WEREWOLF IV GAMEPLAY THREAD

[Loaf31]

I thought that you were trying a new tatic, being a VERY vocal wolf. I was leery of you almost the entire game until the Troy vote

[newarenanow]

Since everyone was quiet, I was just trying to stir up conversation, throw out ideas, see if anyone would bite. Kovy was out early, and he is someone that is vocal with me. I don't agree with people that think there is a method at the beginning fo the game. There are way to many people. It is a crap shoot. What Juice did the last game is very, very slim IMO. If he plays the next game and does it again, I want to know his secret. Especially if everyone is quiet again.

Once it gets down to about 9 or 10 people, that is where you can start looking into strategy, behaviors, who voted for who, etc. I'm also a big proponent on the angel revealing themselves after the seer is gone. It creates a rallying point and creates someone you can trust. Look at the difference once Senka revealed. I knew I had someone I could throw ideas off of, and it eliminated a person from my list. The move of protecting me that one night was awesome.

I'd like to hear what the wolves were thinking.

[newarenanow]

Juice, post the write up!!!!

I want a cool picture of the village, Senka as the angel, and three dead wolves.

[newarenanow]

I have a few questions:

- Senka - I know you were vocal on your thoughts just as I was, but what made you reveal yourself as the angel when you did. How come you didn't it sooner, or why did you do it at all? Also, what changed your mind to vote for Troy instead of me?

- jaysmiter - What was going through you mind during that Troy vote. Were you worried you caught yourself in a trap. Was anything I was saying in my theories right or wrong? Or was I just talking nonsense?

- Kicksave - can you explain your tactic. You said you would after the game was over.

- beerman - what made you shoot Letang

- wolves - what was your thoughts, especially when it got down to 4-3 and the game could have ended in a sweep.

[sdm5055]

If you read into Senka's post after the seer was out and we where discussing if the angel should out themselves you could tell Senka was the angel or at least I knew from that point on that he was

I assumed that he was doing that to out himself in a round about way

[beerman]

it was early and like you've said several times there's not to much strategy involved that early. I heavily considered saving my bullet because I was tossing around a few names in my head (Letang, Errey and Senka). I actually did send juice a pm and told him I was going to save the bullet but the night lasted a long time and I had talked myself out of it being Senka completely (luckily) and decided that I didn't want to take the chance and waste the bullet if I were to get eaten, which I did the very next night before ever getting a second bullet for which would have capped errey no doubt.

I went back and forth on shooting errey or letang and in the end I just picked one and made the wrong choice

[newarenanow]

I have another question, outside of Jose and Kicksave, why didn't anyone lynch me. Most thought I was a wolf.

[Idoit40fans]

I have another question, outside of Jose and Kicksave, why didn't anyone lynch me. Most thought I was a wolf.

I kept going back and forth between whether or not you were a wolf. I didn't really think you were, but figured one of these times soon one of use who are talking a whole lot are going to be a wolf, and I knew it wasn't me.

[newarenanow]

I have another question, outside of Jose and Kicksave, why didn't anyone lynch me. Most thought I was a wolf.

I kept going back and forth between whether or not you were a wolf. I didn't really think you were, but figured one of these times soon one of use who are talking a whole lot are going to be a wolf, and I knew it wasn't me.

Thats the same reason why I voted for you. We were the only two talking, so I figured eventually one of us would be called out, and I thought you were one, so I voted for you because obviously I knew I wasn't.

[Senka]

Where is Senka? I figured he'd be on hear BSing between class.

im back. haha

[newarenanow]

Where is Senka? I figured he'd be on hear BSing between class.

im back. haha

We won!

