Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby Cow_Master66 on Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:56 pm

largegarlic wrote:I'm willing to say 2 Cups >>>> any number of bad trades. But I also think that we're entering an era where the Pens will need to be really creative and smart about re-tooling/rebuilding on the fly to avoid completely cratering like they did in the early '00s, and it's becoming pretty clear that Rutherford is not the GM to be in charge of doing that.


I doubt if he wants to be part of a rebuild at this point.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby Hatrick on Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:02 pm

Daniel wrote:
Hatrick wrote:some of the more recent ones are very tough to grade although we can lean one way or another. Personally I would lower the Zucker deal as for right now cause it was too much of an overpay still imo(especially if GMJR was gonna turn around and send Minnesota another gift with the bjugstad trade). The Galchenyuk and POJ for kessel one is another one that I would say is a C(mainly cause the whole deal solely hinges on POJ playing in the NHL).

Overall I think most of the trades are pretty accurate, and does illustrate why the team won back to back cups and then hasn't done great since then. The trades prior to that turned out tremendously well. The trades since then while some are still a work in progress have largely been outright bad, and even the good ones have been B level trades, not home runs.


I think the Kessel trade to AZ got the Pens about the same that they gave up to get him, minus the 1st round pick. I think what lowers this is the completely unexpected bad play by Galchenyuk. I didn't expect him to be a 30-40 goal scorer, but should have gotten 20 goals easily with his skills and playing with Geno. If he plays anywhere close to his capabilities it makes that trade look better and removes the need to trade for Zucker.

Ill admit while I didn't love the trade initially of sending Phil to Arizona, I thought Galchenyuk with Malkin would produce the best results of Galchenyuk's career and it just didn't work out. Even if he was good though he was more of a rental so long term the deal was still built upon POJ turning into good NHL player.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby Jim on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:55 am

sjnhiils wrote:So GMJR turned a 1st,2nd,3rd,(2) 4th's,Gustavsson,Cole and Reaves into McCann(or what we can get for him), a conditional 7th and Almeida. Great asset management!


Yeah, because nothing else happened with anything that was involved in that.

Idiotic logic.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby Jim on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:56 am

KG wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
KG wrote:Funny thing is when most of these trades have been made over the past few years, most here thought they were good trades at the time (Brassard, Bjugstad for example). So we are grading the trades with hindsight being 20/20 because the players brought in didn't produce?I look at the players listed above that he brought in, there are some really good players. Kessel trade to Arizona isn't fair to grade as Phill would only agree to go there. MAF to Vegas? come on, that's serious revisionist history. We all thought the Pens had their next franchise goalie for the next 15 years in Murray and they needed Fleury's cap space. The ones that didn't work (Brasard, Reaves etc). Is that on the GM or the coach? I put more of the blame on the coach and not adjusting to the players he's given.

Some are minimizing what JR quickly added to this team and turned it into back to back champions. Most coaches and GM's go their entire career's not winning anything (Poile)

I like JR's style. He isn't afraid to make moves and is always looking for ways to improve the team.

When you have a gunslinger approach you have to live with the good and the bad. The good has far outweighed the bad. Now would I like to see him try to win more trades? sure, but his approach is he isn't going to let a prospect like Hallander, or a draft pick get in the way of the big picture in getting a player he feels helps this team. Again, I like that approach as well.


Say Murray didnt regress over the last 3 seasons; the Pens would need to sign him to a 7M-8M deal. If Murray was still the franchise goalie how could we afford him?


Every team has cap issues, much worse teams than ours. The Ducks have less than $500,000 in cap space. If that was reality with Murray then you could move Horny and JMFJ to clear space. It happens all the time. The Rangers have $1.4mill in dead cap space for the next 3 years for buying out Shattenkirk, Perry in Anaheim over $2mill the next 3 years. The Jackets owe Hartnell $1,250,000 this year.

Compared to most, the Pens cap has been well handled.


