Stock Market

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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:02 pm

Just don't say 140k is "well over six figures"

:)
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Mon Dec 23, 2013 3:19 pm

Some choice quotes from Mr. Bogle (in a 3 part interview):

I think most of them are silly. First they're faddish. When an alternative comes up as a diversifier, advisors say you need to diversity the different asset classes. But it's always the asset class that's done well recently. So gold is popular now. The problem with anything to do with commodities or gold is that they have no internal rate of return. What protects you from a bad judgment on an individual investment if your timing is bad in stocks or bonds is that in the long-term the income bails you out. Bonds are supported by the interest coupon. And stocks are supported by those growing dividend yields and earnings and will be for a long time I think. So what's the internal rate of return with gold? There is none.

What there is, however, is hope that you can sell it for more than you paid for. That's what we call rank speculation. So if you want to speculate on gold, be my guest. But understand that it's not really an investment. Real estate is supposed to be a separate asset class. It gets popular, the prices get bid up, without people realizing that real estate in securitized form is different from real estate itself. In other words, you buy an apartment building and collect rents and so on, and you're there. You're participating. But you put it in securitized form and the valuation of that apartment going up and down in value every day while the income stream remains the same to you.


People will talk about tax efficiency as a reason for these ETFs but indexing is inherently tax efficient so they're low cost (no difference), they're tax efficient (no difference) and the third quoted advantage is the ability to trade all day long in real time. "Now you can trade the S&P 500 Index in real time" was the slogan in the newspapers for the first ETF. What kind of nut would do that?


http://www.mmexecutive.com/news/vanguar ... .html?pg=1


Picking stocks is a fool's game, not because there aren't going to be winners and losers but because people have to understand the market is a closed system. The average stock is going to be average and the average investor is going to be average no matter what you do. For investors saying they want to get into this fray and want to outthink, outperform, outguess, out-strategize their neighbors, some will and some won't. But I think that has much more to do with gambling than investing.



http://www.mmexecutive.com/news/are-etf ... .html?pg=1


Q: Why are active managers convinced of their superior long-term performance, despite evidence to the contrary?

Well maybe they don't think about it. There’s a great quote from Upton Sinclair, which I’m paraphrasing: it’s amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand.



http://www.mmexecutive.com/news/what-va ... .html?pg=1
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Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Mon Dec 23, 2013 3:41 pm

kenny the kangaroo have been doing some intense self evaluation on kenny the kangaroo's performance versus the S&P. Since late 2008, i have had an "play" type account that i picked some etfs and individual stocks.basically i went back, and compared the S&P at the date i bought a holding to the price of the S&P today.

So far most of the picks have been duds to a small degree, usually trailing the S&P as a whole by less than 5%. However, there have been some real stinkers, most notably a brazillian etf that i bought a few months before the brazil hit the rocks. there were, of course, a few big winners that actually really creamed the S&P, but not enough to make make up for the drain of the smaller losers. but in the end, ive trailed the s&p by less than 10%. thats not bad, but id rather have the extra $$$.

i wish i had a way to take into account dividends but im too lazy for that.

i dont think its a cooincidence that the stocks i spent the most time researching did better than the ones that i picked based on stupid articles or speculation. im also dumb/stubborn enough to believe that i have a punchers chance of beating the market, but at the end of the day, it seems highly unlikely that ill have enough time to make it worthwhile.

overall i made
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Mon Dec 23, 2013 5:22 pm

You made?

I put some cash into an energy fund in July, until I wised up and realized/remembered that I do not (maybe some do?) have ability to pick winners and losers at the sector level.
I think it went up about 3% in the time I held it, but I don't plan on going down that road again.

Occasionally, I am tempted by "small cap value", but, again, feel like that's chasing things that might or might not be there in the future.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Mon Dec 23, 2013 6:14 pm

Small cap value is an oxymoron .

Look up the performance of those funds in Morningstar
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Mon Dec 23, 2013 6:15 pm

Hence why I haven't sone anything.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:01 am

The Shiller P/E 10 is back over 26:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Make of that, what you will.

Since I have another 25 years to invest, I'm going to do what I planned to do.....nothing. :)
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Troy Loney on Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:46 pm

mutual fund performance question, for some reason this account activity seems weird to me.

The fund pays a quarterly dividend and does a capital gains distribution twice a year, it all gets reinvested. The day before the capital gain this year, the fund went down 3% in a single day. The Dow went up that day, which just seemed really odd to me, the returns seem to just be a watered down s&p, going up slightly when the market rises, and moving very little on a day to day basis. So basically, my year end payout just replenished that 1 day loss, the day before the payout. wtf?
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:49 pm

Troy Loney wrote:mutual fund performance question, for some reason this account activity seems weird to me.

