LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World Cup)

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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby jmh470 on Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:45 am

Switzerland beat Brazil in a friendly in August. Ipso facto, Switzerland is among the giants of world football.

I'd say one thing is pretty certain about the draw: after 2010's sweetheart draw, the US is going to get absolutely reamed this go-round. I'll go ahead and expect Spain, the Netherlands, and, of course, Ghana, ruiner of all things American football.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby largegarlic on Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:52 am

jmh470 wrote: I'd say one thing is pretty certain about the draw: after 2010's sweetheart draw, the US is going to get absolutely reamed this go-round. I'll go ahead and expect Spain, the Netherlands, and, of course, Ghana, ruiner of all things American football.


That's what I'm thinking too. That 2010 draw was pretty much the best draw imaginable (weak seeded team, weak 2nd-tier Euro team, weak African team). With the way the seeds for 2014 came out, it seems like multiple groups of death will be likely.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby largegarlic on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:00 am

I realize it's pointless to complain about the weirdness of the FIFA ranking system, and I don't think the US deserves a seed, but in the games since the last rankings, the Swiss had 1-goal wins over Slovenia and Albania and somehow jumped from 14 to 7. The US had wins over Jamaica and Panama and stayed put at 13. The Swiss also somehow leapfrogged Holland, who beat Hungary (8-1) and Turkey (2-0) in that time frame. How does that make sense?
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby WDWBurghGooner on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:07 am

jmh470 wrote:Switzerland beat Brazil in a friendly in August. Ipso facto, Switzerland is among the giants of world football.

I'd say one thing is pretty certain about the draw: after 2010's sweetheart draw, the US is going to get absolutely reamed this go-round. I'll go ahead and expect Spain, the Netherlands, and, of course, Ghana, ruiner of all things American football.


Switzerland beat Spain in the 2010 WC so ipso facto they were actually the best team in the world in 2010;)

The seeded teams makes for some grim reading. Switzerland and Colombia (nightmares of Falcao running circles around the US back four) both have quality even if they shouldn't be seeded. I agree, I think the US is going to get a very difficult group.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby WDWBurghGooner on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:09 am

largegarlic wrote:I realize it's pointless to complain about the weirdness of the FIFA ranking system, and I don't think the US deserves a seed, but in the games since the last rankings, the Swiss had 1-goal wins over Slovenia and Albania and somehow jumped from 14 to 7. The US had wins over Jamaica and Panama and stayed put at 13. The Swiss also somehow leapfrogged Holland, who beat Hungary (8-1) and Turkey (2-0) in that time frame. How does that make sense?


Sepp Blatter is Swiss and UEFA is based in Switzerland.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby WDWBurghGooner on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:33 am

largegarlic wrote:Some posters on the Bigsoccer boards calculated what the FIFA rankings are going to be that will be used to determine the seeds for the World Cup. If they're right, the seeds will be:

Brazil
Spain
Argentina
Germany
Uruguay
Colombia
Belgium
Switzerland

Of course, Uruguay still has to beat Jordan in playoff to make it. But, that's still a crazy list considering that Holland, Italy, and England didn't make the cut. I know Belgium is stacked on paper, as WDWBurghGooner is fond of pointing out, they haven't even been in a major tournament in a while. Switzerland is one of those teams that always seems to qualify, but never does anything interesting once they get there. Colombia also looks good on paper and in qualifying, but they haven't made the World Cup since '98 (I thought they hadn't been in 2010, and when I looked it up, found they haven't qualified since then).


Nobody was talking about Belgium at the start of last season despite the fact that guys like Fellaini, Vermaelen, Defour, Witsel, and Kompany were all known quantities and playing for good teams. Hazard and Lukaku had been known prospects who hadn't done it on the "big stage" (England) yet. Since then, totally unknown guys like Benteke and Dembele have emerged as well. Even their depth is really good. It's almost a perfect storm of talented youth emerging and blending with established players.

