Where does the roster go from here?

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Where does the roster go from here?

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:00 pm

So, here lies the major issue with the roster as it sits right now. Assume Murray gets traded. And to make this discussion easier, assume that the return is nothing for the NHL roster. It's picks and prospects. If that is the case:

--I show 10 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 1 goalie (18 players) with 9.84M in cap space remaining.
--That is including ZAR, so, move him to LTIR to start the season and you get 17 players, 10.84M in cap space. You are going to need to leave about 1.8M in cap space to take ZAR off of LTIR and have room for callups....and remember, GMJR is not mandated to spend below the cap, but it sounds like he would prefer to be in the 75-77M range (leaving almost 4M in cap space).

--I think the highest value contract Jarry should get right now is 4M, and I think McCann's highest should be 3.5M. I'd like to see both players come in for 250-500K less, but, let's go with those for now.
--Jarry 1 year, 4M; McCann 2 years, 3.5M
--That gives you a 20 man roster....10F, 7D, 2G. You need 3 more forwards, minimum, and have only 3.3M to do so.
--You sign Lafferty and Angello both to 800K deals. Fair for both, plus, these guys both still have waiver exemption, which is very helpful.
--So, after adding those 2, you have 13F, 7D, 2G, 21 man roster and 1.749M in cap space. Remember, you need 1M to eventually pull ZAR off of LTIR. So you pull him off, go to 22 man roster with only 749K in cap space. You could gain 200K, up to 949K, by pulling ZAR off LTIR and sending one of Lafferty/Angello down to WBS.

So, herein lies the issue. ZAR is on LTIR to start, and your roster looks like this (adjust the top 6 wingers as you see fit):

Guentzel-Crosby-Kapanen
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Blueger-Hornqvist
Tanev-Lafferty-Angello

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Riikola-Ruhwedel
x-Johnson

Jarry
DeSmith

The issues:

1) You have no space to do anything. 1.749M isn't going to get you an upgraded 3C, and again, you need to account for ZAR coming off LTIR.
2) You've done nothing to upgrade the roster other than Kapanen. That's a far cry from the "change is coming" mandate GMJR has had this offseason.
3) You lack center depth, which was another big area GMJR planned to address. McCann has been tried at center. It hasn't worked well to date. Blueger or Lafferty taking that role is still a risk. If McCann, Blueger, or Lafferty can't seize the role, you have nothing in house, and you have no cap space to get a 3C level player.
4) You've blocked Poulin or O'Connor from making this club. Suppose either or both Poulin and O'Connor play well enough to make the club. OK, so that means Angello would likely need to get sent down to open up more cap space. Suppose that happens....and Poulin or O'Connor shine on the 4th line and need more playing time....where do you put them? Are you moving McCann or Hornqvist to the 4th line? That doesnt' seem very realistic.

This is why I had such an issue with retaining 50% of Bjugstad's salary/cap. There's nothing left right now to continue making changes. Suppose you get extremely lucky and someone trades for Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION of salary. Add 3.25M to 1.749M, which gives 4.99M. Add POJ to replace Johnson (POJ is 863K), and you are at 4.36M in cap space. That gives you just enough to sign Haula at 4M...assuming he takes it....and.....much bigger assumption.......assuming someone will actually take Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION. You'd have to send Angello/Lafferty to WBS to free up cap to pull ZAR off LTIR.

Johnson has to be moved, otherwise, you are likely looking at the roster above.
Ideally, Hornqvist is moved, with no retention. Either move him for a 3C somewhere, or move him for a pick. He would give enough to sign Haula, and have 2M more in extra wiggle room.

Tough task ahead for GMJR to do much of anything. The Hornqvist and Johnson contracts (and to some degree Tanev) are coming back to haunt him, just as many people said they would.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby pens_CT on Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:25 pm

FLPensFan wrote:So, here lies the major issue with the roster as it sits right now. Assume Murray gets traded. And to make this discussion easier, assume that the return is nothing for the NHL roster. It's picks and prospects. If that is the case:

--I show 10 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 1 goalie (18 players) with 9.84M in cap space remaining.
--That is including ZAR, so, move him to LTIR to start the season and you get 17 players, 10.84M in cap space. You are going to need to leave about 1.8M in cap space to take ZAR off of LTIR and have room for callups....and remember, GMJR is not mandated to spend below the cap, but it sounds like he would prefer to be in the 75-77M range (leaving almost 4M in cap space).

--I think the highest value contract Jarry should get right now is 4M, and I think McCann's highest should be 3.5M. I'd like to see both players come in for 250-500K less, but, let's go with those for now.
--Jarry 1 year, 4M; McCann 2 years, 3.5M
--That gives you a 20 man roster....10F, 7D, 2G. You need 3 more forwards, minimum, and have only 3.3M to do so.
--You sign Lafferty and Angello both to 800K deals. Fair for both, plus, these guys both still have waiver exemption, which is very helpful.
--So, after adding those 2, you have 13F, 7D, 2G, 21 man roster and 1.749M in cap space. Remember, you need 1M to eventually pull ZAR off of LTIR. So you pull him off, go to 22 man roster with only 749K in cap space. You could gain 200K, up to 949K, by pulling ZAR off LTIR and sending one of Lafferty/Angello down to WBS.

So, herein lies the issue. ZAR is on LTIR to start, and your roster looks like this (adjust the top 6 wingers as you see fit):

Guentzel-Crosby-Kapanen
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Blueger-Hornqvist
Tanev-Lafferty-Angello

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Riikola-Ruhwedel
x-Johnson

Jarry
DeSmith

The issues:

1) You have no space to do anything. 1.749M isn't going to get you an upgraded 3C, and again, you need to account for ZAR coming off LTIR.
2) You've done nothing to upgrade the roster other than Kapanen. That's a far cry from the "change is coming" mandate GMJR has had this offseason.
3) You lack center depth, which was another big area GMJR planned to address. McCann has been tried at center. It hasn't worked well to date. Blueger or Lafferty taking that role is still a risk. If McCann, Blueger, or Lafferty can't seize the role, you have nothing in house, and you have no cap space to get a 3C level player.
4) You've blocked Poulin or O'Connor from making this club. Suppose either or both Poulin and O'Connor play well enough to make the club. OK, so that means Angello would likely need to get sent down to open up more cap space. Suppose that happens....and Poulin or O'Connor shine on the 4th line and need more playing time....where do you put them? Are you moving McCann or Hornqvist to the 4th line? That doesnt' seem very realistic.

