Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:49 am

beerman wrote:
the errey i breathe wrote:I'm not sure Hanny brings you more at the deadline. He'd only be a half season rental at that point, teams pay for control and will likely give more for 1 year vs. .5. The only guy who has potential for a decent return is GFJ, assuming NH can fool someone into believing last year can be repeated.


I kind of agree but two things could work in the Pirates favor by waiting until the deadline.

First being no one is desperate for a closer or even a set-up guy (if someone wanted to use him as such) right now, sure some teams want one but they don't have a reason to overpay. At the deadline you may just find someone who is desperate, either by injury or someone underperforming, to acquire an arm and could possibly get just as much for him.

Second, while 1 year vs .5 years of control should get them more return in a trade it's also possible that he offers the most value by being a Pirate for half a season and then being traded. Basically half season of Hanrahan as the closer + the return in a deadline deal > return on a Hanrahan trade now..

Problem with waiting is he could blow his arm out or just suck and then they get nothing in a trade or production. Or they are right in the thick of things as they were the last two years and then they feel they can't trade him. I'd probably lean towards doing a deal now myself but if the return is only someone like Capuano then I don't think they'll get anything drastically less at the deadline and would probably be further ahead just hanging on.


I think the question is, if you have Hanrahan's projected 7M off the books do they bring in another player? If they do and can improve the ball club then I say make the move. If they cant and will just "save the money" then I'm not for trading him.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby canaan on Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:53 am

I didnt mind correia in the 5th spot...the twins could do worse...but at 5 mil, yikes.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:59 am

If their plan is to swap hanrahan for some middling starter like Capuano, then the team is simply better off having that dominant back end of the bullpen than some replacement level veteran innings eater.

If they do fall out of contention they'd probably have a better chance pulling in a decent prospect if Hanrahan turns out being the best relief pitcher on the trade market. It's sort of like this, if you trade him now your looking for a current asset that is probably of meagre value. I think the prospect of keeping your closer for $7M with the option of moving him at the deadline is the much better more.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Mr. Colby on Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:38 pm

I think you hang on to Hanrahan until the offers get better, which doesn't necessarily mean when the season starts. Right now no one is desperate for a late innings arm because they have plenty of time to find one, but as ST approaches so might desperation
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:49 pm

Troy Loney wrote:If their plan is to swap hanrahan for some middling starter like Capuano, then the team is simply better off having that dominant back end of the bullpen than some replacement level veteran innings eater.


But if he is added to a package where we can get a 1B, I'd do it. I dont think anyone can see Jones sustaining his production.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby HomerPenguin on Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:05 pm

This seems like a simple decision. If all you're being offered for Hanrahan right now is trash, you hold on to him. The worst that can happen is you get to the deadline and you're still being offered trash. If Hanrahan has a good year, then you have the option of dealing him for whatever at the deadline or keeping him, making him an offer in the offseason, and hoping he signs elsewhere and you get a compensatory pick. Or, you just let him leave without compensation, which is a wash if you're not being offered anything of value in trade anyway.

Of course, the 10th richest owner in Major League Baseball probably doesn't want to hang on to Hanrahan for a year at ~$7 million, but from a baseball perspective, if he's not going to get you anything in trade now, there's no question you hang on to him. It's not like he has nothing to contribute on the field.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:18 pm

HomerPenguin wrote:This seems like a simple decision. If all you're being offered for Hanrahan right now is trash, you hold on to him. The worst that can happen is you get to the deadline and you're still being offered trash. If Hanrahan has a good year, then you have the option of dealing him for whatever at the deadline or keeping him, making him an offer in the offseason, and hoping he signs elsewhere and you get a compensatory pick. Or, you just let him leave without compensation, which is a wash if you're not being offered anything of value in trade anyway.

Of course, the 10th richest owner in Major League Baseball probably doesn't want to hang on to Hanrahan for a year at ~$7 million, but from a baseball perspective, if he's not going to get you anything in trade now, there's no question you hang on to him. It's not like he has nothing to contribute on the field.


