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Re: NFL

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:21 pm

That's fine. atleast SF and SEA have the option of determining if those guys are worth it. Look at it like this, there's a class of QB's that are good but require that supporting cast to look that way. Flacco, Roethlisberger, Ryan and Manning, those guys require sufficient talent around them. If you take White/Jones away from Ryan he's mediocre, we're always lamenting the supporting cast that roethlisberger has etc. Then there's guys like Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady who boost the supporting cast. Receivers can move in and out of those offenses, NE is going to be fine without hernandez and welker, haven't seen much complaining from GB about Jennings. Those guys are worth the big time money, the former are not.
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Re: NFL

Postby tifosi77 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:39 pm

I'm posting this at 11:38 am PST on Friday September 6, 2013.

Official NFL.com Stats by Player Category, showing all quarterbacks. The game's been over for like 14 hours, and they still don't have Flacco's stats up. It's almost as if only one QB played last night.

This makes me laugh.
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Re: NFL

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:42 pm

Yeah, no Ravens stats up at all.
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Re: NFL

Postby offsides on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:43 pm

FreeCandy44 wrote:
offsides wrote:
I can remember when the team came first. After a TD, a player would hand the ball to the ref and jog to the bench to celebrate with his team. Everything is "look what I did" now.

Doesn't Larry Fitzgerald just hand the ball to the ref after a touchdown or first down?


Yes he does, a real professional. I'm thinking he is the last of a dying breed.
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Re: NFL

Postby shmenguin on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:45 pm

Troy Loney wrote:That's fine. atleast SF and SEA have the option of determining if those guys are worth it. Look at it like this, there's a class of QB's that are good but require that supporting cast to look that way. Flacco, Roethlisberger, Ryan and Manning, those guys require sufficient talent around them. If you take White/Jones away from Ryan he's mediocre, we're always lamenting the supporting cast that roethlisberger has etc. Then there's guys like Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady who boost the supporting cast. Receivers can move in and out of those offenses, NE is going to be fine without hernandez and welker, haven't seen much complaining from GB about Jennings. Those guys are worth the big time money, the former are not.


in '09, roethlisberger didn't have an offensive line, so i don't think i'd lump him in with the group that requires peripheral talent.

seattle and san fransisco didn't get into their current situation out of strategy. they got lucky with a couple draft picks. the only thing they did well was to not sign a guy like carson palmer as a stop gap.
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Re: NFL

Postby Grunthy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:46 pm

Kaizer wrote:the steeler colored glasses in here are strong.



Big Ben is a good bit better than Flacco. Ben has had two season's with under a 90 QB rating, and one was after he almost died in an accident. Flacco has had 1 season above 90.
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Re: NFL

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:53 pm

shmenguin wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:That's fine. atleast SF and SEA have the option of determining if those guys are worth it. Look at it like this, there's a class of QB's that are good but require that supporting cast to look that way. Flacco, Roethlisberger, Ryan and Manning, those guys require sufficient talent around them. If you take White/Jones away from Ryan he's mediocre, we're always lamenting the supporting cast that roethlisberger has etc. Then there's guys like Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady who boost the supporting cast. Receivers can move in and out of those offenses, NE is going to be fine without hernandez and welker, haven't seen much complaining from GB about Jennings. Those guys are worth the big time money, the former are not.


in '09, roethlisberger didn't have an offensive line, so i don't think i'd lump him in with the group that requires peripheral talent.

seattle and san fransisco didn't get into their current situation out of strategy. they got lucky with a couple draft picks. the only thing they did well was to not sign a guy like carson palmer as a stop gap.


San Francisco went to the Championship game with Smith, and the marginal improvement of Kaepernick helped push them to the superbowl the next year. They were awfully close with Smith to getting to that superbowl too.