This is why I had such an issue with retaining 50% of Bjugstad's salary/cap. There's nothing left right now to continue making changes. Suppose you get extremely lucky and someone trades for Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION of salary. Add 3.25M to 1.749M, which gives 4.99M. Add POJ to replace Johnson (POJ is 863K), and you are at 4.36M in cap space. That gives you just enough to sign Haula at 4M...assuming he takes it....and.....much bigger assumption.......assuming someone will actually take Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION. You'd have to send Angello/Lafferty to WBS to free up cap to pull ZAR off LTIR.

Johnson has to be moved, otherwise, you are likely looking at the roster above.
Ideally, Hornqvist is moved, with no retention. Either move him for a 3C somewhere, or move him for a pick. He would give enough to sign Haula, and have 2M more in extra wiggle room.

Tough task ahead for GMJR to do much of anything. The Hornqvist and Johnson contracts (and to some degree Tanev) are coming back to haunt him, just as many people said they would.


No doubt the Johnson contract was a bad one. The Hornqvist contract the term was a couple of years too long, the dollar value at the time wasn't that far off, considering they had no one to replace him had he left. A UFA replacement, whoever that would have been wouldn't have come in cheap. The bigger issue is the frozen cap from the virus, nobody could have predicted that was coming when these deals were signed.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby GSdrums87 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:23 am

Yep. Your best case scenario is you get a 3C at a lower cap hit in a Hornqvist swap, and you manage to package JJ with Murray for an abysmal return. It's not looking promising.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby dark_forces on Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:41 am

FLPensFan wrote:So, here lies the major issue with the roster as it sits right now. Assume Murray gets traded. And to make this discussion easier, assume that the return is nothing for the NHL roster. It's picks and prospects. If that is the case:

--I show 10 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 1 goalie (18 players) with 9.84M in cap space remaining.
--That is including ZAR, so, move him to LTIR to start the season and you get 17 players, 10.84M in cap space. You are going to need to leave about 1.8M in cap space to take ZAR off of LTIR and have room for callups....and remember, GMJR is not mandated to spend below the cap, but it sounds like he would prefer to be in the 75-77M range (leaving almost 4M in cap space).

--I think the highest value contract Jarry should get right now is 4M, and I think McCann's highest should be 3.5M. I'd like to see both players come in for 250-500K less, but, let's go with those for now.
--Jarry 1 year, 4M; McCann 2 years, 3.5M
--That gives you a 20 man roster....10F, 7D, 2G. You need 3 more forwards, minimum, and have only 3.3M to do so.
--You sign Lafferty and Angello both to 800K deals. Fair for both, plus, these guys both still have waiver exemption, which is very helpful.
--So, after adding those 2, you have 13F, 7D, 2G, 21 man roster and 1.749M in cap space. Remember, you need 1M to eventually pull ZAR off of LTIR. So you pull him off, go to 22 man roster with only 749K in cap space. You could gain 200K, up to 949K, by pulling ZAR off LTIR and sending one of Lafferty/Angello down to WBS.

So, herein lies the issue. ZAR is on LTIR to start, and your roster looks like this (adjust the top 6 wingers as you see fit):

Guentzel-Crosby-Kapanen
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Blueger-Hornqvist
Tanev-Lafferty-Angello

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Riikola-Ruhwedel
x-Johnson

Jarry
DeSmith

The issues:

1) You have no space to do anything. 1.749M isn't going to get you an upgraded 3C, and again, you need to account for ZAR coming off LTIR.
2) You've done nothing to upgrade the roster other than Kapanen. That's a far cry from the "change is coming" mandate GMJR has had this offseason.
3) You lack center depth, which was another big area GMJR planned to address. McCann has been tried at center. It hasn't worked well to date. Blueger or Lafferty taking that role is still a risk. If McCann, Blueger, or Lafferty can't seize the role, you have nothing in house, and you have no cap space to get a 3C level player.
4) You've blocked Poulin or O'Connor from making this club. Suppose either or both Poulin and O'Connor play well enough to make the club. OK, so that means Angello would likely need to get sent down to open up more cap space. Suppose that happens....and Poulin or O'Connor shine on the 4th line and need more playing time....where do you put them? Are you moving McCann or Hornqvist to the 4th line? That doesnt' seem very realistic.

This is why I had such an issue with retaining 50% of Bjugstad's salary/cap. There's nothing left right now to continue making changes. Suppose you get extremely lucky and someone trades for Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION of salary. Add 3.25M to 1.749M, which gives 4.99M. Add POJ to replace Johnson (POJ is 863K), and you are at 4.36M in cap space. That gives you just enough to sign Haula at 4M...assuming he takes it....and.....much bigger assumption.......assuming someone will actually take Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION. You'd have to send Angello/Lafferty to WBS to free up cap to pull ZAR off LTIR.

Johnson has to be moved, otherwise, you are likely looking at the roster above.
Ideally, Hornqvist is moved, with no retention. Either move him for a 3C somewhere, or move him for a pick. He would give enough to sign Haula, and have 2M more in extra wiggle room.

Tough task ahead for GMJR to do much of anything. The Hornqvist and Johnson contracts (and to some degree Tanev) are coming back to haunt him, just as many people said they would.

Where's Simon in your scenario? I would imagine they bring him back on a 1 year "show me" contract.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:28 am

dark_forces wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:So, here lies the major issue with the roster as it sits right now. Assume Murray gets traded. And to make this discussion easier, assume that the return is nothing for the NHL roster. It's picks and prospects. If that is the case:

--I show 10 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 1 goalie (18 players) with 9.84M in cap space remaining.
--That is including ZAR, so, move him to LTIR to start the season and you get 17 players, 10.84M in cap space. You are going to need to leave about 1.8M in cap space to take ZAR off of LTIR and have room for callups....and remember, GMJR is not mandated to spend below the cap, but it sounds like he would prefer to be in the 75-77M range (leaving almost 4M in cap space).

--I think the highest value contract Jarry should get right now is 4M, and I think McCann's highest should be 3.5M. I'd like to see both players come in for 250-500K less, but, let's go with those for now.
--Jarry 1 year, 4M; McCann 2 years, 3.5M
--That gives you a 20 man roster....10F, 7D, 2G. You need 3 more forwards, minimum, and have only 3.3M to do so.
--You sign Lafferty and Angello both to 800K deals. Fair for both, plus, these guys both still have waiver exemption, which is very helpful.
--So, after adding those 2, you have 13F, 7D, 2G, 21 man roster and 1.749M in cap space. Remember, you need 1M to eventually pull ZAR off of LTIR. So you pull him off, go to 22 man roster with only 749K in cap space. You could gain 200K, up to 949K, by pulling ZAR off LTIR and sending one of Lafferty/Angello down to WBS.

