newarenanow wrote:I have another question, outside of Jose and Kicksave, why didn't anyone lynch me. Most thought I was a wolf.
Idoit40fans wrote:newarenanow wrote:I have another question, outside of Jose and Kicksave, why didn't anyone lynch me. Most thought I was a wolf.
I kept going back and forth between whether or not you were a wolf. I didn't really think you were, but figured one of these times soon one of use who are talking a whole lot are going to be a wolf, and I knew it wasn't me.
Dan H wrote:It was interesting that Errey's last meal was Canaan. If you think about the game at that point, you had two known villagers (Senka and NAN), and three potential wolves (Loaf, Errey, and Canaan). If the three potential wolves had been equally suspicious (obviously not quite the case), the percentage play for Errey would have been to flip a coin to decide to eat Senka or NAN, and go with it. If he's successful, he's reduced the game to only one known villager and three potential wolves. He'd have a 2/3 chance of surviving the next day's vote, at which point he'd get a chance to eat someone and win the game. Depending upon if he ate Senka or NAN, he'd have either a 50% or 100% chance of winning at that point. Determining completely randomly is an optimal strategy for rock-paper-scissors like games, assuming your opponent also plays optimally. If he went for Senka or NAN and was blocked, he would have revealed no new information, and the village would have gone to the next day still with two proven villagers and three potential wolves. Errey might still win in that situation, if the village voted out one of the other two potential wolves, he successfully ate Senka or NAN on the next night, and won the 50/50 vote the following day. If, instead, Errey tries to eat one of the other two potential wolves, he has only a 50% chance of surviving the next day's vote, and if his meal attempt is blocked, the game is over (three proven villagers, two potential wolves, and daytime is always a win for the village - they can vote out the potential wolves in whatever order and outlast the wolf even without a block from the angel). So you have to figure, given the equal-suspicion assumption, his table of success would look something like:
Errey's meal nomnom blocked
Senka 67% 17%
NAN 33% 17%
Canaan or Loaf 25% 0%
Of course, Senka could deduce that table, too, and adjust his blocking strategy accordingly, so it's not necessarily the case that trying to eat Senka is the percentage play.
Because suspicion of the three potential wolves was not equal - Errey had the most suspicion, followed by Loaf a little behind and Canaan way behind - those numbers get changed, and in the village's favor. Eating Loaf is almost a suicide move. Either Errey is blocked and loses for sure, or he has his meal and goes into the next day trying to convince Senka and NAN to vote out Canaan - a tough task. Even if he succeeds with that, he has to win one more rock-paper-scissors guess against Senka to win the game. Eating Canaan is a better alternative. Errey still loses if he's blocked, but if he isn't, he has to convince Senka and NAN to vote out Loaf, then win the rock-paper-scissors guess. Eating NAN would have left Errey and Loaf pointing at each other, with Senka and Canaan deciding who goes. If he survived that, he had another 50/50 rock-paper-scissors guess to win. Trying to eat NAN and getting blocked would have left him with a slim chance of victory. He would have had to get Senka, NAN, and Canaan to vote out Loaf on the first day, win a 50/50 rock-paper-scissors guess the following night, then get the survivor (Senka or NAN) to vote for Canaan on the last day. Eating Senka would still put him in okay shape. He would need to convince NAN and Canaan to vote out Loaf the next day, which would give him a win. Trying to eat Senka and getting blocked would have left him in the same spot as trying to eat NAN and getting blocked.
So, with any of his three non-suicidal menu options, Errey would have needed to swing the village against Loaf the next day, and have some degree of luck avoiding Senka's blocks. He must have figured the low chance that Senka would protect Canaan that night advantaged him more than having Canaan around the next day as another target upon which to deflect suspicion.
the errey i breathe wrote:Its really funny how things played out towards the end. We knew senka was the angel early on
LeopardLetang wrote:the errey i breathe wrote:Its really funny how things played out towards the end. We knew senka was the angel early on
did you figure he was the angel using the method i suggested above?
Troy Loney wrote:NAN,
I didn't eat you because I liked having you around. You sparked up conversation and kept diverting attention away from the wolves and onto the villagers during the lynchings. I regret taking out irish eyes instead of you, and plus i moved too quickly. Jaysmiter and errery were on at different times than me and it allowed people to jump on the lynch troy bid with no reasonable backup. And there was an instant where someone had a vote for loaf and the three of us could have ended it right there but errey and jay were gone. My fault is that i knew they werent going to be around and i should have timed the Juice PM to eat irish eyes.
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