In the past, I equated Belgium to Poland from last years Euros but I am backtracking on that. Poland had the Dortmund trio, Obraniak, and Ches (you try spelling it) from Arsenal but not much else. Belgium is stacked everywhere with quality players at big clubs. At this point, Belgium are so well-known they are almost overrated, calling them a darkhorse is almost comical. That being said, like everyone else, I would be shocked if they didn't do a lot of damage come next summer.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:37 am

Italy only drew Denmark and Armenia, so I can see them slipping a bit, but Switzerland ahead of Holland is a head scratcher.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:43 am

WDWBurghGooner wrote:

Nobody was talking about Belgium at the start of last season


Ha, I put money on their impending WC triumph two years ago. So there.

They will play a wonderful and exciting group stage only to fall 0-1 to, say, Spain, in the Quarterfinals.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:33 am

Harry Wilson's grandfather nets £125,000 over Wales debut bet:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24555555
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby WDWBurghGooner on Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:53 am

Gaucho wrote:Harry Wilson's grandfather nets £125,000 over Wales debut bet:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24555555


Chris Kirkland's dad only made £10,000 making a similar bet when his son was 11. Kirkland plays for Wednesday now, man that's some dropoff.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby slappybrown on Thu Oct 17, 2013 11:58 am

The most infuriating thing about FIFA is the constant make it up as we go along as it pertains to draws and seeding for their events. They only just decided to use the October rankings a month ago as the basis for seeding. Why are you waiting that long? It makes no sense. They learned nothing from the 2010 UEFA playoff seeding disaster, where they made up the rules at the last minute to ensure that bigger nations avoided each other (Portugal, France, Russia) by deciding that they would in fact seed them after indicating they wouldn't.

The FIFA rankings as a whole are nonsense, and still don't put enough emphasis on bigger matches. The multipliers for "match importance" in particular need significant adjustment. Not enough weight is being placed on performance in the confederation tournaments (Euro C'ship, Copa America, etc.) and the spreads as a whole need to be wider. I wouldn't even be opposed to dumping friendlies all together. The fact that some throw-away experimental squad performance can be meaningful in seeding is a joke.

Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Switzerland and Uruguay
Pot 2: UEFA (Holland, Italy, Russia, England, Bosnia and let's say Portugal, France, Sweden, Croatia, depending on the playoff and who draws whom). They will have to pull one European team out of this bunch and drop them into another pot as far as I can tell, because there are 8 groups so you need 8 in each pot. Perhaps the lowest seeded European team?
Pot 3: South America/Africa (Chile, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Euro team)
Pot 4: Asia/North America/Oceania (US, Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Australia)

When you look at that, you can see how likely it is that we are going to see some extremely unbalanced groups. No one on Earth thinks that Colombia, Belgium, Switzerland, or Uruguay are amongst the top 8 national sides.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:38 pm

The FIFA rankings are indeed nonsense and I never bothered to try and find out how they are determined. I'm a little torn on this, because on one hand it seems absurd that teams like Colombia or Switzerland are seeded ahead of Italy or the Netherlands. On the other hand, it certainly makes sense to base the seeding on somewhat recent performances. But again, Italy won a much harder group than Switzerland. Uruguay are the reigning South American champions, so you could make a case for them being one of the top seeds. Then again, assuming they beat Jordan, they needed a playoff to even make it to the World Cup.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby largegarlic on Thu Oct 17, 2013 12:53 pm

I might be starting to lean towards thinking Belgium is overrated. I think prior experience in the Euros or World Cup counts for something, and they don't have much of it. They might end being like the '94 Colombia team or the '02 Portugal team--they're the trendy darkhorse picks who maybe bought into their own hype too much and got up-ended early on by plucky underdogs, perhaps because of their lack of experience in handling the pressure and expectations.

