Flyers offer sheet Weber

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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:51 am

Kraftster wrote:Why would Nashville not match this? The upfront cash cannot really be an issue or, as has been said, they should just fold.


I doubt very much a team like Nashville, with the revenues they have and the newer ownership group they have, would have $13 million laying around in an account in July. I'm pretty certain there would need to be some re-financing or re-capitalization to pull that off.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:52 am

newarenanow wrote:I wish I was good at sports.


I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat and a '64 Impala.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Pitt87 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:14 pm

Idoit40fans wrote:
Pitt87 wrote:
shmenguin wrote:
AlexPKeaton wrote:A 14 year deal sounds like it should be invalidated by Betman honestly.


Its basically the same as Sid's deal, no?

At first glance, it seems like Nashville should just pack up their stuff and leave the league if they don't match this.


I remember reading somewhere (twitter maybe so FWIW...) that Poile would match any offer for Weber. Sounds like a gambit by GMPH to force someone's hand. They should make him eat this and have virtually no good picks to support their system.


Losing a couple firsts, a second and third would be worth it. Is that value high enough for 4 firsts? Either way, it would be worth it for sure.


Four firsts mortgages four seasons of prospects at a minimum to win now. Signing the best player possible has not worked for the last 5 years, so not sure you can say with any certainty this makes them a better team for the life of the deal.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:14 pm

They'd have to pay Weber $27 million over the one year they can't trade his rights.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:16 pm

Pitt87 wrote:
Four firsts mortgages four seasons of prospects at a minimum to win now. Signing the best player possible has not worked for the last 5 years, so not sure you can say with any certainty this makes them a better team for the life of the deal.



Picks are merely assets though. If the Flyers really wanted a player in the first round during the next four drafts, they can trade for a pick.

Conversely, Nashville isn't going to want 4 first rounders spaced out over the next four years, they need assets that can help them now and in the immediate future. Perhaps they can use the first two years' picks to pick up some talent, but no one is going to trade anything of value for first round picks 3-4 years from now.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby llipgh2 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:17 pm

Polie responds:

http://predators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=638229&navid=DL|NSH|home

Pretty wishy washy. "We might match it, but don't be surprised if we don't".
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:21 pm

pfim wrote:They'd have to pay Weber $27 million over the one year they can't trade his rights.


25% of the value of the contract will be paid out in the first year of a 14 year deal. That's crazy.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby brwi on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:25 pm

Hmmm...wonder who Nashville would target on the Flyers if they do in fact make a trade? Flyers have young talent at center, but Preds already have Legwand, Fisher and Gaustad under contract there. There are some old Nashville players in Hartnell, Timmo and Coburn. Have to believe a dman would be included and not an old man like Timmo. Either Mez or Coburn.

If I'm Poile, I'd ask for Simmonds, Voracek and Coburn.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Pitts on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:27 pm

brwi wrote:Hmmm...wonder who Nashville would target on the Flyers if they do in fact make a trade? Flyers have young talent at center, but Preds already have Legwand, Fisher and Gaustad under contract there. There are some old Nashville players in Hartnell, Timmo and Coburn. Have to believe a dman would be included and not an old man like Timmo. Either Mez or Coburn.

If I'm Poile, I'd ask for Simmonds, Voracek and Coburn.

I'd start with both Schenn brothers.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Kraftster on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:27 pm

pfim wrote:
Kraftster wrote:Why would Nashville not match this? The upfront cash cannot really be an issue or, as has been said, they should just fold.


I doubt very much a team like Nashville, with the revenues they have and the newer ownership group they have, would have $13 million laying around in an account in July. I'm pretty certain there would need to be some re-financing or re-capitalization to pull that off.


pfim wrote:
pfim wrote:They'd have to pay Weber $27 million over the one year they can't trade his rights.


25% of the value of the contract will be paid out in the first year of a 14 year deal. That's crazy.


Given your second comment, I wouldn't think that it would be something that would be prohibitive for Nashville since they will be "saving" money over so many years of the deal, even if it requires some maneuvering on their part to make it work right now.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:36 pm

Not sure I understand your logic. If anything, Nashville would want to defer as much salary as possible. What's more costly to Nashville? Paying an even $7.85 million over the next 14 years, or paying $27 million in the first, and $6.4 over the final 13? That's not the structure of the contract, but the point is that the up front money costs them more.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:40 pm

pfim wrote:Not sure I understand your logic. If anything, Nashville would want to defer as much salary as possible. What's more costly to Nashville? Paying an even $7.85 million over the next 14 years, or paying $27 million in the first, and $6.4 over the final 13? That's not the structure of the contract, but the point is that the up front money costs them more.


Plus, they don't have $27 million, and it prevents them from doing much else with the roster.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby MRandall25 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:46 pm

pfim wrote:
pfim wrote:Not sure I understand your logic. If anything, Nashville would want to defer as much salary as possible. What's more costly to Nashville? Paying an even $7.85 million over the next 14 years, or paying $27 million in the first, and $6.4 over the final 13? That's not the structure of the contract, but the point is that the up front money costs them more.


Plus, they don't have $27 million, and it prevents them from doing much else with the roster.


