to rank highly in a league littered with lesser deals. Even the Brandon Tanev deal doesn’t look as awful after a strong first season in Pittsburgh.


Here's a the explanation of their criteria. I found their opinion of Pettersson above to be especially interesting.

each team is graded based on the same methodology in an attempt to measure which teams are most efficient with the money they spend. The contracts being graded are every healthy, non-ELC skater that my model has a projection for, as well as any dead money a team has on their cap via buyouts, salary retention and cap recapture penalties. That means no RFAs without a deal, no players on an entry-level contract, no players without significant NHL-playing time, no players on LTIR and no goalies. My model currently doesn’t have win projections for goaltenders beyond one season or expected contract value, so they were omitted. Unused cap space is also not part of the equation as there’s no telling exactly how that space would be used. This is just about the value of each contract currently on the books, signed as of Nov. 3.

Each team was graded based on the surplus value they bring in per player (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

The main goal is looking at what teams have on the books. What a player has already done holds no merit. They may have been worth their deal as a whole and been excellent value prior, but that may not matter going forward. Future value means age is exceptionally important in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more years left offer a larger opportunity to compound value, good or bad. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection, which depends on the size of the sample the projection. Longer term means that uncertainty increases too.

Each contract was graded based on where a player’s combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of Nov. 3.

yeah I cant take any type of report like that seriously if they are saying Pettersson deal is fair. Maybe they are projecting ALOT because they do say its due to future value which is a projection based on age etc. The penguins do have plenty of good contracts that people here don't talk about because we tend to focus on the negatives. (So rather than focusing on how much of a bargain sid and jake and malkin and now rust, we focus on Pettersson and Johnson and Tanev even though Tanev's deal isn't even that bad)

I do not think they are a top 3 or 5 team in terms of cap efficiency but I know there are ALOT of teams leaguewide who seem to be making the same boneheaded cap mistakes so it would not shock me if just having a couple good contracts puts them in the top 10-15.


The thing is, the national consensus has been pretty consistent as seeing MP as a budding top 4 defenseman. Not just the Athletic. I haven't cared for what I've seen as sensationalism by at least the local scribes of the Athletic, namely Yohe and Rossi. At the same time, it's not a loosely put together rumor site or blog. They've got a lot of highly respected writers across both countries. That doesn't make them right, but they aren't bloggers from afar. They have a bit more credibility because of a lot more access. We watch MP a lot closer, and that's going to allow us to focus on his warts. From the outside though, I've consistently found the opinion of MP and his contract to be viewed as fair. Not a steal, but fair.

I don't know if you have a subscription, but, if you do, I encourage you to read the opinions on the other teams. They're pretty transparent about how they arrived at the ratings. I can't copy the whole article, but it's important to not look at things in a black and gold vacuum. Here are some conclusions about the Metro rivals.

The Bluejackets came in at #4.
What was noticeable even at the top of the list is that even the best teams had some bad deals on the books and that’s true of every team, except Columbus. That’s the reason the Blue Jackets rank so high as every single deal is at least average or better at this present time. That’s really hard to do.


The Hurricanes checked in at #11. They were last year's top rated team.
Trading for Brady Skjei is a big part of that as he grades out as having one of the league’s worst contracts. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but it’s tough to see him at the one-win rate expected of him.

The other major issue is a decline in value for Brett Pesce, who was projected to be worth 1.6 wins at the start of last season, but is at half of that this year. That’s the difference between a high-end No. 2 defender and a decent No. 3. At $4 million AAV, now he finds himself closer to average.

Carolina still has four A-level deals with Teuvo Teravainen leading the way and Jaccob Slavin looking excellent, but there’s not enough value after the team’s main four guys.


The Flyers were at #12.
But that Hayes deal still looms large over the team’s entire cap picture. At the time of signing, Hayes looked like a high-end second-line centre, with the contract having a 38 percent chance of positive value. That’s down all the way to 11 percent now as Hayes’s 2018-19 projection looks more like a one-year flash than anything. His current projection is back to where he was the prior two seasons and that makes his $7 million deal far too pricey. It’s among the league’s worst, but the rest of the team’s cap is efficient enough to rank in the league’s upper half.


The Devils are #17.
The P.K. Subban deal has aged horribly and a change of scenery only furthered his downfall. That was unexpected and leaves the Devils with one of the league’s worst deals. It’s a similar plight with Travis Zajac, but both deals expire within the next two seasons and the Devils are flush with cap space anyway.


The Isles come in at #21.
Neither Anders Lee nor Josh Bailey looks especially likely to live up to their deals, while Jean-Gabriel Pageau is costing a hefty price to be the team’s third pivot. He was excellent in the playoffs but six years at $5 million AAV is tough to swallow for what will be his worst seasons.

The deals for Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech and Scott Mayfield are all good and there’s little doubt Barzal will provide positive value, but overall this is a very grim outlook.


The Caps are #23.
John Carlson’s deal looks nice and Jakub Vrana’s bridge deal will provide excellent value for one more season, but there’s a lot more trouble than meets the eye for this aging group. There’s a high volume of C-grade contracts from recent signings like Justin Schultz and Brenden Dillon to core pieces T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson and Dmitry Orlov. Oshie was worth every penny in the front half of his extension but is now entering the back half where he’ll likely be less valuable.

That’s perhaps an even bigger issue for the team’s two worst contracts belonging to its top two centres, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom. Kuznetsov’s defence has become a real issue, one that his sublime offence can’t reconcile enough to be worth nearly $8 million. The Backstrom deal is even worse. Freshly minted, it’s hard to argue he’s still a $9 million centre at 32 and that’s only going to get worse. Backstrom uncharacteristically struggled at 5-on-5 last season and that’s a rough sign for the years to come.


The Rangers are #28.
There aren’t many non-ELC deals on the books for the Rangers, but those that are here offer a huge range between great (Mika Zibanejad) and awful (Jacob Trouba). The latter looks to be a big problem for New York as he’s being paid to be a No. 1 defenceman and proved last year that it’s very unlikely he can be that. It’s one of the worst deals in the league. Chris Kreider is near the bottom as well, almost entirely due to how he’s going to age. He’s worth $6.5 million now, but it’s unlikely he’ll continue to be as soon as 2021 – especially with top pick Alexis Lafreniere usurping him in the near future on the left side.


They are just opinions based on a model they created, but they are broader views than we have here as Pens fans. It is obvious that the view from outside of MP is markedly higher than what it is on these boards. Which, even if you don't like him, bodes well. If Matheson bounces back, the team will need to make a decision for the expansion draft. MP won't be unprotected simply because he is seen as having value around the league. If they decide to protect Matheson, it's very likely they can move MP for a reasonable return rather than losing him for nothing. That's a win. We may not agree, but his contract seems to be viewed as fair around the league.
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