Rangers actually have $6.1M dead cap space for Shattenkirk "next" year, then $1.4M for two more after that.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby ville5 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:11 pm

Jim wrote:
KG wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
KG wrote:Funny thing is when most of these trades have been made over the past few years, most here thought they were good trades at the time (Brassard, Bjugstad for example). So we are grading the trades with hindsight being 20/20 because the players brought in didn't produce?I look at the players listed above that he brought in, there are some really good players. Kessel trade to Arizona isn't fair to grade as Phill would only agree to go there. MAF to Vegas? come on, that's serious revisionist history. We all thought the Pens had their next franchise goalie for the next 15 years in Murray and they needed Fleury's cap space. The ones that didn't work (Brasard, Reaves etc). Is that on the GM or the coach? I put more of the blame on the coach and not adjusting to the players he's given.

Some are minimizing what JR quickly added to this team and turned it into back to back champions. Most coaches and GM's go their entire career's not winning anything (Poile)

I like JR's style. He isn't afraid to make moves and is always looking for ways to improve the team.

When you have a gunslinger approach you have to live with the good and the bad. The good has far outweighed the bad. Now would I like to see him try to win more trades? sure, but his approach is he isn't going to let a prospect like Hallander, or a draft pick get in the way of the big picture in getting a player he feels helps this team. Again, I like that approach as well.


Say Murray didnt regress over the last 3 seasons; the Pens would need to sign him to a 7M-8M deal. If Murray was still the franchise goalie how could we afford him?


Every team has cap issues, much worse teams than ours. The Ducks have less than $500,000 in cap space. If that was reality with Murray then you could move Horny and JMFJ to clear space. It happens all the time. The Rangers have $1.4mill in dead cap space for the next 3 years for buying out Shattenkirk, Perry in Anaheim over $2mill the next 3 years. The Jackets owe Hartnell $1,250,000 this year.

Compared to most, the Pens cap has been well handled.


Rangers actually have $6.1M dead cap space for Shattenkirk "next" year, then $1.4M for two more after that.

Ooof. Rags only have $14.4 million space with only 8 forwards, 2 G and 5 D under contract.
Should've traded Kreider while they had the chance.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby lemieuxReturns on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:23 pm

I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby ville5 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:26 pm

lemieuxReturns wrote:I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.

That 3rd was used to acquire Hallander who was used....
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby pens_CT on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:54 pm

ville5 wrote:
lemieuxReturns wrote:I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.

That 3rd was used to acquire Hallander who was used....


Hallander was a 2nd round pick in 2018, not in the 3rd round.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby longtimefan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:58 pm

pens_CT wrote:
ville5 wrote:
lemieuxReturns wrote:I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.

That 3rd was used to acquire Hallander who was used....


Hallander was a 2nd round pick in 2018, not in the 3rd round.


And all the result of one of the few trades hat met with overwhelming approval of the fan base.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby ville5 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:17 pm

pens_CT wrote:
ville5 wrote:
lemieuxReturns wrote:I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.

That 3rd was used to acquire Hallander who was used....


Hallander was a 2nd round pick in 2018, not in the 3rd round.

That 3rd was used to acquire the 2nd that the Pens used.....
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby pens_CT on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:33 pm

longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
ville5 wrote:
lemieuxReturns wrote:I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.

That 3rd was used to acquire Hallander who was used....


Hallander was a 2nd round pick in 2018, not in the 3rd round.


And all the result of one of the few trades hat met with overwhelming approval of the fan base.


Please don't confuse the issue with facts. :D
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:39 pm

Check the tape, there were quite a few people me included who liked Brassard but didn't like giving up Cole.

A lot of people argued including MM that bottom pairing defensemen are a dime a dozen. That Cole was easily replaceable.

Then we signed JJ and haven't won a playoff series since.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby Jim on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:44 pm

I paid $30 for steaks last week. Now all I have is some empty packaging in the trash.

$30 gone!

Steaks gone!

Poop gone!

Literally just trash left, and soon that will be gone!

Horrible asset management!!!
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby longtimefan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:49 pm

https://theathletic.com/2065444/2020/09 ... -penguins/

Yohe ha an article today suggesting all signs point to the return of Botterill. It's about the lost staff over the last several years, and how it's put a strain on the front office. They seem to want to add, and JR said there won't be financial constraints standing in his way.