So, herein lies the issue. ZAR is on LTIR to start, and your roster looks like this (adjust the top 6 wingers as you see fit):

Guentzel-Crosby-Kapanen
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Blueger-Hornqvist
Tanev-Lafferty-Angello

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Riikola-Ruhwedel
x-Johnson

Jarry
DeSmith

The issues:

1) You have no space to do anything. 1.749M isn't going to get you an upgraded 3C, and again, you need to account for ZAR coming off LTIR.
2) You've done nothing to upgrade the roster other than Kapanen. That's a far cry from the "change is coming" mandate GMJR has had this offseason.
3) You lack center depth, which was another big area GMJR planned to address. McCann has been tried at center. It hasn't worked well to date. Blueger or Lafferty taking that role is still a risk. If McCann, Blueger, or Lafferty can't seize the role, you have nothing in house, and you have no cap space to get a 3C level player.
4) You've blocked Poulin or O'Connor from making this club. Suppose either or both Poulin and O'Connor play well enough to make the club. OK, so that means Angello would likely need to get sent down to open up more cap space. Suppose that happens....and Poulin or O'Connor shine on the 4th line and need more playing time....where do you put them? Are you moving McCann or Hornqvist to the 4th line? That doesnt' seem very realistic.

This is why I had such an issue with retaining 50% of Bjugstad's salary/cap. There's nothing left right now to continue making changes. Suppose you get extremely lucky and someone trades for Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION of salary. Add 3.25M to 1.749M, which gives 4.99M. Add POJ to replace Johnson (POJ is 863K), and you are at 4.36M in cap space. That gives you just enough to sign Haula at 4M...assuming he takes it....and.....much bigger assumption.......assuming someone will actually take Jack Johnson with NO RETENTION. You'd have to send Angello/Lafferty to WBS to free up cap to pull ZAR off LTIR.

Johnson has to be moved, otherwise, you are likely looking at the roster above.
Ideally, Hornqvist is moved, with no retention. Either move him for a 3C somewhere, or move him for a pick. He would give enough to sign Haula, and have 2M more in extra wiggle room.

Tough task ahead for GMJR to do much of anything. The Hornqvist and Johnson contracts (and to some degree Tanev) are coming back to haunt him, just as many people said they would.

Where's Simon in your scenario? I would imagine they bring him back on a 1 year "show me" contract.

I dont see the room to fit him, cap wise or position in the lineup. Hes not a 4th liner. There's no room in top 6 wings. Hornqvist and McCann right now are 3rd line wings. Where does he go? Hes going to cost over 1M to sign. Just no space.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby longtimefan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:55 am

Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
This trade is an indication of how tough it's going to be to move money during the 2020 NHL off-season: Pittsburgh may end up with nothing more than the $2.05M in extra cap room (plus $2.625M in actu al salary saved) in exchange for Bjugstad.


You can only do a fair comparison if you look around the league.
-The Pens have just under $9M with 19 players under contract.
-Tampa has just over $5.3M with 15 players under contract.
-The Caps have about $8.9M but with 17 players. They also only have 4 defenseman under contract.
-The Leafs have 18 players signed with a shade more than $6.1M in cap room. They still have Kessel counting $1.2M against the cap for 2 more seasons.
-Carolina has 17 players under contract, the same as he Pens. Their cap space is a bit under $7.8M. One of JR's biggest mistakes there was signing Semin, who still counts $2.333333 against their cap.
-Philly has almost $100K less cap space than the Pens, but only 15 roster players under contract. They are still on the hook for Andrew MacDonald for a little over $1.9M, and David Schlemko for $600K.
-Chicago has just over $8M with 17 players under contract. Without a goaltender.
-Nashville has less than $8.2M with 18 players signed.
-St Louis does have 22 players, but less than $5.2M in space. They also have to sign UFA Pietrangelo.
-The Jets do have over $15.5M in cap space, but only 13 players and just 4 defensemen.
-The Ducks have less than $550K in cap space with only 21 players.
-Arizona has just over $1.1M with a roster of 17.
-Vegas has just under $5M with 18 players.

That's at least 12 teams in a cap position worse or at least equally as bad as the Pens. That's 40% of the other 30 teams. Some of the others have their own issues. Especially if the rumor of numerous teams wanting to stay in the lower to mid 70's against the cap comes to fruition. The trade with Minny seems to bear this out. They had the space to absorb all of Nick's contract, but they'd only do the deal with 50% retention. On an expiring contract. That's a very ominous sign.

“You’ve got to realize that teams don’t know how much money they’ll be making next season and moving forward,” he said. “Plus, teams all thought (before the pandemic) the salary cap for next season was going to be anywhere between $3 million and $6 million higher than what it is. So, everyone is in a pretty difficult situation, and that includes us.”


“It’s been an extremely busy five or six weeks,” he said. “Phone is ringing a lot. There’s a lot of talk about a lot of things around the league right now. Everybody is trying to put themselves in a spot where they are comfortable financially. In today’s climate, it’s really tough. Everyone is trying to make deals, but coming up with fair deals is really hard. Everyone is worried about the cap. Everyone. Not just this year, but into the future. And remember, we have an expansion draft next season. There are so, so many variables right now. It’s just not easy for anyone. But that said, we have some moves to make, and we’d like to change this team around.”


Those are JR's quotes after moving Bjugstad. It's no secret that the NHL is more reliant on gate receipts than the NFL, MLB, and NBA. They don't have the TV contract the others do. The contract is up, and they should see a nice increase after completing a decade long deal, but if their are no fans or a small percentage of capacity, coupled with a possibly truncated season, it's going to be a tough haul for several franchises. There's many teams that struggle financially under normal circumstances. There may be teams like Colorado that believe they're close and may throw a big one year deal at Taylor Hall. That would be the exception though. There will be a great many more teams looking to unload payroll. Remember there seems to be at least a few owners that would rather cancel the season than have the expense of operating their arenas if there aren't any fans. It's a losing proposition.

So a lot of teams are cap strapped, and others that aren't financially healthy enough to navigate the coming storm. They want to minimize their losses by implementing a self imposed cap. Some by choice, some without a choice.

That's the climate. No doubt the Pens have some issues, but they have a ton of company. And no one is to blame. The pandemic is. The problem contracts wouldn't be nearly as significant with a higher cap. The problem contracts would have been easier to dispose of without teams instituting self imposed caps. Completely unforeseen, but now you have to navigate it.

The biggest issue I have is people taking shots at JR without anything to compare it to. He's made two of only three NHL trades since the shutdown. He's setting the market. Not as a favor to Guerin, but based on the input from every GM in the league.