The '09 team had one of the greatest defenses in NFL history, I'd say that championship was mostly the combination of that defense and a favorable playoff schedule (SD, Baltimore, and Arizona). I think the 2011 run was the Roethlisberger/Steelers swan song. The supporting cast starting collapsing after that playoff run, but I think they would have won that game if Roethlisberger hadn't gotten hurt (it didn't hurt that they again had a favorable track out of the AFC - Ravens/Jets).
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Re: NFL

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:54 pm

Grunthy wrote:
Kaizer wrote:the steeler colored glasses in here are strong.



Big Ben is a good bit better than Flacco. Ben has had two season's with under a 90 QB rating, and one was after he almost died in an accident. Flacco has had 1 season above 90.



I'll take Roethlisberger now that that they both have inflated contracts. But i'd take Flacco at his old deal over an expensive Roethlisberger.
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Re: NFL

Postby Grunthy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:57 pm

Troy Loney wrote:
Grunthy wrote:
Kaizer wrote:the steeler colored glasses in here are strong.



Big Ben is a good bit better than Flacco. Ben has had two season's with under a 90 QB rating, and one was after he almost died in an accident. Flacco has had 1 season above 90.



I'll take Roethlisberger now that that they both have inflated contracts. But i'd take Flacco at his old deal over an expensive Roethlisberger.



Ben's contract was never that ridiculous. It is only about 12 per season if I remember. Which is pretty good for a 2 time super bowl champion.
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Re: NFL

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:58 pm

Well, they kept deferring money, so he's probably like $18M a year right now against the cap. (deferred in order to keep the supporting cast in tact)
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Re: NFL

Postby Kaizer on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:06 pm

Grunthy wrote:
Kaizer wrote:the steeler colored glasses in here are strong.



Big Ben is a good bit better than Flacco. Ben has had two season's with under a 90 QB rating, and one was after he almost died in an accident. Flacco has had 1 season above 90.


Image
and that matters this year in what way.
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Re: NFL

Postby skullman80 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:06 pm

Troy Loney wrote:
shmenguin wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:That's fine. atleast SF and SEA have the option of determining if those guys are worth it. Look at it like this, there's a class of QB's that are good but require that supporting cast to look that way. Flacco, Roethlisberger, Ryan and Manning, those guys require sufficient talent around them. If you take White/Jones away from Ryan he's mediocre, we're always lamenting the supporting cast that roethlisberger has etc. Then there's guys like Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady who boost the supporting cast. Receivers can move in and out of those offenses, NE is going to be fine without hernandez and welker, haven't seen much complaining from GB about Jennings. Those guys are worth the big time money, the former are not.


in '09, roethlisberger didn't have an offensive line, so i don't think i'd lump him in with the group that requires peripheral talent.

seattle and san fransisco didn't get into their current situation out of strategy. they got lucky with a couple draft picks. the only thing they did well was to not sign a guy like carson palmer as a stop gap.


San Francisco went to the Championship game with Smith, and the marginal improvement of Kaepernick helped push them to the superbowl the next year. They were awfully close with Smith to getting to that superbowl too.

The '09 team had one of the greatest defenses in NFL history, I'd say that championship was mostly the combination of that defense and a favorable playoff schedule (SD, Baltimore, and Arizona). I think the 2011 run was the Roethlisberger/Steelers swan song. The supporting cast starting collapsing after that playoff run, but I think they would have won that game if Roethlisberger hadn't gotten hurt (it didn't hurt that they again had a favorable track out of the AFC - Ravens/Jets).


As a 49er fan. Alex was the king of the checkdown. He had no arm to throw downfield. He got better as his career went along, but so did the talent on the team.

