2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Stoosh on Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:04 am

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:To elaborate on stoosh's (spot on and well thought out) post, the following thoughts:

Before 2013 season, if someone were to suggest that savage had a chance to get drafted, it wouldnt have been a silly notion. After watching him in the first few games-when the offense was all about the five step drop-there were throws that he made that probably 3 or 4 guys, max, in college football could make. He made a cross field pass to boyd in the FSU game (after the game was decided) that was just eye popping after watching 3 years of tino.

But at the end of the day, the guy is a stiff.

Should he get drafted? Yes. In the 2nd or 3rd round? No.


Agree.

Should have elaborated on this in my initial post more. While I think he'll certainly be drafted and agree that he deserves to be drafted, I think Savage ultimately falls into that second tier of QB draftees that are best be described as "projects". He has the physical tools that will merit interest, but in the long run he's going to require a good bit of work and coaching to be much more than lower-tier starter. He'll probably top out as a career backup or occasional spot-starter, which is obviously still a pretty good gig if you can get it.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Rylan on Fri Apr 18, 2014 4:04 pm

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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Rocco on Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:23 am

Aaron Schatz ‏@FO_ASchatz 1m
I just ran LCF for Tom Savage. Lowest score in this class. And if we don't give him credit for jr-sr year improvement, it's near zero.


Aaron Schatz runs Football Outsiders. LCF is Long-Term Career Forecaster, a model they've built for measuring the likelihood of the success of college QBs in the NFL. It's not perfect at all, though it did love Russell Wilson a ton. Here's the article explaining it (they didn't include Savage because no one in their right minds back in February thought Savage was worth picking):

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-dr ... ns-nothing
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:23 pm

Rocco wrote:
Aaron Schatz ‏@FO_ASchatz 1m
I just ran LCF for Tom Savage. Lowest score in this class. And if we don't give him credit for jr-sr year improvement, it's near zero.


Aaron Schatz runs Football Outsiders. LCF is Long-Term Career Forecaster, a model they've built for measuring the likelihood of the success of college QBs in the NFL. It's not perfect at all, though it did love Russell Wilson a ton. Here's the article explaining it (they didn't include Savage because no one in their right minds back in February thought Savage was worth picking):

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-dr ... ns-nothing

I'm seriously all for advanced stats, but this just seems insanely random / arbitrary / not really worth anything at all...

Career college games started
Career completion rate.
Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0.
For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons.
A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby ulf on Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:36 pm

That formula is ridiculous lol
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Pitt87 on Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:58 pm

IanMoran wrote:
Rocco wrote:
Aaron Schatz ‏@FO_ASchatz 1m
I just ran LCF for Tom Savage. Lowest score in this class. And if we don't give him credit for jr-sr year improvement, it's near zero.


Aaron Schatz runs Football Outsiders. LCF is Long-Term Career Forecaster, a model they've built for measuring the likelihood of the success of college QBs in the NFL. It's not perfect at all, though it did love Russell Wilson a ton. Here's the article explaining it (they didn't include Savage because no one in their right minds back in February thought Savage was worth picking):

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-dr ... ns-nothing

I'm seriously all for advanced stats, but this just seems insanely random / arbitrary / not really worth anything at all...

Career college games started
Career completion rate.
Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0.
For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons.
A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season
.


This has nothing to do with advanced stats. Zero. This is predictive modeling predicated on stats that seem unrelated to situational ability or personal performance. Virtually no insight required here, just a spreadsheet that pulls from other spreadsheets.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:02 pm

Why?

The first stat penalize players who don't play against the best college talent.
The second and third stats consider the reliance the quarterback has on his legs to gain yards and first downs.

those seem like good things to look at when considering the long term potential of a college quarterback.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Rocco on Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:04 pm

IanMoran wrote:
Rocco wrote:
Aaron Schatz ‏@FO_ASchatz 1m
I just ran LCF for Tom Savage. Lowest score in this class. And if we don't give him credit for jr-sr year improvement, it's near zero.


Aaron Schatz runs Football Outsiders. LCF is Long-Term Career Forecaster, a model they've built for measuring the likelihood of the success of college QBs in the NFL. It's not perfect at all, though it did love Russell Wilson a ton. Here's the article explaining it (they didn't include Savage because no one in their right minds back in February thought Savage was worth picking):

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-dr ... ns-nothing

I'm seriously all for advanced stats, but this just seems insanely random / arbitrary / not really worth anything at all...

Career college games started
Career completion rate.
Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0.
For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons.
A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season.


Those are the stats/measurements that have correlated in the past to successful QBs. While it seems basic enough, QBs who start a lot of college games and are extremely accurate tend to do very well in the NFL. Savage neither started a ton of games nor is very accurate.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Rocco on Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:09 pm

Troy Loney wrote:Why?

The first stat penalize players who don't play against the best college talent.
The second and third stats consider the reliance the quarterback has on his legs to gain yards and first downs.

those seem like good things to look at when considering the long term potential of a college quarterback.


The rushing yards/run-pass ratios also determine which QBs take a lot of sacks. In college sacks count against rushing yards. QBs who run a lot will get penalized while QBs that run only when necessary get a bonus.

The penalty for non-BCS players weeds out some of the guys who put up big numbers against crap opponents but have no chance of being drafted highly.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:14 pm

Rocco wrote:While it seems basic enough, QBs who start a lot of college games and are extremely accurate tend to do very well in the NFL.


With zero stats and on antecdotal evidence, kenny the kangaroo disagrees.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby ulf on Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:32 pm

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
Rocco wrote:While it seems basic enough, QBs who start a lot of college games and are extremely accurate tend to do very well in the NFL.


With zero stats and on antecdotal evidence, kenny the kangaroo disagrees.

I feel like there's plenty of "system" QBs that would have pretty high scores in this prediction.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Rocco on Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:32 pm

ulf wrote:
KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
Rocco wrote:While it seems basic enough, QBs who start a lot of college games and are extremely accurate tend to do very well in the NFL.


With zero stats and on antecdotal evidence, kenny the kangaroo disagrees.

I feel like there's plenty of "system" QBs that would have pretty high scores in this prediction.


Part of why they added things like BMI and running stats into the equation was due to players like Colt McCoy breaking the system. The increase in spread offenses and college offenses using shorter passing games inflated completion numbers. Their fix has been to penalize the crap out of people with lower than expected completion numbers because if you're not at least a 60% passer these days something is wrong. Scouting plays a big role as well, because you'd expect the people who watch lots of games to be able to tell when someone is a product of the system and knock that guy down their draft boards.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:18 pm

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports the Patriots are "incredibly high" on Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage.
Some in the New England organization are now referring to Savage as "Tom #2," with Tom Brady being "Tom #1" of course. Savage has been generating a ton of buzz in recent weeks and has even had to turn down workout requests due to a jam-packed schedule. He has a rifle for an arm but accuracy flaws. Savage may need to sit for a couple years. Ryan Mallett can be a free agent next March.
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:35 pm

yes, when kenny the kangaroo was sitting in lane stadium last fall while savage was getting bum rushed by VT, the only thought in this gentleman's mind was "hey, he is tom brady part 2"
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Re: 2013-14 Pitt Football Thread

Postby skullman80 on Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:46 pm

If Savage could get propped up behind a line in the NFL where he can just stand in the pocket and scan the field and make his throws, he might make a good backup. Any sort of pressure though.... and yeah.. not good. He also runs like he has cement in his shoes.

The guy can make NFL throws, but I just don't see the whole package there.
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