[Dan H]

It was interesting that Errey's last meal was Canaan. If you think about the game at that point, you had two known villagers (Senka and NAN), and three potential wolves (Loaf, Errey, and Canaan). If the three potential wolves had been equally suspicious (obviously not quite the case), the percentage play for Errey would have been to flip a coin to decide to eat Senka or NAN, and go with it. If he's successful, he's reduced the game to only one known villager and three potential wolves. He'd have a 2/3 chance of surviving the next day's vote, at which point he'd get a chance to eat someone and win the game. Depending upon if he ate Senka or NAN, he'd have either a 50% or 100% chance of winning at that point. Determining completely randomly is an optimal strategy for rock-paper-scissors like games, assuming your opponent also plays optimally. If he went for Senka or NAN and was blocked, he would have revealed no new information, and the village would have gone to the next day still with two proven villagers and three potential wolves. Errey might still win in that situation, if the village voted out one of the other two potential wolves, he successfully ate Senka or NAN on the next night, and won the 50/50 vote the following day. If, instead, Errey tries to eat one of the other two potential wolves, he has only a 50% chance of surviving the next day's vote, and if his meal attempt is blocked, the game is over (three proven villagers, two potential wolves, and daytime is always a win for the village - they can vote out the potential wolves in whatever order and outlast the wolf even without a block from the angel). So you have to figure, given the equal-suspicion assumption, his table of success would look something like:

Errey's meal nomnom blocked
Senka 67% 17%
NAN 33% 17%
Canaan or Loaf 25% 0%

Of course, Senka could deduce that table, too, and adjust his blocking strategy accordingly, so it's not necessarily the case that trying to eat Senka is the percentage play.
Because suspicion of the three potential wolves was not equal - Errey had the most suspicion, followed by Loaf a little behind and Canaan way behind - those numbers get changed, and in the village's favor. Eating Loaf is almost a suicide move. Either Errey is blocked and loses for sure, or he has his meal and goes into the next day trying to convince Senka and NAN to vote out Canaan - a tough task. Even if he succeeds with that, he has to win one more rock-paper-scissors guess against Senka to win the game. Eating Canaan is a better alternative. Errey still loses if he's blocked, but if he isn't, he has to convince Senka and NAN to vote out Loaf, then win the rock-paper-scissors guess. Eating NAN would have left Errey and Loaf pointing at each other, with Senka and Canaan deciding who goes. If he survived that, he had another 50/50 rock-paper-scissors guess to win. Trying to eat NAN and getting blocked would have left him with a slim chance of victory. He would have had to get Senka, NAN, and Canaan to vote out Loaf on the first day, win a 50/50 rock-paper-scissors guess the following night, then get the survivor (Senka or NAN) to vote for Canaan on the last day. Eating Senka would still put him in okay shape. He would need to convince NAN and Canaan to vote out Loaf the next day, which would give him a win. Trying to eat Senka and getting blocked would have left him in the same spot as trying to eat NAN and getting blocked.
So, with any of his three non-suicidal menu options, Errey would have needed to swing the village against Loaf the next day, and have some degree of luck avoiding Senka's blocks. He must have figured the low chance that Senka would protect Canaan that night advantaged him more than having Canaan around the next day as another target upon which to deflect suspicion.

[Senka]

i had class from... 12-330, and i was playing tiger. i actually forgot.

so my angel question... I talked about how it was dumb to show your identity.. because look... if the angel could be the NOM NOM target, then it would save a night. but throughout the game, i guess my explaining made it ovious to the wolves that i was indeed the angel... i didnt know the speed of the game if i was to get lynched.. but it was ... fairly slow so i kept it to myself. i never collected a lynch all game i dont think either.

When it got to 7, i made it apparent that i sided with NAN even though i thought he was a wolf... because if he was not, then it was over anyways. i cleared it up i was an angel so i can protect nan, assuming id do it to myself, and it paid off.

[Senka]