Kaep only has a small sample size and could obviously fail(though I doubt he will), but he makes throws that Smith couldn't make. He also is a threat to run if needed, but he has better accuracy and strength thank Alex ever did. The offense is much more opened up with Kaep behind center than it ever was with Smith.
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Re: NFL

Postby shmenguin on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:12 pm

Troy Loney wrote:San Francisco went to the Championship game with Smith, and the marginal improvement of Kaepernick helped push them to the superbowl the next year. They were awfully close with Smith to getting to that superbowl too.


maybe i'm misreading, but i interpreted what you were saying as SF and SEA being a good model for other teams to follow. but the path both teams took to get where they are was dubious. they overpaid for average-to-mediocre quarterbacks and then got lucky with 2nd and 3rd round picks (assuming both guys pan out).
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Re: NFL

Postby skullman80 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:17 pm

The Steelers did the same thing.... had Tommy Maddox.... drafted Ben.. hoped he panned out and thankfully he did. It's not like Kaep or Wilson were 7th round picks or anything.
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Re: NFL

Postby Sam's Drunk Dog on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:19 pm

Ben was the 11th pick in the draft. He was expected to be a franchise QB. Not sure you could say that about Wilson or Kaep or they would have been drafted earlier.
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Re: NFL

Postby skullman80 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:21 pm

Kaep was picked in the 2nd rd at 36, Wilson in the 3rd. Like I said neither were picked late in the draft or were undrafted free agents. I can't speak for Seattle's situation, but Kaep was being groomed as Smith's replacement sooner than later. Alex getting hurt just sped up the process significantly.
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Re: NFL

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:22 pm

Wilson slipped because he was undersized, his abilities were known, the only think they took a chance on was him being to small. It wasn't a lucky pick. I'm pretty sure people were saying that he'd be a consensus #1 if he were a normal QB height. Didn't the 49ers trade for Kaepernick's pick?
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Re: NFL

Postby Troy Loney on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:23 pm

shmenguin wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:San Francisco went to the Championship game with Smith, and the marginal improvement of Kaepernick helped push them to the superbowl the next year. They were awfully close with Smith to getting to that superbowl too.


maybe i'm misreading, but i interpreted what you were saying as SF and SEA being a good model for other teams to follow. but the path both teams took to get where they are was dubious. they overpaid for average-to-mediocre quarterbacks and then got lucky with 2nd and 3rd round picks (assuming both guys pan out).


I'd say their model was more along the lines of being bad-mediocre long enough to accrue significant talent all over the field. They're just at the front end of acquiring talent outside the QB position while not paying that inflated QB salary. Wilson or Kaepernick may turn out to be elite level QB's, but I sort of doubt it, I think Wilson has a better chance of being that than Kaepernick. They both have elite defenses and offensive line play (SEA does right?, i know SF does).

Skullman, Kaepernick has a unique skill set and the run throw combo looked great last year. But given time, coaching will take one of those elements away and I'm not sure that he has the ability to be a pure passing talent to allow him to be an elite QB like Brady/Manning/Brees etc. Time will tell, but he's probably going to be a Vick/Roethlisberger type that will always rely on physical tools and never develop the defense reading abilty that makes you an elite QB.
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Re: NFL

Postby skullman80 on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:27 pm

I think people are gonna be surprised this year when Kaep throws way more than he runs. He has a bullet of an arm, and he's pretty damn accurate too. People see those runs in the GB game last year and think all he can do is run the ball. He can drop back and put it on a rope too.

It's possible he could fall flat on his face, but I highly doubt it. I expect Wilson to pick up where he left off as well.
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Re: NFL

Postby Sam's Drunk Dog on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:28 pm

Let's say that the chances of an early round 1 pick becoming a franchise QB are 50%. Chances for a second round pick are 35% and chances for a 3rd round pick are 25%. So if a second round pick or a third round pick become franchise QBs the teams are luckier than the team that has a round one pick become a franchise QB. Of course not to the level of a 7th rounder or UDFA, but they are still more lucky. The Steelers got lucky sure, but not to the extent of Seattle or San Fran.
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Re: NFL

Postby Rocco on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:31 pm

Troy Loney wrote:
Grunthy wrote:
Kaizer wrote:the steeler colored glasses in here are strong.



Big Ben is a good bit better than Flacco. Ben has had two season's with under a 90 QB rating, and one was after he almost died in an accident. Flacco has had 1 season above 90.


