Other NHL games

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Re: Other NHL games

Postby mikey287 on Fri May 10, 2013 11:42 pm

We really still think save percentage isn't a team stat at this point with modern defending...? Yeesh...

Brodeur sucks, Rask is the greatest goaltender in history and Ottawa has three of the eight best goalies in hockey...I'm sold.

It's such a beautiful game...
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby slappybrown on Fri May 10, 2013 11:44 pm

mikey287 wrote:We really still think save percentage isn't a team stat at this point with modern defending...? Yeesh...

Brodeur sucks, Rask is the greatest goaltender in history and Ottawa has three of the eight best goalies in hockey...I'm sold.

It's such a beautiful game...

:lol:

So, shot quality again?
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby Godric on Fri May 10, 2013 11:44 pm

mikey287 wrote:
Godric wrote:Disagree completely on his athleticism and reflexes, but it doesn't surprise me because yet again I find myself disagreeing with your evaluation of a goaltender.

:slug:

Spoiler:
tim thomas


This makes me feel a lot better about my evaluation then...

Spoiler:
zing. :slug:


lol

*shrug*

I think scouting goaltenders is probably a even bigger crapshoot as oppose to scouting skaters. Its why I disagree with using 1st round picks on prospects like Markstrom and M. Subban. I honestly and sincerely don't know jack about conducting hockey operations though so whatever :slug:
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby Rylan on Fri May 10, 2013 11:45 pm

lol Elliot.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby bhaw on Fri May 10, 2013 11:46 pm

And boom goes the dynamite.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby meow on Fri May 10, 2013 11:46 pm

At the buzzer aaaaaaand it's good!
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby nocera on Fri May 10, 2013 11:47 pm

Wow. That may be the latest buzzer beater I've ever seen.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby Godric on Fri May 10, 2013 11:47 pm

hitchcock should be fired for not playing halak
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby slappybrown on Fri May 10, 2013 11:50 pm

mikey287 wrote:We really still think save percentage isn't a team stat at this point with modern defending...? Yeesh...

Brodeur sucks, Rask is the greatest goaltender in history and Ottawa has three of the eight best goalies in hockey...I'm sold.

It's such a beautiful game...

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post ... Y296LUp-So

for the most part, scoring chance +/- is largely following in line with shot +/-. The Pearson correlation shows some impressive statistical significance, and the conclusion is the same as its always been. Winning the shot differential battle will win you the scoring chance battle and win you hockey games; the alternative just isn't true.

The overarching point: a game can be stolen by a goaltender, and a game can be stolen by forwards shooting at a ridiculous percentage clip. But, over time, luck will wash it all out. And, shot quality -- one of the last bastions of old-time hockey -- simply doesn't play the role many wrongfully assumed, self-included, in producing consistent, winning hockey.


http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/ ... percentage

Bottom line: shot distance/location/quality is just a tiny sliver of shooting percentage (both for and against.) When you factor in the 33% regression to the mean we see in odd and even samples, shot quality accounts for just under 10% of team shooting percentage.


I'm all ears Mikey. Rebut away. Educate the unwashed masses.

EDIT: And since we both know what we you're referring to re: Broduer, here's what he actually says about him:

Martin Brodeur is an all-time great goalie, not a fraud. However, the mythologized version of him as the undisputed best goalie of all-time who holds every record imaginable is a complete construct and is the result of people elevating team-based results and statistics (e.g. Cups, wins) over better individual numbers (like save %). This site's goal is to analyze goaltenders based on their individual impact, rather than on the efforts of the skaters in front of them.
Last edited by slappybrown on Fri May 10, 2013 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby guiner on Fri May 10, 2013 11:51 pm

yowza. .2?
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby meow on Fri May 10, 2013 11:59 pm

Kings even got the ref into the celebration.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby mikey287 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:02 am

slappybrown wrote:I'm certainly not going to challenge your scouting report (nor could I, since I frankly am confused by some of what you wrote), but if he were as bad as your above analysis would make him out to be, why wouldn't his performance as measured by his statistics reflect that?


Same reason why stats don't necessarily reflect skill set for every other player in the league. I didn't say that he's bad really, just average really. If it makes you feel any better, he was t-17th in even strength save pct. among players that played half the season or more. So, that sounds pretty average, right? Call it even...?

slappybrown wrote:They're not made up numbers that have nothing to do with hockey.


No, but when they're just thrown indiscriminately into a cauldron of misunderstanding, the results aren't pretty. The narrative creates the numbers, don't let the numbers write the story for you. Keep the horse in front of the cart.

slappybrown wrote:They're a pretty good measure of how valuable you've been on a hockey rink.


They could be...it's circumstantial. Or...Tuukka Rask is the best goaltender in NHL history, right? Or maybe Alec Connell...

slappybrown wrote:Consider this: if you watched all 48 Leafs games last season, could you rank the Leafs players in order of most to least valuable?


Nope. But why would I want to and how is it relevant to the discussion at hand.

slappybrown wrote:I bet you'd be pretty wrong in several cases. But stats -- numbers -- can give you a better, more accurate picture.


