I'd say he has a 50-50 chance. Shero likes to have 9-10 NHL-caliber d-men at the start of the season. Looking at the current contracts (and assuming that Goligoski makes the team), next year's blueline is Gonch, Orpik, Tanger, Eaton, Goligoski. That leaves 2 spots up for grabs.
Lovejoy is an excellent 2-way d-man who has concentrated more on the defensive part of his game this year, as his ridiculous +42 rating shows (leads the AHL). One of the things in his favor is that he is definitely the kind of defenseman who could play as a 7th man, coming off the bench for some games and sitting for others.
The reason I say that there's a 50% chance that he won't make the team out of camp is two-fold... 1) unless Scuderi is a complete tool in his negotiations, he's coming back. 2) If Shero/Fletcher sign another veteran d-man to fill out the big club, Lovejoy would start in WBS due to the fact that he doesn't have to clear waivers yet.