Art Ross Trophy 11/12

[steelhammer]

Everyone ahead of Sedin right now is very unproven. Over Sid's last 82 games, he has scored 131 points (according to Versus last night), which equates to around 1.59 ppg. That pace would net him 95 points this season. Right now, Sedin, who I consider the favorite, is on pace for 97 points. Definitely possible for Sid to win it.

That's combining the variations of facts in order to support your hope as much as possible =)

I'd pee my pants of joy if he pulls it off, but I'm not calling it realistic unless Sid has about 20 points after 10 games.

He had a 25 game stretch of 26+24 last year...

Yeah, and that pace through 25 games is so very much less than that pace through 61 games. Hate being the debbie downer, just saying it'll be harder than some fans seem to think.

Looking at the numbers more closely, however, shows a measly 1.65 PPG is enough for him to get 104 points. Sure, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Andre,

You're also discounting the fact that Sid has not even hit his statistical prime (~25-26 years of age for most players) yet. Anything he has done already is very likely to be only a taste of what he is capable of doing. He has already hit 1.61 points/game in a season. 1.8+ is not unreasonable at all, especially since he has had time for his chronic groin strain issues to heal up and now has employed a level of cognitive/coordination training that he has never done before. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he got close to 2 points per game. I know how insanely optimistic that sounds, but he is one of the very best players to ever play the game and he keeps getting better at everything he does so almost nothing would surprise me.

[Pavel Bure]

Andre,

You're also discounting the fact that Sid has not even hit his statistical prime (~25-26 years of age for most players) yet. Anything he has done already is very likely to be only a taste of what he is capable of doing. He has already hit 1.61 points/game in a season. 1.8+ is not unreasonable at all, especially since he has had time for his chronic groin strain issues to heal up and now has employed a level of cognitive/coordination training that he has never done before. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he got close to 2 points per game. I know how insanely optimistic that sounds, but he is one of the very best players to ever play the game and he keeps getting better at everything he does so almost nothing would surprise me.

Actually players like Sid, Mario, Gretzky, etc. hit their statistical high points in their early 20's usually ages 20-22. There was an article about it on ESPN a couple years ago.

[steelhammer]

Andre,

You're also discounting the fact that Sid has not even hit his statistical prime (~25-26 years of age for most players) yet. Anything he has done already is very likely to be only a taste of what he is capable of doing. He has already hit 1.61 points/game in a season. 1.8+ is not unreasonable at all, especially since he has had time for his chronic groin strain issues to heal up and now has employed a level of cognitive/coordination training that he has never done before. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he got close to 2 points per game. I know how insanely optimistic that sounds, but he is one of the very best players to ever play the game and he keeps getting better at everything he does so almost nothing would surprise me.

Actually players like Sid, Mario, Gretzky, etc. hit their statistical high points in their early 20's usually ages 20-22. There was an article about it on ESPN a couple years ago.

Lemieux's best season was 92/93 when he averaged 2.67 points per game and 1.15 goals/game over 60 games while he was being treated for cancer. He was 27 years old.

Gretzky's was a little earlier, but there are way way more players that peak in their mid or even late 20's than there are players who peak in their early 20's. Some more examples:

Bossy - 25
Dionne - 28
Stastny - 25
Jagr - 23 (although one could easily argue that his 05-06 campaign at 33 was more impressive)
Forsberg -29
Nilsson - 24
Esposito - 28
LaFleur - 26
Sakic - 26
LaFontaine - 28

[Pavel Bure]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/s ... id=3931322

Hey Bucci,

What do you think will be the peak seasons (in terms of G-A-P) for Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin? They are all very young and still four to five years from their physical and mental primes, so it would seem the sky is the limit for these three, based on what we've seen from them so early in their careers.
Nick Lamb
Irvine, Calif.

As we have mentioned before, hockey is a young man's game. Wayne Gretzky scored 92 goals when he was 21. He was 23 when he had his most astounding season -- 87-118-205 in 74 games. Had he played all 80 games that season, we can assume a line of 93-130-223. The last of Gretzky's peak seasons came when he was 30 years old.

Mario Lemieux had his 85-114-199 season at age 23. At 27, Lemieux averaged 2.67 points per game in 60 games, compiling a line of 69-91-160. He had his last peak season at age 31, although his arc is harder to define because of his health.

Bobby Orr's peak years were from ages 22 to 27 before his knees gave out. He probably would have been dominant for four more seasons and really good for another five after that. His career high in assists came when he was 23. He was also a plus-124! Some Gallery God definitely won his fantasy pool that season.

Maurice Richard had his 50 goals in 50 games campaign when he was 23, during the 1944-45 season. Steve Yzerman's best season was 1988-89, when he had a line of 65-90-165. He was 23.