Everyone is worried about the cap. Everyone. Not just this year, but into the future.


His emphasis is pretty clear. Everyone. And right now there's no light at the end of the tunnel. In order to judge what he's done, you have to wait and see what happens when the market opens up. The top FA's will still cash in, although at a lower rate than they would have received at an $84M-$87M cap. The players who will get crushed are the mid tier and lower tier guys. Haula is a player I'd expect to get $4M+, but if he does, I'd expect one year. Teams will shy away from long term deals. Unless the $$$ are less. Perhaps that's $3.0 to $3.5M for Haula. Why should he consider that? Because of the same issues the owners have. There's no light at the end of the tunnel. It will normalize eventually. But not next season or the following. Unless there's a miracle which allows them to play before capacity crowds this winter.

Having said all that, I would point out your projections are premature. He was also quoted as giving an emphatic one word yes answer when asked if there would be more trades. That's as blunt as he can be. No doubt he has his work cut out for him. There would be a few adjustments I'd make to your projections. I don't believe McCann will receive $3.5M. Perhaps $2.5M or $3.0M. If he's not agreeable, they'll move him. I also don't see them going over the minimum for Lafferty or Angello. Not in this climate. There's no need. I tend to agree on Jarry, although I believe they will push for a 3 year deal. Which may cost a bit more since you're buying a UFA season.

If the worst were to happen, you simply move McCann. Based on your model, keeping Poulin and moving McCann adds $2.575M in available space at your $3.5M projection. So there is an avenue. Plus there will likely be a number of bottom six forwards available for under $1M on the depressed UFA market. That's the bleakest outlook. As the roster now stands, things are not going to improve the season after. Of the 19 contracts, only three are expiring. All RFA's. Marino, Blueger, and ZAR. Marino likely is looking at $4M+ if he has a similar second season. Which is substantially more by itself what the three combined now make. It's possible Seattle will take a contract. Hopefully JJ or Hornqvist, but, if not, possibly Tanev. That still isn't going to buy much room. They'll be right up against the cap again. Especially if they take Blueger and leave Tanev's contract. Which has to be what the Pens prepare for. Of course a lot will happen between now and then, but that's the position they're in right now. So they have to keep that in mind. You have to do the best you can.

It's not JR's fault, and it isn't because of bad contracts. They have very few compared to a lot of others. Sure, they complicate things. They're also par for the course under a cap system. Look around. No one could have predicted COVID. That's true throughout the league. It doesn't mean all is lost. The Caps had to go with cheap options because of the cap the season they won the cup. JR isn't giving up. He says he'll do whatever is possible. I believe that's a fact. However, he's likely going to have to adjust his expectations. As will the fans. But as the Caps showed, sometimes you find out you have more in terms of younger players than you think in the system. The Pens found out the same thing in 2016. It's not ideal. But it's part of the climate. It's not the Pens. It's the league. There will be chaos after the cup is awarded. I assume JR will be right in the middle of it, trying to find a way to augment the window. It's going to be tough. But it's all they can do.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby Cow_Master66 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:39 am

It will open up some $ when they deal Malkin out west.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby Steve Dave on Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:15 am

Worst case scenario as of now:

Murray is traded for pick/prospect.
Simon is let go/traded due to cap.
Jarry signs for $3.800.
McCann signs for $2.250.
Lafferty signs for $.750.
Angello signs for $.700.
Aston-Reese is either traded or starts season on LTIR.
This leaves approx. $2.350 to sign a UFA for the 3rd pairing on D.

Zucker Crosby Kapanen
Guentzel Malkin Rust
McCann Blueger Hornqvist
O’Connor Lafferty Tanev
Angello

Dumoulin Letang
Pettersson Marino
Johnson UFA
Riikola Ruhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby DelPen on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:15 am

You pretty much nailed it, want to upgrade the defense we need to move Johnson. Want to upgrade the third line we need to move Hornqvist, McCann or both. Biggest asset to make a huge move is use the value Murray had and write off bad contracts. There should be a team that wants him enough and had the cap space to take in Johnson and McCann either sending us back a 3C or picks and prospects and try over free agency.

I keep looking back at Colorado, they could use both Murray and Hornqvist and even Johnson if we take Grubauer back for his one year left which isn’t a bad insurance move if Jarry implodes.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:33 am

DelPen wrote:You pretty much nailed it, want to upgrade the defense we need to move Johnson. Want to upgrade the third line we need to move Hornqvist, McCann or both. Biggest asset to make a huge move is use the value Murray had and write off bad contracts. There should be a team that wants him enough and had the cap space to take in Johnson and McCann either sending us back a 3C or picks and prospects and try over free agency.

I keep looking back at Colorado, they could use both Murray and Hornqvist and even Johnson if we take Grubauer back for his one year left which isn’t a bad insurance move if Jarry implodes.


I dont see the appeal of moving McCann rightnow, he should be the 3LW. He had a horrible goal drought and still put up 35 points. If he builds on last season he's a good trade chip. I think his value will go up so id hold him.

He's a perfect stop gap until Poulin is ready. Sign McCann to a 1 or 2 year deal and move him for a position of need once Poulin is ready.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby pens_CT on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:34 am

longtimefan wrote:
Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
This trade is an indication of how tough it's going to be to move money during the 2020 NHL off-season: Pittsburgh may end up with nothing more than the $2.05M in extra cap room (plus $2.625M in actu al salary saved) in exchange for Bjugstad.


You can only do a fair comparison if you look around the league.
-The Pens have just under $9M with 19 players under contract.
-Tampa has just over $5.3M with 15 players under contract.
-The Caps have about $8.9M but with 17 players. They also only have 4 defenseman under contract.
-The Leafs have 18 players signed with a shade more than $6.1M in cap room. They still have Kessel counting $1.2M against the cap for 2 more seasons.
-Carolina has 17 players under contract, the same as he Pens. Their cap space is a bit under $7.8M. One of JR's biggest mistakes there was signing Semin, who still counts $2.333333 against their cap.
-Philly has almost $100K less cap space than the Pens, but only 15 roster players under contract. They are still on the hook for Andrew MacDonald for a little over $1.9M, and David Schlemko for $600K.
-Chicago has just over $8M with 17 players under contract. Without a goaltender.
-Nashville has less than $8.2M with 18 players signed.
-St Louis does have 22 players, but less than $5.2M in space. They also have to sign UFA Pietrangelo.
-The Jets do have over $15.5M in cap space, but only 13 players and just 4 defensemen.
-The Ducks have less than $550K in cap space with only 21 players.
-Arizona has just over $1.1M with a roster of 17.
-Vegas has just under $5M with 18 players.