It was interesting that Errey's last meal was Canaan. If you think about the game at that point, you had two known villagers (Senka and NAN), and three potential wolves (Loaf, Errey, and Canaan). If the three potential wolves had been equally suspicious (obviously not quite the case), the percentage play for Errey would have been to flip a coin to decide to eat Senka or NAN, and go with it. If he's successful, he's reduced the game to only one known villager and three potential wolves. He'd have a 2/3 chance of surviving the next day's vote, at which point he'd get a chance to eat someone and win the game. Depending upon if he ate Senka or NAN, he'd have either a 50% or 100% chance of winning at that point. Determining completely randomly is an optimal strategy for rock-paper-scissors like games, assuming your opponent also plays optimally. If he went for Senka or NAN and was blocked, he would have revealed no new information, and the village would have gone to the next day still with two proven villagers and three potential wolves. Errey might still win in that situation, if the village voted out one of the other two potential wolves, he successfully ate Senka or NAN on the next night, and won the 50/50 vote the following day. If, instead, Errey tries to eat one of the other two potential wolves, he has only a 50% chance of surviving the next day's vote, and if his meal attempt is blocked, the game is over (three proven villagers, two potential wolves, and daytime is always a win for the village - they can vote out the potential wolves in whatever order and outlast the wolf even without a block from the angel). So you have to figure, given the equal-suspicion assumption, his table of success would look something like:

Errey's meal nomnom blocked
Senka 67% 17%
NAN 33% 17%
Canaan or Loaf 25% 0%

Of course, Senka could deduce that table, too, and adjust his blocking strategy accordingly, so it's not necessarily the case that trying to eat Senka is the percentage play.
Because suspicion of the three potential wolves was not equal - Errey had the most suspicion, followed by Loaf a little behind and Canaan way behind - those numbers get changed, and in the village's favor. Eating Loaf is almost a suicide move. Either Errey is blocked and loses for sure, or he has his meal and goes into the next day trying to convince Senka and NAN to vote out Canaan - a tough task. Even if he succeeds with that, he has to win one more rock-paper-scissors guess against Senka to win the game. Eating Canaan is a better alternative. Errey still loses if he's blocked, but if he isn't, he has to convince Senka and NAN to vote out Loaf, then win the rock-paper-scissors guess. Eating NAN would have left Errey and Loaf pointing at each other, with Senka and Canaan deciding who goes. If he survived that, he had another 50/50 rock-paper-scissors guess to win. Trying to eat NAN and getting blocked would have left him with a slim chance of victory. He would have had to get Senka, NAN, and Canaan to vote out Loaf on the first day, win a 50/50 rock-paper-scissors guess the following night, then get the survivor (Senka or NAN) to vote for Canaan on the last day. Eating Senka would still put him in okay shape. He would need to convince NAN and Canaan to vote out Loaf the next day, which would give him a win. Trying to eat Senka and getting blocked would have left him in the same spot as trying to eat NAN and getting blocked.
So, with any of his three non-suicidal menu options, Errey would have needed to swing the village against Loaf the next day, and have some degree of luck avoiding Senka's blocks. He must have figured the low chance that Senka would protect Canaan that night advantaged him more than having Canaan around the next day as another target upon which to deflect suspicion.

i was willing to ride the canaan train to the end. i was almost positive he was indeed one too. he tok canaan because he took one of my def villagers that i assumed.

ERREY -- had you not taken canaan would yu have taken me or NAN?

[Troy Loney]

NAN,

I didn't eat you because I liked having you around. You sparked up conversation and kept diverting attention away from the wolves and onto the villagers during the lynchings. I regret taking out irish eyes instead of you, and plus i moved too quickly. Jaysmiter and errery were on at different times than me and it allowed people to jump on the lynch troy bid with no reasonable backup. And there was an instant where someone had a vote for loaf and the three of us could have ended it right there but errey and jay were gone. My fault is that i knew they werent going to be around and i should have timed the Juice PM to eat irish eyes.

[the errey i breathe]

Its really funny how things played out towards the end. We knew senka was the angel early on and didn't eat him bc we assumed hed be protecting himself once the seer & vig were dead. The NAN vote where we could have won actually was a mistake because we were all on at different times and never had the chance to all hop on the same vote so we should have won there.

The most interesting thing was when senka saved NAN i originally typed him into juice to eat thinking he might try to save NAN because he was acting very protective that day but i decided to change it at the last minute. i was kicking myself all day yesterday but it was a good play by senka.

When it came down to the last nom nom i knew i was f'd but it was between me n loaf no matter how much i tried to bring canaan into it. I figured if i eat loaf im definitely out, and senka & nan could be protected so i took my chances eating canaan and was hoping to try to use the fact i had been voting to lynch him as a last ditch effort to deflect the lynch.

well played village, you took advantage of our sloppy wolfiness and kept it together at the end.