So, as you can see, age 23 was arguably Gretzky's best statistical year, Lemieux's most prolific season, Orr's best assist year, The Rocket's iconic season and Stevie Y's best season.

Ovechkin is 23, so we can assume his peak came last season or will come this season or next. He is on pace to finish slightly worse than his line of last season, 65-47-112. A torrid finish could help him surpass that by a little. Perhaps, if he stays red-hot, he could score 70 goals next season. History tells us this will be about his best. The way he plays, you have to think injury is inevitable and that his peak performance will last about five more years. Anything more is probably a bonus.

So far, Crosby's best season came when he was 19. His points per game have decreased each of the past two seasons, although he was injured last season and the Penguins have been a bit of a mess in 2008-09. He also is shooting less. His shots per game have decreased from 3.43 in his rookie season to 3.00 this season. He is 21, so his monster season could be coming. If he shoots more and gets good linemates, I imagine his peak in the next couple of years could read 45-101-146, although 38-94-132 might be more realistic given the parity, the continued evolution of better skaters and a net size that hasn't changed.

Malkin is 22 and, as we mentioned above, keeps getting better. Last season at age 21, his line was 47-59-106. This season, he is on pace for a line of 37-80-117. Unlike Crosby, Malkin is shooting more AND getting more assists. So, one could envision Malkin getting a line such as 54-90-144 in the next couple of years. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 61-101-162 season, but that would be if everything were to go right.

So, looking at the numbers and ages of the three players, I think Malkin has the biggest upside in terms of a monster statistical season. Appreciate these three now while you can. You are seeing just about the best they have to offer, and it will be gone before you know it. With their physical style of play and the quickening of the NHL's pace, I also worry that their peaks could be shorter, more along the lines of an NFL player's.

Sorry 23 was the statistical peaks of players. PWND.

[steelhammer]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?columnist=buccigross_john&id=3931322

Hey Bucci,

What do you think will be the peak seasons (in terms of G-A-P) for Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin? They are all very young and still four to five years from their physical and mental primes, so it would seem the sky is the limit for these three, based on what we've seen from them so early in their careers.
Nick Lamb
Irvine, Calif.

As we have mentioned before, hockey is a young man's game. Wayne Gretzky scored 92 goals when he was 21. He was 23 when he had his most astounding season -- 87-118-205 in 74 games. Had he played all 80 games that season, we can assume a line of 93-130-223. The last of Gretzky's peak seasons came when he was 30 years old.

Mario Lemieux had his 85-114-199 season at age 23. At 27, Lemieux averaged 2.67 points per game in 60 games, compiling a line of 69-91-160. He had his last peak season at age 31, although his arc is harder to define because of his health.

Bobby Orr's peak years were from ages 22 to 27 before his knees gave out. He probably would have been dominant for four more seasons and really good for another five after that. His career high in assists came when he was 23. He was also a plus-124! Some Gallery God definitely won his fantasy pool that season.

Maurice Richard had his 50 goals in 50 games campaign when he was 23, during the 1944-45 season. Steve Yzerman's best season was 1988-89, when he had a line of 65-90-165. He was 23.

So, as you can see, age 23 was arguably Gretzky's best statistical year, Lemieux's most prolific season, Orr's best assist year, The Rocket's iconic season and Stevie Y's best season.

Ovechkin is 23, so we can assume his peak came last season or will come this season or next. He is on pace to finish slightly worse than his line of last season, 65-47-112. A torrid finish could help him surpass that by a little. Perhaps, if he stays red-hot, he could score 70 goals next season. History tells us this will be about his best. The way he plays, you have to think injury is inevitable and that his peak performance will last about five more years. Anything more is probably a bonus.

So far, Crosby's best season came when he was 19. His points per game have decreased each of the past two seasons, although he was injured last season and the Penguins have been a bit of a mess in 2008-09. He also is shooting less. His shots per game have decreased from 3.43 in his rookie season to 3.00 this season. He is 21, so his monster season could be coming. If he shoots more and gets good linemates, I imagine his peak in the next couple of years could read 45-101-146, although 38-94-132 might be more realistic given the parity, the continued evolution of better skaters and a net size that hasn't changed.

Malkin is 22 and, as we mentioned above, keeps getting better. Last season at age 21, his line was 47-59-106. This season, he is on pace for a line of 37-80-117. Unlike Crosby, Malkin is shooting more AND getting more assists. So, one could envision Malkin getting a line such as 54-90-144 in the next couple of years. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 61-101-162 season, but that would be if everything were to go right.