Player Team Contract
Ben Roethlisberger, 2008 Steelers 8 years, $102M
Carson Palmer, 2005 Bengals 9 years, $118.75M
Michael Vick, 2004 Falcons 10 years, $130M
Daunte Culpepper, 2003 Vikings 10 years, $102M
Donovan McNabb, 2002 Eagles 12 years, $115M
Drew Bledsoe, 2001 Patriots 10 years, $103M
Brett Favre, 2001 Packers 10 years, $101M


Roethlisberger's contract when he signed it was 8 years, $102 million. At the time it was signed, here were the other QBs who had gotten over $100m:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3274467

Roethlisberger now joins Manning, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, the suspended Vick and the retired Drew Bledsoe in the $100 million quarterback club.


The Colts and Packers got their money's worth. The Eagles may not have gotten full value but they got enough that they can't really complain. The other teams on the list? Well...

The two best attributes Flacco has shown in his career are a) an ability to stay healthy despite taking hellacious hits and b) a pretty deep ball. His numbers on a cumulative and per-throw basis have generally put him in the middle of the pack for QBs. The Ravens were going to give him a huge deal at the end of the year for the same reason the Steelers had to pay BRoeth after the 2007 season and the same reason Stafford got his huge deal- if you have a QB, it's almost impossible to overpay him because it's incredibly hard to find a quality replacement without getting seriously lucky.
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Re: NFL

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:32 pm

if kaep went to a bigger school, he would have went 1st round. 1st FBS qb to ever have 10000 passing and 4000 rushing yards. he was legit
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Re: NFL

Postby Rocco on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:39 pm

Sam's Drunk Dog wrote:Let's say that the chances of an early round 1 pick becoming a franchise QB are 50%. Chances for a second round pick are 35% and chances for a 3rd round pick are 25%. So if a second round pick or a third round pick become franchise QBs the teams are luckier than the team that has a round one pick become a franchise QB. Of course not to the level of a 7th rounder or UDFA, but they are still more lucky. The Steelers got lucky sure, but not to the extent of Seattle or San Fran.


The chances of even a 2nd or 3rd round pick becoming a franchise QB are lower than that.

http://www.sbnation.com/2012-nfl-draft/ ... -positions

Image

Once you get past the first round the success rate for QBs is not good at all. Kaepernick and Wilson were both considered sleepers that had significant question marks (Kaepernick played in a tricked-out offense and was raw as a passer, Wilson was too short). Most of your QBs past the first round fit that mold to some degree- Brees fell to the top of the 2nd round because of his height. Most of the time these guys fail in the NFL for those reasons but now and then you strike gold.

Thanks to the current CBA SF is able to spend a lot this season because Kapernick can't renegotiate until after his 3rd season. Seattle has 2 more years of dirt-cheap QB play which gives them a nice window to make a run before they have to make hard decisions.
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Re: NFL

Postby Idoit40fans on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:54 pm

Sam's Drunk Dog wrote:Let's say that the chances of an early round 1 pick becoming a franchise QB are 50%. Chances for a second round pick are 35% and chances for a 3rd round pick are 25%. So if a second round pick or a third round pick become franchise QBs the teams are luckier than the team that has a round one pick become a franchise QB. Of course not to the level of a 7th rounder or UDFA, but they are still more lucky. The Steelers got lucky sure, but not to the extent of Seattle or San Fran.


A 2nd or third roudn talent sure. Players that get overlooked for a non-football reason though...the team that takes them is just smarter.
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Re: NFL

Postby Grunthy on Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:56 pm

Kaizer wrote:
Grunthy wrote:
Kaizer wrote:the steeler colored glasses in here are strong.



Big Ben is a good bit better than Flacco. Ben has had two season's with under a 90 QB rating, and one was after he almost died in an accident. Flacco has had 1 season above 90.



and that matters this year in what way.



Trends often continue...
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