The Official LGP College Football Realignment Thread

[newarenanow]

NBC would be crazy to offer the Big East more money than the ACC as its constructed now.

Why? The Big East has the number #1 and #4 markets in the country.

Two and three are Chicago (heart of Big Ten) and L.A. (PAC). What does the ACC have?

What's #4? The Boston Market?

Philly.

[newarenanow]

If basketball was included that would make a difference. Would NBC ditch ND then infavor of a Big East deal?

ND is working on making it's own network right now. But I'd imagine they'd still keep their deal with NBC for their home FB games.

[Point Breeze Penguins]

Why could they not have both? Especially since ND is in the BE for Basketball?

[thehockeyguru]

Why could they not have both? Especially since ND is in the BE for Basketball?

I guess depending on the cost they could do both, but if ND is going to launch their own Network then NBC's only option will be the Big East. I wish NBC would strong arm ND though.

[Draftnik]

NBC would be crazy to offer the Big East more money than the ACC as its constructed now.

ESPN offered the Big East a comparable deal to the ACC over the summer and the Big East turned it down knowing if it hit the open market, they could get more money.

NBC is trying to get into the college sports world. The other 5 BCS conferences are locked up in long term deals. ESPN wants to keep the Big East. NBC wants to pry it away so they have not only the FB content, but a winters worth of BB content.

The supply for other conferences is nill, yet the demand is high. = more $$$$

There is a lot of misunderstanding about the nature of the ACC’s deal with ESPN. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but the ACC regionally syndicates their conference basketball games in all of the ACC markets through Raycom.

That basically means all of the ESPN ACC hoops games are blacked out on ESPN in MD, DC, VA, NC, SC, GA, & FL. I’m not sure about Boston and the Massachusetts market. All of those games are shown on local over-the-air stations in traditional ACC territory. Even in MD for example, the local stations show non-MD ACC games, so it isn’t a case of only the markets of the teams playing being blacked out on ESPN.

The most lucrative markets for ratings on ACC hoops games and the sponsorship dollars attached to those viewers are obviously the ACC markets, so ESPN’s “national” rights fee isn’t buying the best markets when they contract to show ACC basketball. That depresses the rights fees significantly.

If the Big East didn’t sell ESPN the rights to show their games in NY, NJ, PA, DC, CT, etc the rights fees they received from ESPN for the content would be a lot less.

[ExPatriatePen]

Wait are we talking about Football broadcast rights or Basketball broadcast rights?

[Draftnik]

Mot conferences package their FB & BB rights in the same deal. It looks like NAN is right and the BE will trump the new ACC deal. The structure appears to be changed based on this press release and ESPN owns the rights to syndicate the games in ACC territories. It looks like syndication of regular season BB games won’t occur in regional markets but the ACC tourney still looks like it will be regionally syndicated and blacked out in ACC markets. Plus ESPN also bought the Sunday Night national package Fox had and will show it on ESPNU.

http://www.theacc.com/genrel/070810aaa.html

The ACC won’t play FB games on Monday, (except for Labor Day), Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, or Sunday nights so that is one area the Big East has an advantage over the ACC in terms of offering ESPN programming inventory during slots ESPN wants to fill on their family of networks.

Plus the timing is good for the Big East to be negotiating after last year’s conference realignment. The SEC is already having sellers remorse over their TV deal with ESPN and if/when the Big East trumps the ACC I’m sure Swofford & the ADs will have sellers remorse as well.

[pressure=9Pa]

Don't expect NBC to spend big bucks to get top sports programming. Their model seems to be to find niche sports they can buy inexpensively, and grow the market by using the power of network tv. There are of course exceptions, but look at the triple crown races, Indycar (on Versus), the NHL, tennis, & non-major golf.

NBC just got seriously outbid by ABC/ESPN for the next few years of IndyCar racing, and ABC/ESPN is a terrible partner for that sport. Even when ESPN had the races they were constantly bumping them to ESPN News, wouldn't show qualifying results on the bottom line, and demanded that races end early so the next event wouldn't be bumped. Even after they secured the next contract, they aren't saying anything about the New Hampshire race last weekend (for which the protest just was agreed to be heard for the .0001% of you that follow IndyCar) and the associated controversy. If ESPN isn't interested in promoting it, they couldn't have bid that much, and they still beat out NBC/VS.