So, looking at the numbers and ages of the three players, I think Malkin has the biggest upside in terms of a monster statistical season. Appreciate these three now while you can. You are seeing just about the best they have to offer, and it will be gone before you know it. With their physical style of play and the quickening of the NHL's pace, I also worry that their peaks could be shorter, more along the lines of an NFL player's.

Sorry 23 was the statistical peaks of players. PWND.

It was only the statistical peak of a few players. The article even admits that Lemieux's top statistical season was at 27, but somehow his most 'prolific' season was at 23? Okay. Orr is a defenseman and Richard played in the 40's for crying out loud (not to mention ranked 63rd in terms of points per game all-time). That article is a bad example of cherry-picking whereas I simply went down the list of top point-per-game players of all-time and posted their best season. Here are some more players that you won't consider.

Pavel Bure (the real one) - 27
Savard - 26
Bret Hull - 26
Bobby Hull - 27
Federko - 27
Messier - 29
Oates - 28
Francis - 32
Joe Thornton - 26
Bobby Clarke -26
Kevin Stevens - 27

[TheHammer24]

The statistical peak is generally a players 4th year. Regardless of age.

[André]

Pavel Bure (the real one) - 27
Savard - 26
Bret Hull - 26
Bobby Hull - 27
Federko - 27
Messier - 29
Oates - 28
Francis - 32
Joe Thornton - 26
Bobby Clarke -26
Kevin Stevens - 27
Bossy - 25
Dionne - 28
Stastny - 25
Jagr - 23 (although one could easily argue that his 05-06 campaign at 33 was more impressive)
Forsberg -29
Nilsson - 24
Esposito - 28
LaFleur - 26
Sakic - 26
LaFontaine - 28

So this is the age of these players the season they had their highest PPG? Interesting. Good post! Forsberg and Jagr (like you mention) did have some late seasons too that were especially impressive given the league's GPG those seasons, so I guess several offensive greats have kept their primes going well into their 30's.

I guess Sid's insane determination (obsession really) to improve makes him even more likely to keep bumping his stats. I'm with you on your reasoning, and have settled on calling him winning the Art Ross this season within the realm of possibility =)

Still it's very optimistic to think he'll pull it off, and I'm sure some of that optimism springs from the absolute delight and hype of him finally being back. Kind of like during his streak last season where it was all we talked about. I'm willing to bet a lot of people don't even know Malkin has had a similar streak (yes off topic and I've been there before and then called a Malkinite but how similar things get varying attention depending on who's involved is always interesting).

[steelhammer]

Pavel Bure (the real one) - 27
Savard - 26
Bret Hull - 26
Bobby Hull - 27
Federko - 27
Messier - 29
Oates - 28
Francis - 32
Joe Thornton - 26
Bobby Clarke -26
Kevin Stevens - 27
Bossy - 25
Dionne - 28
Stastny - 25
Jagr - 23 (although one could easily argue that his 05-06 campaign at 33 was more impressive)
Forsberg -29
Nilsson - 24
Esposito - 28
LaFleur - 26
Sakic - 26
LaFontaine - 28

So this is the age of these players the season they had their highest PPG? Interesting. Good post! Forsberg and Jagr (like you mention) did have some late seasons too that were especially impressive given the league's GPG those seasons, so I guess several offensive greats have kept their primes going well into their 30's.

I guess Sid's insane determination (obsession really) to improve makes him even more likely to keep bumping his stats. I'm with you on your reasoning, and have settled on calling him winning the Art Ross this season within the realm of possibility =)

Still it's very optimistic to think he'll pull it off, and I'm sure some of that optimism springs from the absolute delight and hype of him finally being back. Kind of like during his streak last season where it was all we talked about. I'm willing to bet a lot of people don't even know Malkin has had a similar streak (yes off topic and I've been there before and then called a Malkinite but how similar things get varying attention depending on who's involved is always interesting).

Glad you could appreciate it and perhaps be more open to the possibility of Sid continuing to evolve. One factor that we have not addressed too much is to what degree he can be helped out by being on an improved offensive team. Looking throughout his career, Sid has factored into the teams overall goals at the following rates:

[year] [pts/goals (per game)] [pct]
05-06 1.26/2.96 42.6%
06-07 1.52/3.26 46.6%
07-08 1.36/2.93 46.4% (note: didn't separate non-Sid games)
08-09 1.34/3.15 42.5%
09-10 1.35/3.04 44.4%
10-11 1.61/3.24 49.7% (note: pens had 3.24 goals per game w/Sid & 2.32 w/out)

As you can see, Sid is a HUGE part of our offense. Much more so than Ovechkin. What Sid hasn't had the benefit of is a huge year offensively from the rest of the team, such as Ovechkin had when the Caps scored 3.82 goals/game in 09-10. Without Sid this season the Pens have scored 2.85 goals per game with a rather so-so powerplay and kind of poor 5 on 5 play.