Maybe. But how would I be "wrong" in this hypothetical...what's the measure of right and wrong? Is there a stat for that for me somewhere? I got lost there to be honest...

slappybrown wrote:Because you can't catalog, quantify, and remember everything you've seen. You have no idea if Reimer went .909 or .927 off the top of your head.


I do have a lot of notes on a lot of hockey that I watch. But no, I can't catalog everything I've seen. That said, I would never care if Reimer had a .850 save pct. or a .975 save pct. it would have no effect on my evaluation process...

slappybrown wrote:That's why we write things down. It helps our brains out, it doesn't hurt them.


I agree with that. I write lots of stuff down.

slappybrown wrote:Sure, you can add in things that you observed that are difficult to quantify to your overall evaluation of a player.


It would be difficult to quantify because I have limited to no interest in quantifying anything about a player. Unless there's some catch-all stat for awesomeness out there that I'm unaware of...

slappybrown wrote:But I can't stand when people say "stats" are that grossly different from "performance." They're a reasonably close approximation. They just are.


They might be. But when they lead an argument as opposed to confirming a line of thought, it's a real gray area...though, with your passion for all things statistical...Roman Cechmanek is looking for an agent that can keep him in the NHL: http://www.hockey-reference.com/players ... mro01.html That guy was Tim Thomas good!

slappybrown wrote:I know you don't like save%, but I think you're in the minority (or will soon be there because the nerds are coming).


Of course I'm in the minority. It's much easier to sort by save percentage than to actually evaluate play. I'm not shocked, but I am appalled, that save percentage gets a free pass still despite what we've seen in the last several years...
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby mikey287 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:09 am

slappybrown wrote:
mikey287 wrote:We really still think save percentage isn't a team stat at this point with modern defending...? Yeesh...

Brodeur sucks, Rask is the greatest goaltender in history and Ottawa has three of the eight best goalies in hockey...I'm sold.

It's such a beautiful game...

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post ... Y296LUp-So

for the most part, scoring chance +/- is largely following in line with shot +/-. The Pearson correlation shows some impressive statistical significance, and the conclusion is the same as its always been. Winning the shot differential battle will win you the scoring chance battle and win you hockey games; the alternative just isn't true.

The overarching point: a game can be stolen by a goaltender, and a game can be stolen by forwards shooting at a ridiculous percentage clip. But, over time, luck will wash it all out. And, shot quality -- one of the last bastions of old-time hockey -- simply doesn't play the role many wrongfully assumed, self-included, in producing consistent, winning hockey.


http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/ ... percentage

Bottom line: shot distance/location/quality is just a tiny sliver of shooting percentage (both for and against.) When you factor in the 33% regression to the mean we see in odd and even samples, shot quality accounts for just under 10% of team shooting percentage.


I'm all ears Mikey. Rebut away. Educate the unwashed masses.

EDIT: And since we both know what we you're referring to re: Broduer, here's what he actually says about him:

Martin Brodeur is an all-time great goalie, not a fraud. However, the mythologized version of him as the undisputed best goalie of all-time who holds every record imaginable is a complete construct and is the result of people elevating team-based results and statistics (e.g. Cups, wins) over better individual numbers (like save %). This site's goal is to analyze goaltenders based on their individual impact, rather than on the efforts of the skaters in front of them.


I don't consider Brodeur the best goalie of all-time.

Shed some light on this dismissal of shot quality here...I saw "distance" used...what else are they using to determine the quality of a scoring chance?
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby mikey287 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:13 am

Godric wrote:I think scouting goaltenders is probably a even bigger crapshoot as oppose to scouting skaters. Its why I disagree with using 1st round picks on prospects like Markstrom and M. Subban.


I agree generally speaking. And so does most of the scouting community.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby PensFanInDC on Sat May 11, 2013 12:13 am

Holy quotes
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby slappybrown on Sat May 11, 2013 12:13 am

Who's throwing them around indiscriminately? There are other ones that reflect favorably on his performance. The context of his team and the people in front of him do as well.

I'm not sure how it can "lead" a line of thought. Within context -- shots faced, quality of teammates, splits, sample size -- it provides the best approximation of performance. It is an output of performance. I don't see why this vexes you so. Is it shot quality? You seem to be suggesting as much but you won't say it.

Also, that larger quote wasn't really mean to be literal. Its a quote from another site in another context that I find generally applicable. I'm not saying you don't write things down. That's why I linked to it.

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Rask as some kind of trump card because he a has a high save% early in his career. Do you not think he's a good goalie? No one thinks he is the greatest of all time so that strawman is pointless. If he continues to perform like this for the next 15 years? Maybe. But that's a pretty big maybe.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby slappybrown on Sat May 11, 2013 12:19 am

mikey287 wrote:
I don't consider Brodeur the best goalie of all-time.

Shed some light on this dismissal of shot quality here...I saw "distance" used...what else are they using to determine the quality of a scoring chance?

The first link is using scoring chances as a proxy for shot quality. NHL scorekeepers generally would say a scoring chance is anything from the dots in or odd man breaks/breakaways.