“To be honest with you, I’ve been looking at this and thinking about this for a while now,” Rutherford said. “It’s tough to lose that many people, that many good people. It’s something that I think would be good to address.”

Then, Rutherford took things a step further.

“I think it’s a priority,” Rutherford said. “Right now, it’s a very real priority for us. If we can locate the right person at the right time, it’s something that we need to make happen. It’s a priority.”


However, I found this quote and believe it epitomizes JR's managerial style.

Rutherford, only 10 months after being inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame, has produced a fascinating six-year reign as Penguins general manager. His teams have twice claimed the Stanley Cup and have never missed the Stanley Cup playoffs. They’ve also flamed out in the past two postseasons, provoking verbal jabs from the general manager toward the team on both occasions.

The mighty Penguins have lost nine of their past 10 postseason games. Like any general manager would, Rutherford has received his share of criticism during this time.

It would be inaccurate to suggest Rutherford is overwhelmed or failing. Rather, he’s doing what he’s always done. Rutherford is the ultimate home run hitter, a general manager who only really cares about championships. Making the playoffs and winning a round might quietly satisfy some general managers in hockey, but not this one. He never met a trade he didn’t at least consider. Bigger is better. It’s just his way, for better or worse. For the most part, it’s been for the better.


Taking it one step further is this view of JR's job stability.

When the Sabres came calling for Botterill’s services, the Penguins weren’t about to block him, nor make promises they couldn’t keep. They couldn’t promise him the job of Penguins general manager because they didn’t — and still don’t — know when Rutherford will retire. Rutherford is eager to be the general manager, and the Penguins believe he’s earned the right to exit when he’s ready.


Yohe suggested if Botterill wants the job, it's his for the taking. It's just not known if he wants back in yet. The Sabres are paying him for two more seasons.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:50 pm

pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
ville5 wrote:
lemieuxReturns wrote:I just want to write this out so i can be even more upset:
Penguins get:
Brassard
Vincent Dunn
Tobias Lindberg
2018 3rd Rd Pick (Ottawa)

For:
Ian Cole
Filip Gustavasson
2018 1st round pick
2019 3rd round pick

Then the Penguins trade Brassard:
Nick Bjugstad
Mared McCann

For
Brassard
Sheahan
2019 2nd Rd pick
2019 4th Rd Pick
2019 4th Rd Pick (minny)

Then we trade Bjugstad @ 50% retained salary for:
conditional 7th rd pick

So what is left is :
McCann RFA who might not be retained for cap reasons (which Bjugstad trade doesnt help with).

Is that about right?

Wow, that's bad.

That 3rd was used to acquire Hallander who was used....


Hallander was a 2nd round pick in 2018, not in the 3rd round.


And all the result of one of the few trades hat met with overwhelming approval of the fan base.


Please don't confuse the issue with facts. :D

I've been pretty clear with two points in the responses to this thread:

1) At the time of the Brassard trade, I was very much for it. The intent of the trade was good....to get a 3C with low-level 2C ability.

2) The ratings of the trades that I posted in this thread were done with the end result in mind, not the 1 hour after the trade. My criteria for rating the trades was, in the end, what did the trade yield? Did the player obtained meet expectations? Did the players given up go on to shine?

If you are trying to create an evaluation, you need to create a standard. I can't evaluate trade A when it happens, and trade B 3 years later. In my case, I chose to evaluate everything "down the road," ie, how did the player perform, what did we give up, etc....not, on paper, based on how player X played previously

As an example (completely made up), if GMJR traded for Conor McDavid by giving up 3 1st round picks, Samuel Poulin and John Marino......and McDavid came here, played only 15 games and had a serious injury, causing him to miss the season, and all subsequent seasons his numbers dropped by 40%.....I'd rate that trade an F.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby pens_CT on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:59 pm

longtimefan wrote:https://theathletic.com/2065444/2020/09/14/yohe-all-roads-seem-to-lead-to-jason-botterills-return-to-the-penguins/

Yohe ha an article today suggesting all signs point to the return of Botterill. It's about the lost staff over the last several years, and how it's put a strain on the front office. They seem to want to add, and JR said there won't be financial constraints standing in his way.