[LeopardLetang]

here was my protest. but since the wolves didn't say anything, i guess they might not have used it to their possible advantage.

on page 7, juice said he hadn't received a pm from someone. it was obviously the angel, especially to the wolves. they knew it wasn't them and they could assume it wasn't the seer, bhaw, who was eaten and whose pm wouldn't matter anyway. so, if i was a wolf, i would have bet money that the angel would be someone who hadn't posted yet in the thread. it's unlikely you'd post in the thread but forget to pm juice, especially when the first post is juice asking people to pm him. it turns out that that was true. senka was the angel and hadn't posted in the thread up to that point.

it turns out that the only other player who hadn't posted yet was Twisted Wrister. so the wolves could have been pretty sure that the angel was one of those two. they obviously would not want to risk eating one of them, so they'd have to resort to getting them lynched. and what happens? what luck! Twisted Wrister comes on and casts the first lynching vote in the game with a 'lynch nan.' nan fires back and this is better than the wolves could have dreamed. and guess who was the first player to support the 'lynch Twisted Wrister' vote? none other than alpha wolf, Troy Loney. with TW gone, the wolves can now feel confident that senka is the angel. and although senka stayed hidden, the wolves never wasted a night trying to eat him. was this just luck? maybe. but i figured that they knew the angel's identity after the first lynching.

[IrishEyes]

I suck at this game.

[LeopardLetang]

Its really funny how things played out towards the end. We knew senka was the angel early on

did you figure he was the angel using the method i suggested above?

[the errey i breathe]

lol im not sure troy figured it out to be honest.

[Troy Loney]

Its really funny how things played out towards the end. We knew senka was the angel early on

did you figure he was the angel using the method i suggested above?

pretty much, i always sent my pm's right after the lynching and knew the people that were probably holding up the game. jay and i had some disagreements because i thought senka was the vigilante, but after i killed beerman and that was him we knew for sure senka was the angel.

i also kind of have a post where i out senka as the angel and he pretty much admits it.

[Senka]

i love having a purpose. next game i'm gonna be a regualr villager. statistics would say that. but i hope im the alphawolf again. nom nom. haha

[newarenanow]

NAN,

I didn't eat you because I liked having you around. You sparked up conversation and kept diverting attention away from the wolves and onto the villagers during the lynchings. I regret taking out irish eyes instead of you, and plus i moved too quickly. Jaysmiter and errery were on at different times than me and it allowed people to jump on the lynch troy bid with no reasonable backup. And there was an instant where someone had a vote for loaf and the three of us could have ended it right there but errey and jay were gone. My fault is that i knew they werent going to be around and i should have timed the Juice PM to eat irish eyes.

This game was tough because everyone was quiet. Usually a few people were posting. I tried to post to drag some conversation out of people. Maybe I'm a bad villager, but I could care less about trying to figure things out at the beginning as it is pretty tough to figure things out at the beginning. Especially when the seer and vig were gone so early. I mainly trust myself self at the beginning, so I figured I'd keep people guessing, but hopefully not get myself lynched.

When the game gets down to about 9 or 10, it is time to get serious.

I'm glad you guys had the timing issue, and that is pretty much what I figured. And having Senka and canaan take my side was huge, and having Loaf actually vote for a wolf instead of a villager was big too. It set it up too perfectly. I knew at that point you were 100% a wolf because if you were a villager, the game would have been over since I voted for you. What gave jaymiter away was his hesitation to vote for you. I could tell he didn't want to vote you out w/o consulting. If he would have quickly jumped aboard, then I wouldn't have been so confident he was a wolf.

I was heavily leaning towards errey because he voted with you, and if he was a villager, the other two wolves would havejumped on. The only thing that kind of kept Loaf in the picture as a wolf for me was that if he couldn't log on to switch his vote in time. It played out perfectly.

[Idoit40fans]

:NHL09:

[newarenanow]

Juice, where is the writeup??