That's at least 12 teams in a cap position worse or at least equally as bad as the Pens. That's 40% of the other 30 teams. Some of the others have their own issues. Especially if the rumor of numerous teams wanting to stay in the lower to mid 70's against the cap comes to fruition. The trade with Minny seems to bear this out. They had the space to absorb all of Nick's contract, but they'd only do the deal with 50% retention. On an expiring contract. That's a very ominous sign.

“You’ve got to realize that teams don’t know how much money they’ll be making next season and moving forward,” he said. “Plus, teams all thought (before the pandemic) the salary cap for next season was going to be anywhere between $3 million and $6 million higher than what it is. So, everyone is in a pretty difficult situation, and that includes us.”


“It’s been an extremely busy five or six weeks,” he said. “Phone is ringing a lot. There’s a lot of talk about a lot of things around the league right now. Everybody is trying to put themselves in a spot where they are comfortable financially. In today’s climate, it’s really tough. Everyone is trying to make deals, but coming up with fair deals is really hard. Everyone is worried about the cap. Everyone. Not just this year, but into the future. And remember, we have an expansion draft next season. There are so, so many variables right now. It’s just not easy for anyone. But that said, we have some moves to make, and we’d like to change this team around.”


Those are JR's quotes after moving Bjugstad. It's no secret that the NHL is more reliant on gate receipts than the NFL, MLB, and NBA. They don't have the TV contract the others do. The contract is up, and they should see a nice increase after completing a decade long deal, but if their are no fans or a small percentage of capacity, coupled with a possibly truncated season, it's going to be a tough haul for several franchises. There's many teams that struggle financially under normal circumstances. There may be teams like Colorado that believe they're close and may throw a big one year deal at Taylor Hall. That would be the exception though. There will be a great many more teams looking to unload payroll. Remember there seems to be at least a few owners that would rather cancel the season than have the expense of operating their arenas if there aren't any fans. It's a losing proposition.

So a lot of teams are cap strapped, and others that aren't financially healthy enough to navigate the coming storm. They want to minimize their losses by implementing a self imposed cap. Some by choice, some without a choice.

That's the climate. No doubt the Pens have some issues, but they have a ton of company. And no one is to blame. The pandemic is. The problem contracts wouldn't be nearly as significant with a higher cap. The problem contracts would have been easier to dispose of without teams instituting self imposed caps. Completely unforeseen, but now you have to navigate it.

The biggest issue I have is people taking shots at JR without anything to compare it to. He's made two of only three NHL trades since the shutdown. He's setting the market. Not as a favor to Guerin, but based on the input from every GM in the league.

Everyone is worried about the cap. Everyone. Not just this year, but into the future.


His emphasis is pretty clear. Everyone. And right now there's no light at the end of the tunnel. In order to judge what he's done, you have to wait and see what happens when the market opens up. The top FA's will still cash in, although at a lower rate than they would have received at an $84M-$87M cap. The players who will get crushed are the mid tier and lower tier guys. Haula is a player I'd expect to get $4M+, but if he does, I'd expect one year. Teams will shy away from long term deals. Unless the $$$ are less. Perhaps that's $3.0 to $3.5M for Haula. Why should he consider that? Because of the same issues the owners have. There's no light at the end of the tunnel. It will normalize eventually. But not next season or the following. Unless there's a miracle which allows them to play before capacity crowds this winter.

Having said all that, I would point out your projections are premature. He was also quoted as giving an emphatic one word yes answer when asked if there would be more trades. That's as blunt as he can be. No doubt he has his work cut out for him. There would be a few adjustments I'd make to your projections. I don't believe McCann will receive $3.5M. Perhaps $2.5M or $3.0M. If he's not agreeable, they'll move him. I also don't see them going over the minimum for Lafferty or Angello. Not in this climate. There's no need. I tend to agree on Jarry, although I believe they will push for a 3 year deal. Which may cost a bit more since you're buying a UFA season.

If the worst were to happen, you simply move McCann. Based on your model, keeping Poulin and moving McCann adds $2.575M in available space at your $3.5M projection. So there is an avenue. Plus there will likely be a number of bottom six forwards available for under $1M on the depressed UFA market. That's the bleakest outlook. As the roster now stands, things are not going to improve the season after. Of the 19 contracts, only three are expiring. All RFA's. Marino, Blueger, and ZAR. Marino likely is looking at $4M+ if he has a similar second season. Which is substantially more by itself what the three combined now make. It's possible Seattle will take a contract. Hopefully JJ or Hornqvist, but, if not, possibly Tanev. That still isn't going to buy much room. They'll be right up against the cap again. Especially if they take Blueger and leave Tanev's contract. Which has to be what the Pens prepare for. Of course a lot will happen between now and then, but that's the position they're in right now. So they have to keep that in mind. You have to do the best you can.

It's not JR's fault, and it isn't because of bad contracts. They have very few compared to a lot of others. Sure, they complicate things. They're also par for the course under a cap system. Look around. No one could have predicted COVID. That's true throughout the league. It doesn't mean all is lost. The Caps had to go with cheap options because of the cap the season they won the cup. JR isn't giving up. He says he'll do whatever is possible. I believe that's a fact. However, he's likely going to have to adjust his expectations. As will the fans. But as the Caps showed, sometimes you find out you have more in terms of younger players than you think in the system. The Pens found out the same thing in 2016. It's not ideal. But it's part of the climate. It's not the Pens. It's the league. There will be chaos after the cup is awarded. I assume JR will be right in the middle of it, trying to find a way to augment the window. It's going to be tough. But it's all they can do.


Wells said. People here freak out because of a couple bad contracts, but as you pointed out there are a bunch of teams in far worse shape. The way out of this is getting contributions from Poulin, O'Connor, POJ, maybe Maniscalco, and less likely from Legare next season. Hopefully they can move enough money to get a legitimate 3C in here, because the organization has zero depth at the center position.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby pens_CT on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:37 am

thehockeyguru wrote:
DelPen wrote:You pretty much nailed it, want to upgrade the defense we need to move Johnson. Want to upgrade the third line we need to move Hornqvist, McCann or both. Biggest asset to make a huge move is use the value Murray had and write off bad contracts. There should be a team that wants him enough and had the cap space to take in Johnson and McCann either sending us back a 3C or picks and prospects and try over free agency.

I keep looking back at Colorado, they could use both Murray and Hornqvist and even Johnson if we take Grubauer back for his one year left which isn’t a bad insurance move if Jarry implodes.