I dont think it is that simple if you can use Hanrahan's money to sign a UFA that can better help the club.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:29 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:I dont think it is that simple if you can use Hanrahan's money to sign a UFA that can better help the club.


who is the UFA that you speak of? are you going to use some of that $7 million to find another bullpen arm with a pulse?

and remember, $7 million gets you 1.4 Kevin Correias in the free agent market.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Mr. Colby on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:00 pm

Better off with a year of Hanrahan and a compensation pick than trading Hanrahan for a pile of garbage and lighting 7 million dollars on fire in free agency
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:08 pm

Do you think Hanrahan would turn down 13M for one year? Probably, but he might so if I'm NH I can't offer him arbitration. So the compensatory pick is not part of the equation.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:23 pm

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:I dont think it is that simple if you can use Hanrahan's money to sign a UFA that can better help the club.


who is the UFA that you speak of? are you going to use some of that $7 million to find another bullpen arm with a pulse?

and remember, $7 million gets you 1.4 Kevin Correias in the free agent market.


Brandon McCarthy signed for 2 yrs 15.5M. I would have been down for that.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Rocco on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:36 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
thehockeyguru wrote:I dont think it is that simple if you can use Hanrahan's money to sign a UFA that can better help the club.


who is the UFA that you speak of? are you going to use some of that $7 million to find another bullpen arm with a pulse?

and remember, $7 million gets you 1.4 Kevin Correias in the free agent market.


Brandon McCarthy signed for 2 yrs 15.5M. I would have been down for that.


Should have signed him just for the shots of his wife.

Image
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby beerman on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:37 pm

Agreed
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:39 pm

I know we went after Edwin Jackson last off season and he turned us down. But if we could toss out a similar offer of 1yr 10M he's another guy I'd take over Hanrahan.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby canaan on Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:53 pm

yowza. can we sign her?
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:35 pm

canaan wrote:yowza. can we sign her?


lol.

on another note, there's been some rumblings about handerhan again. Stark mentions the tigers, and there is also a report about the Tigers receiving interest in porcello. Would you guys consider that swap?
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:12 pm

I'm more interested in getting Shin Soo Choo. Porcello to me is more of an NL style pitcher, he needs to work on his change and curve.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby thehockeyguru on Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:18 pm

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the Cincinnati Reds are deep in talks for Choo. To get an idea of the price for Choo, the Reds would be sending Drew Stubbs and shortstop Didi Gregorius, and would receive one other player. Stubbs still has three years of control remaining. He was a 1.3 WAR player in 2012, a 2.6 in 2011, and a 4.0 in 2010


http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/12/pirates-have-shown-interest-in-shin-soo-choo.html
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Rocco on Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:08 pm

Troy Loney wrote:
canaan wrote:yowza. can we sign her?


lol.

on another note, there's been some rumblings about handerhan again. Stark mentions the tigers, and there is also a report about the Tigers receiving interest in porcello. Would you guys consider that swap?


I'd take Porcello. He's a ground ball pitcher who had to deal with the Detroit infield. The Pirates infield was actually quite decent last year.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby ulf on Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:27 pm

I would have liked Choo. He's heading to Cinci in a three team trade with AZ, too. I also think Snider would never develop getting 4th OF ABs, so I'm also anxious to see what he can do with semi-regular ABs.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Mr. Colby on Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:18 pm

For what the ask is on Shin-Soo Choo, I say no way. Only 1 year of control.

Porcello would be sweet - 3 more years of control and he's only 23 years old.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby ulf on Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:19 pm

porcello was worse than correia last year. i'd be happy having him for all 0 years
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Kraftster on Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:35 pm

I thought porcello had some pretty crap luck last year.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby Rocco on Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:38 pm

Porcello's WAR according to Fangraphs was 2.9. Correia was .9. Porcello's defense behind him added about half a run to his ERA, and Correia's D shaved about .2 from his ERA.
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Re: Official 2012-13 Pirates Off-Season Thread

Postby ulf on Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:39 pm

Career ERA 4.55. Last year he had a career high in Ks...107. Career average WHIP of 1.417. I don't have much interest in him. As much as I don't want to trade Hammer for Capuano, that would be leaps and bounds better than this imo. I get that he's 23 and can improve, but meh.
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