But think of it this way:

If they do lose Shea Weber for picks, how much revenue will be lost when they miss the playoffs for the next 10 years?
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby DelPen on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:48 pm

Pitts wrote:
brwi wrote:Hmmm...wonder who Nashville would target on the Flyers if they do in fact make a trade? Flyers have young talent at center, but Preds already have Legwand, Fisher and Gaustad under contract there. There are some old Nashville players in Hartnell, Timmo and Coburn. Have to believe a dman would be included and not an old man like Timmo. Either Mez or Coburn.

If I'm Poile, I'd ask for Simmonds, Voracek and Coburn.

I'd start with both Schenn brothers.


And Holmgren will hang up on you.

Those picks aren't worth much to Flyers.

In fact, they only used their own pick twice since drafting JVR #2 in 2007. They traded away their first rounders in 2009, 2010 and 2011 and then also traded 2008 1st rounder Sbisa.

Actually, it can be argued they gave up more for Pronger in Lupul, Sbisa, 2 1st rounders and a 3rd. And Weber right now is a lot better than Pronger was three years ago.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:51 pm

Nashville's leverage in a trade is matching Weber's deal, not the 4 picks.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Pitt87 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:54 pm

llipgh2 wrote:Polie responds:

http://predators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=638229&navid=DL|NSH|home

Pretty wishy washy. "We might match it, but don't be surprised if we don't".


Not what I took away. More like "Shea may not be worth more than 4 years worth of high picks in deep drafts. We may want to call Paul's bluff."
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby jprolley on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:54 pm

pfim wrote:
newarenanow wrote:I wish I was good at sports.


I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat and a '64 Impala.

i wish i was a little bit taller. i wish i was a baller.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby shmenguin on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:54 pm

DelPen wrote:And Weber right now is a lot better than Pronger was three years ago.


maybe weber's "better", but pronger was more valuable 3 years ago than weber would be this year
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Kraftster on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:58 pm

Well, I didn't realize that it was $13M for 4 seasons. That's a little nuts and sort of changes what I was thinking.

But, I was looking at it like this. The Preds paid Weber $7.5M last year. They are basically paying him an additional $6.5M per year but having to do that all at once. If your're going to pay him $7.5 over 12 months, I have to believe that its not that difficult for the team to arrange to finance that $7.5M payment such that it can be paid all at once. So that leaves them as really only having to get an additional $5.5M per year to be paid as a lump. I was thinking they were only having to do that for 2 years, and my thinking was that the money they would save in the future seasons should allow them to again finance the upfront payment fairly easily. To have to do it for 4 years obviously makes that tougher. Still, I would think that the ownership group should be able to swing that.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Kraftster on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:59 pm

Pitt87 wrote:
llipgh2 wrote:Polie responds:

http://predators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=638229&navid=DL|NSH|home

Pretty wishy washy. "We might match it, but don't be surprised if we don't".


Not what I took away. More like "Shea may not be worth more than 4 years worth of high picks in deep drafts. We may want to call Paul's bluff."


Yeah, I am glad I clicked the link because I thought that was a direct quote and its not how I read it at all.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby Kraftster on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:59 pm

shmenguin wrote:
DelPen wrote:And Weber right now is a lot better than Pronger was three years ago.


maybe weber's "better", but pronger was more valuable 3 years ago than weber would be this year


Definitely.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby topshelf on Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:59 pm

For someone who isn't too knowledgeable about contract stuff:

Why was Kovalchuk's initial deal rejected by the NHL, and deals like this are allowed?
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:04 pm

Kraftster wrote:Well, I didn't realize that it was $13M for 4 seasons. That's a little nuts and sort of changes what I was thinking.

But, I was looking at it like this. The Preds paid Weber $7.5M last year. They are basically paying him an additional $6.5M per year but having to do that all at once. If your're going to pay him $7.5 over 12 months, I have to believe that its not that difficult for the team to arrange to finance that $7.5M payment such that it can be paid all at once. So that leaves them as really only having to get an additional $5.5M per year to be paid as a lump. I was thinking they were only having to do that for 2 years, and my thinking was that the money they would save in the future seasons should allow them to again finance the upfront payment fairly easily. To have to do it for 4 years obviously makes that tougher. Still, I would think that the ownership group should be able to swing that.


They would also still need to acquire more salary to get over the cap floor as well. They're basically paying for two superstars, and only getting one, while still needing to add salary.

The team was insolvent under Leipold and had to solicit the two Pens' grifters (Del Biago and Ballsillie) to effect a sale. I don't share your optimism regarding their finances.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby jprolley on Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:04 pm

topshelf wrote:For someone who isn't too knowledgeable about contract stuff:

Why was Kovalchuk's initial deal rejected by the NHL, and deals like this are allowed?

apparently they draw the line at 17 years.
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Re: Flyers offer sheet Weber

Postby pfim on Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:07 pm

Guys, there's a reason why you don't see draft picks traded more than a year or two out. There's time value you lose when giving up assets playing for you now for future draft picks. I don't think he'd be worth 4 first rounders in next year's draft, but might be worth 4 first rounders over four years.
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