Stock Market

Forum for posts that are not hockey-related.

Moderators: Three Stars, dagny, pfim, netwolf

Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:45 pm

Translation: WVU sucks
KennyTheKangaroo
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 11,269
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:15 am
Location: Under the Skycoaster

Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Apr 25, 2012 3:41 pm

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:Translation: WVU sucks


Why does everything always come back to that refrain with some people?

Reminds me of a grade school playground... :roll:
ExPatriatePen
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 22,719
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Source, Destination, Protocol, Port, size, sequence number, check sum... Yep, that about covers it.

Re: Stock Market

Postby count2infinity on Wed Apr 25, 2012 3:43 pm

ExPatriatePen wrote:
KennyTheKangaroo wrote:Translation: WVU sucks


Why does everything always come back to that refrain with some people?

Reminds me of a grade school playground... :roll:


same reason that when you talk to non-penguins fans it always comes back to "Crosby sucks!" There's no talking to those types of people.
count2infinity
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 18,910
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:03 pm
Location: Can't wait for playoffs to up the dumb level ten fold in this place.

Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Wed Apr 25, 2012 3:45 pm

ExPatriatePen wrote:
KennyTheKangaroo wrote:Translation: WVU sucks


Why does everything always come back to that refrain with some people?

Reminds me of a grade school playground... :roll:


kenny the kangaroo tries to keep it as high brow as possible
KennyTheKangaroo
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 11,269
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:15 am
Location: Under the Skycoaster

Re: Stock Market

Postby count2infinity on Wed Apr 25, 2012 3:48 pm

btw... in no way am i saying Crosby = WVU
count2infinity
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 18,910
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:03 pm
Location: Can't wait for playoffs to up the dumb level ten fold in this place.

Re: Stock Market

Postby JeffDFD on Mon May 14, 2012 10:34 pm

a whole lot of suck coming out of the market recently
JeffDFD
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,529
Joined: Wed May 21, 2008 2:55 pm
Location: Inside the tumor in Crosby's neck.

Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Mon May 14, 2012 10:36 pm

JeffDFD wrote:a whole lot of suck coming out of the market recently


Yes. :(
columbia
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 42,555
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:13 am

Re: Stock Market

Postby Streaks House on Mon May 14, 2012 10:42 pm

JP Morgan. Man.
Streaks House
ECHL'er
ECHL'er
 
Posts: 1,488
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:16 pm
Location: Ted Carrick's Table

Re: Stock Market

Postby JeffDFD on Mon May 14, 2012 10:55 pm

Streaks House wrote:JP Morgan. Man.


5 days = down 14%.
JeffDFD
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,529
Joined: Wed May 21, 2008 2:55 pm
Location: Inside the tumor in Crosby's neck.

Re: Stock Market

Postby mac5155 on Tue May 15, 2012 8:30 am

Am I supposed to feel sorry for them..?
mac5155
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 46,169
Joined: Wed Dec 20, 2006 9:06 pm
Location: governor of Fayettenam

Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Tue May 15, 2012 8:33 am

ExPatriatePen wrote:
JeffDFD wrote:Down big today. Wonder how the week will go. Buying opportunity? Anybody looking at anything specific?


You'll get a chance to buy lower (at least the averages)

I wouldn't pull the trigger here.


Almost one month since I wrote this, my least favorite sector, financials are way off from where they were on April 23rd.

Still think we see softness through the early summer. I don't like the market here at all. Especially with my earlier prediction of Greece leaving the Euro looking more and more like its going to happen.
ExPatriatePen
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 22,719
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Source, Destination, Protocol, Port, size, sequence number, check sum... Yep, that about covers it.

Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Tue May 15, 2012 9:03 am

too much grandstanding over this jp morgan thing.
KennyTheKangaroo
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 11,269
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:15 am
Location: Under the Skycoaster

Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Tue May 15, 2012 9:17 am

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:too much grandstanding over this jp morgan thing.


Tactically, yes. Strategically, not so much.

JPM Chase as a bank will be better for it (in a years time). It'll force even more internal controls to what is already the best risk management in the financial sector. I'm sure JPM isn't the only one doing these CDS trades (which in this case was weird, loans to Europe, CDS sales to hedge, other CDS trades to take that hedge off - which brings up an interesting question, what *do* you call a hedge of a hedge?)

The bigger question coming from this is a regulatory question, more or less? (my opinion is to break up investment banking from FDIC insured deposits - Glass Steagall anyone?) don't you just love Obama jumping in to use this as a case for more government involvement?

Anyway, I'm actually tempted to buy some JPM here.
ExPatriatePen
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 22,719
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Source, Destination, Protocol, Port, size, sequence number, check sum... Yep, that about covers it.

Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Tue May 15, 2012 11:18 am

ExPatriatePen wrote: (which in this case was weird, loans to Europe, CDS sales to hedge, other CDS trades to take that hedge off - which brings up an interesting question, what *do* you call a hedge of a hedge?)

The bigger question coming from this is a regulatory question, more or less? (my opinion is to break up investment banking from FDIC insured deposits - Glass Steagall anyone?) don't you just love Obama jumping in to use this as a case for more government involvement?

Anyway, I'm actually tempted to buy some JPM here.


The answer to the question of what do you call a hedge of a hedge is probably "Wall street shenanigans." The better question is, what DO you call the mere concept of buying insurance on an imaginary index of euopean corporate debt ? Thats also shenanigans, too.

