Official Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby columbia on Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:39 pm

"Rally killer." :roll:
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Mr. Colby on Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:56 pm

Pedro hit 36 home runs and got on base other ways 146 times this season. I'm no mathematician, but it appears to indicate it's easier to get on base another way than via the home run.

Nobody is arguing that a home run is a bad thing... it's a plate approach argument. I'd rather Pedro take a safer approach that yields a higher chance to get on base than a riskier approach that best case scenario results in the team still trailing. Or are we just ignoring risk involved in different plate approaches and throwing out numbers in a vacuum?
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Mr. Colby on Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:58 pm

Down two with nobody on in the 9th inning, Pedro should not be swinging for the fences. He should shorten up and make contact or draw a walk. If he happens to hit one over the fence with that approach, even better.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby skullman80 on Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:02 pm

I'd agree with that. That being said if he hits a home run in that situation you aren't saying WTF Pedro, cause now you are down 1 run instead of 2.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Rocco on Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:55 pm

Mr. Colby wrote:Down two with nobody on in the 9th inning, Pedro should not be swinging for the fences. He should shorten up and make contact or draw a walk. If he happens to hit one over the fence with that approach, even better.


Except the math says teams are more likely to win if they're down 1 in the 9th with nobody on than if they're down 2 with 1 on. You know what you need more than baserunners? Runs. It doesn't matter how you get them.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby IanMoran on Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:21 am

Rocco wrote:If you homer down 2, you're only down 1, meaning one swing of the bat ties the game. Wouldn't you rather your best power hitter cut the lead in half than be on first base (making him a GIDP candidate since he's slow) and then hoping lesser power hitters bring him home?

Or, to put numbers behind it:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/o ... &score2=-1

Image

So no, the numbers say pretty clearly a home run is better than a runner on base.

Here the problem with your analysis, avoiding the third scenario.

Same situation, but 1 out and still down 2 (after Pedro's terrible hacks) and they're down to 0.0314 chance to win

So to summarize, you're stating SWING FOR FENCES, EVEN IF GREATER CHANCE OF GETTING OUT... BECAUSE YOU'LL GO FROM A 15% CHANCE OF WINNING TO A 16%.... ignoring the fact you're making it most likely to go down to a 3% chance
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby CERV96 on Fri Oct 18, 2013 7:45 am

Regaurdless of numbers Pedro is going to get paid one way or another bottom line.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:21 am

Alvarez needs to be a better contact hitter. I'm not sure that's even debatable.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Factorial on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:23 am

Troy Loney wrote:Alvarez needs to be a better contact hitter. I'm not sure that's even debatable.


:thumb: And I think that is the point Mr. Colby is making.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Rocco on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:24 am

IanMoran wrote:
Rocco wrote:If you homer down 2, you're only down 1, meaning one swing of the bat ties the game. Wouldn't you rather your best power hitter cut the lead in half than be on first base (making him a GIDP candidate since he's slow) and then hoping lesser power hitters bring him home?

Or, to put numbers behind it:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/o ... &score2=-1

Image

So no, the numbers say pretty clearly a home run is better than a runner on base.

Here the problem with your analysis, avoiding the third scenario.

Same situation, but 1 out and still down 2 (after Pedro's terrible hacks) and they're down to 0.0314 chance to win

So to summarize, you're stating SWING FOR FENCES, EVEN IF GREATER CHANCE OF GETTING OUT... BECAUSE YOU'LL GO FROM A 15% CHANCE OF WINNING TO A 16%.... ignoring the fact you're making it most likely to go down to a 3% chance


No, actually, that's not at all what I'm saying. The original statement was that a home run was worthless in that situation. All I am saying is that a home run is never worthless, especially in that situation. Whether Pedro should be trying to homer there is a different matter altogether and depends a lot on the opposing pitcher, but if he goes deep he hasn't dramatically hurt the team's chances. It actually doubles their chances to win:

Image

You could argue that, with a 7% chance of winning, it's worth pursuing high-risk strategies since the difference between a 7% chance and a 3% chance is minimal. No one here is going to be angry if someone cuts a lead in half in the 9th inning because they selfishly homered rather than try for a bloop single.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Rocco on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:27 am

Troy Loney wrote:Alvarez needs to be a better contact hitter. I'm not sure that's even debatable.


I'm not sure he can be, though it would be nice. Chris Davis made his great leap forward this year in part because he improved his contact rate and dropped his K rate down (assuming that he's not on steroids, which isn't a safe assumption but we'll leave it alone for now). Pedro may just be this generation's Rob Deer.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Factorial on Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:33 am

Rocco wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:Alvarez needs to be a better contact hitter. I'm not sure that's even debatable.