How much can they score WITH Sid in the lineup? I estimated the team to be capable of scoring between 3.40 and 3.67 goals per game this season based on 2-season averages (http://www.letsgopens.com/scripts/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=55643) taking into account injuries and such. If they hit 3.67 goals per game and Sid accounts for 49.7% of the goals like he did last season, that would be 1.82 points per game for him. It's possible Sid could account for even more of the scoring though assuming he progresses from last season, but there is certainly more room for the rest of the team to score as well in which he would benefit immensely.

[André]

That's another interesting take on it.

I'll even up those numbers. Last time I checked (about a week ago) the Flyers were at 3.75 GPG. Can see the Pens getting there as well. If Sid figures in on 49.7% of those 3.75*60 goals he'll end up with another 112 points which means 116 in total.

Then again, now that Geno is more of himself again and winged by Sullivan and Neal I suspect those 49.7% percent will go down (I hope they do because then the Pens are better off).

[André]

Geno looking like a better bet already. 8 points in one week.

[TheHammer24]

I really think Sid is going to win it. I really, really do. Beyond my 82-game averages that predict he'll win it (if that's the best measure), he's now only <20 points back of Sedin, who I think is the only real bet out of those in the top ten. I think he'll outpace him.

[André]

I really think Sid is going to win it. I really, really do. Beyond my 82-game averages that predict he'll win it (if that's the best measure), he's now only <20 points back of Sedin, who I think is the only real bet out of those in the top ten. I think he'll outpace him.

I think Backstrom, Giroux, and Kessel (who's actually not slowing down yet) could end up with as many points as the Sedins. This bunch plus possibly Stamkos really is the only legit competition in my opinion. I think Geno will win it with Sid finishing with about 5-10 points less than him.

[Desiato]

I think Backstrom, Giroux, and Kessel (who's actually not slowing down yet) could end up with as many points as the Sedins. This bunch plus possibly Stamkos really is the only legit competition in my opinion. I think Geno will win it with Sid finishing with about 5-10 points less than him.

Kessel's production is slowing. But so is most of the league.

First 14 games: 10G, 11A, 21P, 1.5 PPG
Last 10 games: 6G, 4A, 10P, 1PPG

I think the favorite right now is Malkin, but it's really wide-open.

[TheHammer24]

I really think Sid is going to win it. I really, really do. Beyond my 82-game averages that predict he'll win it (if that's the best measure), he's now only <20 points back of Sedin, who I think is the only real bet out of those in the top ten. I think he'll outpace him.

I think Backstrom, Giroux, and Kessel (who's actually not slowing down yet) could end up with as many points as the Sedins. This bunch plus possibly Stamkos really is the only legit competition in my opinion. I think Geno will win it with Sid finishing with about 5-10 points less than him.

There's no way Geno stays healthy, IMO.

[André]

Geno now tied with Giroux in PPG (1.39) and 3 points behind 1st place despite having played 6 games fewer. His 0.58 GPG is very encouraging.

[relantel]

Geno now tied with Giroux in PPG (1.39) and 3 points behind 1st place despite having played 6 games fewer. His 0.58 GPG is very encouraging.

If he can keep it up... could take lead and create a small buffer that might cover [a handful of] future games missed.

[André]

Sure looks like Geno vs Giroux at the moment. Giroux's PPG is at 1.48 now! (Geno at 1.44.)

[Wrangler98]

Giroux will have three games on Geno if they don't get hurt this year. Geno can catch him.

[MikeEnIke]

Sure looks like Geno vs Giroux at the moment. Giroux's PPG is at 1.48 now! (Geno at 1.44.)

As a Flyer's fan I'll take this show down. Should be a hell of a battle.

[André]

So our boy's doing pretty well for himself. 6 points ahead of the pack while having played 7 or 8 games less than most of them.

[relantel]

Geno's PPG only less than Crosby this season... 1.41 to 1.50

[André]

Geno's crazy weekend gives him the scoring lead with a 6 point margin.

The PPG list is a sweet sight for Pens fans:

Crosby: 1.50
Malkin: 1.41
Giroux: 1.19
Stamkos: 1.11
Backstrom: 1.11
Kovalchuk: 1.10

[Kovy27]

Look out for:

[newarenanow]

Spezza is coming on strong. But the Pens have 3 games in hand vs the Sens, so hopefully Geno creates some more space.

I just hope Geno can hold this off and win the Art Ross.

[Pitts]

Gyro and Stammer both with big nights tonight. Gyro only 2 points back all the sudden. Stammer, 3.