I can't see the same NBC spending big to capture a regional audience, no matter what size.

[newarenanow]

Don't expect NBC to spend big bucks to get top sports programming. Their model seems to be to find niche sports they can buy inexpensively, and grow the market by using the power of network tv. There are of course exceptions, but look at the triple crown races, Indycar (on Versus), the NHL, tennis, & non-major golf.

NBC just got seriously outbid by ABC/ESPN for the next few years of IndyCar racing, and ABC/ESPN is a terrible partner for that sport. Even when ESPN had the races they were constantly bumping them to ESPN News, wouldn't show qualifying results on the bottom line, and demanded that races end early so the next event wouldn't be bumped. Even after they secured the next contract, they aren't saying anything about the New Hampshire race last weekend (for which the protest just was agreed to be heard for the .0001% of you that follow IndyCar) and the associated controversy. If ESPN isn't interested in promoting it, they couldn't have bid that much, and they still beat out NBC/VS.

I can't see the same NBC spending big to capture a regional audience, no matter what size.

They won't be spending monster dollars. That is why they bowed out of the Pac 12 running after ESPN offered $22M per team per year over the life of the contract. The ACC is at $13MM. ESPN offered the BE a deal that would essentially be $11MM per team (on the FB side) as they are still only exclusively allowed to deal with ESPN right now (I think that expires next Sept).

I can see NBC offering up to $14-15MM average to get the Big East, assuming the TV bubble doesn't burst. They are not breaking the bank, but yet are spending some cash.

It will be interesting how it plays out. Conference relignment might throw that out the window, especially if a BE team or two gets raided.

[jimjom]

I read on some blog that if A&M leaves, Kansas would jump to the BE and they've already had talks with the BE. You'd think K State and or Missou would follow.

[newarenanow]

I read on some blog that if A&M leaves, Kansas would jump to the BE and they've already had talks with the BE. You'd think K State and or Missou would follow.

Not going to happen unless OU leaves the Big XII and everything blows up.

If it is the blog you are talking about though, it is regarding KStates new media deal and the author was using sarcasm saying Kansas was mad and looking at the BE, poking fun at A&M.

The only way the other teams in teh Big XII split is if OU leads the charge and takes them and OSU to the Pac 12. That will be teh death of the Big XII.

[newarenanow]

The Big East, ACC, and Big XII commissioners are setting up a meeting face to face to discuss conference realignment in the next few weeks, to discuss how "to do it the right way". They have also reached out to the NCAA commish to try to intervene, although there isn't much he can do.

This just shows who in the BCS world are the ones to be raided. The big 10, Pac 12, and SEC run the show.

I think all three of the above conferences meeting feel they will be losing members to reshuffling if the A&M and SEC move goes through.

I think they will try to discuss making a pact that they will need feed off of each other just in case any of the conferences lose any members. They may determine that if they get raided by the Big 10, SEC, or Pac 12, they will replace from the non BCS ranks if the moves are minimal, or are coming to an agreement to merge if there are significant moves in order to protect the schools remaining.

Honestly, I don't feel bad for Swofford. I know it was the best move for the ACC to take Miami, VT, and BC, but he was doing what the SEC is doing 8 years ago. He raided a partner BCS conference to make his better. But now that his conference is vulnerable, he believes this practice is unfair.

[Draftnik]

Swofford tried to make the ACC a legitimate FB conference. In retrospect it didn't make sense because too many ACC schools (MD, VA, WF, GT, BC, dook) don't have the institutional commitment to field the best possible FB teams. Plus the academic requirements hurt the schools that care relative to the lower SEC standards.

Swofford is a tar heel. They live in a different world. I'd love it if MD were endowed like this, but UNC really doesn't have any financial pressures. All of their athletic scholarships were fully endowed. That might have changed during the past few years with lower stock prices and falling interest rates, but they are still incredibly well off:



Plus they cheat and only charge in-state tuition to out of state athletes to further lower their costs:

http://www.civitasreview.com/education/ ... athletics/

I don't think the bill passed.

They took their swing for big time FB and failed with Butch Davis but UNC doesn't face the same financial pressures other schools have to increase revenues. Their athletic endowment will keep them in ahead of all other schools regardless of what happens to the ACC. They run the ACC like the mafia runs organized crime, so the conference will always exist in some form, regardless of potential defections.