The fund pays a quarterly dividend and does a capital gains distribution twice a year, it all gets reinvested. The day before the capital gain this year, the fund went down 3% in a single day. The Dow went up that day, which just seemed really odd to me, the returns seem to just be a watered down s&p, going up slightly when the market rises, and moving very little on a day to day basis. So basically, my year end payout just replenished that 1 day loss, the day before the payout. wtf?

See also: Wolf of Wall Street

Seriously? Don't pay attention to four data points.
What are the 3-5 year returns?
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:50 pm

Troy Loney wrote:mutual fund performance question, for some reason this account activity seems weird to me.

The fund pays a quarterly dividend and does a capital gains distribution twice a year, it all gets reinvested. The day before the capital gain this year, the fund went down 3% in a single day. The Dow went up that day, which just seemed really odd to me, the returns seem to just be a watered down s&p, going up slightly when the market rises, and moving very little on a day to day basis. So basically, my year end payout just replenished that 1 day loss, the day before the payout. wtf?


It always does that.

Your NAV goes down, because the fund paid out the dividends.
In this case, you are choosing to reinvest them...so a day or so later, the NAV is back to where it was (independent of any daily gain), but now you own more shares.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Troy Loney on Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:58 pm

ok that makes sense, so because payments are coming out of the fund, that' why there's a big one day drop. It was a little startling to see it drop 3% in one day, I only started the fund this year and the return was around 14%. I called somebody to make sure that wasn't some fee because as an employee, my account isn't supposed to have any fees, whoever I spoke with said the 3% drop was just normal fluctuation, which i knew wasn't the right answer.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:16 pm

Nevermind...not a good idea for me.
Last edited by columbia on Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:03 pm

Been hanging onto a near worthless penny stock in the "green" business, up about 100 percent this week. Thanks Colorado
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Sun Jan 12, 2014 11:18 am

Updated Callan Table of Investment Returns:

Image
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:14 pm

Emerging markets is really hit or miss
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:46 pm

The chart certainly speaks to the difficulty (some might say folly*) of trying to predict which sectors of the market will outperform the others.


* http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html
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Re: Stock Market

Postby JeffDFD on Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:58 pm

columbia wrote:The chart certainly speaks to the difficulty (some might say folly*) of trying to predict which sectors of the market will outperform the others.


* http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html


I see you post a lot about Bogle...do you have a 3 fund portfolio or something similar?
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:03 pm

Yep. :)

Total stock, total international and total bond.

Not very sexy, but I sleep well at night. :thumb:
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:12 pm

columbia wrote:Yep. :)

Total stock, total international and total bond.

Not very sexy, but I sleep well at night. :thumb:


Good luck with those bonds
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:36 pm

I took my bond funds out of my allocation yesterday actually.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Sun Jan 12, 2014 3:08 pm

ulf wrote:I took my bond funds out of my allocation yesterday actually.

Yeah, you may see a short term recovery in bonds (very small) but over the next 3 years at least, bonds are not going to be a good investment unless they're TIPS

I'd be happy to place a small wager with Colimbia on which will fair better from 1/1/14 to 12/31/16, bonds or gold.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Wed Jan 15, 2014 6:10 pm

ulf wrote:I took my bond funds out of my allocation yesterday actually.


I believe Tomas maintains 100% in equities.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:34 pm

columbia wrote:
ulf wrote:I took my bond funds out of my allocation yesterday actually.


I believe Tomas maintains 100% in equities.

And if I'm not mistaken, he's a bond guy.
I'm sure he'll correct me if I'm wrong.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Tomas on Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:59 pm

ExPatriatePen wrote:
columbia wrote:
ulf wrote:I took my bond funds out of my allocation yesterday actually.


I believe Tomas maintains 100% in equities.

And if I'm not mistaken, he's a bond guy.
I'm sure he'll correct me if I'm wrong.


A lot of great posts and ideas in this thread. Hopefully I'll have more time to participate, once my life gets in order (among other things, the "HVAC thread" :) ).

In my personal portfolio, I do have bonds (i.e. bond ETFs).

For my retirement portfolio - no way I'd invest in bonds (mainly because I believe that the worst average return for stocks with 20+ year investment horizon is VASTLY above the best average bond return with the same horizon). I will start using bonds only when I start nearing the retirement age (to take some risk out of the portfolio), but I don't plan to introduce bonds until I turn (at least?) 50.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Wed Jan 29, 2014 7:40 pm

No comment on the myRA from the SOTU address? Guaranteed return and no risk!!
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