Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

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Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:36 pm

Well, back at it boys. I wanted to start a thread (dynasty rookie draft is next Tuesday), but then wondered if it was too soon. Looks like last years' was started on July 17... so this is close enough!

Let's take a look at some burning questions:

1. 1st RB you're taking?
2. How close does Peyton Manning come to replicating last season?
3. How are Desean Jackson's stats replaced in Philadelphia?
4. How will RGIII's weapons do (Jackson, Garcon, Reed)?
5. Will Andre Johnson still be a stud?
6. A qb that you'll let everyone else draft their starter and then draft him?
7. Will any rookie WR have a good fantasy year?
8. Trent Richardson.... rebound or chump?
9. Can Jordan Cameron replicate last season?
10. Which aging RB will father time catch up to?
11. Rb sleeper?
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy on Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:02 pm

1. Peterson (McCoy is a close second)
2. 93% as good
3. They won't be, Philly's production will go down
4. Washington will have a killer offense, tons of yards and points
5. No, Texans o will be in shambles
6. Cutler (or Roeth)
7. Jordan Matthews (Eagles)
8. With a healthy Wayne and TY he should rebound. Should being the operative word.
9. Of course. It's now a TE league.
10. Frank Gore, if it hasn't already
11. As a Broncos fan I'm gonna go with Montee Ball
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Kraftster on Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:26 pm

Yeah, I gotta start thinking about this stuff.

1. Charles/Peterson Peterson/Charles (not sure)
2. Very close
3. Don't know
4. Don't know but want Jordan Matthews
5. If he's traded. If not then probably not.
6. Cutler
7. Almost certainly, but I'm not sure which
8. Chump
9. Yes
10. No real great candidates here. None that matter anyway. Sjax, MJD, et al are known to be fading. I guess Gore is probably the best candidate.
11. Tate/West; Ridley as a wildcard sleeper--never know what BB will do, but if he re-establishes trust then he's way undervalued (No way Ball is a sleeper given his likely first round ADP)

I'll try to add some questions later.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy on Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:50 pm

Also my opinion is extremely important because I won my league (and $300+) and have been in the top 3 in points for in my league 2 out of the 2 years that I've bothered to play fantasy. :slug:
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Beveridge on Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:17 pm

I'm going to answer number 7. Cooks with Saints. You still have to account for Colston and Graham and he has Drew Breeeeeeeeeeeeees throwing to him.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:26 am

IanMoran wrote:
1. 1st RB you're taking?
2. How close does Peyton Manning come to replicating last season?
3. How are Desean Jackson's stats replaced in Philadelphia?
4. How will RGIII's weapons do (Jackson, Garcon, Reed)?
5. Will Andre Johnson still be a stud?
6. A qb that you'll let everyone else draft their starter and then draft him?
7. Will any rookie WR have a good fantasy year?
8. Trent Richardson.... rebound or chump?
9. Can Jordan Cameron replicate last season?
10. Which aging RB will father time catch up to?
11. Rb sleeper?

I'll answer my own questions:
1. ADP
2. Closer than people think
3. Spread out, but I think Maclin has a chance to put up some #'s
4. I think decent chance they disappoint
5. He's QB proof
6. Big Ben
7. Don't see it... pretty rare for it to happen
8. Chump
9. No
10. Gore
11. Khiry Robinson / (wouldn't draft him, but I'm keeping an eye on David Wilson)
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Kraftster on Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:35 am

I'm not there yet--just starting to get back into things in the past few days--but I'm going to be looking closely at how I think things will break down from a position scarcity/priority perspective. In dynasty leagues, I am more and more inclined to build around QB and WR because of the variability of RBs. Especially in my dynasty league that has a salary cap. Being stuck with long-term high cap contracts on RBs is going to be devastating. Just this year, I know the MJD, McFadden, Foster, Rice, and others contracts are going to severely restrict what those owners can do.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:40 am

Who are your mid round targets? (5-10)

Guys that look appealing to me in that range.