Behind the net's analysis is predicated on distance from the goal.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby mikey287 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:27 am

slappybrown wrote:Who's throwing them around indiscriminately? There are other ones that reflect favorably on his performance. The context of his team and the people in front of him do as well.

I'm not sure how it can "lead" a line of thought. Within context -- shots faced, quality of teammates, splits, sample size -- it provides the best approximation of performance. It is an output of performance. I don't see why this vexes you so. Is it shot quality? You seem to be suggesting as much but you won't say it.

Also, that larger quote wasn't really mean to be literal. Its a quote from another site in another context that I find generally applicable. I'm not saying you don't write things down. That's why I linked to it.

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Rask as some kind of trump card because he a has a high save% early in his career. Do you not think he's a good goalie? No one thinks he is the greatest of all time so that strawman is pointless. If he continues to perform like this for the next 15 years? Maybe. But that's a pretty big maybe.


It "leads" a line of thought when people throw stats around to make a point.

For instance,

Me: Here's why Reimer isn't really anything special. [brief scouting report of his actual skills]
You: Here's why Reimer is good. [These 30 games are more important than these last 30 games]

There's nothing to that argument. There's nothing at all that suggests Reimer is good or bad or average. It's just numbers with little to no context. No idea how they apply to anything...

I'm sure three seasons of >.920 save pct. hockey looked plenty good to Philadelphia when they signed Ilya Bryzgalov. How is the egg that he laid so far in Philadelphia explained by individual statistics? No one in the stat community feels it to be odd that Phoenix picked up right where they left off with a cast off in Mike Smith?

Shot quality is a factor, but there's more to it than that. There's a game that's being played. Shots are more than just a one-on-one battle. It's more than shooter vs. goalie. This isn't baseball. I'm confused as to...well...I'm confused. I'll admit it, I'm just confused...

So if Rask isn't the best...who is? There must be some sort of statistical breakdown of who the best is? It should be easy, right? I don't mean to assume it's Rask, it's just when I said: "Reimer is average". I got back, "his save pct. suggests that he's better than that". So I assumed that the best save pct. wins the best goalie award.

Stats can catalog it all, so I'm genuinely curious, what's the most expensive item in the catalog...?
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby mikey287 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:29 am

slappybrown wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
I don't consider Brodeur the best goalie of all-time.

Shed some light on this dismissal of shot quality here...I saw "distance" used...what else are they using to determine the quality of a scoring chance?

The first link is using scoring chances as a proxy for shot quality. NHL scorekeepers generally would say a scoring chance is anything from the dots in or odd man breaks/breakaways.

Behind the net's analysis is predicated on distance from the goal.


Scoring chances vary from rink to rink and statistician to statistician. I don't trust them or their definition. And of course, the distance thing is just a small part of the process.

Respectfully, I'm not terribly impressed with that at all...in fact, I'm highly disappointed. Surely, they've done more regarding shot quality than that - to be quite blunt - crap...

I believe "garbage in, garbage out" would be quite apt here.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby slappybrown on Sat May 11, 2013 12:39 am

Which is why they only used away rather than home data. To cut out the statistical noise in favor of the home team. Garbage in, garbage out, but it seems your argument for the existence of shot quality is:

"Long term repeatable observable Shot quality exists because I say it exists."
Ill address your other points later this weekend.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby npv708 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:40 am

Watching the Kings/Blues game and had this thought. I think Voracek has some serious potential alongside Giroux, but I still really feel like the Flyers lost both the Carter and Richards trades. I just don't see Couturier, B. Schenn, Simmonds, and a 2nd and a 3rd as a quality return a few years out. The players they got in return are very solid players and I think all 3 have a future in the NHL, but I'm not sure they'll be able match what Richards and Carter brought, even with the reported off-ice and locker-room issues.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby Kovy27 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:40 am

Second Round is setting up as a battle of California...either SJ vs. LA or Ana vs. LA
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby npv708 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:41 am

Kovy27 wrote:Second Round is setting up as a battle of California...either SJ vs. LA or Ana vs. LA


I'd love to see Chicago vs LA and the Sharks vs. Anaheim. Those are two awesome matchups.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby Kovy27 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:42 am

npv708 wrote:Watching the Kings/Blues game and had this thought. I think Voracek has some serious potential alongside Giroux, but I still really feel like the Flyers lost both the Carter and Richards trades. I just don't see Couturier, B. Schenn, Simmonds, and a 2nd and a 3rd as a quality return a few years out. The players they got in return are very solid players and I think all 3 have a future in the NHL, but I'm not sure they'll be able match what Richards and Carter brought, even with the reported off-ice and locker-room issues.


Add Bobs for 3 draft picks. They had their goalie and traded him.
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Re: Other NHL games

Postby Kovy27 on Sat May 11, 2013 12:43 am

npv708 wrote:
Kovy27 wrote:Second Round is setting up as a battle of California...either SJ vs. LA or Ana vs. LA


I'd love to see Chicago vs LA and the Sharks vs. Anaheim. Those are two awesome matchups.


You have it backwards, it would be Chi vs SJ and ANA vs LA.
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