“To be honest with you, I’ve been looking at this and thinking about this for a while now,” Rutherford said. “It’s tough to lose that many people, that many good people. It’s something that I think would be good to address.”

Then, Rutherford took things a step further.

“I think it’s a priority,” Rutherford said. “Right now, it’s a very real priority for us. If we can locate the right person at the right time, it’s something that we need to make happen. It’s a priority.”


However, I found this quote and believe it epitomizes JR's managerial style.

Rutherford, only 10 months after being inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame, has produced a fascinating six-year reign as Penguins general manager. His teams have twice claimed the Stanley Cup and have never missed the Stanley Cup playoffs. They’ve also flamed out in the past two postseasons, provoking verbal jabs from the general manager toward the team on both occasions.

The mighty Penguins have lost nine of their past 10 postseason games. Like any general manager would, Rutherford has received his share of criticism during this time.

It would be inaccurate to suggest Rutherford is overwhelmed or failing. Rather, he’s doing what he’s always done. Rutherford is the ultimate home run hitter, a general manager who only really cares about championships. Making the playoffs and winning a round might quietly satisfy some general managers in hockey, but not this one. He never met a trade he didn’t at least consider. Bigger is better. It’s just his way, for better or worse. For the most part, it’s been for the better.


Taking it one step further is this view of JR's job stability.

When the Sabres came calling for Botterill’s services, the Penguins weren’t about to block him, nor make promises they couldn’t keep. They couldn’t promise him the job of Penguins general manager because they didn’t — and still don’t — know when Rutherford will retire. Rutherford is eager to be the general manager, and the Penguins believe he’s earned the right to exit when he’s ready.


Yohe suggested if Botterill wants the job, it's his for the taking. It's just not known if he wants back in yet. The Sabres are paying him for two more seasons.


I would guess he's making more money sitting home and collecting Pegula's paychecks than taking a job with the Penguins. He might want Pegula to keep doing that for a while before he takes another job.
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Re: Detailed Analysis of The Penguin trades of GMJR

Postby longtimefan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:19 pm

FLPensFan wrote:I've been pretty clear with two points in the responses to this thread:

1) At the time of the Brassard trade, I was very much for it. The intent of the trade was good....to get a 3C with low-level 2C ability.

2) The ratings of the trades that I posted in this thread were done with the end result in mind, not the 1 hour after the trade. My criteria for rating the trades was, in the end, what did the trade yield? Did the player obtained meet expectations? Did the players given up go on to shine?

If you are trying to create an evaluation, you need to create a standard. I can't evaluate trade A when it happens, and trade B 3 years later. In my case, I chose to evaluate everything "down the road," ie, how did the player perform, what did we give up, etc....not, on paper, based on how player X played previously

As an example (completely made up), if GMJR traded for Conor McDavid by giving up 3 1st round picks, Samuel Poulin and John Marino......and McDavid came here, played only 15 games and had a serious injury, causing him to miss the season, and all subsequent seasons his numbers dropped by 40%.....I'd rate that trade an F.


I don't think a lot of people are disputing your grades in any meaningful way based on your definition. But your definition allows for 20/20 hindsight. Part of it is his volume of work and his style. He will continue to move things around until he finds a mix he's comfortable with. If you make 51 deals since 2014, you're going to win some, lose some, and have a great many grade out as average.

Would you be more comfortable with Kevin Cheveldayoff, someone at the opposite end of the spectrum? He was hired in 2011. He made news at the deadline in 2018 when he brought in Statsny at the deadline. Many viewed it as his first significant trade. Including the day he was acquired, he's made 15 deals since that day. Before that, he made 24 trades in almost seven years. The biggest was moving Kane to Buffalo, and he didn't have a choice. The only other of any note was bringing in Frolik for draft picks. He's become much more active since acquiring Stastny, but has been criticized for largely sitting on his hands and doing nothing for the majority of his tenure.

http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/tra ... ayoff/94/1
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