WR: D. Jackson, Crabtree, R. Wayne, M. Wallace, J. Edelman, R. Randle
RB: D. Martin, P. Thomas, R. Mathews, Ridley, B. Tate
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:55 am

Kraftster wrote:I'm not there yet--just starting to get back into things in the past few days--but I'm going to be looking closely at how I think things will break down from a position scarcity/priority perspective. In dynasty leagues, I am more and more inclined to build around QB and WR because of the variability of RBs. Especially in my dynasty league that has a salary cap. Being stuck with long-term high cap contracts on RBs is going to be devastating. Just this year, I know the MJD, McFadden, Foster, Rice, and others contracts are going to severely restrict what those owners can do.

I don't have a salary cap, but I was able to get Vjax for basically nothing this off-season. Seems like an amazing stop-gap to Hopkins for me
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:03 pm

Troy Loney wrote:Who are your mid round targets? (5-10)

Guys that look appealing to me in that range.

WR: D. Jackson, Crabtree, R. Wayne, M. Wallace, J. Edelman, R. Randle
RB: D. Martin, P. Thomas, R. Mathews, Ridley, B. Tate

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Djax / Tate go before then. I think D. Martin will still go borderline 1st round as well...

I think Toby Gerhart can overachieve his likely ADP, Ridley intrigues me, I like Torrey Smith as well (reminds me of AB, kind of undervalued just because didn't get TD's which is impossible to predict)
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:03 pm

IanMoran wrote:
IanMoran wrote:7. Will any rookie WR have a good fantasy year?

I'll answer my own questions:
7. Don't see it... pretty rare for it to happen


??

keenan allen, cordarrelle patterson, aj green 2 years ago, mike williams 3 years ago, etc etc

theres usually at least one rookie in the top 15
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Kraftster on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:03 pm

I will likely have the 1st overall pick, so it is important to me to figure out whether I want to build with a not-top-talent RB in a good situation (Sankey) or a potential franchise WR (Watkins, perhaps Evans). I will likely have Martin, Bernard, Tate, and possibly Ridley if I elect to re-sign him, so lots of question marks there and Sankey makes me feel safer for next year, but I do think he's appreciably less talented than the top WR options. If I go WR, I'd be built long-term around Crabtree, Floyd, Watkins/Evans, Terr. Williams.

The other variable is, I will also pick 4th and 6th and there are quite a few WRs that are appealing vs. only one RB. I could probably go Sankey, Cooks, and then grab another WR, or Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel or Ebron. On the other hand, if I go Watkins, I probably end up taking another WR at #4 and I already have a bunch (have Wheaton, Stills, Boykin in the mix on my team as well not mentioned above).
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Kraftster on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:05 pm

Letang Is The Truth wrote:
IanMoran wrote:
IanMoran wrote:7. Will any rookie WR have a good fantasy year?

I'll answer my own questions:
7. Don't see it... pretty rare for it to happen


??

keenan allen, cordarrelle patterson, aj green 2 years ago, mike williams 3 years ago, etc etc

theres usually at least one rookie in the top 15


Yeah, I would be very surprised if there's not a big-time rookie WR. Evans, Cooks, Benjamin, Matthews, Beckham. Even Adams, Lee, Robinson. Someone has to pop.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:09 pm

Letang Is The Truth wrote:
IanMoran wrote:
IanMoran wrote:7. Will any rookie WR have a good fantasy year?

I'll answer my own questions:
7. Don't see it... pretty rare for it to happen


??

keenan allen, cordarrelle patterson, aj green 2 years ago, mike williams 3 years ago, etc etc

theres usually at least one rookie in the top 15

C-pat had 469 yards last year... Green barely cracked 1,000... Williams didn't crack 1,000 but got lucky on TD's (impossible to predict / looks like luck based on rest of career). I just think rookie wr's are consistently overhyped from a fantasy perspective

Seems like 1 guy usually gets around 1,000 and its hard to predict who. 24 wr's did that last year
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:10 pm

Kraftster wrote:
Letang Is The Truth wrote:
IanMoran wrote:
IanMoran wrote:7. Will any rookie WR have a good fantasy year?