I dont see the appeal of moving McCann rightnow, he should be the 3LW. He had a horrible goal drought and still put up 35 points. If he builds on last season he's a good trade chip. I think his value will go up so id hold him.

He's a perfect stop gap until Poulin is ready. Sign McCann to a 1 or 2 year deal and move him for a position of need once Poulin is ready.


If he is looking for near 3 million next year, then move him. Unless he is scoring goals, what does he bring to this team? The guy went 20 plus games without scoring a goal, you can't give him that kind of money with a frozen cap.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:43 am

pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
DelPen wrote:You pretty much nailed it, want to upgrade the defense we need to move Johnson. Want to upgrade the third line we need to move Hornqvist, McCann or both. Biggest asset to make a huge move is use the value Murray had and write off bad contracts. There should be a team that wants him enough and had the cap space to take in Johnson and McCann either sending us back a 3C or picks and prospects and try over free agency.

I keep looking back at Colorado, they could use both Murray and Hornqvist and even Johnson if we take Grubauer back for his one year left which isn’t a bad insurance move if Jarry implodes.


I dont see the appeal of moving McCann rightnow, he should be the 3LW. He had a horrible goal drought and still put up 35 points. If he builds on last season he's a good trade chip. I think his value will go up so id hold him.

He's a perfect stop gap until Poulin is ready. Sign McCann to a 1 or 2 year deal and move him for a position of need once Poulin is ready.


If he is looking for near 3 million next year, then move him. Unless he is scoring goals, what does he bring to this team? The guy went 20 plus games without scoring a goal, you can't give him that kind of money with a frozen cap.


Typically players get 100k per point. Given his age McCann would likely be a 3-3.5M player as a free agent. Give him a 1-2yr 2.75-3M deal and leave him at his best position LW. He's 24, let him continue to grow and stop experimenting with position changes.. The team wants to get younger and faster you dont do that by shipping out 24 yr olds with 20 goal potential.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby KG on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:50 am

GSdrums87 wrote:Yep. Your best case scenario is you get a 3C at a lower cap hit in a Hornqvist swap, and you manage to package JJ with Murray for an abysmal return. It's not looking promising.


This. That's the way I see it too. Horny and JMFJ have to go if we want to see significant changes to the roster.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:52 am

longtimefan wrote:You can only do a fair comparison if you look around the league.
-The Pens have just under $9M with 19 players under contract.
-Tampa has just over $5.3M with 15 players under contract.
-The Caps have about $8.9M but with 17 players. They also only have 4 defenseman under contract.
-The Leafs have 18 players signed with a shade more than $6.1M in cap room. They still have Kessel counting $1.2M against the cap for 2 more seasons.
-Carolina has 17 players under contract, the same as he Pens. Their cap space is a bit under $7.8M. One of JR's biggest mistakes there was signing Semin, who still counts $2.333333 against their cap.
-Philly has almost $100K less cap space than the Pens, but only 15 roster players under contract. They are still on the hook for Andrew MacDonald for a little over $1.9M, and David Schlemko for $600K.
-Chicago has just over $8M with 17 players under contract. Without a goaltender.
-Nashville has less than $8.2M with 18 players signed.
-St Louis does have 22 players, but less than $5.2M in space. They also have to sign UFA Pietrangelo.
-The Jets do have over $15.5M in cap space, but only 13 players and just 4 defensemen.
-The Ducks have less than $550K in cap space with only 21 players.
-Arizona has just over $1.1M with a roster of 17.
-Vegas has just under $5M with 18 players.

That's at least 12 teams in a cap position worse or at least equally as bad as the Pens. That's 40% of the other 30 teams. Some of the others have their own issues. Especially if the rumor of numerous teams wanting to stay in the lower to mid 70's against the cap comes to fruition. The trade with Minny seems to bear this out. They had the space to absorb all of Nick's contract, but they'd only do the deal with 50% retention. On an expiring contract. That's a very ominous sign.


--Tampa will be in trouble. They have both Cirrelli and Sergachev who will need major raises as RFAs. (Note, if GMJR could clear some other salary, would anyone do a McCann for Tyler Johnson swap? Johnson can play C even though he has played W the last few years)

--The Caps will be in trouble with limited cap space and arguably the worst farm system in the league. They may have to try and dump a bigger salary.

--The Leafs....everyone has seen this coming. Expect the Leafs to try and trade for ANY decent sized dead contract left in the league. There aren't many, but, they skated by last year because they had Nathan Horton and David Clarkson contracts. Those expired this offseason, so they aren't getting that 10M in LTIR space they had.

What I could see with some of these teams is, they may have to start dealing draft picks for average prospects on ELC. Guys that are good enough to play in the league, but are more top 9, bottom 4 type guys rather than top 6, top 4 guys.

However, again, you had GMJR out there talking about how the team wanted to be active, lots of changes are coming, etc, etc, instead of talking about how he would LIKE TO BE ACTIVE, but needs to see what the landscape is with a flat cap. GMJR brings a lot of heat on himself by being such a blabbermouth. Of course, I don't expect him to sit here and tell me "We cannot make any moves. There is no cap space." or "I am targeting Joe Juneau and Dick Tarnstrom in free agency," but he makes comments, often and seemingly every year, that serve no purpose and make him look like a fool.

I applaud him for getting 2 deals done early, but again, I look squarely at the Johnson, Hornqvist, and Tanev deals right now, on how they all got 500K-1M overpaid, and how they all got too much term. It is coming back with a vengeance right now.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby pens_CT on Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:04 am

thehockeyguru wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
DelPen wrote:You pretty much nailed it, want to upgrade the defense we need to move Johnson. Want to upgrade the third line we need to move Hornqvist, McCann or both. Biggest asset to make a huge move is use the value Murray had and write off bad contracts. There should be a team that wants him enough and had the cap space to take in Johnson and McCann either sending us back a 3C or picks and prospects and try over free agency.

I keep looking back at Colorado, they could use both Murray and Hornqvist and even Johnson if we take Grubauer back for his one year left which isn’t a bad insurance move if Jarry implodes.


I dont see the appeal of moving McCann rightnow, he should be the 3LW. He had a horrible goal drought and still put up 35 points. If he builds on last season he's a good trade chip. I think his value will go up so id hold him.

He's a perfect stop gap until Poulin is ready. Sign McCann to a 1 or 2 year deal and move him for a position of need once Poulin is ready.


If he is looking for near 3 million next year, then move him. Unless he is scoring goals, what does he bring to this team? The guy went 20 plus games without scoring a goal, you can't give him that kind of money with a frozen cap.