I'm not sure he can be, though it would be nice. Chris Davis made his great leap forward this year in part because he improved his contact rate and dropped his K rate down (assuming that he's not on steroids, which isn't a safe assumption but we'll leave it alone for now). Pedro may just be this generation's Rob Deer.


Or Dave Kingman.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:26 am

Rocco wrote:I'm not sure he can be, though it would be nice. Chris Davis made his great leap forward this year in part because he improved his contact rate and dropped his K rate down (assuming that he's not on steroids, which isn't a safe assumption but we'll leave it alone for now). Pedro may just be this generation's Rob Deer.


blimpo has had like 1,800 plate appearances and his strikeout rate has been remarkably consistent throughout those 1,800 at bats. he his strikeout rate per plate apparance has been a steady 30% since day one. this gentleman doesnt think hes going to change at this point.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:34 am

So if you don't think he's going to progress, it seems pretty logical for the Pirates to just let him play out his arbitration years and then let him walk. They might end up having to go to arbitritration at one point cause I can see a pretty big gaps in how they evaluate a 35-40 HR guy who has a sub 800 OPS.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Beveridge on Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:50 am

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/ ... eu-reports

I think I saw mention of Pirates trying to land him.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby since1970 on Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:10 am

$11.3 a year, that's insane by the Chi Sox
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:11 am

Troy Loney wrote:So if you don't think he's going to progress, it seems pretty logical for the Pirates to just let him play out his arbitration years and then let him walk. They might end up having to go to arbitritration at one point cause I can see a pretty big gaps in how they evaluate a 35-40 HR guy who has a sub 800 OPS.


Yeah kenny the kangaroo would let pedro play out his arbitration years. If he ends up having a few seasons of 40+ home runs, or learns how to take a few walks, or somehow manages to cut down strikeouts, or somehow learns to hit lefties, good for him. hes can help the pirates win right now, but beyond that, kenny the kangaroo does not trust him.

that arbitration hearing would be a mess.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby IanMoran on Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:55 am

since1970 wrote:$11.3 a year, that's insane by the Chi Sox

Meh.... his numbers were insane, better than Puig's and Cespedes and he looked good in WBC vs. MLB pitching.

Obviously some risk, but I'm guessing it pans out

I'd do something like that 999999999999 times quicker than I'd do those Pujols, what Cano is demanding type of deals that has a 100% chance of failing imo.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby since1970 on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:01 am

yea, but not sure what minor league level the Cuban leagues are, and the WBC had guys whose arms aren't stretched out and are on pitch limits, and there were questions about bat speed. He might pan out, it will be interesting.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Rocco on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:03 am

Troy Loney wrote:So if you don't think he's going to progress, it seems pretty logical for the Pirates to just let him play out his arbitration years and then let him walk. They might end up having to go to arbitritration at one point cause I can see a pretty big gaps in how they evaluate a 35-40 HR guy who has a sub 800 OPS.


Unless he takes a great leap forward, that's what they should do. And if Pedro does take a great leap forward, he's not going to come back to Pittsburgh because someone will offer him a ridiculous sum of money. I could see them trying to buy out his arbitration years but I doubt either side is all that interested in a long term deal.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby canaan on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:04 am

he'll do well in his role as strictly 1B/DH. i hope hes on par emotionally with Puig because people get so butthurt about players actually having a personality.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby since1970 on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:11 am

...can't wait for his first walk off HR and he salsa dances his way from 3rd complete with music ready as soon as he hits the 3rd base bag, please let this happen.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:20 am

Rocco wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:So if you don't think he's going to progress, it seems pretty logical for the Pirates to just let him play out his arbitration years and then let him walk. They might end up having to go to arbitritration at one point cause I can see a pretty big gaps in how they evaluate a 35-40 HR guy who has a sub 800 OPS.


Unless he takes a great leap forward, that's what they should do. And if Pedro does take a great leap forward, he's not going to come back to Pittsburgh because someone will offer him a ridiculous sum of money. I could see them trying to buy out his arbitration years but I doubt either side is all that interested in a long term deal.


so the illuminti of the pirates thread all agree, signing pedro to a long term deal=bad idea
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:20 am

I know nothing about the guy, but if he hasn't played an MLB game, thats a lot of money.
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Re: Official 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates Thread

Postby TheGhostofGoulet on Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:32 am

Beveridge wrote:http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/9841115/chicago-white-sox-agree-record-deal-cuban-free-agent-1b-jose-abreu-reports

I think I saw mention of Pirates trying to land him.

If only Nutting cared enough about winning.
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