Or more likely, I'm just preemptively trying to talk myself into feeling better if the US gets drawn into their group.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby slappybrown on Thu Oct 17, 2013 1:43 pm

Gaucho wrote:The FIFA rankings are indeed nonsense and I never bothered to try and find out how they are determined. I'm a little torn on this, because on one hand it seems absurd that teams like Colombia or Switzerland are seeded ahead of Italy or the Netherlands. On the other hand, it certainly makes sense to base the seeding on somewhat recent performances. But again, Italy won a much harder group than Switzerland. Uruguay are the reigning South American champions, so you could make a case for them being one of the top seeds. Then again, assuming they beat Jordan, they needed a playoff to even make it to the World Cup.

The FIFA page has the explanation, and it will make your head swim. Its a 4-year look-back by the way.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Avyran on Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:57 pm

slappybrown wrote:No one on Earth thinks that Colombia, Belgium, Switzerland, or Uruguay are amongst the top 8 national sides.

Just out of curiosity, what do you guys think are the actual top 8 teams?
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:15 pm

Spain, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Italy are definitely the Top 5. Plus Netherlands, France, Uruguay?
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby largegarlic on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:15 am

Around the Confed Cup time, I sorted the countries into different tiers, which I mostly still agree with. I'd say the favorites for the World Cup are Spain, Germany, and Brazil (I'm moving Brazil into this category after they killed Spain in the Confed Cup).

Then I'd say Argentina, Italy, and Holland are serious contenders (i.e. it would be mildly surprising to see one of them win, but only mildly).

After that, there's a whole group of teams that could be considered for the 7 and 8 slots--France, Portugal, England, Belgium, Uruguay. It wouldn't surprise me to see any of those teams in the quarterfinals, but it would be a bit surprising to see them go any further.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby IamtheWaris on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:35 am

largegarlic wrote:Around the Confed Cup time, I sorted the countries into different tiers, which I mostly still agree with. I'd say the favorites for the World Cup are Spain, Germany, and Brazil (I'm moving Brazil into this category after they killed Spain in the Confed Cup).

Then I'd say Argentina, Italy, and Holland are serious contenders (i.e. it would be mildly surprising to see one of them win, but only mildly).

After that, there's a whole group of teams that could be considered for the 7 and 8 slots--France, Portugal, England, Belgium, Uruguay. It wouldn't surprise me to see any of those teams in the quarterfinals, but it would be a bit surprising to see them go any further.


I would put Argentina in the first tier with Spain, Germany, and Brazil. I wouldn't sleep on Belgium because they are lacking experience. Every world cup team has players that haven't played in a world cup before. That is the nature of the tournament being held every four years. Belgium have the 5th shortest odds among the oddsmakers. If I had to rank the top 8 it would look like this:

1. Brazil
2. Spain
3. Germany
4. Argentina
5. Belgium
6. Italy
7. France
8. Colombia
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby IamtheWaris on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:39 am

http://ultra-zone.net/2014-FIFA-World-Cup-Group-Stage-Draws

Just about every outcome has been brutal for the US
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:48 am

If you want a real dark horse pick, I'd say Bosnia, Chile, or Ghana. I want to say Japan, but that'd be wishful thinking.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby count2infinity on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:56 am

I just did a draw that put USA in with Argentina, Ghana and Italy. yikes.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby Gaucho on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:10 am

USA, Ghana, Italy sounds familiar.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby count2infinity on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:13 am

that it does. I don't really care who they're put with, I"m just excited to watch some world cup soccer.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby WDWBurghGooner on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:36 am

Gaucho wrote:If you want a real dark horse pick, I'd say Bosnia, Chile, or Ghana. I want to say Japan, but that'd be wishful thinking.


I like the Chile pick.
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Re: LGP Futbol Thread - (CL, EPL, Serie A, Liga, 2014 World

Postby WDWBurghGooner on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:38 am

I just got Belgium, US, Ghana, Ukraine. That would be pretty brutal and there are no huge names in that group.
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