Typically players get 100k per point. Given his age McCann would likely be a 3-3.5M player as a free agent. Give him a 1-2yr 2.75-3M deal and leave him at his best position LW. He's 24, let him continue to grow and stop experimenting with position changes.. The team wants to get younger and faster you dont do that by shipping out 24 yr olds with 20 goal potential.


By signing him, you're essentially sending Poulin back to juniors without him being able to compete for a spot (barring injuries in camp). I'd at least see what the market will give up for McCann, I certainly wouldn't give him away for nothing, but giving a guy close to 3 million, even on a one year deal, when he didn't produce over a long stretch is a bad idea. If McCann has another year like this one, he will have nearly zero trade value. The old "potential" label means nothing until it turns into production.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby ville5 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:11 am

pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
DelPen wrote:You pretty much nailed it, want to upgrade the defense we need to move Johnson. Want to upgrade the third line we need to move Hornqvist, McCann or both. Biggest asset to make a huge move is use the value Murray had and write off bad contracts. There should be a team that wants him enough and had the cap space to take in Johnson and McCann either sending us back a 3C or picks and prospects and try over free agency.

I keep looking back at Colorado, they could use both Murray and Hornqvist and even Johnson if we take Grubauer back for his one year left which isn’t a bad insurance move if Jarry implodes.


I dont see the appeal of moving McCann rightnow, he should be the 3LW. He had a horrible goal drought and still put up 35 points. If he builds on last season he's a good trade chip. I think his value will go up so id hold him.

He's a perfect stop gap until Poulin is ready. Sign McCann to a 1 or 2 year deal and move him for a position of need once Poulin is ready.


If he is looking for near 3 million next year, then move him. Unless he is scoring goals, what does he bring to this team? The guy went 20 plus games without scoring a goal, you can't give him that kind of money with a frozen cap.


Typically players get 100k per point. Given his age McCann would likely be a 3-3.5M player as a free agent. Give him a 1-2yr 2.75-3M deal and leave him at his best position LW. He's 24, let him continue to grow and stop experimenting with position changes.. The team wants to get younger and faster you dont do that by shipping out 24 yr olds with 20 goal potential.


By signing him, you're essentially sending Poulin back to juniors without him being able to compete for a spot (barring injuries in camp). I'd at least see what the market will give up for McCann, I certainly wouldn't give him away for nothing, but giving a guy close to 3 million, even on a one year deal, when he didn't produce over a long stretch is a bad idea. If McCann has another year like this one, he will have nearly zero trade value. The old "potential" label means nothing until it turns into production.

14-21-35 in 66 games with 15:15 atoi gets you at least $3 million in today's NHL. Plus he's pretty solid in his own zone and on the forecheck. He's the least of their problems.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:27 am

ville5 wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
Typically players get 100k per point. Given his age McCann would likely be a 3-3.5M player as a free agent. Give him a 1-2yr 2.75-3M deal and leave him at his best position LW. He's 24, let him continue to grow and stop experimenting with position changes.. The team wants to get younger and faster you dont do that by shipping out 24 yr olds with 20 goal potential.


By signing him, you're essentially sending Poulin back to juniors without him being able to compete for a spot (barring injuries in camp). I'd at least see what the market will give up for McCann, I certainly wouldn't give him away for nothing, but giving a guy close to 3 million, even on a one year deal, when he didn't produce over a long stretch is a bad idea. If McCann has another year like this one, he will have nearly zero trade value. The old "potential" label means nothing until it turns into production.

14-21-35 in 66 games with 15:15 atoi gets you at least $3 million in today's NHL. Plus he's pretty solid in his own zone and on the forecheck. He's the least of their problems.

McCann is just so....I don't know, I want to use the word enigma, but.... 14-21-35 in 66 games translates into a 43 point 82 game season. I think the hope is for him to be a consistent 40-50 point player. The big thing is he needs to up his goal production. 14 in 66 translates to 17 goals in 82 games. I think they'd like him to put up similar numbers to Hornqvist in his prime....consistent 20 goal scorer, consistent mid 40's to mid 50's points. McCann almost certainly would have gotten there if he didn't have a 23 game goalless stretch. But that has been the issue with McCann. There's always "something" that keeps him from getting there.

That's why Vancouver and Florida were willing to move him, and one of the reasons why Rutherford is at least looking. On the flip side, I'd rather move Hornqvist over McCann if possible because:
1) Hornqvist is older and declining
2) Hornqvist makes more AAV
3) Hornqvist is strictly a RW, whereas McCann can play LW or C (even though we want to see him stay in one spot).
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:05 am

One other option which might work would be, trade McCann for a 3rd pairing RD on a somewhat cheap contract.
Sign Haula to 4M deal (estimate)
Leave 3rd line LW spot open for Poulin or O'Connor in camp, to see if they can seize the opportunity. If not, you move Tanev up to 3rd line LW, with a Tanev, Haula, Hornqvist 3rd line.

In that scenario, I'd still want to see Johnson moved, but, if you had to retain some salary, you are in a little better position to do so. But, retaining on Bjugstad for 1 year is one thing. Retaining on JJ for 3 years is something I'm not sure if GMJR will do.

Matt Murray and Jared McCann to Edmonton for Ethan Bear and Raphael Lavoie. Lavoie would greatly help our future center/RW depth. Bear could slot into the 3rd pairing RD role. He is an RFA, but he DOES NOT have arbitration rights, meaning they could qualify him around 825K or so. Lavoie turns 20 in about 10 days, meaning he would be eligible to play in the AHL this season.

Find a deal similar to that. Leave the 3LW spot open for competition. If you want to, if you have enough cap space....if Poulin or O'Connor fail to seize it, bring Simon back to fill the role. Not ideal, but, he has team familiarity.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:11 am

FLPensFan wrote:
ville5 wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
Typically players get 100k per point. Given his age McCann would likely be a 3-3.5M player as a free agent. Give him a 1-2yr 2.75-3M deal and leave him at his best position LW. He's 24, let him continue to grow and stop experimenting with position changes.. The team wants to get younger and faster you dont do that by shipping out 24 yr olds with 20 goal potential.


By signing him, you're essentially sending Poulin back to juniors without him being able to compete for a spot (barring injuries in camp). I'd at least see what the market will give up for McCann, I certainly wouldn't give him away for nothing, but giving a guy close to 3 million, even on a one year deal, when he didn't produce over a long stretch is a bad idea. If McCann has another year like this one, he will have nearly zero trade value. The old "potential" label means nothing until it turns into production.

14-21-35 in 66 games with 15:15 atoi gets you at least $3 million in today's NHL. Plus he's pretty solid in his own zone and on the forecheck. He's the least of their problems.

