The Cardinals and Reds are bothing going to be really good this year and the astros are out of the division. So competing for a playoff spot is going to be difficult. It's going to be hard to get upset if they're around the 80 win total.
But if they pull a late season garbage tank, then hurdle and searage are going to have to go. The evidence would be strong that they're just not capable of keeping things together for 162 games.
I don't think they are as good as they have been in the past. Cincy should be the cat's meow of the division.
They have in house options like Shelby Miller. Plus, wasn't carpenter pretty much hurt all last season anyway. They're lineup is so stacked though it doesn't matter. I see them signing Lohse in the near future.