I'll answer my own questions:
7. Don't see it... pretty rare for it to happen


??

keenan allen, cordarrelle patterson, aj green 2 years ago, mike williams 3 years ago, etc etc

theres usually at least one rookie in the top 15


Yeah, I would be very surprised if there's not a big-time rookie WR. Evans, Cooks, Benjamin, Matthews, Beckham. Even Adams, Lee, Robinson. Someone has to pop.

Possibly, just from a risk / reward analysis though I stay clear of rookie WR's for the most part in redraft
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:10 pm

you are answering a different question then. based on history, there will be a rookie WR that has a good year; who the will be is the real question.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:12 pm

Kraftster wrote:I will likely have the 1st overall pick, so it is important to me to figure out whether I want to build with a not-top-talent RB in a good situation (Sankey) or a potential franchise WR (Watkins, perhaps Evans). I will likely have Martin, Bernard, Tate, and possibly Ridley if I elect to re-sign him, so lots of question marks there and Sankey makes me feel safer for next year, but I do think he's appreciably less talented than the top WR options. If I go WR, I'd be built long-term around Crabtree, Floyd, Watkins/Evans, Terr. Williams.

The other variable is, I will also pick 4th and 6th and there are quite a few WRs that are appealing vs. only one RB. I could probably go Sankey, Cooks, and then grab another WR, or Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel or Ebron. On the other hand, if I go Watkins, I probably end up taking another WR at #4 and I already have a bunch (have Wheaton, Stills, Boykin in the mix on my team as well not mentioned above).

I just think WR's (in my opinion Watkins) just has soooooo much more talent than Sankey I'd have to go with him. If you need a RB next year, I'd imagine you could get a better 1 than Sankey by trading the 1st for someone in love with 1 of the big 2.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:16 pm

do the sankey leg
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:35 pm

Letang Is The Truth wrote:you are answering a different question then. based on history, there will be a rookie WR that has a good year; who the will be is the real question.

Yea, I guess… too much time on my hands, looked up top WR’s each year last 10 seasons and fantasy positional ranking

Allen 17
Hilton 24
Green 14
Williams 11
Harvin 25
Royal 19
Bowe 24
Colston 14
Henry 51

So based on history, they'll be a WR2 / Flex in the group
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Kraftster on Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:15 pm

Interesting. Not as impressive as I would have expected.
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:17 am

so based on that, the average is 18.5 in terms of ranking among WR. based on usual ADP, the 18th to 19th WR is taken between picks 45 and 50. usually someone in the top 50 picks is going to have a significant impact on your team
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby IanMoran on Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:59 am

Letang Is The Truth wrote:so based on that, the average is 18.5 in terms of ranking among WR. based on usual ADP, the 18th to 19th WR is taken between picks 45 and 50. usually someone in the top 50 picks is going to have a significant impact on your team

Yea, based on the above.. If ppr, 9 out of 10 seasons a rookie wr should be starting in typical season. In standard leagues, 6 out of 10 years. So I guess it depends on format some on if it's a shoe-in or close to conflict

Also, incoming wr class is deepest I can remember from a talent perspective. So I'll change my answer on that one
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:06 am

it really depends on how you view the player. if you draft them as high end WR2, you are going to be in trouble. however, if you can work them in as WR3, you will be set and likely end up making out on it
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Troy Loney on Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:11 am

I think Sankey is the way to go. RB is as much about circumstance as talent, a 2nd round RB taken and given the job has a much higher probability of success than a first round receiver. Last year with Bell, Lacey and Ball turning into high value players within a year. Although Watkins and Evans look more like AJ Green and Julio Jones than Cordarelle Patterson and Darious Heyward Bey. Is it a certainty that Sankey-Watkins-Evans go 1,2,3?
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Re: Official 2014 Fantasy Football Thread

Postby Letang Is The Truth on Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:14 am

i would say nothing is certain until training camps break and the hype trains start rolling
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