McCann is just so....I don't know, I want to use the word enigma, but.... 14-21-35 in 66 games translates into a 43 point 82 game season. I think the hope is for him to be a consistent 40-50 point player. The big thing is he needs to up his goal production. 14 in 66 translates to 17 goals in 82 games. I think they'd like him to put up similar numbers to Hornqvist in his prime....consistent 20 goal scorer, consistent mid 40's to mid 50's points. McCann almost certainly would have gotten there if he didn't have a 23 game goalless stretch. But that has been the issue with McCann. There's always "something" that keeps him from getting there.

That's why Vancouver and Florida were willing to move him, and one of the reasons why Rutherford is at least looking. On the flip side, I'd rather move Hornqvist over McCann if possible because:
1) Hornqvist is older and declining
2) Hornqvist makes more AAV
3) Hornqvist is strictly a RW, whereas McCann can play LW or C (even though we want to see him stay in one spot).


I like McCann's skill set, his versatility even though he should be playing LW full time, and his salary relative to his production.

A team in win now mode cant count on Poulin stepping in and winning the job. If he does, great then you can move McCann at some point during the season to fill a need.

I'm not counting on Poulin having an impact at the NHL next season
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby longtimefan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:15 am

FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:However, again, you had GMJR out there talking about how the team wanted to be active, lots of changes are coming, etc, etc, instead of talking about how he would LIKE TO BE ACTIVE, but needs to see what the landscape is with a flat cap. GMJR brings a lot of heat on himself by being such a blabbermouth. Of course, I don't expect him to sit here and tell me "We cannot make any moves. There is no cap space." or "I am targeting Joe Juneau and Dick Tarnstrom in free agency," but he makes comments, often and seemingly every year, that serve no purpose and make him look like a fool.

I applaud him for getting 2 deals done early, but again, I look squarely at the Johnson, Hornqvist, and Tanev deals right now, on how they all got 500K-1M overpaid, and how they all got too much term. It is coming back with a vengeance right now.


But they haven't started the Finals yet. He hasn't really said anything wrong. In fact, he closed his rant by saying he wants to make changes and will do everything in his power to do so. Judge what he's done at training camp. Not three or four months prior to the season.

As far as the contracts, you've just highlighted of free agency. Horny isn't overpaid based on production. Just on age and potential injury. And he deserved a little extra for getting them where they wanted to go. Twice. The other two came from the open market, which I've long said is the least efficient way to build a team. He deserves his fair share of blame. Just not in a tunnel that doesn't consider how he's stacked up against his peers. Like JVR being a playoff scratch with 3 x $7M against the cap. That's more than Tanev and JJ combined.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby thehockeyguru on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:35 am

I'm not a fan of the argument, well other GMs gave out terrible deals they are common. Well the JVR deal you mentioned was handed out by the Flyers, when was the last time they won a cup? I dont even know because it was before I was born. Successful well run franchises shouldn't be comparing themselves to poorly run franchises who haven't won a championship in over 35 years to make them feel better about their mistakes.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby longtimefan on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:46 am

thehockeyguru wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
ville5 wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:
Typically players get 100k per point. Given his age McCann would likely be a 3-3.5M player as a free agent. Give him a 1-2yr 2.75-3M deal and leave him at his best position LW. He's 24, let him continue to grow and stop experimenting with position changes.. The team wants to get younger and faster you dont do that by shipping out 24 yr olds with 20 goal potential.


By signing him, you're essentially sending Poulin back to juniors without him being able to compete for a spot (barring injuries in camp). I'd at least see what the market will give up for McCann, I certainly wouldn't give him away for nothing, but giving a guy close to 3 million, even on a one year deal, when he didn't produce over a long stretch is a bad idea. If McCann has another year like this one, he will have nearly zero trade value. The old "potential" label means nothing until it turns into production.

14-21-35 in 66 games with 15:15 atoi gets you at least $3 million in today's NHL. Plus he's pretty solid in his own zone and on the forecheck. He's the least of their problems.

McCann is just so....I don't know, I want to use the word enigma, but.... 14-21-35 in 66 games translates into a 43 point 82 game season. I think the hope is for him to be a consistent 40-50 point player. The big thing is he needs to up his goal production. 14 in 66 translates to 17 goals in 82 games. I think they'd like him to put up similar numbers to Hornqvist in his prime....consistent 20 goal scorer, consistent mid 40's to mid 50's points. McCann almost certainly would have gotten there if he didn't have a 23 game goalless stretch. But that has been the issue with McCann. There's always "something" that keeps him from getting there.

That's why Vancouver and Florida were willing to move him, and one of the reasons why Rutherford is at least looking. On the flip side, I'd rather move Hornqvist over McCann if possible because:
1) Hornqvist is older and declining
2) Hornqvist makes more AAV
3) Hornqvist is strictly a RW, whereas McCann can play LW or C (even though we want to see him stay in one spot).


I like McCann's skill set, his versatility even though he should be playing LW full time, and his salary relative to his production.

A team in win now mode cant count on Poulin stepping in and winning the job. If he does, great then you can move McCann at some point during the season to fill a need.

I'm not counting on Poulin having an impact at the NHL next season


Under normal circumstances, you're right. But the circumstances are far from normal. You may have to go with some unproven players. The Pens did in 2016, and the Caps did in 2018, both under different circumstances. Often championship teams are borne of having younger guys overachieve. Frankly, Blueger played a 3C role most of the season, and performed like you'd expect from a defense first, offensive challenged 3C. But he may have more to give in a differently defined role. It would be great to have somebody more proven. But sometimes you hold back a player you have from reaching their potential. You may not be comfortable with Poulin being the 3LW, but you may have no choice.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby penny lane on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:43 pm

Cow_Master66 wrote:It will open up some $ when they deal Malkin out west.


GMJR hasn't replaced the 3rd line center since 17, you now expect him to replace 2 centers.
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Re: Where does the roster go from here?

Postby Cow_Master66 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:46 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:I'm not a fan of the argument, well other GMs gave out terrible deals they are common. Well the JVR deal you mentioned was handed out by the Flyers, when was the last time they won a cup? I dont even know because it was before I was born. Successful well run franchises shouldn't be comparing themselves to poorly run franchises who haven't won a championship in over 35 years to make them feel better about their mistakes.


Dude, the Flyers are not poorly run. If you weren't alive the last time Philly won the cup, were you alive the last time the Penguins went bankrupt and were gifted a #1 pick to keep them here? Most "successfully well run franchises" don't need bailed out like that....

Shame on you for making me say this
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