by Kraftster on Thu Mar 10, 2011 5:03 pm
Okay, gotta keep this thing alive. This is sort of a game theory exercise, but it has some philosophical implications.
You've been kidnapped by a creature that claims to have the power of foresight. The creature wants to play a game with you. He shows you two containers. One is translucent and has a beautiful gold vase inside, which the creature explains is worth about $1,000 (Container 1). You cannot see through the other box, but the creature explains that there are two possibilities for what is inside (Container 2). One possibility is that there is a spider in Container 2, which is worth nothing. The second possibility is the original Mona Lisa is inside Container 2, which is worth $50,000,000.
The creature gives you the opportunity to pick (a) just Container 1, (b) just Container 2, or (c) both of the containers. Before making your pick, the creature explains that he has already predicted what he thinks you will choose and he is almost always right. Based upon his prior prediction, he has already put either the spider or the Mona Lisa in Container 2. The contents of Container 2 will not change based upon what you pick. When predicting your decision and making the decision of what to put in the containers, if he thinks that you will choose just Container 2, he will have put the Mona Lisa in there; if he thinks that you will choose either both Container 1 and Container 2 or just Container 1, he will put the Spider in container 2.
What do you choose?