But the grandstanding that is annoying kenny the kangaroo is the politcal grandstanding over this whole thing. Fannie mae and freedic mac have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in the past few years. Why doesnt commander in chief barak obama climb atop hsi ivory tower and whine about that?

also

What are your thoughts on natural gas producers (other than chesapeake) as a long term buy and hold?
KennyTheKangaroo
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 11,269
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:15 am
Location: Under the Skycoaster

Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed May 16, 2012 7:14 pm

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
What are your thoughts on natural gas producers (other than chesapeake) as a long term buy and hold?


So, the folks over in the Political Thread will tell you I'm an unabashed proponent of natural gas.

I have been for three or four years now, and have lost quite a bit of money on drillers, support services, mid stream operations MLP's and other Natty Gas plays.

I'm constantly amazed that the commodity itself seems to know no bottom, the Obama administration, who loves stimulus of just about anything, refuses to encourage domestic resources, and in spite of gas approaching $5 a gallon, the free market isn't converting wholesale to Natty Gas as a transportation fuel.

Bottom line, my favorite plays are risky, but they include:

FSYS - Fuel systems
NRGY - Mid stream (storage operations)
CBI - Gas infrastructure building

I'm not fond of any drillers/production companies here.

I think we're probably still 3-4 years out from Gas commodity price appreciation. But I still like the long term trend.

(late edit to correct some spelling errors and typo's that were bugging me)
Last edited by ExPatriatePen on Sun May 20, 2012 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
ExPatriatePen
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 22,719
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Source, Destination, Protocol, Port, size, sequence number, check sum... Yep, that about covers it.

Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Thu May 17, 2012 10:26 am

that is very good insight there EPP, thanks.

a few things:

A.) Will Obama ever accuse "speculators" of holding natural gas prices low, just like he accuses "speculators" of inflating the price of oil?

B.) One of the natural gas stocks kenny the kangaroo had in mind was Encana (ECA). they kind of fit kenny the kangaroo's style, but they are also a producer.

C.) Kenny the kangaroo might just take the easy way out and buy an natural gas etf like FCG (not UNG or GAZ or any of those)
KennyTheKangaroo
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 11,269
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:15 am
Location: Under the Skycoaster

Re: Stock Market

Postby Firebird on Thu May 17, 2012 5:04 pm

Starting to seem as if this tailspin will never end.
Firebird
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 2,728
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:12 pm

Re: Stock Market

Postby Tomas on Fri May 18, 2012 12:36 am

So who is ready to invest in FB @$38?

Here is an eclectic list of valuation articles (I myself am quite a strong believer of at least ex-post backing the valuation estimate with a DCF analysis) all suggesting that price is crazy (I just finished teaching a corporate valuation course, and this was the content of my last course email. What's interesting is that the "market" thinks the stock will close even HIGHER (over 50% chance at $45+ http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91681 )):

Here is an interesting article on Facebook estimated DCF value. Note that similarly to our Netscape valuation (which utilized "pure play growth" estimates based on Microsoft), Facebook value is also based on the growth rates achieved by its arguable pure play - Google.

http://wallstreetpit.com/91904-facebook ... -ipo-range

Even more interestingly, here is the actual DFC calculator Thomson Reuters used to estimate Facebook value:

http://link.reuters.com/peb28s

(If you click "View full calculator" - you'll actually get the complete Excel spreadsheet with the valuation).

Yet another DCF calculator (Financial Times):

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/8a21debe ... z1uUTzJxSU

Here are some arguments based on the valuation using multiples:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/567771- ... ook-shares

And a little unorthodox approach based on direct comparisons with pure plays:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-k-cl ... 76402.html
Tomas
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,169
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:21 am

Re: Stock Market

Postby Tomas on Fri May 18, 2012 11:37 am

FB opening was delayed by ~30 minutes - apparently due to the avalanche of last minute sell orders. The stock opened at $42.05 (the expectations were first at ~$50, then lowered down to $45, then lowered further down), shot up very briefly to $43, but after less than 10 minutes it's below $40...
Tomas
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,169
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:21 am

Re: Stock Market

Postby Tomas on Fri May 18, 2012 11:58 am

Now I guess only limit orders (and underwriter support?) keep FB from falling below the IPO subscription price of $38.
Tomas
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,169
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:21 am

Re: Stock Market

Postby Tomas on Fri May 18, 2012 12:32 pm

Fun with numbers:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47388424

CNBC also reported that U2's Bono (a partner in Elevation Partners in the above list) will make more money from his Facebook investment than all the profits he made through his music in his lifetime...
Last edited by Tomas on Fri May 18, 2012 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tomas
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,169
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:21 am

Re: Stock Market

Postby steelhammer on Fri May 18, 2012 12:37 pm

Appreciate your take on this as always, Tomas. Forgive my limited knowledge of the financial sector, but this just seems like such a scam.
steelhammer
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 3,279
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 12:31 am
Location: Hold on, I have a stat for that.

Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Fri May 18, 2012 4:14 pm

Tomas, you don't post near often enough in this thread. If you ever come to NYC ( or I ever get down to Razorback country ) I would love to buy you a beer!
ExPatriatePen
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 22,719
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Source, Destination, Protocol, Port, size, sequence number, check sum... Yep, that about covers it.

Re: Stock Market

Postby AlexPKeaton on Fri May 18, 2012 4:17 pm

Shaky IPO day for Facebook I would think if they have to resort to their underwriters to keep the stock up.
AlexPKeaton
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 12,538
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:46 am
Location: Malkinite Compound

Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Fri May 18, 2012 4:18 pm

As I heard on the radio...

Zuckerberg is now worth as much as the endowment of Harvard.
columbia
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 42,555
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2008 12:13 am

PreviousNext

Return to NHR

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: blackjack68, skullman80 and 9 guests

e-mail