Prediction for Pens Arena Situation:

[kovyman1127]

My prediction:

1. IOC doesn't get liscense.

2. Slots winner has to donate 150 - 175M to new arena and the rest comes from sponsorships and tax money.

Their is "minor" backlash here in the city...but Pens are saved.

Rendell has too much of the "fix is in" talk to let the Pens leave IMHO.

[bill from turtle creek]

As reasonable a guess as any. I think the thing will get solved on some level, but I also am convinced that FC will get the license, as well.

We are lucky this is an election year, or this whole thing could easily end in the Pens going elsewhere.

I think that it's very likely that whomever gets the license, there will be lawsuits holding things up. We need to get this arena built while all of that drags on.

[Jamie]

I honestly do not know. If IOC does not get the license, then it is up to the new ownership group, on whether they will accept a "plan b". I think in the end an arena deal gets done and the PENS stay, but it is going to go right down to the wire.

[Rob UK Pen]

Given that the Pens lease expires at the end of the 2006-07 season and the slots decision isn't due for some time, assuming a deal on a new arena does get done what happens in the time after summer 2007 and the completion of the arena? Can they agree a new short-term lease on the Mellon Arena or is that scheduled for demolition?

[ExPatriatePen]

We are lucky this is an election year, or this whole thing could easily end in the Pens going elsewhere.

Don't forget the decision is not expected until *after* the election.

And I believe it will be pushed back even further.

My prediction, FC gets the license, by contributing some, but not all, of the monies for a "Plan 'B' " proposal. The new Arena gets built (although it ends up costing more than $290M and isn't as nice as the IoC current proposal.) on the site the city buys from Don Barden near the West End Bridge.

Mario's group sells the Pens after the license is awarded to FC and *before* the new Arena is built. The new Owner uses the delay in constructing the new arena as an excuse to move the team. Pittsburgh spends the next two years courting an AHL franchise (And ends up with the Columbus farm team).

The new Arena is operated in the Red for years and becomes a drag on taxpayers.

Forest City stalls the development of all parts of their proposal except the slots venue and no new tax revenues are realized.

Meanwhile, the former Civic Arena site is demolished and the "Lower Hill District" falls further into a state of disrepair.

[netwolf]

then it is up to the new ownership group, on whether they will accept a "plan b".

Unless the plan B calls for the Pens getting a lousy lease agreement and/or prevents them from getting the revenue streams new building provide, why wouldn't they accept it? Pittsburgh is a proven hockey market. Draftnik has commented on this numerous times. The team is worth more in this town than anywhere else.

The team has been awful, especially this season and last and attendance is still good all things considered. If they ice a winner, the games are sellouts.

Las Vegas is another warm weather market that is totally unproven. Same with Houston. Kansas City already lost a team once. Portland is a question mark too.

I don't doubt that any of those cities could be successful early on, but I have doubts as to the long term viability of NHL hockey in all of them.

[jimjom]

No demolition scheduled yet...mind you, if they do leave, our AHL team will have to play somewhere. I see this happening too -- the Pens will be saved at the last minute, and IoC won't get the license. If a deal is in place, I'm no expert, but a short-term lease agreement should be reached.

In other news, I love these emoticons.

[ExPatriatePen]

Portland is a question mark too.

I don't doubt that any of those cities could be successful early on, but I have doubts as to the long term viability of NHL hockey in all of them.

Portland is a hotbed. Vastly improving economically. Young residents with spendable income. Only one draw in the Trailblazers.

As for short term success and questionable long term viability... that's the exact opposite of nearly every expansion franchise (let alone moved franchise) in recent NHL history.

The standard signature is that these franchises struggle in the early years and gain stability over time. (Some exceptions: Columbus which sold out from the start (with a demographic similar to Portland), and Dallas which had early success on the ice which translated into immediate viability.)