[Draftnik]

I give the Mounties for this move.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11230/1168247-100.stm

If they ever try to get into the ACC it won’t go down well with the Carolina teetotalers.

[newarenanow]

I give the Mounties for this move.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11230/1168247-100.stm

If they ever try to get into the ACC it won’t go down well with the Carolina teetotalers.

Pitt and RU are the only two schools now in the BE that don't sell beer in the general seating areas.

(Pitt serves in the club areas).

[ExPatriatePen]

I give the Mounties for this move.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11230/1168247-100.stm

If they ever try to get into the ACC it won’t go down well with the Carolina teetotalers.

$7 to $9 a beer?

That's more than it costs at a Mets game up here in NYC at Citi Field!

This will CUT DOWN on drinking at Mountaineer field. How so you ask? Because what the article doesn't mention is that along with allowing beer sales there's a new rule that disallows free exit and re-entry into the stadium during games.

WVU fans were known for setting up tailgating outside the stadium, and filling coolers full of refreshment. Easy exit and re-entry allowed them to drink copiously for only the "price premium" of a short walk.

Now they'll have to pay $7 a beer if they want a cold one during the game.

[Draftnik]

SportsBizMiss chimes in on the economic impact of TA&M potentially leaving the B12:

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011 ... ng-to-sec/

[newarenanow]

SportsBizMiss chimes in on the economic impact of TA&M potentially leaving the B12:

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011 ... ng-to-sec/

I read that. Makes some good points. But no one will know the ultimate impact, as numbers are overblown on both sides.

Baylor has the most to lose if there is a major shakeup. I don't think anyone wants them. They will be in the MWC if the Big XII would ever disband.

Not sure how everything went down when the old SWC broke up 15 years ago, but I don't know how much Baylor was complaining when they left behind Rice, SMU and TCU.

[Draftnik]

Sports Biz Miss says the SEC will be able to go back to ESPN and open their TV contract if they expand. That explains why they might expand. It could be their ticket to create an SEC network.

I don't think SEC expansion will trigger a major upheaval in conference alignment. A few schools might move as a result of the SEC expanding, but the SEC being able to create an SEC network would be a Grand Slam for them. No other conference has that kind of upside right now in terms of adding another team or two.

[Draftnik]

Conference TV contract valuations:

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011 ... breakdown/

School specific 3rd tier deals:

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011 ... g-revenue/

UNC is like the Fed. They print $$$.

[newarenanow]

Sports Biz Miss says the SEC will be able to go back to ESPN and open their TV contract if they expand. That explains why they might expand. It could be their ticket to create an SEC network.

I don't think SEC expansion will trigger a major upheaval in conference alignment. A few schools might move as a result of the SEC expanding, but the SEC being able to create an SEC network would be a Grand Slam for them. No other conference has that kind of upside right now in terms of adding another team or two.

I agree. I don't think there will be a major upheaval, at least initially. I honestly think the following will happen:

- A&M goes to SEC, and either Mizzou, NC State, or WVU is the 14th team. I think it will be WVU IMO, as I don't think the SEC wants to go to Mizzou, and NC State (or any other ACC team) would say "no".

The ultimate loser out of this is going to be the BE. I think the BE is going to lose 1 team, and it most likely will be WVU. This all at a time when it looked like the BE was going to get a good TV contract and catch up to the lower half of the BCS $$$ wise.

I think when we will ultimately know if there is going to be a huge landscape shift is 2015-2016. That is when the Big 10 renegotiates it's TV deal. IF ESPN wants the Big 10 to expand and willing to pay them the $$$$ to do so, to get into some other markets, that is when you will see another shift.

If there is only partial movement, I don't like where Pitt will be. We will most likely be in a conference that has lost 1 or 2 other teams.

[thehockeyguru]

What would the SEC want with WVU?

[ExPatriatePen]

What would the SEC want with WVU?

[newarenanow]

What would the SEC want with WVU?

Are you serious?

[ExPatriatePen]

What would the SEC want with WVU?

Are you serious?

Don't mind him. He's a PSU and Miami Hurricanes fan (he's also a Ravens fan living in Pittsburgh).

Other than that he's a OK guy.